Key Takeaways

• Arthur Hayes, BitMEX co-founder, believes extended US-Iran military engagement may compel the Federal Reserve to reduce interest rates and expand monetary supply.
• Historical precedent shows the Fed has injected liquidity during previous US military operations, according to Hayes.
• Escalating oil prices resulting from regional tensions could drive 10-year Treasury yields upward, potentially prompting Fed intervention.
• Bitcoin dropped from approximately $66,000 to $63,000 when tensions intensified but has since rebounded to the $73,000 level.
• Market observers identify $70,685 as crucial Bitcoin support, with near-term price objectives ranging from $75,000 to $80,000.

Arthur Hayes, who co-founded BitMEX and currently serves as chief investment officer at Maelstrom, believes the escalating US-Iran tensions may initiate a sequence of events culminating in Federal Reserve monetary expansion — potentially benefiting Bitcoin prices.

In analysis published Monday on his blog, Hayes explained how prolonged US military operations in Middle Eastern regions have historically compelled the Federal Reserve to implement rate reductions and inject market liquidity. He cited the 1990 Gulf War, post-9/11 global counterterrorism efforts, and the 2009 Afghanistan troop surge as illustrative examples.

“The cure, as always, is cheaper and more plentiful money,” Hayes noted in his analysis.

In a March 6 post on X, Hayes cautioned that sustained increases in Brent crude prices stemming from US-Iran hostilities could cause 10-year Treasury yields to surge dramatically. Such market turbulence would elevate the MOVE Index — which tracks US bond market volatility — creating what Hayes considers a “prerequisite” for Federal Reserve monetary intervention.

Brent crude has climbed approximately 20% since conflict intensification began, fueled by concerns about Middle Eastern supply constraints. Nevertheless, oil prices declined over 1% Thursday to approximately $80 per barrel following Trump administration announcements of price stabilization measures, including a 30-day exemption permitting India to maintain Russian oil purchases.

Implications for Bitcoin Markets

Hayes contends that Federal Reserve rate reductions or balance sheet growth would increase market liquidity, historically providing positive momentum for Bitcoin and comparable risk assets.

Bitcoin’s response to the military tensions has shown volatility. Prices declined from roughly $66,000 to $63,000 immediately following hostilities escalation. Subsequently, the cryptocurrency has recovered and recently reached a one-month peak of $73,000.

Hayes recommends awaiting definitive indications of Fed policy adjustments — either interest rate cuts or balance sheet expansion — before initiating Bitcoin or altcoin purchases. He has not advocated for immediate market entry.

Probability of a rate reduction at the Federal Reserve’s March 17–18 policy meeting remains minimal. CME Group’s FedWatch tool indicates merely 2.7% odds of a cut at that gathering. Most market observers anticipate the Fed will maintain rates within the 3.50% to 3.75% range.

Expert Technical Analysis

Cryptocurrency analyst Ali Martinez has pinpointed $70,685 as a critical Bitcoin support threshold. Maintaining that price level could facilitate a near-term advance toward $75,000–$80,000, according to market technicians.

Inflation pressures represent an additional consideration. Should inflation remain persistent, the Federal Reserve may possess limited flexibility for rate cuts, potentially constraining any immediate rally in risk assets like Bitcoin.

Hayes has offered comparable forecasts repeatedly in recent months. In January, he suggested potential US military operations in Venezuela as a probable catalyst for Fed monetary easing. Last month, he indicated an AI-driven financial crisis as the subsequent trigger.

In December, Hayes forecasted Bitcoin would reach $200,000 this month, referencing reserve management acquisitions announced by the Fed during that period.

Currently, Bitcoin maintains trading activity within the $70,000–$73,000 corridor, with markets monitoring both Federal Reserve communications and Middle Eastern geopolitical developments.

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Bitcoin-focused Solv Protocol was exploited on Thursday, resulting in roughly $2.7 million worth of funds drained from one of its token vaults. The project has offered a 10% bounty to the attackers.

Solv Protocol is a DeFi platform that allows users to stake Bitcoin through its Staking Abstraction Layer. 

According to a post incident update, roughly 38 Solv Protocol BTC (SolvBTC), which the project uses for yield-generating and lending activities across its ecosystem, was drained from one of its structured yield vaults called Bitcoin Reserve Offerings (BRO).

Solv Protocol said that the incident impacted fewer than 10 users and added that it would compensate for the loss of 38.05 SolvBTC, which amounts to roughly $2.7 million.

While a full post-mortem of the incident is yet to be published, third-party security analysts believe the attacker was able to abuse a double-minting flaw in a BitcoinReserveOffering contract.

Per security firm Decurity’s automated bot, the exploiter was able to trigger the vulnerability 22 times, which allowed them to inflate 135 BRO into roughly 567 million BRO tokens before converting the funds into SolvBTC.

Meanwhile, a pseudonymous crypto researcher identified as Pyro described the incident as a reentrancy attack, a common exploit where repeated calls to a smart contract allow attackers to manipulate internal accounting before balances are properly updated.

In the meantime, Solv Protocol has offered a 10% bounty if the attackers return the funds to the designated address. Further, the project claims to be working with its security partners to patch the vulnerability.

At the time of publication, the attackers have yet to indicate whether they intend to return the stolen funds.

This is one of the several attacks that have targeted DeFi protocols of late.

Earlier in the week, Curve Finance’s sDOLA LlamaLend markets were exploited through a vulnerability tied to the pool’s oracle configuration, and the attacker reportedly made about $240,000 by manipulating the pricing mechanism using a flash loan to trigger liquidations.

In early February, the cross-chain liquidity protocol CrossCurve also lost roughly $3 million after attackers exploited a flaw in its smart contract that allowed spoofed cross-chain messages to bypass gateway validation and unlock funds from the PortalV2 contract.

Bitcoin price fell to near $70,000 on Friday following a sharp rebound the previous day. A looming BTC options expiry event is now keeping investors on edge as the market anticipates potential volatility.

According to data from crypto.news, Bitcoin (BTC) price fell 4.5% to an intraday low of $70,177 on Friday morning Asian time before stabilizing around $70,400 at press time. The bellwether pulled back after facing rejection around $74,000, a key resistance level it had failed to break for over a month. 

Bitcoin price fell as investors began booking profits after climbing over 15% in the past 5 days. 

This came amid a broader risk-off environment triggered by the ongoing war between the U.S. and Iran, which has led energy prices to soar to multi-month highs. The military escalation has also triggered capital rotation into traditional safe-haven assets, which have seen relatively better performance amid the geopolitical uncertainty. 

Today, investor sentiment is being kept in check as $2.22 billion worth of Bitcoin option expiry is set to be settled on the Deribit exchange at 8:00 a.m. UTC. Over 31,500 Bitcoin open contracts are set to expire.

At press time, the put-to-call ratio was at 1.72, meaning put options or traders betting on Bitcoin to go lower far surpass the calls that are betting on a rise. The maximum pain level for BTC or the price at which most option contracts expire worthless stood at $69,000, just $1,400 short of the current spot price. 

The maximum pain level, also known as the strike price, tends to pull spot prices towards the center around expiry. Therefore, there remains a high risk that Bitcoin price could pull back towards the $69,000 mark as options reach expiry. 

Bitcoin has failed to hold above $70,000 six times since the start of February, and losing this key psychological support once again could spook short-term traders who were betting on the current recovery rally.

Despite the concerns surrounding the massive options expiry today, BTC price charts have not yet shown signs of a breakdown. 

On the Bitcoin/USDT 24-hour chart, momentum indicators still portrayed a positive outlook at least in the short term. 

Notably, the MACD line was pointing upwards, suggesting growing buying pressure for the bulls in comparison to the selling pressure exerted by bears. At the same time, the Relative Strength Index has also formed a bullish divergence with the price action. 

For now, bulls will be eyeing $72,000 as the next major resistance level to claim, a break above which could likely end its downtrend today. 

On the contrary, a move below the $70,000 support could pull BTC price to $69,000 and successively as low as $60,000 as the broader structure remains confined within a bearish flag pattern, which is considered one of the most negative formations in technical analysis.

Key Takeaways

• Ethereum declined 6% following a brief rally to $2,200, pressured by US equity market weakness and geopolitical tensions
• Options market skew reached 7%, indicating institutional traders are positioning for potential downside
• US spot Ethereum ETFs experienced combined net outflows totaling $91 million on March 5
• The validator entry queue expanded to 3.4 million ETH, while exit queue contracted to only 58,944 ETH
• Ethereum commands 65% of aggregate blockchain TVL across layer-1 and layer-2 networks, with $55.4B on mainnet

Ethereum is currently exchanging hands near $2,080 following its inability to sustain momentum beyond the $2,200 threshold this week. The pullback occurred amid deteriorating global market conditions, influenced by escalating Middle East tensions and a US judicial decision mandating government repayment exceeding $130 billion in tariff refunds to domestic enterprises.

The second-largest cryptocurrency had mounted an impressive 22% recovery from its February nadir of $1,800, but upward momentum dissipated rapidly. Wednesday’s temporary breach of $2,200 was swiftly followed by a 6% retracement, echoing broader risk-asset selloffs across US markets.

Futures market indicators paint a cautious picture. The 30-day annualized premium for ETH futures contracts remains significantly below the 5% neutral benchmark, suggesting limited appetite for leveraged bullish positions among derivatives traders.

The put-call skew for ETH options expanded to 7% on Thursday. Historical patterns indicate that readings exceeding 6% generally reflect heightened demand for downside protection among sophisticated market participants.

Liquidation data from CoinGlass reveals that ETH traders absorbed $58 million in forced position closures over a 24-hour period, with long positions accounting for $35.7 million of that total.

Institutional Flows and Staking Dynamics

The price deterioration coincided with unfavorable institutional flow data. March 5 witnessed US spot Ethereum ETF products recording aggregate net redemptions of $91 million, signaling a temporary retreat in institutional demand.

This outflow represented a sharp reversal from the more constructive inflows observed during earlier trading sessions in the week, underscoring how rapidly institutional sentiment responds to changing market dynamics.

Meanwhile, network staking metrics present a contrasting narrative. The validator activation queue has ballooned to approximately 3.4 million ETH, while the corresponding exit queue has diminished to merely 58,944 ETH. Prospective validators now face wait times approaching 57 days.

These figures indicate that substantial holders are preferring to stake their ETH for yield generation rather than liquidating positions during market turbulence.

Onchain Metrics and Ecosystem Dominance

Decentralized exchange activity on Ethereum has cooled considerably. Weekly DEX trading volumes contracted to $12.6 billion from $20.2 billion recorded one month prior. Decentralized application revenues similarly declined to $14.1 million over the trailing seven days, representing a 47% month-over-month decrease.

Solana experienced comparable trends, with DEX volumes contracting by 50% across the identical 30-day measurement period.

Notwithstanding reduced network activity metrics, Ethereum maintains its commanding position in value locked across the blockchain ecosystem. When accounting for layer-2 scaling solutions, the Ethereum infrastructure captures approximately 65% of total blockchain TVL. The mainnet alone secures $55.4 billion, substantially exceeding Solana’s $6.8 billion.

Technical analysis identifies immediate resistance at the $2,108 level on daily timeframes. A decisive close above this threshold could facilitate a move toward $2,388. Conversely, should support at $1,741 fail to hold, subsequent downside targets emerge at $1,524 and $1,404.

Analysts have identified $1,826 as the lower boundary of the current range structure, representing the next technical attractor should selling pressure intensify in the near term.

Cardano’s native token ADA is drawing renewed attention after the Cardano Foundation announced that the cryptocurrency can now be used for payments at Spar supermarkets across Switzerland, marking a real-world adoption milestone for the blockchain network.

According to the foundation, customers can now pay with the Cardano token (ADA) using a crypto payment integration powered by the OpenCryptoPay gateway, allowing seamless checkout transactions in participating stores.

The rollout makes the Swiss branch of the global retail chain one of the largest supermarket networks in Europe to accept ADA payments.

The initiative reflects Cardano’s broader push toward everyday payment use cases and could help strengthen the network’s reputation as a practical blockchain ecosystem beyond decentralized finance and token speculation.

Retail adoption has historically been a positive sentiment driver for cryptocurrencies, as it signals growing real-world utility. However, the impact on price tends to depend on broader market conditions and investor demand rather than adoption announcements alone.

At press time, ADA is trading near $0.27, showing modest stabilization after a prolonged downtrend that began in early January.

Cardano price prediction after ADA payment rollout across Spar stores

The daily chart shows that Cardano has been trading in a tight consolidation range between $0.26 and $0.30 over the past few weeks following a steep decline from the $0.40 region earlier in the year.

Price is currently hovering around $0.269, with the market forming smaller candles and reduced volatility — a pattern that often precedes a breakout move.

The Accumulation/Distribution indicator, sitting near 50.66B, has been trending slightly downward, suggesting that buying pressure remains limited and that large investors have not yet begun aggressive accumulation.

Meanwhile, the Balance of Power (BOP) indicator remains marginally negative at -0.0097, indicating that sellers still hold a slight advantage in the short term.

Key levels to watch include support near $0.26, which has held multiple times since mid-February. A breakdown below this level could expose ADA to further downside toward $0.24.

On the upside, resistance sits around $0.30, with a stronger barrier near $0.32. A sustained break above these levels could signal the start of a recovery rally if bullish momentum returns to the broader crypto market.

For now, ADA appears to be in a consolidation phase, with traders watching for a catalyst — such as increased adoption or broader market strength — to determine the token’s next major move.

US regulators have clarified that tokenized securities will receive the same capital treatment as their traditional counterparts, saying the rules are “technology neutral.” 

The Federal Reserve, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency said on Thursday that they would treat traditional and tokenized securities the same under bank capital requirements.

“The technologies used to issue and transact in a security do not generally impact its capital treatment,” the agencies said.

“An eligible tokenized security should be treated in the same manner as the non-tokenized form of the security would be treated under the capital rule,” the new guidance added. 

Under the guidance, financial institutions won’t need to over-collateralize when holding tokenized securities on their balance sheets, as is required when holding unproven and volatile assets.

Many traditional finance companies have shown increasing interest in tokenization, which regulators said prompted them to issue the new guidance.

The agencies said that derivatives referencing an “eligible tokenized security” should also be treated, for capital purposes, as derivatives referencing the non-tokenized form of the security.

The regulators added that tokenized securities are also not affected in their ability to be legally deemed financial collateral, so long as they are liquid and legally owned or controlled by an institution that can sell them if the borrower fails to pay, as part of the terms of a collateral agreement.