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Ray Dalio says ‘there is only one gold’ even as bitcoin holds up better during Iran crisis

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Ray Dalio says ‘there is only one gold’ even as bitcoin holds up better during Iran crisis

Ray Dalio picked an interesting week to trash bitcoin.

The Bridgewater Associates founder said on the popular All-In Podcast on Tuesday that investors should stop comparing bitcoin to gold, arguing that the largest cryptocurrency lacks central bank support, has no privacy, and faces long-term threats from quantum computing.

“There is only one gold,” Dalio said. “Gold is the most established money” and the second-largest reserve currency held by central banks.

The timing undermined the thesis, however. On the day Dalio made those comments, gold dropped $168 to $5,128, a 3% decline, while bitcoin fell just 0.7% to $68,700. Five days into the U.S.-Iran war, the asset Dalio prefers was getting hit harder by exactly the kind of crisis he says it’s supposed to protect against.

The decoupling isn’t new. Bitcoin and gold moved together from July through early October, until the broader crypto crash in October wiped out $20 billion in leveraged positions. Since then the two assets have gone in opposite directions. Bitcoin is down over 45% from its October peak. Gold rallied 30% to over $5,100 in the same period.

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Gold spiked on Saturday’s initial strikes, then gave back those gains as the conflict widened and oil disruption became the dominant concern. Bitcoin sold off on Saturday, bounced on Sunday after Iran supreme leader Khamenei’s death, got rejected at $70,000 on Tuesday, and has since settled in the mid-$67,000s.

That shows neither asset has fully operated as a safe haven this week. Both have been volatile. Bitcoin has just been less volatile, which isn’t the outcome Dalio’s framework predicts.

Dalio’s specific criticisms aren’t new either. He flagged bitcoin’s transparency, noting that “any transaction can be monitored and directly, perhaps, controlled.” He questioned whether central banks would ever accumulate an asset that runs on a public ledger. And he raised quantum computing as a longer-term existential risk.

He’s not entirely bearish. Dalio holds roughly 1% of his portfolio in bitcoin for diversification and recommended a 15% allocation to bitcoin or gold in July, calling it the “best return-to-risk ratio” given America’s debt trajectory.

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Dalio warned last month that the “World Order” led by the U.S. had “broken down” and that investors needed to rethink how they protect wealth. Whether gold is still the only prescription is the part the market is actively debating, and this week’s price action hasn’t made his case any easier to make.

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Crypto World

FATF Highlights Risks in Stablecoin P2P Transfers via Self-Custody Wallets

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FATF Highlights Risks in Stablecoin P2P Transfers via Self-Custody Wallets

Peer-to-peer transfers made through self-custody crypto wallets are a key weak point in the stablecoin ecosystem because they can take place without a regulated intermediary, the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) said in a new report urging countries to tighten oversight as stablecoins spread into payments and cross-border transfers.

In its targeted report on stablecoins, unhosted wallets and P2P transactions, the global anti-money laundering watchdog said transactions conducted directly between users through unhosted wallets can occur without regulated intermediaries such as exchanges or custodians.

The FATF said this structure can create gaps in Anti-Money Laundering (AML) oversight because the transactions occur outside entities required to monitor activity and report suspicious transfers. The report highlighted growing regulatory attention on stablecoins as their use expands across trading, payments and cross-border transfers. 

The watchdog called on jurisdictions to assess the risks created by stablecoin arrangements and apply “proportionate” mitigation measures, which can include enhanced monitoring when self-custody wallets interact with regulated platforms and clearer AML and counterterrorism financing obligations for entities involved in issuing and distributing stablecoins.

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