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ETH USD: Is the Ethereum Breakout a Bull Trap?

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The Ethereum price has rejected from the $2,160 resistance zone, leading to many analysts calling for a bull trap for ETH USD

The Ethereum price slammed into the critical $2,160 resistance level yesterday, and after attempting to reverse a historic six-month losing streak, ETH USD looks to have rejected and is now trading back under $2,100.

Price action is currently extremely volatile, with ETH falling -1.6% over the last 24 hours to trade near $2,080, leaving traders paralyzed between a potential breakout and a classic bull trap.

While bullish momentum is building on lower timeframes, many European trading desks are warning of a classic bull trap setup, a fakeout that lures buyers in before flushing the price to new lows.

With the asset sitting at a make-or-break pivot, this coming weekend could define the Ethereum trend for the remainder of Q1 2026.

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The Ethereum price has rejected from the $2,160 resistance zone, leading to many analysts calling for a bull trap for ETH USD
SOURCE: TradingView

Ethereum Price Analysis: What’s Next After $2,160 Rejection?

While the 12-hour timeframe is teasing a massive reversal pattern that has bulls salivating, Ethereum needs to hold above $2,000. A daily close above this level would confirm the inverse Head and Shoulders pattern, with the neckline sitting firmly at that crucial $2,160 level.

Adding to the bullish case is a clear divergence in the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which has been making higher lows while the price consolidated. This momentum shift suggests that sellers are finally becoming exhausted.

If buyers can defend the $2,000 zone and clear the $2,160 resistance level, the immediate path of least resistance flips to the upside, targeting the 200-day moving average.

However, the risk of a fakeout remains high. If ETH USD fails to clear this breakout and slips back below $2,000, the bullish structure would be invalidated.

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In that scenario, the price would likely retest the $1,900 support zone. Traders watching the crypto price prediction today are acutely aware that volume must sustain this move, as a breakout on low volume is a prime candidate for a reversal.

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On-Chain Data Shows Massive Accumulation for ETH USD: Is It Enough?

On-chain metrics reveal aggressive accumulation despite chart resistance. Data from Glassnode shows that long-term holders added 252,142 Ethereum to their holdings in February 2026.

This “averaging down” behavior indicates that investors see current prices as a buying opportunity, regardless of short-term volatility.

This accumulation trend coincides with updates on Ethereum’s long-term roadmap from Vitalik, boosting confidence among institutional investors.

The disparity between increasing holder balances and stagnant prices often signals a potential supply shock, assuming macro conditions don’t lead to liquidation.

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Currently, support levels are holding, with the realized price for short-term holders aligning with market prices, suggesting that the capitulation phase may soon end.

Analysts Warn: Is This a Bull Trap?

Despite some market optimism, analysts are highlighting significant structural risks on the weekly timeframe.

Benjamin Cowen points out that Ethereum is trading below its weekly “bull market support band,” and the 50-week and 200-week moving averages are near a death cross.

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This has raised concerns among seasoned traders that the current rally might be a “bull trap.” If resistance at $2,160 holds, analysts predict a potential drop to $1,320-$1,345, a level not seen since the last cycle’s early accumulation phases.

Additionally, a new Chinese AI, Kimi, forecasts volatile market conditions leading into 2026 before any sustained all-time highs can occur.

To counter this bearish outlook, bulls need a weekly close above $2,300 on ETH USD to regain structural support; without it, the macro trend remains bearish.

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Bitcoin Exchange Outflows Signal Holder Conviction Amid Hormuz Crisis

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Bitcoin Exchange Outflows Signal Holder Conviction Amid Hormuz Crisis


Bitcoin outflows from exchanges continued during the Hormuz crisis, signaling holders are moving coins into cold storage rather than selling.

Bitcoin (BTC) held near $70,000 on March 6 after a geopolitical shock tied to tensions around the Strait of Hormuz pushed energy prices higher and triggered risk-off behavior across global markets.

Despite the turbulence, blockchain data shows BTC continuing to leave exchanges, suggesting many holders are not preparing to sell.

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Energy Shock Rattles Markets

Analyst GugaOnChain linked the latest volatility to disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, a major energy shipping route, which remains effectively closed amid the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran.

The market watcher noted that Brent crude traded near $85 and West Texas Intermediate around $81 as the situation pushed up fuel costs, including a $0.27 increase in U.S. gasoline prices during the week.

According to the same analysis, the shock drained liquidity across global markets and led to outflows of just under $228 million from Bitcoin exchange-traded funds on March 5. However, exchange flow data showed an unusual divergence. Using a seven-day moving average, Bitcoin’s net exchange flows remained negative, meaning more coins were leaving exchanges than entering them. Daily data showed withdrawals of 500 BTC, while the weekly total reached about 6,500 BTC, leaving trading venues.

According to GugaOnChain, such movements often signal that investors are transferring holdings into cold storage, which reduces the supply immediately available for sale.

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“Given the notable on-chain resilience, the directive is to adopt a tactical defensive stance, maximizing cash now and awaiting confirmation of a reversal in institutional flows before raising exposure again,” the analyst advised.

Trading Activity Intensifies on Major Exchanges

While coins are leaving exchanges overall, trading activity inside platforms has accelerated. Data shared by Arab Chain on March 6 showed Bitcoin turnover on Binance reaching about 425,000 BTC over the past 30 days, one of the highest readings since December.

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Binance’s Bitcoin reserves currently stand near 660,000 BTC, and compared with the 30-day turnover figure, the liquidity ratio sits around 0.64, meaning about 64% of those reserves have been traded or transferred during the period.

That pattern suggests the same coins are changing hands repeatedly within a short time frame, which reflects increased speculative activity and stronger liquidity circulation within the market.

Bitcoin has fallen from a monthly peak attained earlier in the week, with price data from CoinGecko showing the asset trading just under $71,000 at the time of writing, down about 2% in the last 24 hours but still up close to 5% over seven days.

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At the moment, the flagship cryptocurrency is sitting between renewed institutional demand and global macro pressure. Exchange withdrawals imply that many holders are waiting rather than rushing to exit positions, even as traders remain active inside the market.

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Insights on crypto’s new marketing logic from Bitget Wallet CMO Jamie Elkaleh

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Insights on crypto’s new marketing logic from Bitget Wallet CMO Jamie Elkaleh

As part of Outset PR’s Web3 communications talks, the agency founder Mike Ermolaev recently spoke with Jamie Elkaleh, CMO of Bitget Wallet, about how marketing changes when a crypto wallet evolves from a trading tool into a broader financial interface. 

Summary

  • Crypto marketing is moving towards utility-driven adoption, where product experience and real-world usability play a central role.
  • Regional differences increasingly shape communication strategies, as adoption patterns, regulations, and user expectations vary between markets such as Asia and the West.
  • As the industry matures, both media narratives and market movements are becoming more influenced by verifiable data, institutional capital, and macroeconomic forces.

While the full conversation explores everything from user acquisition to media strategy and the shifting dynamics of crypto markets, here are several key insights that are worth broader market attention.

Smooth onboarding drives sustainable user acquisition

One of Jamie’s key points is that sustainable wallet growth is no longer driven by incentives. Airdrops and points programs are often used to generate rapid attention. But according to him, these tactics rarely translate into long-term users. Instead, the focus should be on reducing product friction and simplifying onboarding.

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“When users can transact without managing seed phrases or holding native gas tokens, adoption becomes more sustainable.”

In a utility-driven market, Jamie says, product design effectively becomes marketing.

Marketing in Asia vs. the West reflects different user expectations

Another point Jamie raised is that crypto marketing strategies vary significantly by region.

In Asia, adoption is closely tied to everyday financial use cases such as remittances, cross-border transfers, and stablecoin payments. As a result, communication tends to focus on speed, accessibility, and practical value.

“In 2025, the region recorded a 69% year-over-year increase in on-chain value. That reflects strong grassroots usage.”

In Western markets, the situation is different. Regulatory clarity and institutional trust shape user expectations much more strongly.

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“With frameworks such as MiCA in Europe and new U.S. stablecoin legislation, users prioritize compliance, proof of reserves, and risk transparency.”

Despite these differences, Jamie notes that the core requirement remains the same across regions: products must work reliably in real-world financial contexts.

Data now underlies media credibility

At Bitget Wallet’s scale, Jamie insists that media coverage can’t rely on generic commentary. Journalists increasingly expect verifiable data that helps explain what is actually happening in the market.

“We publish research reports based on on-chain analytics and user behavior trends, which allows reporters to reference measurable insights.”

Per him, stories supported by real usage patterns – whether in transaction volume, adoption, or user growth – travel much further across the media ecosystem. This approach also changes how the team evaluates PR performance.

“We prioritize tier-one mentions, analyst citations, and share of voice within strategic narratives. Secondary indicators include organic brand mentions, backlink authority, inbound media inquiries, and invitations to podcasts or research collaborations.”

The real signal, Jamie adds, appears when external analysts start referencing the company’s data independently.

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Crypto markets now move with macro capital

Jamie also confirms that crypto’s relationship with news has fundamentally changed. In earlier cycles, a single headline could move markets within hours. Today, price actions are increasingly shaped by macro capital flows, because

“Crypto has matured into a macro-sensitive asset class.”

As sector valuations reached multi-trillion-dollar levels, individual headlines naturally stopped carrying such influence.

With nearly $44 billion flowing into Bitcoin ETFs in 2025, institutional capital now plays a structural role in the market. In this environment, narratives matter less than fundamentals.

Utility is becoming crypto’s growth model

Reflecting on the conversation, one pattern becomes clear: the crypto industry is gradually shifting away from narrative-driven growth toward functional adoption.

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Wallets are used not just for trading but for payments, transfers, and yield farming. Users expect reliability rather than explanations. And as institutional capital becomes a structural force, macro conditions are more important than short-term hype.

In that environment, the logic of marketing changes as well.

“If users don’t need to understand the infrastructure behind the product, the marketing has done its job.”

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Vitalik Buterin Proposes Human-Verified AI Wallets for Crypto Transactions

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Vitalik Buterin Increases ETH Selling as Price Falls Below $2K


Buterin proposed AI-assisted wallets where algorithms suggest transaction plans but users must manually confirm large transfers.

Vitalik Buterin has outlined his perspective on how artificial intelligence (AI) could redefine the next generation of Web3 wallets.

He also proposed a model where humans remain directly involved in approving high-value transactions.

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AI Will Shape Newer Crypto Wallets

The Ethereum co-founder shared his views on the decentralized social media platform Farcaster, noting that it is “pretty obvious” that the next iteration of wallets will heavily involve AI.

Despite this, Buterin added that he would not trust LLMs with multi-million-dollar transactions or control over large amounts of money. Instead, he gave an approach in which AI systems assist users while leaving the final decision in human hands.

He described an optimal workflow in high-value situations that would involve an AI system proposing a plan, after which a local light client simulates the transaction. The person would then review the intended action and the required outcome before manually confirming it.

However, Buterin warned that this approach must be implemented conservatively with a strong emphasis on security. He suggested that one way to achieve this is by removing decentralized application interfaces from the transaction process. By eliminating dApp user interfaces from the flow entirely, the system could reduce several attack vectors associated with theft and privacy risks.

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The 32-year-old has previously discussed how cryptocurrency and AI could evolve together. He envisions blockchains and the technology working hand-in-hand, with crypto providing the trust, privacy, and economic infrastructure that it needs to operate safely and fairly.

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Proposed AI-Assisted Wallet Workflows

Other developers and community members responded to Buterin’s comments by describing potential implementations of the idea.

Ethereum developer Andrey Petrov suggested two additional scenarios. In the first, a user initiates a transaction as usual while AI analyzes the payload about to be signed. The technology would then attempt to guess their intended action and explain it in plain language, allowing them to confirm whether the transaction accurately reflects what they meant to do.

In the second case, the user either states their intended action directly or relies on the explanation generated in the first step. The AI then tries to reconstruct the transaction independently, without referencing the original amount, to determine whether it arrives at the same outcome. He explained that any differences between the two would show areas that require further review before the process is finalized.

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Another Farcaster user, identified as fkaany, described a framework in which AI plans complex crypto strategies such as multi-hop swaps, yield optimization, and gas minimization.

This would involve a local light client simulating the outcome, which would allow individuals to review a clear summary and manually confirm the transaction, helping reduce risks from blind signing, phishing interfaces, and malicious dApp payloads.

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Vitalik Buterin Backs Minimmit Over Casper FFG for Ethereum’s Consensus Layer

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Nexo Partners with Bakkt for US Crypto Exchange and Yield Programs

TLDR:

  • Minimmit achieves finality in one signing round, replacing Casper FFG’s two-round justification and finalization process. (truncate to fit — 105 chars)
  • The new gadget lowers fault tolerance from 33% to 17%, but raises the unilateral censorship threshold from 67% to 83%.
  • Buterin argues censorship poses a greater threat than finality reversion, as it lacks immediate, verifiable on-chain evidence.
  • Minimmit requires 83% of clients to share a bug before incorrect finalization occurs, giving developers a wider safety margin.

Minimmit has been put forward as a direct replacement for Casper FFG within Ethereum’s consensus layer. Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin recently shared a detailed technical post comparing both finality gadgets.

Casper FFG has long served as a two-round finality mechanism on the network. The proposed system, by contrast, achieves finality in a single round of validator signatures.

The proposal is drawing attention as the Ethereum community continues to evaluate changes to its consensus architecture.

Why the New System Operates in a Single Round

Casper FFG asks each attester to sign a block on two separate occasions. The first signature “justifies” the block, and the second “finalizes” it.

Minimmit cuts this down to a single signing round. This makes the process more efficient for validators across the network.

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The change comes with a direct cost to fault tolerance, though. The new system’s threshold sits at 17%, compared to 33% under Casper FFG.

A smaller portion of malicious stake can therefore disrupt finality under the new model. Still, Buterin’s post makes the case that other properties of the system more than offset this drop.

In the post shared on X, Buterin described himself as a long-standing “security assumptions hawk” in Ethereum’s consensus research. He cited his past push for 49% fault tolerance under synchrony.

He also referenced his work on DAS for dishonest-majority-resistant data availability checks. Despite this record, he stated he is “even enthusiastic” about the proposed design.

The asynchronous network case also differs between the two systems. Under ideal 3SF, finality holds as long as an attacker controls less than 33% of stake.

The proposed gadget lowers that same protection to 17%. In both cases, any reversion of finality triggers massive slashing penalties against offending validators.

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Censorship Resistance and the Broader Security Picture

Buterin’s argument centers on identifying censorship as the more dangerous threat. Unlike finality reversion, censorship produces no immediate, publicly verifiable evidence against the attacker.

A reversion event, on the other hand, results in automatic, large-scale slashing. This asymmetry is a core reason behind his support for Minimmit’s design.

Both systems require an attacker to control over 50% of staked ETH to carry out censorship. The key distinction lies in what happens at higher thresholds.

In 3SF, an attacker above 67% can finalize the chain unilaterally, removing any coordination point for honest validators. The new system raises that threshold to 83%.

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Software bugs present another area where the proposed gadget holds an advantage. Under 3SF, a flaw shared by 67% of client software can accidentally finalize an incorrect chain state.

Minimmit raises that bar to 83%. This wider margin gives developers more time to identify and respond before errors become permanent.

Buterin also addressed the economic argument against finality reversion attacks. With 15 million ETH staked, reverting finality under 3SF would require slashing 5 million ETH, or roughly $10 billion.

He noted that the 17% baseline still represents an enormous deterrent on its own. From there, he argues the proposed system’s other properties make it the stronger overall consensus design for Ethereum.

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Ex-CFO Sentenced to Two Years after Diverting $35M to Crypto Venture

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Ex-CFO Sentenced to Two Years after Diverting $35M to Crypto Venture

Nevin Shetty was convicted of wire fraud related to secretly moving $35 million in funds from a Seattle startup to his own crypto platform in 2022 to use for DeFi investments.

A Seattle judge has sentenced the former chief financial officer of a local startup to two years in prison following his conviction for wire fraud related to a cryptocurrency business.

In a Thursday notice, the US Justice Department said Nevin Shetty would serve two years in prison after he “secretly moved approximately $35 million in company funds to a cryptocurrency platform he controlled as a side business.” He moved the funds to the HighTower Treasury platform in 2022 before a crypto market downturn, resulting in the disclosure of the transfer. 

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According to the DOJ, Shetty was able to transfer the funds without any executives or board members at the Seattle startup knowing about it, then using the money to invest in “high-yield DeFi lending protocols that promised to generate returns of 20% or more.” He initially earned $133,000 in the first month before the collapse of the Terra ecosystem contributed to a significant market downturn. 

“[T]he cryptocurrency investments that Shetty made with the stolen funds soon began declining and by May 13, 2022, the value of the investments was nearly zero,” said the DOJ. “After the $35 million was essentially gone, Shetty told two of his fellow executives what he had done. He was immediately fired.”

Shetty was indicted on charges of wire fraud in May 2023 and found guilty on four counts in November 2025 after a nine-day jury trial. He has been ordered to pay back the stolen funds and be on supervised release for three years after serving his two-year sentence.

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Related: Analysts reject Jane Street ‘10 a.m. dump’ claims, say Bitcoin isn’t easily manipulated

Former FTX CEO is still waiting on an appeal

Shetty’s 2022 case happened months before the collapse of cryptocurrency exchange FTX, which later resulted in the arrest and conviction of its former CEO, Sam “SBF” Bankman-Fried. SBF was sentenced to 25 years in prison in 2024 but has filed to appeal the ruling. As of Friday, the US Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit had not announced any decision since it heard arguments in November.