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Kalshi Faces Class Action Lawsuit Over Khamenei Prediction Market Payout

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Kalshi Faces Class Action Lawsuit Over Khamenei Prediction Market Payout

Prediction markets platform Kalshi is facing a class action lawsuit over the resolution of a market tied to the leadership of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Key Takeaways:

  • Kalshi is facing a class action lawsuit over how it resolved a prediction market on Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
  • Plaintiffs claim the platform denied full payouts by applying a “death carveout” rule after Khamenei’s reported death.
  • Kalshi says the rule was designed to prevent traders from profiting directly from a person’s death.

The lawsuit, filed in the US District Court for the Central District of California, accuses the company of misleading traders in a market titled “Ali Khamenei out as Supreme Leader?”

Plaintiffs claim the platform created expectations that contracts predicting Khamenei’s removal by March 1 would pay out at full value if the outcome occurred.

Kalshi Traders Dispute Payout After ‘Death Carveout’ Rule Applied

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According to the complaint, Khamenei’s death was reported by multiple media outlets on Feb. 28.

Traders holding contracts predicting he would be out of office by the following day expected their “yes” shares to resolve at $1 each, the standard payout for a correct prediction on the platform.

Instead, Kalshi applied a rule known as a “death carveout provision.”

The clause states that if the leader leaves office solely due to death, the market outcome will resolve based on the final traded price rather than paying out the full value of winning contracts.

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The plaintiffs argue that this decision deprived traders of the payouts they believed they had earned.

“Plaintiffs and the proposed class members, who correctly predicted the outcome, did not receive the amounts they were promised,” the lawsuit states.

The complaint alleges that traders were paid amounts that were “arbitrary” and significantly below the expected contract value.

Two named plaintiffs reportedly held roughly $259.84 worth of positions in the market. Overall trading activity in the event exceeded $54 million in volume.

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The legal filing further argues that the rule used to determine the payout was not sufficiently disclosed to users when they entered their trades.

According to the plaintiffs, the death-related clause appeared only in technical market rules that many traders may not have noticed before placing bets.

Public criticism intensified on social media following the market’s resolution. In response, Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour addressed the issue in a post on X, explaining that the platform avoids markets that allow traders to profit directly from a person’s death.

“We don’t list markets directly tied to death,” Mansour wrote. “When potential outcomes involve death, we design the rules to prevent people from profiting from death.”

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He acknowledged that the company could improve how rules are displayed on market pages. Mansour said the situation highlighted the need for clearer user experience design to ensure traders better understand contract conditions before participating.

Kalshi Says Traders Didn’t Lose Money After Market Dispute

Kalshi also reimbursed all trading fees and net losses associated with the market. According to the company, no traders ultimately lost money as a result of the resolution.

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Despite the refunds, the plaintiffs are seeking compensatory damages representing the full value of the expected payouts, along with punitive damages intended to deter similar conduct in the future.

Mansour said the company followed its established rules and emphasized that Kalshi did not generate profit from the market.

The lawsuit arrives as prediction markets gain wider attention. Kalshi recently secured funding at an $11 billion valuation, reflecting the rapid growth of the sector and rising trading activity across event-based markets.

The post Kalshi Faces Class Action Lawsuit Over Khamenei Prediction Market Payout appeared first on Cryptonews.

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How Will BTC’s Price React?

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BTCUSD Mar 7. Source: TradingView


Iran also rejected Trump’s demand for unconditional surrender but apologized to its neighbors.

The war that started last Saturday between Iran on one side and the US and Israel on the other doesn’t seem to be stopping anytime soon, despite Trump’s demands for unconditional surrender.

The POTUS has made a new set of threats after Iran’s president called Trump’s request for the country’s unconditional surrender a “dream.” Nevertheless, Iran’s authorities issued a rare apology to its neighbors for its strikes against numerous sites.

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The US President continued the intense topic by warning that Iran will be hit very hard today. He also threatened that areas and groups of people that were not targeted before might be “under serious consideration for complete destruction and certain death.”

Recall that once the first strikes hit their targets last week, BTC’s price tumbled immediately from $67,000 to $63,000. However, it rebounded to $68,000 during the same day, especially after reports emerged that Iran’s Supreme Leader had been killed during the attacks.

It kept climbing mid-week as the tension grew and hit a monthly high at $74,000 on Wednesday. Nevertheless, it was rejected there, and the weak US jobs report from Friday, as well as Trump’s latest remarks on Iran and Cuba, sent it south to $68,000.

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Today’s developments have left BTC unfazed as it continues to trade at around $68,000. However, more volatility might ensue if Trump’s threats become reality, especially since the crypto market is the only financial industry available for trading during the weekends.

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BTCUSD Mar 7. Source: TradingView
BTCUSD Mar 7. Source: TradingView
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OmniPact Raises $50 Million to Power the Future of Decentralized Trust Infrastructure

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Nexo Partners with Bakkt for US Crypto Exchange and Yield Programs

TLDR:

  • OmniPact raised $50M from anonymous institutional investors and family offices to advance its trust protocol.
  • The funding will cover mainnet development, security audits, and a Q1 2026 testnet launch on schedule.
  • Smart contracts serve as on-chain guarantors, removing all intermediaries from peer-to-peer transactions.
  • OmniPact’s roadmap includes RWA integration and AI agent transaction capabilities across multiple chains. 

OmniPact has secured $50 million in a private funding round to advance its decentralized trust infrastructure. The New York-based protocol is building a trust layer for peer-to-peer transactions involving both physical and digital assets.

A consortium of institutional investors and family offices backed the round, requesting anonymity. The capital will speed up mainnet development, cross-chain integration, and the launch of a decentralized arbitration module, bringing the project closer to full global deployment.

Funds to Drive Mainnet Development and Technical Expansion

A large share of the proceeds will fund the final development of OmniPact’s core contracts. Security audits of the multi-chain infrastructure are also scheduled as part of this phase.

Both steps must be completed before the protocol can advance into public deployment. This work is set to run alongside active engineering efforts on the mainnet.

OmniPact also confirmed that its testnet launch remains on schedule for Q1 2026. This milestone gives the protocol a clear timeline as it moves toward full market entry. Reaching this target would place OmniPact ahead of many competitors in the decentralized commerce sector.

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Part of the capital will also go toward expanding OmniPact’s engineering team. More developers are expected to speed up real-world asset (RWA) integration across the platform. AI agent transaction capabilities are also being developed as part of this funding cycle.

Co-founder and CEO Alex Johnson commented on the raise, stating: “The funding validates our thesis that the future of commerce requires a neutral, transparent, and trustless foundation.”

Johnson added that the infrastructure “eliminates intermediaries entirely, returning power to users.” He further noted that investor confidence would allow the team to bring secure, decentralized custody to a global audience.

Smart Contracts and Decentralized Arbitration as the Trust Layer

OmniPact’s protocol is built to solve the trust problem that persists in peer-to-peer transactions. The platform deploys smart contracts as on-chain guarantors, removing reliance on any centralized platform. Two parties can therefore transact directly, with no third-party intermediary required.

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Furthermore, the protocol pairs algorithmic custody with a built-in decentralized arbitration module. A reputation system operates alongside both tools, reinforcing accountability across all user activity.

Together, these mechanisms support secure and verifiable peer-to-peer asset exchange. The model also removes single points of failure common in traditional escrow services.

Cross-chain integration forms another technical pillar of OmniPact’s core architecture. The protocol is engineered to function across multiple blockchain networks at the same time. This gives the platform access to users operating across different digital asset ecosystems.

Institutional backers expressed confidence in OmniPact’s roadmap at the time of the announcement. They cited the protocol’s capacity to set new standards across both Web4 and traditional commerce.

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Johnson concluded that the round gives the team the resources to “execute our roadmap” and deliver a live, fully operational protocol to a global audience.

 

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European Energy Crisis: How Russia and Qatar Shocks Are Threatening EU Industrial Power

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Nexo Partners with Bakkt for US Crypto Exchange and Yield Programs

TLDR:

  • Europe still imported 2 billion cubic feet per day of Russian LNG last year, half of Russia’s total exports.
  • Qatar supplies 20% of global LNG and declared force majeure, with production halted for at least one month.
  • The U.S. now controls over 50% of Europe’s LNG supply, giving Washington direct leverage over EU energy costs.
  • Gas prices have already surged over 50% as simultaneous supply shocks strain Europe’s limited energy alternatives.

European energy crisis pressures are mounting as Russia redirects LNG exports while Qatar declares force majeure on gas. Europe replaced cheap Russian pipeline gas with costly LNG after the Ukraine war began.

Now two simultaneous supply shocks are hitting the continent at once. Gas prices have already surged over 50% in recent days.

The EU faces limited alternatives and growing concerns about a 2022-style energy crunch that could once again disrupt factories across the region.

Russia Redirects Exports as Qatar Shuts Down Production

Before the Ukraine war, Europe relied on 15 billion cubic feet per day of Russian gas. That supply kept European manufacturing costs competitive for years.

After the conflict began, Europe sourced costlier LNG from the U.S., Qatar, and other producers. The transition raised energy costs for European industry considerably.

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The EU still imported 2 billion cubic feet per day of Russian LNG last year. That volume is roughly half of Russia’s total LNG exports globally. Russia has now announced it will redirect those flows to China and India.

Bull Theory stated on X: “Russia announced it will redirect part of its LNG exports away from Europe to friendly countries like China and India immediately.”

Russia’s move comes before the EU’s 2027 legal ban on Russian gas takes effect. Moscow has clear incentive to act on supply leverage before that deadline.

European policymakers now face a difficult position with limited response time. New supply chains cannot be established quickly enough to fill the gap.

Qatar’s Ras Laffan facility shutdown has added another blow to Europe’s energy position. Qatar supplies 20% of all global LNG and declared force majeure after the closure.

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Normal production is not expected to resume for at least one month. Europe had relied on Qatari LNG as a central part of its post-Russia supply plan.

U.S. Leverage Grows While European Industry Faces Closures

The United States now supplies over 50% of Europe’s LNG. This gives Washington leverage over European energy costs and industrial policy.

European manufacturers must either absorb higher costs or relocate operations to North America. Bull Theory noted: “This effectively allows the U.S. to weaponize energy costs, forcing European factories to either pay a massive premium or relocate.”

Unlike China and India, Europe has not built diverse energy supply chains. Both nations secured alternatives that shielded them from current disruptions.

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Europe, by contrast, faces simultaneous shocks with very few substitutes. Brussels is caught between U.S. bargaining pressure and a supply gap that diplomacy cannot quickly fill.

If the Hormuz blockade continues for weeks, a second wave of factory closures becomes likely. A similar pattern to 2022 could emerge, with permanent industrial losses for the European energy crisis.

The EU’s manufacturing standing faces direct structural pressure as a result. The outcome depends on events largely outside Europe’s control.

Russia still earns billions from the EU despite current tensions. The coming 2027 ban removes Moscow’s incentive to keep flows stable.

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Europe has few tools to address a supply failure of this scale. The energy challenge now extends well beyond what Brussels can manage alone.

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Kalshi, Polymarket Eye $20B Valuations in Potential Fundraising: WSJ

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Kalshi, Polymarket Eye $20B Valuations in Potential Fundraising: WSJ

Prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket are reportedly exploring new fundraising rounds that could value the companies at around $20 billion each, roughly double their most recent valuations.

Both platforms have held preliminary discussions with potential investors about raising fresh capital at the elevated valuation, the Wall Street Journal reported on Friday, citing people familiar with the matter. The report noted that the negotiations remain at an early stage and may not result in deals or secure the targeted valuation.

Kalshi currently operates in the United States and offers markets allowing users to wager on outcomes tied to sports, politics, the economy and cultural events. The company was last valued at about $11 billion in December when it raised $1 billion from investors including Paradigm and Sequoia Capital.

Founded in 2018 by Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara, Kalshi received approval from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission in 2020 to operate as a regulated exchange for event-based markets. The platform has since expanded rapidly and recently surpassed a $1 billion revenue run rate, with some estimates placing the figure closer to $1.5 billion.

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Related: Kalshi, Polymarket face trading halt in Nevada after court rulings

Polymarket plans US launch later this year

Polymarket, launched in 2020 by Shayne Coplan, remains inaccessible to US users without a virtual private network but plans to introduce a regulated domestic version of its platform later this year. The company was valued at roughly $9 billion in October after Intercontinental Exchange, the owner of the New York Stock Exchange, agreed to invest up to $2 billion.

Both platforms have drawn attention from lawmakers and regulators. As Cointelegraph reported, US Democratic lawmakers are drafting legislation to regulate prediction markets after suspiciously timed bets on the timing of US and Israeli strikes on Iran raised insider-trading concerns.