Bitcoin price fell to near $70,000 on Friday following a sharp rebound the previous day. A looming BTC options expiry event is now keeping investors on edge as the market anticipates potential volatility.

According to data from crypto.news, Bitcoin (BTC) price fell 4.5% to an intraday low of $70,177 on Friday morning Asian time before stabilizing around $70,400 at press time. The bellwether pulled back after facing rejection around $74,000, a key resistance level it had failed to break for over a month. 

Bitcoin price fell as investors began booking profits after climbing over 15% in the past 5 days. 

This came amid a broader risk-off environment triggered by the ongoing war between the U.S. and Iran, which has led energy prices to soar to multi-month highs. The military escalation has also triggered capital rotation into traditional safe-haven assets, which have seen relatively better performance amid the geopolitical uncertainty. 

Today, investor sentiment is being kept in check as $2.22 billion worth of Bitcoin option expiry is set to be settled on the Deribit exchange at 8:00 a.m. UTC. Over 31,500 Bitcoin open contracts are set to expire.

At press time, the put-to-call ratio was at 1.72, meaning put options or traders betting on Bitcoin to go lower far surpass the calls that are betting on a rise. The maximum pain level for BTC or the price at which most option contracts expire worthless stood at $69,000, just $1,400 short of the current spot price. 

The maximum pain level, also known as the strike price, tends to pull spot prices towards the center around expiry. Therefore, there remains a high risk that Bitcoin price could pull back towards the $69,000 mark as options reach expiry. 

Bitcoin has failed to hold above $70,000 six times since the start of February, and losing this key psychological support once again could spook short-term traders who were betting on the current recovery rally.

Despite the concerns surrounding the massive options expiry today, BTC price charts have not yet shown signs of a breakdown. 

On the Bitcoin/USDT 24-hour chart, momentum indicators still portrayed a positive outlook at least in the short term. 

Notably, the MACD line was pointing upwards, suggesting growing buying pressure for the bulls in comparison to the selling pressure exerted by bears. At the same time, the Relative Strength Index has also formed a bullish divergence with the price action. 

For now, bulls will be eyeing $72,000 as the next major resistance level to claim, a break above which could likely end its downtrend today. 

On the contrary, a move below the $70,000 support could pull BTC price to $69,000 and successively as low as $60,000 as the broader structure remains confined within a bearish flag pattern, which is considered one of the most negative formations in technical analysis.

Key Takeaways

• Ethereum declined 6% following a brief rally to $2,200, pressured by US equity market weakness and geopolitical tensions
• Options market skew reached 7%, indicating institutional traders are positioning for potential downside
• US spot Ethereum ETFs experienced combined net outflows totaling $91 million on March 5
• The validator entry queue expanded to 3.4 million ETH, while exit queue contracted to only 58,944 ETH
• Ethereum commands 65% of aggregate blockchain TVL across layer-1 and layer-2 networks, with $55.4B on mainnet

Ethereum is currently exchanging hands near $2,080 following its inability to sustain momentum beyond the $2,200 threshold this week. The pullback occurred amid deteriorating global market conditions, influenced by escalating Middle East tensions and a US judicial decision mandating government repayment exceeding $130 billion in tariff refunds to domestic enterprises.

The second-largest cryptocurrency had mounted an impressive 22% recovery from its February nadir of $1,800, but upward momentum dissipated rapidly. Wednesday’s temporary breach of $2,200 was swiftly followed by a 6% retracement, echoing broader risk-asset selloffs across US markets.

Futures market indicators paint a cautious picture. The 30-day annualized premium for ETH futures contracts remains significantly below the 5% neutral benchmark, suggesting limited appetite for leveraged bullish positions among derivatives traders.

The put-call skew for ETH options expanded to 7% on Thursday. Historical patterns indicate that readings exceeding 6% generally reflect heightened demand for downside protection among sophisticated market participants.

Liquidation data from CoinGlass reveals that ETH traders absorbed $58 million in forced position closures over a 24-hour period, with long positions accounting for $35.7 million of that total.

Institutional Flows and Staking Dynamics

The price deterioration coincided with unfavorable institutional flow data. March 5 witnessed US spot Ethereum ETF products recording aggregate net redemptions of $91 million, signaling a temporary retreat in institutional demand.

This outflow represented a sharp reversal from the more constructive inflows observed during earlier trading sessions in the week, underscoring how rapidly institutional sentiment responds to changing market dynamics.

Meanwhile, network staking metrics present a contrasting narrative. The validator activation queue has ballooned to approximately 3.4 million ETH, while the corresponding exit queue has diminished to merely 58,944 ETH. Prospective validators now face wait times approaching 57 days.

These figures indicate that substantial holders are preferring to stake their ETH for yield generation rather than liquidating positions during market turbulence.

Onchain Metrics and Ecosystem Dominance

Decentralized exchange activity on Ethereum has cooled considerably. Weekly DEX trading volumes contracted to $12.6 billion from $20.2 billion recorded one month prior. Decentralized application revenues similarly declined to $14.1 million over the trailing seven days, representing a 47% month-over-month decrease.

Solana experienced comparable trends, with DEX volumes contracting by 50% across the identical 30-day measurement period.

Notwithstanding reduced network activity metrics, Ethereum maintains its commanding position in value locked across the blockchain ecosystem. When accounting for layer-2 scaling solutions, the Ethereum infrastructure captures approximately 65% of total blockchain TVL. The mainnet alone secures $55.4 billion, substantially exceeding Solana’s $6.8 billion.

Technical analysis identifies immediate resistance at the $2,108 level on daily timeframes. A decisive close above this threshold could facilitate a move toward $2,388. Conversely, should support at $1,741 fail to hold, subsequent downside targets emerge at $1,524 and $1,404.

Analysts have identified $1,826 as the lower boundary of the current range structure, representing the next technical attractor should selling pressure intensify in the near term.

Cardano’s native token ADA is drawing renewed attention after the Cardano Foundation announced that the cryptocurrency can now be used for payments at Spar supermarkets across Switzerland, marking a real-world adoption milestone for the blockchain network.

According to the foundation, customers can now pay with the Cardano token (ADA) using a crypto payment integration powered by the OpenCryptoPay gateway, allowing seamless checkout transactions in participating stores.

The rollout makes the Swiss branch of the global retail chain one of the largest supermarket networks in Europe to accept ADA payments.

The initiative reflects Cardano’s broader push toward everyday payment use cases and could help strengthen the network’s reputation as a practical blockchain ecosystem beyond decentralized finance and token speculation.

Retail adoption has historically been a positive sentiment driver for cryptocurrencies, as it signals growing real-world utility. However, the impact on price tends to depend on broader market conditions and investor demand rather than adoption announcements alone.

At press time, ADA is trading near $0.27, showing modest stabilization after a prolonged downtrend that began in early January.

Cardano price prediction after ADA payment rollout across Spar stores

The daily chart shows that Cardano has been trading in a tight consolidation range between $0.26 and $0.30 over the past few weeks following a steep decline from the $0.40 region earlier in the year.

Price is currently hovering around $0.269, with the market forming smaller candles and reduced volatility — a pattern that often precedes a breakout move.

The Accumulation/Distribution indicator, sitting near 50.66B, has been trending slightly downward, suggesting that buying pressure remains limited and that large investors have not yet begun aggressive accumulation.

Meanwhile, the Balance of Power (BOP) indicator remains marginally negative at -0.0097, indicating that sellers still hold a slight advantage in the short term.

Key levels to watch include support near $0.26, which has held multiple times since mid-February. A breakdown below this level could expose ADA to further downside toward $0.24.

On the upside, resistance sits around $0.30, with a stronger barrier near $0.32. A sustained break above these levels could signal the start of a recovery rally if bullish momentum returns to the broader crypto market.

For now, ADA appears to be in a consolidation phase, with traders watching for a catalyst — such as increased adoption or broader market strength — to determine the token’s next major move.

US regulators have clarified that tokenized securities will receive the same capital treatment as their traditional counterparts, saying the rules are “technology neutral.” 

The Federal Reserve, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency said on Thursday that they would treat traditional and tokenized securities the same under bank capital requirements.

“The technologies used to issue and transact in a security do not generally impact its capital treatment,” the agencies said.

“An eligible tokenized security should be treated in the same manner as the non-tokenized form of the security would be treated under the capital rule,” the new guidance added. 

Under the guidance, financial institutions won’t need to over-collateralize when holding tokenized securities on their balance sheets, as is required when holding unproven and volatile assets.

Many traditional finance companies have shown increasing interest in tokenization, which regulators said prompted them to issue the new guidance.

The agencies said that derivatives referencing an “eligible tokenized security” should also be treated, for capital purposes, as derivatives referencing the non-tokenized form of the security.

The regulators added that tokenized securities are also not affected in their ability to be legally deemed financial collateral, so long as they are liquid and legally owned or controlled by an institution that can sell them if the borrower fails to pay, as part of the terms of a collateral agreement.