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What Bull Market? Bitcoin Closes 4 Consecutive Months in the Red

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Bitcoin Monthly Performance. Source: CoinGlass


The last time BTC was so deep in the red monthly was during the 2018 bear market.

It’s hard to imagine now that just a few months ago, bitcoin was riding high, investors were hopeful about ‘Uptober,’ and the bulls dominated the market.

In that not-so-distant past, the cryptocurrency was trading confidently within a six-digit price territory, and had just printed a new all-time high above $126,000. The community was full of new predictions about $150,000 or $200,000 by the end of the year, based on historical performances.

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The Monthly Closures in Red

The reality, though, was different. And brutal. Instead of going to those levels, BTC nosedived on October 10/11 in a $19B-wipeout, and the trend turned for the worse as the cryptocurrency was never actually able to recover from that crash. In fact, bitcoin ended 2025 in the red for the first time in a post-halving year.

2026 began with more hopes of a rebound and a renewed run, but they were halted mid-month when BTC was stopped at $95,000 and driven south hard. It was first pushed below $90,000, but that was just the beginning as the losses kept coming.

It dumped to $81,000 during last week, bounced off to $84,000, only to be rejected on Saturday. In the span of just several hours, bitcoin’s calamity worsened, and it slumped to roughly $75,000, leaving billions worth of liquidations. This meant that it had lost $20,000 in less than two weeks.

Data from CoinGlass shows that bitcoin closed January with a 10.17% loss, even though it rebounded slightly from that low. This made it the fourth consecutive month closed in the red and the worst since November.

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Bitcoin Monthly Performance. Source: CoinGlass
Bitcoin Monthly Performance. Source: CoinGlass

What Bull Market?

Most crypto analysts have been split since October on whether the ongoing market phase is actually a bull market. But the data from above clearly demonstrates that BTC’s behavior is more in line with how it performs during bear cycles. After all, the last time it had four or more consecutive months in the red was at the end of 2018 and beginning of 2019.

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At the time, BTC was digging new lows time and time again, before it finally bottomed in January after the sixth month in the red in a row. If history is to repeat itself now, the cryptocurrency has more room for losses before it finally stages a notable recovery as it did seven years ago.

Nevertheless, the light at the end of the tunnel shows that bitcoin might be due for a more favorable Q2 and Q3 if we rely on history. If we don’t, good news could come as soon as February, as most analysts agree that the four-year cycle has been broken and BTC now operates in a different manner.

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Crypto World

NYSE Exchanges Remove Cap Limiting Crypto Options

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NYSE Exchanges Remove Cap Limiting Crypto Options

Two New York Stock Exchange-affiliated exchanges have removed the 25,000 contract position limit on options tied to 11 crypto exchange-traded funds.

NYSE Arca and NYSE American each filed three rule changes in the Federal Register on March 10 to remove contract position limits and price discovery restrictions for options linked to Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) ETFs listed on their exchanges.

These were acknowledged by the Securities and Exchange Commission on Sunday, with the SEC waiving the standard 30-day waiting period for both sets of proposed rule changes, meaning they are now in effect.

11 crypto ETFs are impacted by the options rules changes on NYSE Arca and NYSE American. Source: SEC

The limits were imposed when crypto ETF options first started trading in November 2024. Limits of this nature are typically imposed to prevent market manipulation and volatility. T

The removal of those limits now puts them closer to how other commodity ETF options are treated, and gives institutions greater trading flexibility while also potentially boosting liquidity and making it easier to enter and exit positions. 

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It also allows the crypto options to be traded as FLEX options, which include customizable terms such as non-standard strike prices, expiration dates and exercise styles.

Related: Scaramucci says BTC’s 4-year cycle still in play, forecasts rise in Q4 

A total of 11 crypto ETF options are affected by the rule changes, including BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) and ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB).

Bitcoin and Ether ETFs issued by Bitwise and Grayscale are also affected.

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