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80% of Indian stocks are in bear market. Is it time to be greedy or fearful?

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80% of Indian stocks are in bear market. Is it time to be greedy or fearful?
While the Sensex and Nifty have corrected only about 6-7% from their all-time highs, a brutal bear market has been quietly gutting the broader listed universe for eighteen months. Among all listed companies with a market capitalisation above Rs 1,000 crore, more than 64% have fallen 30% or more from their all-time highs. Nearly 78% have fallen 20% or more. In other words, approximately 80% of India’s listed universe above Rs 1,000 crore is already deep in bear market territory and the picture turns bleaker still if smaller companies are included.

This is the finding of a new report from Monarch AIF, which describes the past year-and-a-half as a “peculiar phenomenon” in Indian markets: a phase of simultaneous time and value correction where indices stay elevated on the back of a narrow band of large-cap stocks, while hundreds of small and midcap companies have been silently decimated. That divergence, the firm says, is “very rare.”

And now, with the US-Israel strikes on Iran having pushed geopolitics back to the forefront, the Sensex fell over 1,000 points Monday, Nifty closed below 24,900. Investors now face a compounding of forces: a market already bruised by 18 months of stealth selling, now confronting a crude oil shock and the spectre of a widening Middle East conflict.

The question is whether this is the moment to run, or the moment to act.

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Bear market hidden in plain sight

“This feels less like a visible crash and more like a stealth sell-off, especially in the broader small and mid-cap space,” said ArunaGiri N, Founder, CEO and Fund Manager at TrustLine Holdings. “And historically, such phases are painful, but they are also when long-term opportunity quietly begins to build.”


He offered three recent examples of what he called “disproportionate price action on the downside.” UPL shares fell 18% or more following a group restructuring announcement, despite high debt not being new information as the market is in a mood now to magnify potential risks, he said. IDFC Bank lost over Rs 14,000 crore in market capitalisation over a potential fraud loss valued at Rs 590 crore. Dishman Carbogen Amcis fell more than 10% following a mild rating agency downgrade. “One can go on,” ArunaGiri said. “Markets are in a less forgiving mood.”
Yet within the wreckage, something has changed. Monarch AIF’s analysis shows that currently around 36% of all stocks above Rs 1,000 crore market cap are trading at trailing twelve-month P/E multiples below 25x, up from just 25% in September 2024. Several small but fast-growing companies are now available at one-year forward P/E multiples of less than 20x.The firm also points to the fundamental strength of smaller companies that the sell-off has obscured. Profit before tax for the bottom-half of the listed universe by market cap grew at a CAGR of approximately 20% between 2019 and 2025, with PAT growth running at 25%. Net debt-to-equity for these companies has collapsed to just 0.13x. Revenue CAGR for the bottom half over the past three years stood at 14%, versus 11% for the top half.

Also read: Market crash wipes out Rs 8 lakh cr within minutes; 4 reasons behind today’s rout

Rate cuts add further fuel. Monarch AIF notes that after every rate-cut cycle involving more than 100 basis points, midcap and small-cap indices have staged sharp recoveries, with smaller companies tending to benefit more from operating leverage, leading to better margins and earnings growth.
The firm expects further earnings improvement in Q4, with PAT growth in Q3 having been partly suppressed by labour code provisioning. Trade deal announcements with the US and EU are also expected to support export-oriented small caps, with earnings upgrades potentially following through into FY27.

Iran war adding to the pain

Into this already complex picture, the Iran escalation has now landed. History, however, offers some perspective. Elara Securities notes that over the past 25 years of Middle East crises, the median Nifty return is flat at one week and one month, and up 17% at one year. The sell-off deepens meaningfully only when geopolitics morphs into a sustained energy shock, as in the 2011 Arab Spring, when Brent rose 20–25% in the first month and equity drawdowns widened sharply. The Russia-Ukraine episode remains the closest stress template on record.

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Emkay Global’s base case is that the current hostilities end in one to two weeks, with markets recovering sharply as they did after the October 2023 and June 2025 episodes. Jefferies, while flagging India’s deep economic linkages with the Middle East — 17% of exports, 55% of crude supply, 38% of remittances — notes that recent regional conflicts have been temporary, and that “a dip could be a buying opportunity.”

Also read: Petronet LNG shares crash 8% after issuing force majeure notices amid Middle East hostilities

Axis Mutual Fund was equally measured. “Markets price duration and economic impact, not emotion,” the fund house said. “Once it becomes clear that supply disruptions are manageable, policy frameworks remain intact and growth is not structurally impaired, risk premiums compress. For India — where growth is driven by domestic consumption, capex recovery, digitisation and manufacturing realignment — geopolitical shocks are typically interruptions, not inflection points.”

The fund house pointed to a consistent pattern across fifteen years of conflict-driven sell-offs: “Investors who exited equities during earlier conflict-driven sell-offs frequently missed the recoveries that followed — sometimes within a relatively short span.”

What should investors do?

Back to the underlying bear market question. ArunaGiri’s prescription is blunt: “It is time to put capital to work, not to time the bottom.” He acknowledges the challenge — “that approach will call for a stubborn stomach to digest temporary and notional losses” — but argues that the number of opportunities offering attractive free cash flow and payout yields alongside high growth potential “have witnessed a sharp surge. Exciting times for bottom-up stock pickers.”

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Monarch AIF agrees, saying the risk-reward for bottom-up stock picking has turned “favourable” in a way that typically only happens after a bear market has run its course.

The indices may not be telling you that the bear market is here. But for 80% of Indian stocks, it very much is and some of the most experienced voices on Dalal Street are quietly starting to shop.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times.)

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Energy shock raises margin risks for EU chemicals, JPM warns

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Newcastle and Gateshead to showcase transformative schemes on world stage at Mipim 2026

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‘Newcastle is rivalling cities across the world when it comes to setting the standard for development and regeneration’

A concept image showing new apartment blocks surrounded by a garden built on a disused railway line

Plans for the redevelopment of the Forth Goods Yard next to Central Station in Newcastle upon Tyne. (Image: 5plus Architects/blocwork/Platform 4)

Newcastle and Gateshead are gearing up to showcase their portfolio of projects to the world at this month’s prime property event Mipim. Mipim 2026 will see more than 20,000 international delegates, including real estate investors, developers and civic leaders gather in Cannes from March 9 to 13 for the annual networking event.

This year the delegation is set to shine a light on transformative schemes including Pilgrim Street in Newcastle and Baltic Quarter in Gateshead. Organisers say culture-led regeneration, investment in knowledge-intensive industries and placemaking are the key themes for Invest Newcastle, the public and private partnership delivered by NewcastleGateshead Initiative.

The Newcastle delegation will be joined by Newcastle City Council, Gateshead Council as well as Eldon Square, NCG, Ryder Architecture, Avison Young, FaulknerBrowns, Legends Global, Rolton, Aptus, Atkins Realis, CAA ICON, Hanro, igloo, Naylors, NE1, North East Combined Authority, Todd Milburn and Ward Hadaway.

One Founders Place has been described as the landmark office development at Stephenson Quarter.

One Founders Place could be the next piece of Newcastle Stephenson Quarter to take shape.(Image: Allford Hall Monaghan Morris )

Invest Newcastle will host a three-day programme of panel discussions, presentations, and networking events on their pavilion, highlighting the region’s growing strengths in the creative and cultural sectors, retail, and knowledge-intensive industries such as life sciences and space.

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The programme will provide a unique platform to connect with global decision-makers and industry leaders who will share insights and learnings. Speakers on the programme hail from the likes of the New York City Housing Authority, Birmingham City Football Club, Cambridge Innovation Centre and Homes England.

With the overall Mipim theme of ‘Housing Matters’, key residential schemes such as Forth Yards and MetroGreen will be discussed in two panels on the Wednesday and Thursday. Other discussions include shaping cities with Gen Z, delivering lab spaces that lead to medical discoveries, fuelling the AI boom and exploring the space industry.

Pam Smith, chief executive of Newcastle City Council, said: “This year’s programme is a real reflection of the city’s ambitions and how far we have come. Newcastle is rivalling cities across the world when it comes to setting the standard for development and regeneration.

“We understand the clear links between designing the future, the built environment, and the creative industries and MIPIM is one of the key platforms for us to showcase Newcastle and Gateshead’s story. I am looking forward to having conversations with investors from around the world with a shared vision for how we can continue to shape the future of Newcastle, ensuring we are creating a globally competitive place that delivers for our residents.”

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Last year saw the North East delegation highlight revamped plans for the former Premier Inn Hotel in Newcastle, with a hotel, housing, bars and restaurants, amongst its prime property opportunities.

To find all the planning applications, traffic diversions, road layout changes, alcohol licence applications and more in your community, visit the Public Notices Portal.

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Dollar rally pauses; investors jittery over energy price surge

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Dollar rally pauses; investors jittery over energy price surge


Dollar rally pauses; investors jittery over energy price surge

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Bath & Body Works Reports Lower Profit

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Bath & Body Works Reports Lower Profit

Bath & Body Works BBWI 1.77%increase; green up pointing triangle reported lower fourth-quarter profit, but said its strategy pivot to refocus on its core products was making progress.

The personal-care retailer posted net income of $403 million, or $1.99 a share, down from $453 million, or $2.09 a share, the year prior. Analysts polled by FactSet expected $1.78 a share.

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Metro Bank profit hits 15-year high as SME lending surges

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Shares soared as FTSE 250 lender swung to £98m profit

A general view of a Metro Bank in Sheffield.

A Metro Bank branch in Sheffield(Image: PA)

Metro Bank has returned to the black as the firm’s shift towards small business lending delivered a boost in revenue.

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The FTSE 250 lender posted a pre-tax profit of just over £98m – a 15-year peak and significant turnaround from losses of £14m the previous year.

The reversal arrived as Metro recorded 67 per cent growth in new corporate, commercial and small and medium-sized enterprise (SME) lending – a sector the bank has targeted as central to its recovery plan.

Shares in the company climbed as much as seven per cent following the announcement to 122.36p. Over the past 12 months, the stock has gained more than 40 per cent.

Turnover at the firm increased 16 per cent to just above £585m as lending in the group’s focus segment expanded 56 per cent year-on-year to £5.2bn, as reported by City AM.

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Metro is amongst several banks that have moved into the SME lending market amid a retreat from industry heavyweights, with the sector typically delivering higher margins for lenders as they can command elevated interest rates.

The segment also emphasises relationship-building with businesses compared to lending to large corporations, which can seek the most competitive debt globally.

“We are capturing market share in our target segments and have a deep pipeline of attractive lending opportunities,” said Daniel Frumkin, Metro’s chief executive.

He noted that the bank’s emphasis on the “execution of our strategy and pivot to high margin business” had contributed to a surge in profits whilst reducing expenses.

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Operating costs plummeted seven per cent year-on-year to £473m, surpassing previous predictions of a four to five per cent decrease.

The bank has outlined plans for its return on tangible equity – a crucial measure of profitability – to more than double from the current level of 6.4 per cent over the forthcoming 6 months and nearly triple over 18 months.

The lender is also anticipated to greatly benefit from the alterations to the MREL regime announced in Rachel Reeves’ regulatory reforms at Mansion House last year.

Established in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, minimum requirement for own funds and eligible liabilities (MREL) rules impose strict tailored requirements for banks with assets between £15-25bn. The Bank of England is poised to raise the threshold following consultation.

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Metro has been reclassified as a transfer firm under the system, a move that liberates the bank’s balance sheet with reduced costs. The company stated it unlocks “significant capacity for growth”.

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GameStop (GME) Shares Edge Lower in Quiet Trading as Ryan Cohen Eyes Transformative Acquisition

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GameStop (GME) Shares Edge Lower in Quiet Trading as Ryan

GameStop Corp. (NYSE: GME) shares closed modestly lower Tuesday, reflecting cautious investor sentiment as the video game retailer navigates a strategic pivot under CEO Ryan Cohen while facing persistent challenges in its core brick-and-mortar business.

GameStop (GME) Shares Edge Lower in Quiet Trading as Ryan
GameStop (GME) Shares Edge Lower in Quiet Trading as Ryan Cohen Eyes Transformative Acquisition

GME ended at $23.82, down $0.38 or 1.57% from Monday’s close of $24.20. The stock opened at $23.78, traded in a narrow range between $23.45 and $24.17, and saw volume of about 4.1 million shares — near the recent average but below the frenzied levels of past meme-stock surges. After-hours trading showed a slight dip to around $23.74-$23.76.

The decline came amid broader market volatility tied to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, though GME’s moves appeared more company-specific. The retailer has been in the spotlight for Cohen’s aggressive transformation efforts, including a massive performance-based compensation package approved in January 2026 and speculation about a blockbuster acquisition using its substantial cash reserves.

Cohen, who became chairman in 2021 and CEO shortly after, received a long-term incentive award potentially worth up to $35 billion, contingent on elevating GameStop’s market capitalization to $100 billion and achieving $10 billion in cumulative performance EBITDA. The package is entirely “at-risk,” with no base salary, aligning Cohen’s interests tightly with shareholders. He has personally invested heavily, including back-to-back purchases of 500,000 shares each in January at around $21 per share, boosting his stake to about 9.2% and signaling confidence in the turnaround.

In a January interview with The Wall Street Journal, Cohen outlined ambitions to grow GameStop from an $11 billion company into one valued over $100 billion through a “very big” acquisition of a publicly traded firm, likely in consumer or retail sectors. Speculation has centered on targets like eBay, though no deal has materialized. Analysts note the move could diversify beyond declining physical game sales, but risks remain high — a misstep could erode the cash hoard built from meme-stock rallies and share offerings.

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GameStop ended fiscal 2025 with roughly $8.8 billion in cash and equivalents, bolstered by strategic capital raises in prior years. The balance sheet strength provides flexibility, but revenue trends weigh on sentiment. The company has accelerated store closures in 2026, with nearly 500 locations marked for shutdown across dozens of states as digital downloads and streaming erode demand for physical media. Circana projects modest U.S. video game spending growth of 3% to $62.8 billion in 2026, but traditional retail faces headwinds.

Despite challenges, Cohen’s vision draws comparisons to activist investors like Warren Buffett, though some critics argue the meme-stock label and volatility disconnect price from fundamentals. Michael Burry, the “Big Short” investor, disclosed a long-term position in January 2026, sparking a brief rally, but momentum faded.

Analyst coverage remains sparse and mixed. Consensus leans toward “hold” or “sell,” with average 12-month targets around $13.50 to $26, implying limited near-term upside from current levels. Some forecasts, like Long Forecast’s mechanical projection, see potential for $31 by year-end 2026 if trends hold, while others warn of downside to the low $20s amid execution risks.

The stock’s 52-week range spans $19.93 to $35.81, with the high hit in May 2025 during a brief resurgence. Year-to-date in 2026, shares are roughly flat to modestly positive after early volatility, trading well below 2021 peaks above $80 (pre-split adjusted). Market capitalization hovers near $10.67 billion, with about 448 million shares outstanding.

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GameStop’s next earnings report is expected around late March 2026 for the fiscal fourth quarter. Investors will watch for updates on acquisition talks, cash deployment, and progress toward Cohen’s ambitious targets. For now, the stock remains a high-risk, high-reward play driven by leadership vision rather than steady retail performance.

As Cohen pursues his consumer megadeal strategy, GameStop continues to straddle its meme-stock past and a potential new chapter as a diversified holding company. Whether the gamble pays off will depend on execution in an evolving gaming landscape.

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Big investors exiting for-sale housing market, even before Trump ban

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Big investors exiting for-sale housing market, even before Trump ban

In an aerial view, two-story single family homes line the streets on Jan. 14, 2026 in Thousand Oaks, California.

Kevin Carter | Getty Images

Legislation to ban institutional investors from buying single-family homes to rent is making its way through Congress, but many of them are already selling thousands of homes — and have been for two years.

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Research from housing data and analytics firm Parcl Labs shows that the largest investors are now net sellers of homes.

In every major metropolitan housing market, investors make up a larger share of for-sale listings than they do of the total housing stock. In some cities, like Dallas, Philadelphia and Houston, they are selling most aggressively. Dallas investors own 9.2% of the housing stock but account for 22.8% of new for-sale listings.

FirstKey Homes appears to be most motivated, with more than twice the listings of its peers, according to Parcl. It is also offering much deeper price cuts, an average 10% off original list prices, and is reducing prices about every 20 days.

“It’s a volatile housing market, and folks are trying to take risk off the table,” said Jason Lewris, co-founder of Parcl Labs. He noted that rents are not holding up relative to what investors can get if they sell.

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“So it’s better risk-adjusted returns to just get that cash and see how things pan out,” he said.

In its latest quarterly earnings release for the fourth quarter of 2025, Invitation Homes, one of the largest publicly traded landlords, reported that all 368 of its wholly owned acquisitions were newly constructed homes purchased from various homebuilders. It reported selling 315 existing homes.

For the full-year 2025, Invitation reported “almost all” of its 2,410 wholly owned acquisitions were bought through homebuilder relationships, while it sold 1,356 wholly owned homes, “frequently to families purchasing for their own use.”

In an effort to make housing affordable, in late January, President Donald Trump signed an executive order aimed at restricting large, institutional investors from buying single-family homes to use as rentals. He put an exemption on purchasing new construction specifically built as rentals.

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The White House later sent proposed legislation to Congress, saying investors owning more than 100 single-family homes would be banned from buying any more, but didn’t have to sell what they have. Senate and House bills have different volume thresholds for what constitutes large investors, but they are not far apart.

To put this in perspective, single-family rentals make up roughly 10% of U.S. housing stock, and the vast majority, 80%, are owned by so-called “mom-and-pop operators,” with fewer than 10 homes each, according to analysis from Bank of America. Smaller investors, those who own between 10 and 1,000 homes, make up 17% of landlords. Large institutional investors who own more than 1,000 homes make up just 3% of the single-family rental market.

The numbers, however, are coming down.

Investors initially flooded the market after the subprime mortgage crash that led to the Great Recession. Home prices in some markets dropped by half, and foreclosures soared. Investors bought the homes at bargain prices and turned them into lucrative rentals.

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As the markets recovered, there were fewer entry-level homes for sale to owner-occupants, because investors focused on that segment. In some cities, like Atlanta, regular buyers couldn’t compete with investors, who usually came carrying cash. Some neighborhoods are nearly fully investor-owned.

But by 2022, even before Trump took office for the second time, investors were already in retreat, buying fewer homes, according to Parcl. Selling accelerated in late 2024, with investors in Atlanta now selling nearly two properties for every one they buy.

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The next frontier

Investors are now pivoting to build-for-rent.

Much of the net selling shift over the past few years was a natural process of recycling capital, according to Rick Palacios, director of research at John Burns Research and Consulting.

“Home prices ran up post-2020, and many single-family rental investors sold assets into a rising home price backdrop, then redeployed capital into higher-yielding build-to-rent versus buying on resale at those very high prices and elevated borrowing costs for investors too,” Palacios said. 

 Builders also adjust their prices in real time, he noted, while resale sellers don’t.

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“This offered opportunities for investors to purchase at discounts from builders,” he added.

Invitation Homes has been buying homes from builders like Lennar but, in January, announced it had acquired Atlanta-based ResiBuilt Homes, a build-to-rent developer in high-growth markets across the Southeast. ResiBuilt was delivering about 1,000 homes per year, but Invitation Homes expects to expand that.

“One of the most constructive ways we can help is by adding more homes to the markets we serve,” said Dallas Tanner, CEO of Invitation Homes, on an earnings call last month with analysts. “While our home-builder partnerships have supported that effort for years, our acquisition of ResiBuilt expands it even further and improves our control over cost, product quality and delivery pace.”

AMH, formerly known as American Homes 4 Rent, meanwhile, has been building entire rental communities itself for several years. In its latest fourth-quarter earnings release, CEO Bryan Smith said, “Since the inception of our ground up development program, we have contributed over 14,000 newly built homes to the nation’s housing stock. Our results in 2025 and outlook for 2026 reflect continued focus on expanding the nation’s housing supply, elevating the resident experience, and creating value for all our stakeholders.”

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Song Ping, Veteran Chinese Communist Leader and Former Politburo Standing Committee Member, Dies at 108

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Song Ping

Song Ping, a veteran Chinese Communist revolutionary whose nine-decade career bridged the founding of the People’s Republic and its modern era, died Wednesday at age 108, state media reported.

Song Ping
Song Ping

Song passed away at 3:36 p.m. in Beijing due to illness despite medical treatment, Xinhua News Agency announced. Described in the official obituary as a “long-tested, loyal communist fighter,” he was one of the last living links to the party’s earliest generations, having joined in 1937 and served under leaders from Mao Zedong to Jiang Zemin.

Born Song Yanping on April 24, 1917, in Ju County, Shandong Province, Song grew up amid warlord rule and Japanese invasion. He participated in revolutionary activities from the 1930s, graduating from Tsinghua University’s chemistry department before fully committing to the Communist cause. During the Second United Front against Japan (1938-1947), he served as political secretary to Zhou Enlai, one of the “five secretaries” of the Central Committee, gaining early exposure to top leadership.

After 1949, Song held key provincial and central roles. He became First Party Secretary of Gansu Province from 1977 to 1981, where he championed economic reforms and talent development. Notably, he promoted Hu Jintao, then a young official in Gansu’s construction commission, launching the future general secretary’s ascent. Chinese media often dubbed Song “the greatest talent scout in Chinese politics” for nurturing Hu and others.

In the reform era under Deng Xiaoping, Song headed the State Planning Commission (1983-1987) and served as State Councilor. He chaired the Central Organization Department from 1983 to 1987, overseeing senior cadre appointments, promotions, and evaluations — a position of immense influence over the party’s personnel system.

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The 1989 Tiananmen Square crisis elevated Song to the Politburo Standing Committee on June 24, alongside Jiang Zemin and Li Ruihuan, as the party reshuffled leadership. At 72, he became a core figure in stabilizing the post-crisis order. He retired at the 14th Party Congress in October 1992, ending his formal role but retaining symbolic stature as the oldest living former PSC member.

Song’s longevity made him a living archive of CCP history. He witnessed five generations of leaders: Mao, Deng, Jiang, Hu, and Xi Jinping. Even in retirement, he attended major events, including the 19th National Congress in 2017 at age 100 and the 20th in 2022 at 105, arriving in a wheelchair but actively following proceedings. His presence underscored continuity and reverence for revolutionary elders.

Known for low-key demeanor and emphasis on party discipline, Song avoided public controversy in later years. He celebrated his 100th birthday in 2017 and remained one of the world’s oldest living politicians. His wife, Chen Shunyao, a fellow revolutionary, died in 2019. They had at least one son, Song Yichang.

Song’s death comes amid China’s ongoing emphasis on party history and revolutionary traditions under Xi. Official tributes highlighted his loyalty, contributions to cadre building, and role in economic planning during pivotal transitions.

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As the sole surviving member of the 13th PSC from 1989-1992, Song’s passing closes a chapter on the post-Tiananmen leadership that guided China through rapid modernization. His career exemplified the party’s evolution from revolutionary struggle to governance, leaving a legacy tied to talent cultivation and institutional stability.

Funeral arrangements were not immediately detailed, but state protocol typically includes high-level memorials for such figures. Song is survived by family and a vast network of protégés across generations of officials.

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'I fiddled the meter for a mate and the shop burnt down'

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'I fiddled the meter for a mate and the shop burnt down'

A BBC investigation speaks to electricians and families setting up illegal meter bypasses to steal power.

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Bath & Body Works earnings beat by $0.30, revenue topped estimates

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