The brief sigh of relief across global markets lasted barely a day. Brent crude climbed sharply back towards $100 a barrel on Thursday after Iran moved to close the Strait of Hormuz, sending a clear signal that the fragile Middle East ceasefire was already fracturing.

The benchmark was trading at $98.61 a barrel in early afternoon dealing, a rise of 4 per cent, having fallen as much as 16 per cent the previous day to below $91 on optimism that a two-week pause in hostilities might pave the way for a lasting peace. That optimism now looks badly misplaced.

Iran’s decision to shut the strait, through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil and gas passes, came in direct response to Israeli airstrikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, which Tehran condemned as a breach of the ceasefire agreement. It is a move that strikes at the heart of global energy security and one that will alarm policymakers and business leaders in equal measure.

Sultan Al Jaber, chief executive of Abu Dhabi’s state oil company Adnoc, did not mince his words. He made clear that Iran was using passage through the waterway as a tool of political leverage rather than respecting freedom of navigation, a distinction that matters enormously for businesses dependent on uninterrupted supply chains.

Nigel Green, chief executive of the financial advisory group deVere, echoed those concerns, pointing out that a fifth of the world’s oil supply continues to move through a corridor effectively controlled by one of the belligerents. For SMEs already grappling with elevated energy costs, it is a deeply uncomfortable position.

Stock markets reflected the souring mood. The FTSE 100, which had enjoyed its strongest single session since April 2025 with a 2.5 per cent gain on Wednesday, gave back 0.2 per cent to trade at 10,585. On the continent, Germany’s DAX shed 1.4 per cent and France’s CAC 40 fell 0.7 per cent. Across Asia, Japan’s Nikkei, South Korea’s Kospi and China’s SSE Composite all closed lower.

Wall Street, which had rallied sharply overnight with the S&P 500 up 2.5 per cent and the Dow Jones gaining nearly 3 per cent, was expected to open in the red.

President Trump weighed in on social media, confirming that American forces would remain deployed in the Gulf until an agreement was both reached and honoured, warning of severe consequences should it not be.

Meanwhile, Israel intensified its military campaign in Lebanon with its heaviest strikes since the conflict with the Iran-backed Hezbollah militia escalated last month, with more than 250 reported killed.

For British businesses, particularly those in manufacturing, logistics and any sector exposed to energy pricing, the message is stark. The ceasefire may have offered a momentary respite, but the underlying volatility in the Middle East, and its direct bearing on the cost of doing business, is far from resolved. With Brent hovering just shy of triple figures, boardrooms across the country will be revisiting their hedging strategies and bracing for what could be a prolonged period of uncertainty.

Jamie Young

Jamie is Senior Reporter at Business Matters, bringing over a decade of experience in UK SME business reporting.
Jamie holds a degree in Business Administration and regularly participates in industry conferences and workshops.

When not reporting on the latest business developments, Jamie is passionate about mentoring up-and-coming journalists and entrepreneurs to inspire the next generation of business leaders.

This story about the fourth-quarter GDP report is developing and will be updated with more details.

The U.S. economy grew at a slightly slower pace than expected in the fourth quarter, according to the Commerce Department’s estimate.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) on Thursday released its final reading of fourth-quarter GDP, which showed the economy grew at an annualized rate of 0.5% in the three-month period including October, November and December. 

Shipping containers are organized at the Houston Port of Authority on Feb. 10, 2025 in Houston, Texas. (Brandon Bell/Getty Images)

FED’S FAVORED INFLATION GAUGE REMAINED ELEVATED IN FEBRUARY, DELAYED REPORT SHOWS

That figure was lower than the expectations of economists polled by LSEG, who had estimated 0.7% GDP growth in the fourth quarter.

Americans are facing a tale of two grocery lists.

While some prices are cooling, the items families rely on most for energy and nutrition — meat and coffee — are seeing sharp increases that wipe out any savings in the bread aisle.

Fourteen of the 25 most common grocery store staples rose in price from February 2024 to February 2026, with the top five largest increases coming from coffee (+55%), lettuce (+39%), ground beef (+31%), sirloin steak (+21%) and orange juice (+15%), according to a new report from CouponFollow that analyzed Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from the past two years.

Coffee was the fastest-rising staple in the study, with a pound of ground roast costing $6.09 in 2024 compared to $9.46 in 2026. Going back to 2020, coffee prices have reportedly increased 123%.

JAMIE DIMON WARNS IRAN WAR COULD DRIVE INFLATION, INTEREST RATES HIGHER

Ground beef has hit $6.74 per pound, a 31% increase from 2024 and 74% above pre-pandemic levels.

Customers shop for beef at a grocery store on April 6, 2026, in Los Angeles, California. (Getty Images)

With ground beef prices in mind, CouponFollow ran a “taco night test,” tracking specific meal scenarios to show how inflation affects consumers. A family of four is paying nearly $25 just for basic taco ingredients, compared to just $17.50 six years ago.

If you can live on eggs and toast, your bill might be lower than it was two years ago, with egg prices decreasing the most (-17%), followed by white bread (-8%), spaghetti (-8%) and butter (-7%).

Still, the report warns that “the items still climbing are rising fast enough to offset those declines.”

“Grocery inflation isn’t going away overnight, but small changes to how and where you shop can add up fast. Paying attention to which categories are rising and which are cooling, stocking up on pantry staples when prices dip, and being flexible with pricier proteins are all easy ways to stretch your grocery budget a little further,” CouponFollow notes. “Stacking those habits with coupons and deals can make an even bigger dent in your weekly bill.”

Economic experts have also recently cautioned that high oil prices due to the Iran war are pushing gasoline prices higher, and that could lead to grocery bills rising for American consumers.

The increase in oil, gas and diesel prices raises transportation costs for businesses, including grocery stores, which may face pressure to raise food prices and other items if the situation continues.

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“Every time something moves in the economy, it will cost more,” said Derek Reisfield, co-founder of MarketWatch and a former McKinsey consultant. “Someone, usually the end consumer, will have to pay for that.”

Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon, previously told FOX Business: “For U.S. consumers, what this means is that while there is currently a price shock at the pump being felt directly by consumers, there’s still uncertainty as to how long this shock will last.”

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FOX Business’ Eric Revell contributed to this report.

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