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Bitcoin outperforms gold and oil in first days of US-Iran war

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Bitcoin outperforms gold and oil in first days of US-Iran war

Four days into the onset of the US-Israeli war with Iran, bitcoin (BTC) has outperformed many major asset classes, including commodities that were supposed to shine in exactly this scenario.

Since Donald Trump authorized Operation Epic Fury’s opening airstrikes at 1:15am New York time on February 28, BTC has surged 12.1% from $65,492 to $73,419 at time of writing.

Crude oil, the one asset with an obviously bullish wartime supply reduction, gained a less impressive 10.4% from $67.29 to $74.31 per barrel.

Gold has actually dropped 3% since the onset of war despite an initial safe-haven spike.

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Price comparison of BTC (orange) and gold (blue) since 1:15am New York time on Saturday.

Silver entirely retraced a brief spike on war fears and is now down 10.2% after a rollercoaster ride alongside gold and other precious metals.

Easy to beat, the S&P 500 Index flatlined at -0.1%.

A weekend of relative strength amid a bad year

Nvidia, the artificial intelligence (AI) darling that once moved markets by itself and gained signed assurance from the Pentagon that OpenAI would continue to generate plenty of demand for its chips, managed to rally a modest 2.8%. 

Even adjusting that 2.8% by 3.1x to account for Nvidia’s larger-than-BTC market cap, it still underperformed the world’s largest crypto by 340 basis points.

The disappointment from precious metals holders is evident. As the US military made obvious movements across the Atlantic into the Gulf states last week, gold and silver steadily ticked higher in textbook fashion — then spent the next three days bleeding out as the dollar strengthened and inflation fears displaced geopolitical hedging.

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While BTC investors gained, owners of non-digital hard monies over the last week watched an initial pop turn into a net loss.

Of course, the numbers above are since the proper onset of war. Year-to-date figures are distinct.

Over this longer time frame, BTC has lost 16% while gold has rallied 18%. As usual, there are two sides to every story.

An even better weekend performer than oil

Although the outperformance of BTC raises eyebrows, crude oil’s gain makes intuitive sense. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps threatened the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint near Iran through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil transits daily. 

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Tanker vessel traffic through the strait dropped roughly 81% since the war began, as insurers pulled war risk coverage and shippers avoided the strait for legitimate fears of human life. 

Tanker rates in the area hit all-time highs. Brent initially spiked 13% to $82 before settling a bit lower. Barclays analysts warned of $100 per barrel if the blockade holds, though the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries Plus announced 206,000 barrels per day in additional output to soften the supply crunch.

Still, BTC outperformed oil during the year’s biggest war.

Read more: CHART: Bitcoin has lost all of its gains since Trump’s election

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AI agrees: BTC is the trade

Interestingly, a recent study has highlighted a new macro tailwind for BTC that could drive demand in 2026.

Researchers published results from 9,072 experiments across 36 frontier AI models and found that AI agents chose BTC 48% of the time when selecting an optimal monetary asset.

For store-of-value use cases specifically, 79% picked BTC. Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.5, one of the world’s most-used models, chose BTC 91% of the time.

Conventional wisdom was that war favors gold, oil, and the dollar. Four days of live data say otherwise. BTC absorbed the initial shock, recovered faster than many traditional safe havens, and now tops leaderboards of trillion-dollar assets since the early morning hours of Saturday.

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Whether the Strait of Hormuz reopens next week or next year, this was the week BTC became an interesting crisis asset performer.

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Sui launches native USDsui stablecoin for payments and DeFi

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Binance holds nearly 87% of USD1 stablecoin supply: Forbes 

The Sui Foundation has introduced USDsui, a native stablecoin built to power digital payments and decentralized finance across the Sui network.

Summary

  • Sui Foundation and Bridge launched USDsui on mainnet on March 4, 2026.
  • The stablecoin is issued through Stripe’s infrastructure and supports DeFi and cross-border payments.
  • Sui processed over $111B in stablecoin transfers in January 2026, supporting large-scale adoption.

The token went live on mainnet on March 4, 2026. USDsui is issued through Bridge, a subsidiary of Stripe, using its Open Issuance platform.

The platform offers robust enterprise controls and built-in compliance features, enabling institutions to gain better oversight. At launch, several popular decentralized finance apps and Sui (SUI) wallets were integrated with USDsui, making it easily accessible.

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Built for high-volume payments

USDsui was designed for speed and efficiency, so transactions settle quickly with low, predictable fees. Companies and developers can access on-chain liquidity directly, which helps them build scalable financial and payment tools.

Transactions are kept within the Sui network, which is expected to simplify peer-to-peer payments, cross-border transfers, and remittances. Users can move value natively within the ecosystem instead of relying on third-party stablecoins.

Sui has been making waves due to its scalability and speed. In January 2026 alone, the network handled over $111 billion in stablecoin transactions, indicating the growing demand for a reliable payment system on Sui.

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Meanwhile, Bridge’s issuance framework is streamlining the launch of compliant digital assets. This approach allows stablecoins to go live faster while still adhering to established regulatory guidelines.

Growing adoption in DeFi and institutions

Momentum around USDsui is building. Across several prominent DeFi protocols on Sui, the stablecoin is now live for lending, trading, and liquidity provision. To jumpstart activity, several platforms have introduced incentive programs designed to attract early users and deepen liquidity.

Sui has also attracted more institutional interest. Products connected to the network have been introduced by investment firms such as Bitwise Asset Management, Franklin Templeton, Grayscale Investments, and VanEck. Traditional investor access was further expanded when U.S.-listed Sui staking ETFs started trading in February 2026.

With steady network growth, institutional-grade infrastructure, and rising investor participation, USDsui is positioned to play a central role in payments and settlement on Sui. Over time, it may serve as a bridge between traditional finance and on-chain markets.

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The crypto crowd is so convinced this rally is a fakeout, it might trigger short squeeze

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Potential bull trap or breakout? (TradingView)

Bitcoin pushed above $73,000 this week, reclaiming a key psychological level that had capped the market for weeks. Yet the breakout has been met with an unusual reaction across crypto markets: widespread skepticism.

Many traders are warning that the move could become a classic bull trap — a brief breakout that lures in late buyers before reversing lower. Analysts have pointed to heavy overhead supply and positioning in derivatives markets as potential risks, with some suggesting a rally into the $72,000–$76,000 range could attract sellers rather than confirm a sustained recovery.

The caution stems partly from recent history. Earlier this year, Bitcoin appeared to break out of a consolidation range, only to reverse violently. The move trapped momentum traders and triggered a cascade of liquidations as the price plunged from around $98,000 to roughly $60,000 within two weeks — a reminder of how quickly sentiment can flip in crypto.

Potential bull trap or breakout? (TradingView)
Potential bull trap or breakout? (TradingView)

But the current setup may present a paradox: the trade has become crowded on the bearish side.

Across crypto Twitter, analysts and chartists are widely calling for a bull trap. That consensus itself raises the possibility of the opposite outcome — a squeeze higher that forces short sellers to cover. In leveraged markets, strong directional agreement often creates the liquidity needed for moves in the other direction.

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Macro uncertainty could also complicate the outlook. Geopolitical tensions following the Iran conflict have already pushed gold higher and lifted oil price expectations, while some Asian equity markets have shown signs of stress. Radu Tunaru, professor of finance and risk management at Henley Business School, argues geopolitical shocks have historically played a role in major market sell-offs. He points to the 1987 Black Monday crash, which he believes was partly triggered by U.S.–Iran tensions that first rattled Asian markets before spreading globally.

For now, Bitcoin’s breakout above $73,000 has revived bullish momentum — but price action over the coming days will determine whether a bottom is truly in or if this is an accurately predicted bull trap.

To regain a bullish macro structure, bitcoin needs to trade back into the $98,000 region to snap the grueling lower high formed by the previous bull trap in January.

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Ray Dalio Dismisses Bitcoin’s Safe-Haven Narrative, Rejects Comparisons to Gold

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Ray Dalio Dismisses Bitcoin’s Safe-Haven Narrative, Rejects Comparisons to Gold


According to Dalio, there are important differentiating characteristics between bitcoin and gold, and these traits are pushing institutions to the latter.

The billionaire investor and founder of the leading hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates, Ray Dalio, has once again criticized bitcoin (BTC). This time, Dalio rejected comparisons between the cryptocurrency and gold, stripping the digital asset of its safe-haven narrative.

During an interview with the All-In Podcast, the Bridgewater founder insisted that BTC has not played the role of a safe-haven like gold. He accepted that bitcoin has been receiving a lot of attention as a form of money but faces long-term threats. Dalio’s comments come as financial assets react to geopolitical tensions amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran crisis.

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Dalio Rejects BTC Comparisons to Gold

According to Dalio, there are important differentiating characteristics between bitcoin and gold. The former lacks privacy; transactions can be monitored and indirectly controlled by entities. Such qualities, in the billionaire’s opinion, would make central banks and large institutions reluctant to buy and hold it.

On the other hand, these institutions are consistently buying and holding gold because the precious metal is widely considered a store of value and an inflation hedge. Dalio highlighted that the precious metal is not an asset that is speculated on, contrary to what most people have come to believe. In fact, he mentioned that gold is the most established form of money and the second-largest reserve currency held by central banks.

Moreover, gold does not face the same threats as Bitcoin. Dalio mentioned growing concerns about the possible effects of quantum computing on the Bitcoin network. So, despite getting a lot of attention, especially from individuals, and being considered as alternative money, bitcoin still has a relatively small and controlled market in comparison to gold.

It is worth noting that Dalio has developed some kind of love-hate relationship with BTC over the years. Once a critic, the investor began to embrace the cryptocurrency in 2021 and even gained exposure to it. Still, he believes gold is the ultimate financial asset, and BTC does not come close.

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Gold Hit Heavier By U.S.-Iran Conflict

Despite Dalio dismissing bitcoin’s safe-haven narrative, the digital asset has performed relatively well since the U.S.-Iran conflict began. On March 3, the day Dalio made these remarks, gold lost 6% during trading hours, falling from $5,377 to $5,039, according to TradingView data. BTC, on the other hand, fell by a mere 3.7% over the same timeframe.

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Comparing the price movements of both assets on that day directly challenges Dalio’s statements, as gold was more affected by the very crisis it is supposed to shield investors from.

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Trump Sends Pro-Bitcoin Fed Chair Nomination to the Senate

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Federal Reserve, Politics, Government, Senate, Donald Trump

The US Senate will soon vote on Donald Trump’s nominee to head the US Federal Reserve after the president picked Kevin Warsh, who has previously expressed pro-Bitcoin views, to replace Fed chair Jerome Powell.

In a Wednesday notice, the White House said that Trump had sent Warsh’s nomination to the Senate to be chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve for a term of four years, and as a Fed governor for 14 years. The president had previously taken to social media to announce Warsh was his pick to replace Powell, whose term as chair ends in May but may stay on as a Fed governor until 2028.

Federal Reserve, Politics, Government, Senate, Donald Trump
Kevin Warsh. Source: Hoover Institution

Warsh served as a Fed governor under former US Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama from 2006 to 2011. He went on to become a Shepard Family Distinguished Visiting Fellow in Economics at the Hoover Institution of Stanford University. 

The prospective Fed chair has made many public statements favoring Bitcoin (BTC) adoption. In a January 2021 interview with CNBC’s Squawk Box, he said “if Bitcoin never existed gold would be rallying even more right now, but I guess if you are under forty, bitcoin is your new gold.” In a 2025 interview with the Hoover Institution, Warsh said the cryptocurrency “could provide market discipline, or […] could tell the world that things need to be fixed.” 

“Bitcoin does not make me nervous,” said Warsh. “I can hearken back to a dinner I had here in 2011 with […] Marc Andreessen, who showed me the white paper […] I wish I had understood as clearly as he did how transformative Bitcoin and this new technology would be. Bitcoin doesn’t trouble me. I think of it as an important asset that can help inform policymakers when they’re doing things right and wrong.”

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Related: Trump met Coinbase CEO before slamming banks over crypto bill: Report

Powell’s term as chair ends on May 15, while his term as a Fed governor ends on Jan. 31, 2028. Although Trump has previously announced threats to fire the Fed chair, he is expected to finish his term.

It was unclear at the time of publication when the Senate would consider Warsh’s nomination, but he could face opposition from many Democratic lawmakers. Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said in January that Republican lawmakers “must not move Mr. Warsh’s nomination forward,” given Trump’s attempts to “cannibalize the Federal Reserve to eliminate its independence.”

“[Warsh] must make clear that he would keep the Fed independent and free from Donald Trump’s bullying, or else, he must not be confirmed,” said Schumer.

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CFTC still lacks nominations for leadership

Although Trump officially announced his pick as Fed chair, as of Wednesday the president had not sent any additional nominations to the Senate to staff the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

Michael Selig, who was confirmed as CFTC chair in December, remains the sole leader at the financial regulator, which normally has five commissioners. The agency is expected to have additional oversight and regulatory power over digital assets should a market structure bill moving through the Senate become law.

Magazine: Bitcoin may face hard fork over any attempt to freeze Satoshi’s coins

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