“Near-term crude prices are likely to move in the USD 85-120 range for WTI and USD 90-125 for Brent. If the conflict escalates and supply disruptions persist for several weeks, prices could rise even further, possibly approaching USD 150 per barrel. But in the short term, USD 120 is more likely,” Chainwala said, emphasizing the role of supply disruptions in pushing crude markets higher.

She explained that the ongoing turbulence in the Strait of Hormuz and the state of Hormuz situation has already caused losses of approximately 10-12 million barrels per day.

“This is a significant disruption, not a perceived risk. Earlier this year, the market was facing a glut of 4-5 million barrels per day, but the current losses are offsetting that surplus and pushing the market toward a deficit,” she said.

Chainwala added that emergency reserves, including the International Energy Agency’s 400-million-barrel release, would only cover about 20 days of lost supply, which would be insufficient if the disruption continues for an extended period.

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“Any prolonged disruption through this trade will be bullish for crude oil and negative for other commodities, as it ignites inflation concerns and could delay interest rate cuts,” he noted.
She also addressed potential price corrections. “If the situation de-escalates, the geopolitical premium built into oil prices would vanish. Prices could fall sharply to USD 55-65 per barrel. Before the disruption, oil markets were already bearish due to macroeconomic concerns and a supply glut,” she said.On regional flows, she said the Strait of Hormuz is currently allowing only limited passage.

“Very few barrels are passing through Hormuz — around 2-3 million barrels per day, compared to normal flows of about 20 million barrels per day. Certain countries are receiving preferential access, but overall, the route remains highly restricted,” Chainwala added.

She also discussed demand-side factors, highlighting that China, a major importer of crude, has set a modest growth target of 4.5-5 percent this year with no major stimulus, which may limit sustained price pressure. Seasonal demand during travel months in May and June may have some impact, but other factors are unlikely to hold crude prices at elevated levels for long.

Regarding the domestic market, Chainwala said, “On MCX, crude prices could rise 20-30 percent from current levels of around Rs 8,300, reaching Rs 10,500-11,000, depending on how long the disruption continues.”

She concluded by warning that prolonged conflict or significant escalation could push prices even further, but if negotiations or minor attacks continue without major disruption, the crude market is expected to remain volatile yet within a USD 85-120 range.

The pan-European benchmark STOXX 600 closed 0.5% lower. All major regional bourses were in the red, posting marginal weekly falls.

Industrial stocks were the biggest drags ‌on the index, down ⁠1.8%, ⁠with Siemens Energy down 5.7% and Rolls-Royce off 5.3%.

Miners experienced the biggest percentage loss, down 3.3%, as prices of silver tumbled over 3%, copper fell over 1% and gold prices also ticked lower.

Global markets extended declines this week as the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran approached the two-week mark. U.S. President Donald Trump said the U.S. was going to be hitting Iran “very hard over the next week”, prompting markets to brace for a drawn-out conflict and reassess interest-rate expectations as energy-driven inflation concerns resurfaced.

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Pascal Koeppel, chief investment officer at Vontobel SFA Investment ⁠Management, said ‌that both Iran and the U.S. had interests in stopping the war. Iran’s interest is in re-opening the Strait of Hormuz, he said, while for the U.S. a priority is reining ⁠in mounting defence costs before the midterm elections in November.
“It’s short term in nature and the impact on inflation and rates is not as big as market fear. But at the moment, the fear is larger so the European markets are correcting,” he said. Markets have priced in one quarter-point interest-rate hike by the European Central Bank by the end of the year and see a nearly 75% chance of another similar-sized move, per data compiled by LSEG. This contrasts with expectations earlier in the year that a rate cut was coming.

Oil prices were about 1% ‌higher on Friday, as it became clear that the Strait of Hormuz remained closed.

Energy stocks far outperformed others this week with a gain of nearly 5%. Economically sensitive banks fell again, dropping 1.2%. Standard Chartered and HSBC, the ⁠two global banks most exposed to the war with Iran according to Reuters analysis, extended their monthly declines to over 15% each. Data showed harmonised inflation in France rose 1.1% year-on-year in February, while the British economy grew by 0.2% in the three months to January, below expectations. Among individual moves, BE Semiconductor Industries shares jumped 5.6% after the chip-equipment maker fielded takeover interest, Reuters reported. Berkeley Group cautioned that the conflict in the Middle East was weighing on risk sentiment, while reaffirming its annual profit outlook, sending shares of the home builder 1.5% lower.

Zalando climbed about 7% after Bernstein upgraded the online fashion retailer to “market perform” from “underperform.”

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The bonds will offer yields ranging from 8.70% to 9.10%, with tenure options of 24, 36, 60, and 72 months available.

The flagship company of Kerala-based Muthoot Pappachan Group opened the issue for subscription on Friday. The offer will remain open until March 23.

The base issue size is ₹200 crore, with a greenshoe option to retain oversubscription of up to ₹400 crore, the company said.
“This offering is intended to support onward lending and financing activities, repay/prepay interest and principal on existing debt, and meet general corporate needs,” the company said.

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The bonds are rated ‘AA-/positive’ by Crisil Ratings and ‘AA/stable’ by Brickwork Ratings India, indicating a high degree of safety for the timely servicing of financial obligations.
Muthoot FinCorp, which is not publicly listed, had standalone assets under management of ₹48,122 crore at the end of December, up 63% from the same period a year earlier, driven largely by demand for gold loans.