UK Scrambles for Backup Fuel Supplies as Trump Mulls Diesel Export Ban

Britain is quietly lining up a contingency plan with its European neighbours to tap strategic fuel reserves, as officials brace for the fallout from a possible US ban on diesel exports that could send pump prices across the Atlantic even higher than they already are.

The BBC understands that Energy Minister Martin McCluskey spoke with European counterparts on Thursday to thrash out a coordinated response, with the UK keen to ensure it is not caught flat-footed if Washington follows through on threats to restrict diesel shipments abroad. A government source described the move as prudent preparation rather than panic, noting that reserves built up earlier this year during an earlier coordinated release remain available across Europe.

The urgency is easy to understand. UK diesel prices have already smashed through record territory, with the RAC putting the average cost at 199.79p a litre this week — up sharply from 142.38p not long ago. For hauliers, farmers and millions of ordinary motorists, that is not an abstract market wobble; it is a direct hit to household budgets and business margins at a time when both are already stretched.

At the centre of the storm is Donald Trump, who has floated banning diesel exports from the United States in an effort to force domestic pump prices down ahead of the midterm elections. “We’re thinking about it very seriously,” the US president said over the weekend, framing the idea as straightforward relief for American drivers and truckers. The logic is simple in theory: keep more barrels at home, and supply should push prices down for US consumers.

The trouble is that the rest of the world depends heavily on exactly those barrels. The US ships between 1.2 and 1.5 million barrels of diesel a day to global markets, making it one of the most important suppliers on the planet. Analysts warn that choking off that flow would not simply redistribute pain — it would amplify it. David Fyfe, chief economist at Argus Media, said cutting off American supply would likely send international prices skyrocketing, turning a domestic political fix into an international economic headache.

Britain is particularly exposed. Although its four domestic refineries produce ample petrol, they fall well short of meeting the country’s diesel needs, forcing heavy reliance on imports. That dependence leaves the UK vulnerable to exactly the kind of supply shock a US export ban could trigger, even as the number of diesel vehicles on British roads has been falling — from 15.7 million to 15.1 million over the past year, according to the Department for Transport, with diesel cars down from 10.4 million to 9.8 million.

The diesel squeeze did not start with Trump’s threats. Prices have been climbing globally since fighting between the US, Israel and Iran disrupted the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil and gas normally flows. An export ban from Russia, another major diesel supplier, has piled on further pressure, leaving markets already stretched thin before Washington’s latest intervention entered the picture.

Brussels appears just as alarmed as London. A European Commission spokesperson said there had been “lots of calls, lots of meetings” on the diesel situation in recent days, including high-level contact with the US administration, as European governments weigh their own exposure to any American export curbs. The International Energy Agency’s governing board is due to meet to discuss the wider implications, underscoring how quickly a domestic US political calculation has become an international energy policy concern.

For now, the UK government is striking a reassuring tone, insisting there is no reason to fear outright shortages. “We have a diverse and resilient supply. We continue to engage with our international partners and the UK fuel industry,” a spokesperson said. But that reassurance comes with a caveat: officials are not promising prices will fall, only that supply itself should hold up. Further price rises, the government acknowledges, remain likely.

That is cold comfort for drivers already absorbing record costs at the pump, and for the haulage and agricultural sectors for whom diesel is not a discretionary expense but an operational necessity. Diesel is notoriously harder to refine than petrol, and because so much of the economy — from food distribution to construction to farming — runs on it, demand simply cannot be dialled down in response to price spikes the way it might for other goods.

What happens next largely hinges on a decision in Washington that has little to do with Britain’s energy security and everything to do with American domestic politics. If Trump proceeds with an export ban, the UK’s quiet diplomacy this week suggests it intends to respond collectively with European partners rather than scrambling alone — drawing down shared reserves while hoping that coordinated action can soften a blow that markets, and millions of drivers, are already bracing to feel.