Connect with us

Business & Hustles

Novo obesity strategy as Eli Lilly extends lead

Published

on

Eli Lilly gaining in GLP-1 market over Novo Nordisk, earnings show

The Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk logos.

Mike Blake | Tom Little | Reuters

Every time Novo urges investors to look ahead, Eli Lilly gives them another reason to look back at its widening lead over the Danish drugmaker. 

Novo this week laid out an ambitious strategy to reignite growth beyond its top-selling Wegovy and Ozempic injections, which face patent expirations in key markets in the early 2030s. At its Capital Markets Day on Monday, the company promised a pipeline of potential blockbuster products, including drugs that would diversify from its core area of obesity and diabetes. 

Advertisement

But Wall Street so far isn’t convinced by Novo’s road map. Investors pummeled the drugmaker’s stock, underwhelmed by growth targets that matched industry averages rather than outpacing them. They were also skeptical of the lack of clarity around a near-term turnaround plan.

At the same time, Lilly continues to chip away at its rival’s market share — including in the burgeoning obesity pill space. 

Novo hopes to keep its early lead in the oral weight loss market after the successful launch of the Wegovy pill, months ahead of Lilly’s rival pill, Foundayo. Novo CEO Mike Doustdar told CNBC on Tuesday that early adoption suggests patients may have been waiting for an alternative to injections.

“If that continues to the extent that we have seen, then yes, mathematically, by the end of the decade, there is going to be a larger portion on the pill than injectable,” he said.

Advertisement

But Lilly is hot on its heels, backed by its commercial firepower.

In an exclusive interview with CNBC on Monday, Lilly CEO Dave Ricks said the drugmaker’s new obesity pill, Foundayo, is slowly gaining ground in the U.S. One-third of new GLP-1 pill patients are taking Lilly’s drug, and its share of that oral market is growing “week by week,” Ricks told CNBC in Houston, Texas. 

Lilly is also claiming an early lead in the newly established Medicare market for obesity drugs, after the federal program started covering those treatments in July. Ricks said 700,000 seniors have started GLP-1s in Medicare following the start of coverage, and 70% of those patients are on Lilly’s drugs. 

He added that Medicare patients have shown a particular preference for Lilly’s obesity injection Zepbound, which has helped the company become the dominant player in the broader market. Lilly said in August that it held about a 61% share in the U.S. GLP-1 space in the second quarter, while Novo held roughly 39%. 

Advertisement

While investors appeared to want more detail on Novo’s plans for post-Wegovy and Ozempic growth at Monday’s investor event, the drugmaker is betting that there could be more than one successor to the mega-blockbuster franchise. 

For Novo, the challenge is not solely replacing revenue from Wegovy and Ozempic when they lose exclusivity and face more generic competition. It is convincing investors that the company can regain momentum in a GLP-1 market it helped establish years before Lilly came into the picture, even as its rival continues to build its lead. 

Lilly likely to keep its upper hand

Eli Lilly CEO Dave Ricks: One-third of new GLP-1 pill patients are taking Foundayo

Even as Novo works to turn itself around after two bruising years marked by multiple setbacks, analysts say Lilly has several advantages that could help it maintain its spot at the top of the obesity drug market. 

“Lilly is in the leadership position, and we think that they will remain in this strong leadership position, given their substantial commercial advantage, their global initiative to globalize their products further, and then their advanced pipeline of novel candidates as well,” Leerink Partners analyst David Risinger said in an interview. 

Risinger expects Foundayo’s share of the oral GLP-1 market to continue growing, pointing to Lilly’s “tremendous commercial firepower” and greater spending capacity to promote the drug. But Risinger expects Foundayo to eventually dominate the pill market globally, in part because it should be less costly to manufacture at scale than the Wegovy pill.

Advertisement

Foundayo is a small-molecule drug, which can be manufactured differently and more easily at scale than peptide drugs such as Novo’s Wegovy pill and existing injectable GLP-1s. While Foundayo leads to less weight loss on average than the Wegovy pill, it doesn’t carry any food and water restrictions, which could be a selling point for some patients. 

Novo executives this week did not directly answer questions about whether Foundayo is easier to manufacture and scale. Novo is investing billions in manufacturing facilities and, executives said this week, the company aims to be able to increase the number of patients on its GLP-1 drugs tenfold by 2030. Executives have repeatedly said supply is not an issue and that Novo will not face the same shortages it did with injectable versions in the earlier days of Ozempic and Wegovy. 

For Lilly, Zepbound’s higher efficacy than the original doses of Wegovy has also been key to securing its market share lead over Novo in the injectable space. Novo has sought to narrow that efficacy gap with a higher-dose version of Wegovy launched this year, which leads to roughly similar weight loss as Zepbound. 

But Lilly is not standing still. 

Advertisement

The company has a pipeline of next-generation obesity drugs that could extend its lead beyond Zepbound and Foundayo, Risinger said. That includes retatrutide, a triple-agonist that targets three gut hormones and has produced greater weight loss than existing obesity drugs in clinical trials. Lilly plans to seek approval for the drug in the first quarter of 2027. 

Lilly is also developing a weekly injection that targets the amylin receptor, a pathway involved in appetite and satiety that differs from those targeted by existing treatments. Risinger said the drug has “much greater potential than the Street currently realizes,” particularly because a large population of patients does not tolerate or respond adequately to GLP-1 drugs.

“We’re quite enthusiastic about the company’s pipeline for follow-on agents beyond Zepbound and Foundayo,” Risinger said.

While investors have been laser-focused on the headline weight loss number of Novo and Lilly’s next-generation drugs, Novo sees a fragmented market ahead. 

Advertisement

Chief Scientific Officer Martin Holst Lange told CNBC this week that the breadth of Novo’s future pipeline would give physicians and patients more options and increase uptake. The company is studying the effect of new drugs on factors like tolerability, muscle preservation, their effect on obesity-linked conditions, convenience and more.

 “We can’t do that with one single drug,” Lange said. 

Novo bets on its next generation 

Mike Doustdar, left, CEO of Novo Nordisk, and David Ricks, CEO of Eli Lilly, listen as President Donald Trump speaks in the Oval Office during an event about weight loss drugs on Nov. 6, 2025.

Andrew Caballero-Reynolds | Afp | Getty Images

Advertisement

For Novo, the answer to Lilly’s dominance is a sweeping bet on what comes next.

Novo is targeting the launch of more than five potential multi-blockbuster drugs by 2030 and more than 150 billion Danish kroner, or about $23 billion, in pipeline sales by 2035. It also plans to have at least five Phase 3 programs in obesity and diabetes and another five across other therapeutic areas, as it tries to diversify its pipeline. 

The scale of that plan highlights the problem Novo is trying to solve. It has patent protection on semaglutide, the active ingredient in Wegovy and Ozempic, until 2032. Those two drugs account for roughly two-thirds of Novo’s sales, racking up combined sales of $31 billion in 2025.

Novo needs to convince investors that its pipeline of new drugs can fill the hole when generic competitors enter the market. So far, it hasn’t been able to shake off a multiyear stock selloff after a series of setbacks. 

Advertisement

The new lineup the company is banking on includes CagriSema, Novo’s combination of semaglutide and a drug called cagrilintide that targets amylin, which is expected to launch early next year. That will be followed by standalone cagrilintide and a higher-dose version of CagriSema in 2028, among other new obesity products. Wall Street isn’t particularly excited about CagriSema, whose previous late-stage clinical trials disappointed investors because the drug showed weight loss efficacy below expectations. 

Novo, however, maintains CagriSema is effective and differentiated enough to be commercially viable. Lange told CNBC individualized doses may be the way forward for the company’s next big bet and highlighted new late-stage data released this week. It showed CagriSema produced greater weight loss than tirzepatide — the active ingredient in Zepbound and Lilly’s Mounjaro — in a head-to-head trial among people with Type 2 diabetes. 

But those results came with caveats: The study used lower doses of the two drugs, and tirzepatide previously outperformed CagriSema in a separate head-to-head Phase 3 trial using higher doses of both treatments. 

Novo CEO on M&A: Let’s see where the gaps are

Meanwhile, Novo is still betting on the growth of the obesity pill market. 

Novo believes market share isn’t the only measure of success investors should look at going forward. The sheer volume matters too, Doustdar told CNBC, highlighting that the obesity market can still grow significantly.

Advertisement

Novo plans to scale manufacturing capacity enough to serve 15 million people taking oral obesity treatments by 2030, and has said pills could ultimately account for as much as half of the global obesity drug market. The company says its Wegovy pill has already reached 7 million U.S. prescriptions, with 90% of those sales coming through cash-pay channels. 

The problem is that investors appear to be demanding more than a promising pipeline. 

Analysts on Monday pressed Novo executives on their pricing assumptions, questioning whether the company’s next pipeline of drugs can sustain premium price points once Wegovy and Ozempic lose exclusivity. 

Novo’s 2026 to 2030 revenue outlook also targets growth in line with its pharmaceutical peers, rather than a return to the outsized growth from when Wegovy and Ozempic first boomed.

Advertisement

That leaves Novo with a difficult balancing act. It has to defend its existing obesity franchise against Lilly while simultaneously investing in the drugs that are supposed to replace it. 

Continue Reading
Click to comment

You must be logged in to post a comment Login

Leave a Reply

Business & Hustles

OpenAI rebrands AI agents as ‘dots’ amid security fears

Published

on

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman standing on stage at his company's annual developer conference in front of a screen with "dots" displayed behind it.

OpenAI has chosen to rename new versions of artificial intelligence tools widely known as agents. They are now being called “dots.”

Company boss Sam Altman, speaking in San Francisco on Tuesday during OpenAI’s yearly event for technology developers, referred to “dots” as “remarkably capable, always-on agents that can handle really anything you can think of.”

OpenAI in recent months has come under intense scrutiny as internal tests of its AI agents have revealed often unexpected and occasionally harmful actions, leading to more public and government fears.

Dots, however, were pitched as brightly colored cute cartoons meant to function as digital assistants for people with busy lives.

Advertisement

The dots, Altman said, “can handle really anything you can think of.”

A glossy video was shown during the event, with people speaking to and naming animated versions of their “dots,” then giving them various tasks, like building a website and booking afterschool activities for their children.

Speaking about “my dot,” Altman almost entirely eschewed referring to the tool as an agent, which has been in common use for years. AI agents are essentially AI chatbots that are programmed to operate somewhat autonomously.

“You just give your dot a responsibility… and your dots will just get to work and keep working,” Altman added.

Advertisement

The day prior to OpenAI’s Tuesday event, the company said it was delaying the launch of its latest model due to certain safety issues that showed up during internal testing.

Since July, the company has been dealing with a series of issues with its AI agents acting improperly. It has faced unprompted hacking into the AI platform Hugging Face, posting to third-party websites images that AI agents took from ChatGPT user chats, and accessing non-public information maintained by the Australian government.

OpenAI, as well as rival AI firm Anthropic, previously delayed public release of certain AI models due to potential risks, mostly pertaining to cybersecurity or hacking concerns.

Both companies also expect to be listed on the public stock market in the coming months. Anthropic likely will do so this year, while OpenAI is poised for 2027.

Advertisement

And both companies have lately been clear that they believe AI poses a genuine risk on a large scale, be it to public infrastructure or public safety.

Speaking last week to the UN, Altman pleaded for “national and international” AI standards on measuring the capabilities of an AI tool, assessing related risks, AI safeguards, and the degree to which human oversight over such tools is maintained.

Dario Amodei, the head of Anthropic, told the UN that if the speeding development of AI was not properly managed and overseen, future versions of the technology “could be a risk to humanity as a whole.”

Advertisement
Continue Reading

Business & Hustles

UK chancellor uses bitcoin to mock Nigel Farage

Published

on

UK chancellor uses bitcoin to mock Nigel Farage

UK Chancellor of the Exchequer John Healey has compared Nigel Farage’s fiscal policies to a “BTC account” handled by one of the UK’s most financially irresponsible prime ministers.

UK Chancellor of the Exchequer! “Don’t make me laugh,” John Healey has compared Nigel Farage’s fiscal policies to a “BTC account” handled by one of the UK’s most financially irresponsible prime ministers.

This is from Healey the most useless piece of communist crap ever appointed to this position. This man is really as stupid as they come. Support the British people? NO, he supports the communist socialist failed agenda and the EU, like the rest of Labour’s traitor MPs. Certainly not you the British people, and you voted for the new Communist socialist Islamic republic of Britain.

Now he and Burnham are going to piss all over you while calling for another referendum on rejoining the dictatorship called the EU, OH, AND THEY WILL USE THE WORD DEMOCRACY, SOMETHING THEY DON’T SUPPORT AND NEVER HAVE.

Advertisement

Healey’s jab at the Reform leader during Labour’s 2026 party conference referred to the perceived economic failure of the UK’s shortest-serving prime minister, Liz Truss.

Truss’s financial policies were widely criticised for their negative impact on financial markets. This led to a rebellion from several Tory MPs, and she was forced to resign within 44 days of her premiership.

Healey appeared to suggest that a “BTC account” is an equally financially irresponsible form of finance, and that only by pairing it with Truss would you recreate the “fantasy funding” ideals of Nigel Farage.

Healey’s comments upset a lot of Bitcoiners, who claimed his “derogatory” description of a “BTC account” demonstrated “staggering ignorance.”

Advertisement

Freddie New, CEO of the BTC Lightning transaction fee firm B HODL, said Healey is “gleefully ignorant that he thinks it is possible to have a ‘BTC account.’”

UK podcaster Peter McCormack said, “Healey making a dismissive joke about Bitcoin shows that he likely has a woeful understanding of economics, particularly scarcity.”

Most criticisms were technical and took offence at the use of the word “account,” which contrasts with the phrase “crypto wallet” used by crypto holders.

Healey wants a ‘new age of industrialisation’

Advertisement

Healey was defence secretary under Sir Keir Starmer’s leadership before he resigned in June. He argued that the government wasn’t willing to spend enough on national defence. 

During yesterday’s conference, Healey announced new measures to support a “new age of industrialisation,” which includes a £300 million investment from Rolls-Royce toward its factories, and £6 billion in government contracts to build new submarine docks. 

A so-called “Union Learning Fund” was also announced, as were a National Wealth Fund to help create 130,000 jobs by 2030, and a £100 million-backed local apprenticeship scheme. 

Got a tip? Send us an email securely via Protos Leaks. For more informed news and investigations, follow us on X, Bluesky, and Google News, or subscribe to our YouTube channel.

Advertisement

Source link

Source link

Advertisement
Continue Reading

Business & Hustles

El Pollo Loco to open first New York restaurant

Published

on

El Pollo Loco to open first New York restaurant

El Pollo Loco will open its first New York City restaurant next year as the California chain looks to become a national player.

El Pollo Loco has closed three development agreements for a total of 15 restaurants in the New York area over the next five years, the company announced on Tuesday. The first location will open in Queens in mid-2027.

Founded in Mexico in 1975, El Pollo Loco opened its first U.S. restaurant in Los Angeles. The majority of its locations are still concentrated in California, but its footprint has grown to more than 500 restaurants across 10 states. It is best known for its bone-in grilled chicken, although its menu has grown.

CEO Liz Williams wants to make El Pollo Loco into a national chain. To expand outside its Southwestern stronghold, El Pollo Loco will open restaurants on the East Coast and then move its way back to the West, she said.

Advertisement

To succeed in new markets, the chain will have to build its brand awareness in a crowded space where consumers are watching their budgets.

“Being a 50-year-old brand, people have seen it over the years and have always had that curiosity, but we have our work cut out,” Williams said.

Under Williams’ leadership, El Pollo Loco has embarked on a turnaround focused on modernizing its restaurants and expanding its menu into more convenient options, like wraps and chicken tenders. The efforts have started to pay off for the chain, which has reported three straight quarters of same-store sales growth.

“In the current quarter, we’ve expanded margins, and the business model is healthy overall,” Williams said. “The brand has gotten even stronger and healthier.”

Advertisement

El Pollo Loco has also been expanding quickly during her tenure. When she began in March 2024, the chain was in just six states. Now, it is in 10. And while it opened nine restaurants last year, El Pollo Loco is projecting 10 to 18 new locations by the end of 2026.

Investors like the company’s trajectory. Shares of El Pollo Loco have climbed 44% over the last year. The S&P 500 rose more than 15% over the same period.

Its comeback coincides with a challenging time for the restaurant industry. Burger and taco chains have been facing soaring costs for beef. Consumers have been dining out less frequently to save money, which has intensified competition between eateries.

El Pollo Loco has also had to contend with more competition as restaurants aim to cash in on growth in the chicken category. McDonald’s and Taco Bell — Williams’ former employer — have expanded their chicken options in recent years, fueled by consumer market research. And chicken-focused chains have been expanding quickly, from newcomer Dave’s Hot Chicken to Southern names like Zaxby’s and Raising Cane’s.

Advertisement

In 2024, El Pollo Loco was the eighth-largest chicken chain by U.S. sales, with 2.1% market share, according to Barclays.

But with its focus on grilled chicken and Mexican-inspired flavors, El Pollo Loco stands out from the crowd, Williams said.

“Everyone is talking about wanting to eat a little better and really thinking through their choices,” Williams said. “Everyone loves fried chicken … However, in terms of what you’re able to eat every single day, grilled chicken is just a better option.”

The expansion news comes as El Pollo Loco shakes up its leadership.

Advertisement

The company on Friday said in a regulatory filing that Damon Thomas will join the company as chief operating officer. He joins the company from Shake Shack.

Tara Hinkle was also recently tapped as the chain’s new chief development officer. She previously held roles at The Coffee Bean & Tea Leaf, Taco Bell and Starbucks before joining the company in July.

Correction: This story was updated to reflect that Williams said the company’s brand has gotten stronger and healthier. A previous version misquoted her.

Advertisement

Continue Reading

Business & Hustles

Bangkok floods threaten to shave 0.3 percentage points from Thailand’s 2026 growth

Published

on

Bangkok floods threaten to shave 0.3 percentage points from Thailand’s 2026 growth

Severe flooding in Bangkok and surrounding provinces is projected to reduce Thailand’s 2026 economic growth by 0.3 percentage points, lowering estimates to 2.1%. Immediate losses are estimated at 11 billion baht nationwide, with some assessments ranging up to 33.8 billion baht, and Bangkok bearing the largest share of damage.

The capital experienced significant rainfall that overwhelmed drainage systems, disrupting transport, commerce, and supply chains, particularly affecting small businesses. The government declared special holidays to ease pressure, while banks introduced relief measures. The final economic impact depends on how quickly flooding subsides and whether further disruptions occur.

Thailand’s latest flooding could reduce annual economic growth by 0.3 percentage points this year, as widespread disruption across Bangkok and surrounding provinces weighs on businesses, transport and household spending.

The flooding could lower Thailand’s 2026 growth rate to 2.1%, from an earlier estimate of 2.4%, according to economist Aat Pisanwanich, who was quoted by Reuters in a recent article. Third-quarter growth could decline by approximately 0.5 percentage points to 1.7%.

Advertisement

The immediate economic losses have been estimated at 11 billion baht, or approximately $320 million, nationwide. A separate assessment by Rangsit University placed the potential losses between 16.9 billion and 33.8 billion baht, with a moderate-damage scenario reaching 25.345 billion baht.

Bangkok is expected to bear the largest share of the losses, at approximately 10.586 billion baht. The estimate covers the period from September 24 to 27 and includes disruptions to commerce, services and travel.

Bangkok bears the largest impact

The capital received around 320 millimetres of rain over two to three days, overwhelming drainage systems and flooding entire neighbourhoods. Water levels began to recede in several areas after the rain eased, but residents in some communities remained stranded or dependent on evacuation centres, as was reported by varoius medias like Internazionale.

The economic impact has extended beyond direct damage to buildings and vehicles. Businesses have faced difficulties moving workers, receiving supplies and delivering products, while shops in flooded areas have struggled to reopen.

Advertisement

Transport interruptions have also reduced consumer activity. Residents unable to travel to work or commercial districts have postponed purchases, while companies have incurred additional costs for alternative routes, temporary closures and emergency repairs.

The government declared special holidays for civil servants in Bangkok and three surrounding provinces on September 28 and 29 in an attempt to reduce travel and ease pressure on the transport system. However, the measure also reflects the scale of the disruption facing the Bangkok metropolitan area.reuters

The Stock Exchange of Thailand will continue operating during the special holidays, maintaining trading on the SET, mai, TFEX, LiVEx and related platforms. The decision is intended to preserve financial-market continuity even as parts of the capital remain affected by flooding.nationthailand

Pressure on supply chains

In the other hand, the Federation of Thai Industries has warned companies to protect workers, review transport routes and prepare for further disruption. Water levels in reservoirs and canals remain a concern even after rainfall has eased in parts of the country.

Advertisement

The risk is particularly significant for businesses that depend on just-in-time deliveries. Delays affecting warehouses, roads, ports or industrial facilities can spread quickly through supply chains, even when the original flooding is concentrated in a limited number of districts.

Banks have begun offering relief measures to affected households and companies. Krungthai Bank and Export-Import Bank of Thailand are providing repayment assistance, lower interest rates and additional liquidity to customers facing losses or cash-flow problems.

Those measures could prevent temporary disruption from becoming a wider credit problem. However, debt relief cannot replace lost inventory, damaged equipment or the income businesses lose during forced closures.

The flooding has also exposed differences in economic vulnerability. Large companies may have insurance, backup facilities and alternative suppliers. Small businesses and informal operators often have fewer reserves and are more likely to face a permanent loss of income after several days without sales.

Advertisement

Growth outlook becomes more fragile

The estimated 0.3 percentage-point reduction in annual growth would not by itself push Thailand into recession. But it adds another obstacle to an economy already dealing with moderate expansion, high household debt, external uncertainty and persistent energy costs.

The final impact will depend on how quickly water levels fall and whether additional rainfall causes a second wave of disruption. A rapid recovery could limit the damage, while prolonged flooding could increase losses through reduced production, weaker consumption and delayed investment.

For now, Thailand’s economic response is focused on drainage, emergency assistance and financial relief. The next stage will be more difficult: restoring businesses, repairing infrastructure and determining whether the country’s cities and supply chains are prepared for increasingly frequent climate shocks.

The final economic cost remains uncertain. The Federation of Thai Industries has warned that disruption can spread through supply chains, affecting raw-material deliveries, worker mobility, warehouses and machinery. At the same time, economists have stressed that a rapid recovery in affected areas would limit the damage, meaning the duration of the flooding is now more important than the initial rainfall event.

Advertisement

The floodwaters may recede within days. The economic consequences will last longer, particularly for smaller businesses that cannot afford another interruption before the recovery from this one is complete.

The episode also exposes a longer-term investment issue. Bangkok’s vulnerability to extreme rainfall creates recurring costs for retailers, manufacturers, logistics operators and property owners. Beyond emergency relief, businesses and policymakers face increasing pressure to invest in drainage capacity, flood barriers, water-management systems and continuity planning.

Continue Reading

Business & Hustles

Develop sets $458 million growth capital budget

Published

on

Develop sets $458 million growth capital budget

Growth will continue at Bill Beament-led Develop Global in FY27, following the release of its guidance metrics for the upcoming year.

Continue Reading

Business & Hustles

Dave & Buster’s interim CFO Cory Hatton buys $25,999 in stock

Published

on


Dave & Buster’s interim CFO Cory Hatton buys $25,999 in stock

Continue Reading

Business & Hustles

Market veterans favour value plays over crowded, expensive themes

Published

on

Market veterans favour value plays over crowded, expensive themes
After two difficult years for Indian equities, there is scope for reasonable returns as valuations turn less demanding, according to senior market participants who spoke to ET. Large caps look better placed, while the outlook is more cautious on mid- and small-caps. Financials, manufacturing and consumption are among the preferred themes, while views on technology are sharply divided

NEELESH SURANA, CIO, Mirae Asset Mutual Fund

MARKET OUTLOOK: India looks better positioned than sentiment suggests and is a natural hedge against crowded AI trade. Valuations are no longer a headwind, while domestic fundamentals are sound. Any global trade rotation could be meaningful. Key risks are elevated crude, rising developed market bond yields, El Niño and heavy equity issuance. Overall, we expect low-teens returns.
PREFERRED INVESTMENT STRATEGY: Our strategy is a barbell, combining quality stocks with strong earnings upgrades at sensible valuations with holding sector leaders that have corrected over the past two years and are now in value zone.

THEMES LOOKING ATTRACTIVE: Banking, consumer discretionary, healthcare and manufacturing. Sector leaders, impacted by FPI selling over the last two years, are now attractive.

THEMES TO STAY AWAY FROM: Slow-growth or disruption prone sectors like consumer staples and IT. Cautious on narrative-driven, richly-valued sectors like capital goods.


Read more: Goldman Sachs identifies 42 Indian stocks riding AI build-out

JANAKIRAMAN RENGARAJU, CIO – India Equities Templeton Global Investments

MARKET OUTLOOK: The 12-month base case for Indian equities may not be quite euphoric, but it is constructive. Largecap valuations are more reasonable, while higher mid- and small-cap multiples call for greater prudence. Globally, the picture has deteriorated. Unresolved conflicts have entrenched inflationary pressures, while rising interest rates and heavy fiscal debt reinforce each other. Tariff uncertainty continues to cloud trade growth, while questions are emerging over the viability of massive AI investments, even as enthusiasm and valuations remain elevated.PREFERRED INVESTMENT STRATEGY: Adopt a tone of ‘cautious optimism’ over the medium term.

THEMES LOOKING ATTRACTIVE: Financials, industrials and capital goods, consumption and electronic manufacturing, which are linked to capex pick up, rising affluence and credit growth.

THEMES TO STAY AWAY FROM: Avoid expensive small and mid-caps with weak cash generation and businesses dependent on endless equity funding.

Read more: SIPs offer steady gains as most fund categories beat benchmark indices

ANISH TAWAKLEY, CIO, DSP Mutual Fund

MARKET OUTLOOK: Economy remains in good shape, while valuations are now neutral. This should translate into reasonable market returns broadly in line with earnings growth.

PREFERRED INVESTMENT STRATEGY: Don’t chase narratives that have already played out, rather look at sectors that have been underperforming since the last 2-3 years.

Advertisement

THEMES LOOKING ATTRACTIVE: Private banks, insurance companies, automobiles and cement.

THEMES TO STAY AWAY FROM: Careful about companies where promoters are diluting (either through primary or secondary sales) or where private equity is selling, including IPOs. Promoter dilution and PE sales happen when performance and valuations are close to peaks. Cautious on metals, IT and FMCG. For IT, the problem is not AI but the fact that Indian listed companies are losing market share to GCCs set up in India.

R SIVAKUMAR CIO, Axis Mutual Fund

MARKET OUTLOOK: The outlook is constructive. Economic slowdown over the last few quarters appears to be more cyclical than structural. Valuations in parts of the market remain elevated, particularly within mid- and small-caps.

PREFERRED INVESTMENT STRATEGY: Alpha generation is likely to come from selective stock picking rather than broad market direction. A balanced approach across largecaps, which offer valuation comfort and resilience, and select mid-cap opportunities, which continue to deliver superior earnings growth, remains appropriate.

THEMES LOOKING ATTRACTIVE: Constructive on manufacturing, power and electrification, energy transition, select financials, particularly banks and capital-market-linked businesses, as well as export-oriented companies.

Advertisement

THEMES TO STAY AWAY FROM: Investors should avoid chasing momentum in overcrowded themes. In technology, we remain watchful of disruptions and pricing pressures emerging from AI-led changes in the global IT services landscape

SHANKAR SHARMA, Founder, GQuant

MARKET OUTLOOK: Barring occasional rallies, I do not see the Indian markets outperforming the world or even the peer group. The Vaibhav Suryavanshi Syndrome afflicts Indian companies: domestic success is mistaken for globally transferable skill. Largecaps have thrived on India’s easy pitch, building market capitalisation rather than global scale and brands. When domestic growth fades, competing overseas will require an entirely different mindset. There will be pockets where money is going to be made; but in aggregate, Indian returns will disappoint for the coming year.

PREFERRED INVESTMENT STRATEGY: The future of the Indian stock market lies in getting “techified”. Tech has been my theme in the last 2 years since the bear market started in India and I have actually made money even in this very-very tough market. This is not going to change anytime soon. Pharmaceuticals is also going to be a good place to be in.

THEMES LOOKING ATTRACTIVE: For me, tech is 80% of the allocation and pharma is 20% and there is nothing else that I am interested in India.

THEMES TO STAY AWAY FROM: Companies which service the domestic Indian consumer. That trade is on its way out and this is not where I would deploy a lot of capital.

Advertisement

Add ET Logo as a Reliable and Trusted News Source

Continue Reading

Business & Hustles

Accountancy firm Hazlewoods move to larger offices in Cardiff to support expansion

Published

on

Business Live

The firm has relocated to the South Gate House office scheme

The Cardiff team of Hazlewoods

Accountancy and business advisory firm Hazlewoods has relocated to larger offices in Cardiff to support expansion plans.

Having set up its first office in Wales at the Capital Tower office building in 2024, it has now moved its team of 34 to South Gate House.

Tom Davies, director at Hazlewoods Cardiff, said: “This is an exciting step for Hazlewoods and reflects the progress we have made since launching in the city less than two years ago. We have built a very strong team here and have been really encouraged by the response from both new and existing clients, reflecting our commitment to developing deep relationships across the region.

Advertisement

“The new office gives us the space to continue growing while maintaining the collaborative approach that is such an important part of the way we work.”

Bruce Black, corporate tax director, said: “This move creates the environment we need to continue finding and developing local talent to build the team, while maintaining the high level of service our clients expect from Hazlewoods. It reflects just how positively the Cardiff office has developed in such a short space of time.

“The team in Cardiff has done a great job of growing the business and I look forward to seeing that continue. We have the expertise, ambition and people to build a really strong presence in Wales, and the new office gives the team a great base from which to do that.”

Hazlewoods is one of the largest independent accountants and business advisers in the South West and Wales, with more than 600 employees and a growing presence in Cardiff, alongside its offices in Cheltenham and Bristol.

Advertisement

The firm provides audit, accounting, tax and advisory services to corporate and private clients and is particularly well known for its specialist sector expertise across the UK. Last year, the firm recorded a turnover of £54.3m.

Its managing partner, James Morter, said: “It has been very gratifying to see the way that Hazlewoods has been welcomed into Cardiff. Early on, we identified a gap in the Welsh market for a firm of our size and experience, and when you combine that with the talent pool in the city, it felt like a natural next step.”

Property advisory firm Knight Frank represented Hazlewoods on the deal, while its building consultancy team supported the fit-out of the new space.

Mark Sutton, office agency partner at Knight Frank’s Cardiff office, said: “Hazlewoods was looking for a space that could support its continued growth in Wales, while offering excellent connectivity and the flexibility to create a workplace suited to its needs.

Advertisement

“South Gate House provided the right combination of quality space and a prime city-centre location, and it has been a pleasure to support the team through the move.”

Continue Reading

Business & Hustles

Perpetua Resources at Mining Forum Americas 2026: shift to construction

Published

on


Perpetua Resources at Mining Forum Americas 2026: shift to construction

Continue Reading

Business & Hustles

What Trump’s potential US diesel export ban could mean for you

Published

on

A driver returns a fuel nozzle after refueling a tractor trailer with diesel fuel at a Chevron truck stop in Tracy, California.

For the US economy, a ban could deliver short-term relief at the pump by flooding the domestic market with excess supply.

However, energy analysts warn it could backfire.

David Fyfe, chief economist at Argus Media, notes that cutting off American supply would likely cause international prices to skyrocket.

That would push up global freight, food, and industrial costs, ultimately “feeding inflation back into the global economy”.

Advertisement

“At a stroke, the US’s reputation as a reliable supplier of energy to the world would be shot,” Fyfe added.

Removing more than a million barrels of daily American supply would trigger a fierce bidding war among importing nations in Latin America and Europe.

Sarah Raffoul, analytics manager at Argus Media, noted that while higher international prices would eventually curb demand, the immediate gap would severely strain trade relationships and accelerate global inflation.

Advertisement

Continue Reading

Trending

Copyright © 2025