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Why bitcoin’s quantum fears will pass just like the climate panic

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Aave Price vs Valuation chart

Welcome to our institutional newsletter, Crypto Long & Short. This week:

  • Martin Gaspar on how bitcoin looks to overcome quantum fears, echoing past climate backlash
  • Top headlines institutions should pay attention to by Francisco Rodrigues
  • Aave’s revenue multiples hit 2024 lows despite higher prices in Chart of the Week

Thanks for joining us!

-Alexandra Levis


Expert Insights

Why bitcoin’s quantum fears will pass just like the climate panic

By Martin Gaspar, senior crypto market strategist, FalconX

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Quantum has become a major theme for crypto the past few months, in part because of technological developments in that space, but also as investors look for potential culprits of the stagnation in crypto prices post October. Quantum risk may come across as an existential threat to bitcoin given the potential for bad actors to crack legacy accounts such as Satoshi’s. However, a clearer understanding of the threat and increasing industry focus on solutions are driving toward a positive resolution.

There are striking parallels to the concerns over the energy use and climate impact of Bitcoin’s Proof of Work (PoW) mining that dominated headlines in 2021. Those felt existential too, as the headline risk made BTC socially unacceptable. Although industry insiders knew climate concerns were misguided (compared to other industries, such as tech’s data centers, BTC’s energy footprint is low), fears perpetuated, culminating with Tesla dropping BTC as a payment option because of climate risk. At the time, Elon Musk’s support for BTC was a large driver of sentiment, so this action startled the market. If forward-thinking Elon thought the issue was meaningful enough to pull his support of BTC, more conservative groups could seek to ban it or otherwise stifle BTC adoption. From an investor standpoint, why would you buy into an asset with such risk? This question resonates today and is especially pertinent as lower crypto prices weigh on sentiment.

The good news is that the industry can overcome this. In 2021, it took industry leader Strategy taking initiative to work with BTC miners to publish stats on the renewable mix of their energy consumption. While it was no secret to the crypto community that BTC miners naturally seek the lowest cost of energy, which is often renewables, compiling hard data helped convince naysayers. The industry was able to regain credibility to help dispel concerns.

We are seeing the same play out as industry stalwarts come together to publish facts around quantum risk. Coinbase recently established a quantum computing and blockchain working group, which will help issue recommendations for industry participants to protect against quantum risks and provide analysis on quantum breakthroughs. Furthermore, on February 5, as BTC was sharply selling off towards $60,000, Strategy announced a quantum security program during its earnings call, which may have helped stem further selling. It aims to coordinate with the “global cyber, crypto, and bitcoin security community” to help with Bitcoin’s quantum transition.

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Concurrently, several startups are working on developing post-quantum technology for blockchains, such as Project Eleven and BTQ Technologies. These developments indicate that the crypto community is rapidly working towards solutions and should help alleviate near-term concerns.

BTC stands to turn the page through its proactive efforts to dispel quantum hysteria. Once the industry issues clear facts and a plausible plan, this issue will come to pass, just like the PoW climate overhang from years past.


Headlines of the Week

Francisco Rodrigues

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Geopolitical risks have shown again this week that liquidity in the cryptocurrency space means investors head for the exits as soon as they’re able to. The renewed Middle East conflict has led to major outflows from Iran, while in the U.S. investors have also been backing down. Still, builders appear to be unphased.


Chart of the Week

Aave’s revenue multiples hit 2024 lows despite higher prices

Aave is currently experiencing a fundamental valuation reset: while the token price remains higher than its 2024 lows, the FDV/annual revenue ratio has collapsed back to those levels (<20x), indicating the protocol is generating significantly more revenue relative to its market cap than it did during the speculative peaks of 2025. This decoupling suggests the market is heavily discounting Aave’s current earnings power, likely pricing in the execution risk following the narrow March 1 passage of the “Aave Will Win” proposal and the high-profile exit of core developer BGD Labs.

Aave Price vs Valuation chart

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Looking for more? Receive the latest crypto news from coindesk.com and explore our robust Data & Indices offerings by visiting coindesk.com/institutions.


Note: The views expressed in this column are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of CoinDesk, Inc., CoinDesk Indices or its owners and affiliates.

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Crypto World

Bitcoin Bulls Strike Back But $78K May Remain Resistance

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Bitcoin Bulls Strike Back But $78K May Remain Resistance

Key takeaways:

  • Derivatives and onchain data show a lack of bullish conviction, as 43% of Bitcoin holders remain at a loss despite recent price gains.

  • Surging AI energy demand is squeezing miner profits to record lows, forcing major listed firms to offload BTC and pivot to computing.

  • Traders face a psychological hurdle at $76,000, the average cost basis for major corporate holders like Strategy.

Bitcoin (BTC) surged to a four-week high on Wednesday, potentially clearing a path for a recovery toward the $78,700 monthly close recorded in January. Despite a 22% rally from the $60,000 local bottom on Feb. 6, several onchain and derivatives metrics suggest bears remain comfortable. 

Demand for downside protection through Bitcoin options continues to dominate the market.

BTC 30-day options skew (put-call) at Deribit. Source: Laevitas.ch

Put (sell) options recently traded at a 10% premium relative to equivalent call (buy) instruments. In neutral market conditions, this indicator typically ranges between -6% and 6%, a level last observed in mid-January when Bitcoin traded near $95,000. 

Professional traders appear to fear further downside, while demand for bullish BTC futures remains stagnant; the annualized premium, or basis rate, currently sits below the neutral 5% threshold.

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The weakness in Bitcoin derivatives reflects the month-long consolidation following the 32% crash during the first week of February. However, the lack of conviction from bulls even as prices move above $73,000 suggests a deeper hesitation. This cautious mood likely comes from the fact that a significant portion of holders are still stuck in the red.

Percentage of circulating supply in profit, estimate. Source: Glassnode

Currently, 43% of the supply is held at a loss based on the price coins last moved, according to Glassnode data. This share of holders sustaining losses spiked from 30% when Bitcoin traded at $90,000 in late January. Traders fear that investors sitting on these losses will gradually exit their positions as the price recovers, creating persistent overhead sell pressure that could cap further gains.

Another source of concern stems from the Bitcoin mining sector, which has faced significant pressure due to the exponential growth in artificial intelligence demand. Rising energy costs and declining demand for the Bitcoin blockchain registry have pushed miner profitability toward all-time lows. Several major listed mining firms have pivoted toward AI computing, offloading their Bitcoin holdings in the process.

Expected value of 1 TH/second of hashing power per day. Source: HashRateIndex

The Bitcoin Hashprice index, which measures the expected daily value of one terahash per second of hashing power, plummeted to $30 on Tuesday, down from $39 three months ago. Investors fear that miners may transition into net sellers after a prolonged period of accumulation. 

Mining companies that previously maintained a Bitcoin strategic reserve are now reportedly eyeing more profitable opportunities in alternative high-performance computing sectors.

Related: MARA exec pushes back on Bitcoin treasury sell-off narrative

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Strategy’s $76,000 cost basis could be the turning point for Bitcoin momentum

Strategy (MSTR US) remains the primary example of a Bitcoin-centered balance sheet strategy. After purchasing 720,737 BTC since its initial deployment in August 2020, the company faced scrutiny as Bitcoin dropped below its average acquisition price of approximately $76,000. 

Other publicly traded entities, including Metaplanet (3350 JP) and Twenty One Capital (XXI US), have encountered similar valuation challenges during the current bear market conditions.

Bitcoin strategic reserve acquisitions by MSTR. Source: Strategy

While Strategy does not face imminent liquidation risks or a lack of cash for interest payments on yield-bearing assets like STRC, bears recognize that prices above the Bitcoin cost basis incentivize stock issuance without diluting current holders. 

Essentially, market participants looking to suppress the price have strong incentives to keep Bitcoin pegged below $76,000. Therefore, a recovery toward $78,700 may take longer than expected, though momentum could shift in favor of bulls once that key level is breached.