Crypto World
Bitcoin price analysis ahead of US non-farm payrolls data
Bitcoin price held steady on Thursday as investors focused on the upcoming US non-farm payrolls data scheduled for Friday this week.
Summary
- Bitcoin price moved to a local bull market after rising by 20% from the year-to-date low.
- The rally happened amid hopes of talks between the US and Iran on ending the war.
- The US will publish the latest non-farm payrolls data on Friday.
Bitcoin (BTC) token was trading at $72,450, up by 20% from its lowest level this year, meaning it has moved into a local bull market.
The recent rebound started on Wednesday after reports that Iran had reached out to the Americans to end the war. Still, the odds of a ceasefire happening in the near term are slim as the three sides commit to fighting. This explains why Brent and West Texas Intermediate jumped to $84.15 and $78.
Bitcoin price will next react to the upcoming US non-farm payrolls data, which will come out on Friday. Economists polls by Reuters expect the upcoming report to show that the labor market softened in February.
The average estimate is that the economy created 70k jobs, much lower than the 110k it created in January. They also expect the report to reveal that the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.3%.
These numbers are important as the Federal Open Market Committee will meet on March 17 and 18. Economists believe that the bank will leave rates unchanged between 3.50% and 3.75%.
A weak NFP report may push some Fed officials to support a rate cut. In a statement on Wednesday, Stephen Miran maintained that the bank should slash rates, citing the jobs market.Fed officials are concerned about inflation, which may accelerate because of the ongoing war in the Middle East.
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies experience more demand when the Fed is cutting interest rates.
Bitcoin price forecast: Technical analysis
BTC price has staged a comeback recently, moving from the year-to-date low of $60,000 to $72,700. It has moved above the crucial resistance level at $71,000, its highest level on February 15. This price was also the neckline of the inverted head-and-shoulders pattern.
The coin has already flipped the Supertrend indicator from red to green and moved above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average.
It is also hovering near the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement level, which is drawn by connecting the all-time high and the lowest level this year.
The most likely Bitcoin price prediction is bullish, with the key target being the psychological level at $80,000. On the flip side, a drop below the key support level at $70,000 will cancel the bullish outlook.
The euphoric altcoin seasons where almost every cryptocurrency rises across the market are probably not coming back, says Bitwise investment chief Matt Hougan.
“I think that game is over. I think we’ll see a non-traditional altcoin season,” Hougan said in an interview on Wednesday. “An altcoin season that rewards assets with real-world traction and real-world application.”
“I don’t think we’ll see the sort of rising tide lifts all buckets where you rotate from Bitcoin to ETH to DeFi to NFT pictures of rocks.”
Hougan said future altcoin seasons could instead see the market “rerate” certain tokens, particularly those tied to what he described as “huge businesses.”
Altcoin season likely to be “more differentiated”
“I just think it’ll be more differentiated than previous altcoin seasons,” Hougan said.
Crypto traders typically expect, based on past cycles, that Bitcoin (BTC) would first reach new all-time highs, then capital will rotate into Ether (ETH) and then into altcoins, kicking off altcoin season.
As for Bitcoin, which recently fell as low as $60,000 in February, Hougan said it was “starting to bottom and trend higher.” Bitcoin is trading at $70,237 at the time of publication, according to CoinMarketCap.
Altcoin season debate continues
The altcoin season debate has divided the crypto industry, with crypto analyst Matthew Hyland saying in November that traders should have confidence in an altcoin season arriving soon, citing the Bitcoin dominance chart as “bearish for many weeks.”
Related: 38% of altcoins near all-time lows, worse than FTX crash: Analyst
In December, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes said, “There is always an altcoin season happening.”
“[If you’re] always saying altcoin season isn’t there, [it’s] because you didn’t own what went up,” Hayes said.
Crypto sentiment platform Santiment said on Wednesday that mentions of altcoins on social media reached their lowest level in two years, while indicators suggest investors are focusing on Bitcoin.
Magazine: Bitcoin may face hard fork over any attempt to freeze Satoshi’s coins
TLDR:
- Stablecoin yield rules now dominate crypto market structure negotiations in the U.S. Senate.
- Coinbase withdrew support after amendments restricted stablecoin reward programs earlier this year.
- Senator Thom Tillis now holds a key vote as Senate Republicans attempt to advance the bill.
- DeFi provisions remain unresolved while lawmakers focus on stablecoin reward language.
The push to advance a U.S. crypto market structure bill faces delays as lawmakers debate stablecoin yield rules.
Discussions intensified this week after fresh legislative language circulated among key Senate offices. Negotiations now center on how crypto firms handle rewards linked to stablecoins.
The outcome could determine whether the Senate Banking Committee resumes work on the bill later this month.
Crypto Market Structure Talks Focus on Stablecoin Yield
The stablecoin yield debate now sits at the center of crypto market structure negotiations in Washington.
According to reporting shared by journalist Eleanor Terrett on X, lawmakers continue discussions after weeks of industry lobbying. The White House recently circulated draft legislative text to Senator Thom Tillis’ office.
The document followed negotiations between banking groups and crypto firms during the past month. Those talks attempted to narrow disagreements over rewards tied to stablecoin products.
Senator Tillis previously raised concerns about stablecoin yield provisions earlier this year. In January, amendments linked to him and Senator Angela Alsobrooks restricted the scope of such rewards.
Those changes later prompted Coinbase to withdraw support for the bill. The company cited the amendments among several concerns about the proposal.
Recent meetings between Tillis’ staff, industry representatives, and White House officials now seek a workable compromise. Discussions reportedly continue as both sides adjust the language.
Digital Chamber CEO Cody Carbone said conversations with Tillis have remained constructive. Industry groups expect negotiations to focus on rules both banks and crypto firms can accept.
DeFi Issues and Committee Timeline Still Unresolved
While yield dominates debate, other crypto market structure provisions remain unresolved.
Industry participants told Terrett the stablecoin issue now consumes most attention in negotiations. As a result, discussions around decentralized finance rules have slowed.
Some DeFi stakeholders say Senate Democrats recently renewed focus on those outstanding sections. They want clarity on how decentralized protocols fall under the proposed regulatory framework.
Ethics concerns also remain part of the debate inside the Senate Banking Committee. Several Democratic lawmakers continue to review potential conflicts related to digital asset policy.
Despite these hurdles, lawmakers still aim to restart the legislative process soon. Committee leaders hope to reschedule a markup once stablecoin reward language stabilizes.
The bill could still advance along party lines if Republican support holds. However, Senator Tillis’ position remains central if Democrats decline to back the measure.
Industry groups continue pushing for a vote before delays push negotiations deeper into the year. Some participants now watch the next three weeks for movement on stablecoin yield language.
Trade groups told Terrett they remain cautiously optimistic about progress before late March. A revised draft could return to the Senate Banking Committee if talks advance
The crypto market pulled back on Friday following a strong rebound on Thursday.
Summary
- The crypto market backpedalled on part of its recent gains after BTC faced rejection at $74K.
- Concerns around a major options expiry event and capital rotation to traditional safe-haven assets have also suppressed demand for risk assets.
After rallying nearly 5.5% over the past day, the global crypto market capitalization once again retracted, dropping 2% to $2.48 trillion on Friday, March 6. Bitcoin (BTC) was down 1.8% in the daily timeframe, while Ethereum (ETH) posted losses of 1.3%. Other major cryptocurrencies, such as BNB (BNB), XRP (XRP), and Solana (SOL), also faced similar losses as the broader market cooled.
As crypto prices fell, it triggered the liquidation of traders with highly leveraged bullish positions across leveraged markets. Data from CoinGlass shows that nearly $167.5 million of the total $252 million liquidations that took place in the past 24 hours came from long positions.
Amidst the market drop, the crypto fear and greed index fell by 4 points to 18, a sign that risk-on sentiment among investors seems to be evaporating.
The crypto market fell after Bitcoin faced rejection at $74,000 on Thursday after rallying over 16% in the past 5 days. This came as investors booked profits, which is quite common after an asset has rallied over multiple days.
Bitcoin’s rejection and successive drop caught highly leveraged traders off guard, triggering a cascade in liquidations which then rippled off to other altcoins in the leveraged markets.
Multiple analysts note that the rejection has left BTC vulnerable to more downside and has dampened the short term outlook for the entire sector.
$2.68 billion options expiry today
Another key reason why the market slipped lower today is fears surrounding a $2.68 billion options expiry across the crypto market on the Deribit exchange at 8:00 a.m. UTC.
Notably, around 32,000 Bitcoin contracts with a notional value of $2.2 billion are set to expire with the max pain price at $69,000. Concurrently, Ethereum options worth $397 million will also settle today.
Such a massive options expiry event typically leads to significant price volatility as traders adjust or close out their positions. The open interest of the total crypto market has dropped 4.76% over the past 24 hours, suggesting traders seem to be unwinding their bets ahead of the potential price swings.
Rising energy prices spark rotation to traditional safe-haven assets
The crypto market also tanked amid rising energy prices after Iran’s suspected attack on U.S. oil ships around the port of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted global supply chains.
Investors fear that rising crude oil and gas prices due to the conflict could reignite inflation. Consequently, they have turned risk-averse as they rotate capital towards traditional safe-haven assets such as gold, which has performed significantly better during these uncertain times.
Stalled crypto legislation
Investor sentiment was also hurt after progress on the CLARITY Act, a highly anticipated U.S. market structure bill, stalled once again.
While U.S. President Donald Trump has called for a swift implementation of the framework, the landmark bill hit a new impasse after leading banking groups rejected a White House compromise for the bill, citing risks to traditional institutions.
The delay has cast severe doubt on whether the CLARITY Act can pass before the 2026 summer recess, removing a major regulatory tailwind for the industry.
Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.
TLDR:
- The Fed, OCC, and FDIC confirmed tokenized securities get identical capital treatment to traditional assets at U.S. banks.
- Banks can now use tokenized stocks and bonds as loan collateral under the same rules as conventional securities.
- The guidance covers both public blockchains like Ethereum and private permissioned networks without distinction.
- Derivatives tied to tokenized assets also receive standard regulatory treatment, expanding the scope significantly.
U.S. banking regulators have issued landmark joint guidance clearing banks to hold tokenized securities under the same rules as conventional financial assets.
The Federal Reserve, Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation released the coordinated announcement together.
It confirms that a tokenized stock, bond, or other asset carries identical capital treatment to its off-chain equivalent. The move removes a regulatory barrier that major financial institutions had cited for years as a reason to stay off blockchain rails.
Banks Can Now Use Tokenized Assets as Standard Collateral
The guidance covers three core operational changes for U.S. banks.
First, tokenized securities are now eligible collateral for loans, treated identically to traditional stocks or bonds. Second, the rules apply regardless of whether the token sits on a public blockchain like Ethereum or a private permissioned network.
Third, financial derivatives linked to tokenized assets receive the same treatment as conventional derivatives.
That last point carries significant weight. Derivatives markets dwarf spot markets in volume. Extending identical regulatory treatment to tokenized derivatives opens a much larger surface area for blockchain adoption.
The announcement does not require new legislation. It is guidance, meaning banks can act on it immediately. No waiting period applies.
For institutions like JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Bank of America, the obstacle was never technological.
According to posts on X, including commentary from @BullTheoryio and @markchadwickx, major banks were awaiting exactly this kind of regulatory clarity before moving capital onto blockchain infrastructure.
Tokenization Market Stands to Absorb Trillions in Traditional Capital
The addressable pool of assets is enormous. Global equity markets alone exceed $100 trillion. Bond markets add tens of trillions more.
Real estate sits on top of that. Most of that capital has remained off-chain, not due to technical limitations, but due to unresolved regulatory questions around how tokenized versions would be treated on bank balance sheets.
That question now has a clear answer. A tokenized Apple share carries the same legal claim, the same ownership rights, and the same balance sheet weight as a traditional share. Regulators have confirmed this directly.
The practical effect is that banks can begin integrating tokenized securities into existing workflows without restructuring their risk or compliance frameworks. This lowers the operational cost of adoption substantially.
Public blockchains are specifically included in the guidance. That detail matters. Many institutions assumed regulators would favor private, permissioned networks.
The explicit inclusion of public chains broadens the infrastructure eligible to handle institutional-grade asset flows
Bitcoin is likely to outperform gold on price performance through to 2029 after gold’s strong recent rally, says macroeconomist Lyn Alden.
“If I had to bet Bitcoin versus gold over the next two to three years, I would bet Bitcoin,” Alden said on the New Era Finance podcast on Wednesday.
“Gun to my head, if I had to say which one I think outperforms, I would say Bitcoin,” she added.
“It’s usually a pendulum between the two. If gold has gone up as much as it did, the entire diminishing return story per cycle is going to be erased in the coming one, too.”
Many crypto industry executives, including Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, have predicted that Bitcoin (BTC) will reach $1 million by 2030 with clearer regulations taking shape in the US, which Armstrong called a “bellwether for the rest of the G20.”
Alden dismisses that gold is in a bubble
Bitcoin is often compared to gold as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty, with many investors dubbing it “digital gold.”
Alden said gold is seeing “somewhat euphoric” sentiment after it reached a new all-time high of around $5,608 in January.
“I wouldn’t say it’s a bubble, but it’s somewhat euphoric,” she said.
The JM Bullion gold Fear and Greed Index, which tracks sentiment toward gold, posted a “Greed” score of 72 out of 100 on Friday. On the same day, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index, which measures sentiment across Bitcoin and the broader crypto market, posted an “Extreme Fear” score of 18 out of 100.
Alden said that the sentiment toward Bitcoin is “somewhat unfairly negative.” Bitcoin is trading at $71,164, down 44% from its October all-time high of $126,000, according to CoinMarketCap.
Alden said she avoids relying too heavily on rigid narratives about the relationship between the two assets.
“I try to be hesitant about reading into how absolute these things are. Gold and Bitcoin can go up together, they can go down together,” she explained.
Investors debate Bitcoin’s narrative
While the two assets are often grouped together as alternatives to fiat currencies, the relationship isn’t always consistent; sometimes the prices move in tandem during periods of macro uncertainty, and other times they decouple.
Alden’s comments come shortly after billionaire investor Ray Dalio warned against Bitcoin as a long-term store of value and safe-haven asset, arguing that it lacks central bank support and has lingering concerns about its privacy limitations and quantum resistance.
Related: Construction begins at quantum facility big enough to break Bitcoin
“Gold is not a precious metal that’s speculated on,” Dalio said on Tuesday, adding it is the “most established money” that is the second-largest reserve asset held by central banks.
Meanwhile, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju said in October 2025 that Bitcoin’s correlation with gold is increasing as both assets strengthen their reputations as hedges against macroeconomic uncertainty.
Magazine: Bitcoin may face hard fork over any attempt to freeze Satoshi’s coins
Zerohash is looking to secure a United States national trust bank charter as it plans to operate a federally regulated trust bank.
Summary
- Zerohash has applied for a United States national trust bank charter as it seeks to operate a federally regulated trust bank and expand its services under the GENIUS Act framework.
- Applications for national trust bank charters have surged since the GENIUS Act was passed in July.
Securing a National Trust Bank charter from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency will allow the company to “expand its service offerings under a federal framework, including those activities that fall under the GENIUS Act,” Zerohas said in its official announcement.
Zerohash is a blockchain infrastructure provider that allows financial institutions and fintech firms to integrate crypto services such as trading, custody, and stablecoin payments. The company has been operating since 2017, with some of its clients including big names like Morgan Stanley, Franklin Templeton, and Stripe.
“Applying for a National Trust Bank Charter is a natural next step in offering robust global licensing coverage and continuing to expand our product offering,” the company’s Chief Legal and Compliance Officer, Stephen Gardner, said in a statement.
According to the OCC’s website, Zerohash filed for a national trust bank charter in February alongside two other applicants, Morgan Stanley and PAYO Digital Bank.
Securing this license allows companies to operate federally regulated trust banks and offer services such as custody and asset safekeeping to financial institutions.
Under Donald Trump’s administration, several crypto firms have applied for this charter, including Trump family-backed World Liberty Financial, alongside other companies like Coinbase.
Since the passage of the GENIUS Act in July, this license has become one of the most sought-after regulatory approvals for crypto companies seeking to operate stablecoin and custody services under a federal framework.
As previously covered, the OCC has issued conditional licenses to multiple applicants, including Bridge, Crypto.com, Circle, Ripple, Fidelity Digital Assets, BitGo, and Paxos.
However, it has drawn criticism from some lawmakers, most notably Elizabeth Warren, who has recently pushed back against World Liberty’s pending bank charter application and raised questions about disclosure of foreign investors tied to the venture.
TLDR:
- U.S. Treasury grants India a 30-day waiver to buy stranded Russian oil cargoes amid Gulf energy disruptions
- Iran-linked attacks on Gulf infrastructure tightened oil supply and lifted global price volatility
- U.S. oil output hit 13.6M barrels daily in 2025 as Trump energy policy expanded production
- Crypto markets track oil volatility since macro liquidity and risk sentiment affect digital assets
The United States moved to stabilize global oil supply after new geopolitical pressure hit energy markets. A temporary waiver now allows Indian refiners to purchase Russian oil cargoes stranded at sea.
The policy aims to ease supply disruptions following attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure. Crypto traders often watch such macro developments because shifts in energy markets frequently influence digital asset liquidity.
Trump Oil Waiver and Global Energy Supply Impact on Crypto Market
Scott Bessent announced a temporary 30-day waiver allowing Indian refiners to buy stranded Russian oil shipments. The Treasury Department framed the move as a short-term measure to maintain oil flow.
According to Bessent, the waiver only applies to cargoes already stranded at sea. The authorization limits transactions that might generate revenue for Russia.
The policy follows attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure linked to Iran. Those disruptions pushed global oil prices higher and tightened supply conditions.
Bessent said the measure also protects global markets from sudden shortages. He noted that the United States expects India to increase purchases of American crude.
The announcement supports the broader energy agenda of Donald Trump. U.S. crude output reached a record 13.6 million barrels per day in 2025.
Treasury data shows production rose by more than 600,000 barrels compared with earlier levels. Officials expect elevated production to continue into 2026.
Energy shocks often influence macro risk sentiment across financial markets. Digital asset traders frequently track oil volatility as a signal of broader liquidity shifts.
Crypto Market Reaction to Energy Volatility and Liquidity Signals
Energy disruptions can affect inflation expectations and monetary policy debates. Those macro forces frequently influence crypto trading activity.
Oil price spikes sometimes trigger wider market volatility. Risk assets including cryptocurrencies often move in response to those macro signals.
Supply shocks also shape global liquidity conditions. When energy prices climb, investors sometimes rotate capital across commodities, equities, and crypto.
The waiver aims to prevent sudden supply shortages in global oil markets. Stable energy supply reduces pressure on transport, manufacturing, and broader economic activity.
Digital asset markets often react when macro uncertainty rises. Bitcoin trading volumes historically increase during periods of geopolitical or energy instability.
Crypto investors also monitor geopolitical developments that affect commodities. Oil, gold, and Bitcoin often appear together in macro risk discussions.
The short-term waiver signals continued coordination between energy and financial policy. That intersection increasingly shapes how investors interpret market risk.
Treasury officials emphasized that the measure remains temporary. The goal centers on stabilizing supply without granting Russia lasting financial benefit.
Bitcoin and global equity markets have stabilized after an early-week sell-off and oil price spike that was triggered by the outbreak of military conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran. Bond markets, however, are signaling caution, as rising yields signal renewed inflation concerns and dwindling bets on Fed rate cuts.
BTC, the leading cryptocurrency by market value, traded above $70,000 Friday, up nearly 10% for the week. Prices briefly climbed to nearly $74,000 Wednesday after dropping to around $65,000 over the weekend as geopolitical tensions rattled markets.
The rebound has been mirrored in equity futures. Contracts tied to the S&P 500 slid to a multi-week low of 6,718 points Tuesday before recovering to around 6,840 as of writing.
The initial risk-off move came as oil prices surged following reports that Iran had blocked oil tankers transiting through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global crude supplies. Markets stabilized after the U.S. moved quickly to calm fears, promising naval escorts and political risk insurance for oil and gas tankers traveling through the strait.
Still, the bond market remains uneasy.
The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note has risen for four consecutive days, climbing from 3.93% to 4.15%. Bond prices move inversely to yields. Meanwhile, the two-year yield, which is more sensitive to interest rate expectations, has jumped from 3.37% to nearly 3.60%.
The move higher in yields suggests traders are reassessing the outlook for monetary policy as the conflict-driven spike in energy prices threatens to rekindle inflation pressures.
According to CME Fed funds futures, investors now see less than a 50-50 chance of two 25-basis-point Fed rate cuts this year, down from nearly 80% before the onset of the conflict.
“The rates market is revealing the tension in this rally,” Bryan Tan, trader at leading digital asset market maker Wintermute, said in an email, noting the rise in yields.
“The conflict between a resilient economy (ISM Services at 56.1, ADP at +63K vs +50K expected) and an inflationary energy shock is historically the kind of setup that keeps the Fed frozen for longer. The Warsh nomination officially hitting the Senate this week adds another layer of hawkish uncertainty,” Tan added.
Some observers note that the inflationary impact of oil shocks typically unfolds gradually across the global economy, suggesting yields could remain elevated in the weeks ahead and potentially cap upside in risk assets such as stocks and cryptocurrencies.
“After major geopolitical shocks, oil prices usually rise gradually for weeks. The average pattern shows oil typically climbing 20–30% within ~60 days after the shock,” analyst Jack Prandelli explained on X. “Markets often underprice the first phase of supply risk. The real move tends to happen once physical disruptions start showing up in flows and inventories.”
Recent strong economic data in the U.S. has also contributed to the rise in yields and the scaling back of rate-cut expectations. Data released Tuesday showed economic activity in the U.S. services sector continued to expand in February, with the ISM index rising to 56.1. The ADP private payrolls report showed 63,000 job creations in February, the strongest reading since July 2025.
Attention now turns to Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report and wage growth figures. A hotter-than-expected print could further weaken expectations for Fed rate cuts and inject fresh volatility into financial markets.
A cryptocurrency holder has claimed that attackers stole roughly $24 million in a crypto robbery following a violent assault, with blockchain security analysts now tracking the movement of the funds on-chain.
Summary
- A crypto user known as “Silly Tuna” claims attackers used violence and threats to steal roughly $24 million in digital assets.
- Blockchain security firm PeckShield said the funds were drained in an address poisoning attack and partially moved to staging wallets.
- Around $20 million in DAI is reportedly sitting in two wallets, while small portions have already been bridged to Arbitrum.
$24M crypto robbery linked to address poisoning
In a series of posts on X, a user operating under the handle “Silly Tuna” alleged that the theft occurred during a physical attack that involved weapons and threats of kidnapping and sexual violence. The user said police have been contacted and described the incident as a “violent assault and theft,” adding that the attackers targeted their crypto holdings.
“Still have limbs, phew,” the user wrote, claiming they were held down while attackers threatened them with axes and forced the transfer of funds.
The victim said the stolen assets were moved to an Ethereum wallet beginning with 0x6fe0…0322 and offered a 10% bounty on any recovered funds. The user also called on blockchain investigators to help trace the transactions.
Blockchain security firm PeckShield later reported that an address linked to the victim had been drained of approximately $24 million worth of aEthUSDC, describing the incident as an address poisoning attack.
According to the firm, about $20 million in DAI linked to the exploit is currently sitting in two attacker-controlled staging wallets, each holding roughly $10 million. These wallets have not yet been mixed, suggesting the funds remain traceable for now.
PeckShield also said the attacker has begun bridging small amounts of the stolen assets to the layer-2 network Arbitrum, a move often used by attackers attempting to fragment or obscure transaction trails.
The incident highlights the growing risk of physical attacks targeting cryptocurrency holders, sometimes referred to as “wrench attacks,” where criminals use coercion or violence to force victims to hand over private keys or execute transfers.
It remains unclear whether any of the stolen funds have been recovered at press time.
The crypto crowd has given up on altcoins. And that might be the most bullish thing about them right now.
Santiment’s social volume tracker shows weekly mentions of “altseason” across social media have fallen to rock bottom, the lowest reading in at least two years.
The term is essentially a proxy for retail greed and speculation. When everyone’s talking about altseason, it usually marks a top. When nobody’s talking about it, large holders have historically started accumulating.
Every major spike in altseason chatter over the past two years coincided with a local top in DOGE. Every period of silence was followed by a rally. The pattern isn’t perfect, but the correlation between crowd disinterest and subsequent price recoveries is hard to ignore across multiple cycles.
The current apathy is earned. Altcoins have been brutalized since October’s crash. Dogecoin is down roughly 75% from its cycle peak. Solana has shed over 60%. Cardano has lost more than 70%.
The broader altcoin market has been bleeding against bitcoin for months, with capital rotating into BTC and stablecoins rather than chasing lower-cap tokens. There’s simply nothing left to be excited about if you’ve been holding alts through this drawdown.
Other sentiment indicators confirm the exhaustion. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has spent most of February and March oscillating between “fear” and “extreme fear.”
The Coinbase Premium Index stayed negative for over 40 consecutive days through February, signaling that U.S. retail interest was absent even from bitcoin, let alone more speculative assets. Google Trends data for terms like “best crypto to buy” have flatlined while searches of “bitcoin to zero” hit a U.S. record earlier in the month.
Meanwhile, the on-chain picture has been quietly diverging from sentiment. Bitcoin wallets holding 100+ BTC approached 20,000 for the first time in late February, suggesting large holders were accumulating the dip.
The data does not directly mean a rally is imminent; however, with the ongoing Iran conflict pressuring financial markets all over the world. The altcoin market needs bitcoin to stabilize before it can rotate lower on the risk curve.
The conditions for an altseason aren’t here yet, but the sentiment setup is.
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