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ARP Opinions – Trump Chickens Out Again (S&P Complete Indices:SP500)

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ARP Opinions - Trump Chickens Out Again (S&P Complete Indices:SP500)

Oil price line graph overlay with the map of Middle East as background

matejmo/iStock via Getty Images

Iran remains defiant and U.S. midterm elections are less than eight months away.

Those two statements probably sum up the state of affairs better than anything else. Why? Because Iran has a new leader who is determined to follow in his father’s footsteps, and because relatively cheap Iranian military technology (mostly drones) has proven effective against the Americans’ trillion dollar military extravaganza. In fact, so effective that the Americans are trying to tell a puzzled world that the military campaign is now largely complete, that there is no Iranian navy or air force left, and that the Americans can therefore pull out quite soon.

That last point brings me to the second opening statement. A recent Reuters (TRI) poll showed that only one in four Americans support the war in Iran. With the House of Representatives looking likely to go the Democrats, the Republicans can hardly afford so much resistance. Although Trump immediately labelled the Reuters poll “fake news”, it is obvious that he is rattled. In the press conference yesterday, he desperately looked for reasons to chicken out (again).

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What did he really mean when he indicated that the Americans may pull out “quite soon”? In days? In weeks? Any longer? And where does that leave the Israelis? Nobody knows. When trading started yesterday, Brent oil was over $100/barrel – up from about $65/barrel only ten days ago (Exhibit 1).

Exhibit 1: Oil prices since January 2023

When trading started yesterday, Brent oil was over $100/barrel – up from about $65/barrel only ten days ago

Trump then went live with various suggestions. Pulling out of Iran ”quite soon” was on the agenda, but it was far from the only suggestion. He talked about releasing strategic oil reserves, and he even mentioned the possibility of easing oil sanctions against Russia. The impact was imminent. The S&P 500, which was in red most of the day ended the day +0.83%. Meanwhile, oil prices collapsed and are down to about $90/barrel this morning in Europe (Exhibit 2). Trump always chickens out!

Exhibit 2: Oil prices between 09/03/2026 and 10/03/2026

oil prices collapsed and are down to about $90/barrel this morning in Europe

Now to the most important question: What’s next?

We believe Trump is rattled because he is no longer in full control of the Republican party. The Democrats are not the only ones trying to unsettle him. From within his own party, the angry voices are getting louder, and the objective is obvious. Should the House go to the Democrats, the next two years will become a great deal more complicated on Capitol Hill. The aim is therefore to put a lid on the can of worms Trump opened by attacking Iran and, so far, Trump appears willing to follow that line.

Precisely how the Israelis will handle a US pullout remains a big question. For years, they wanted to destroy Iran, and we are pretty sure (but don’t know for certain) that, if it was up to them, what you have seen so far was only the beginning. Will they continue without the Americans, though? We doubt it and therefore think energy prices will continue to normalise – whatever that means these days!

By Niels Clemen Jensen


References

  1. Note: The overnight spike between 09/03/2026 and 10/03/2026 not included
  2. Source: Bloomberg

© Absolute Return Partners LLP 2026. Registered in England No. OC303480. Authorised and Regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered Office: 3 rd Floor, 45 Albemarle Street, Mayfair, London W1S 4JL, UK

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This material has been prepared by Absolute Return Partners LLP (ARP). ARP is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the United Kingdom. It is provided for information purposes, is intended for your use only and does not constitute an invitation or offer to subscribe for or purchase any of the products or services mentioned. The information provided is not intended to provide a sufficient basis on which to make an investment decision. Information and opinions presented in this material have been obtained or derived from sources believed by ARP to be reliable, but ARP makes no representation as to their accuracy or completeness. ARP accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this material. The results referred to in this document are not a guide to the future performance of ARP. The value of investments can go down as well as up and the implementation of the approach described does not guarantee positive performance. Any reference to potential asset allocation and potential returns do not represent and should not be interpreted as projections.

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Absolute Return Partners LLP is a London based thematic investment manager committed to megatrend investing. We aim to benefit from long term thematic trends including Climate Change, the Era of Disruption, Last Stages of the Debt Supercycle among others. You can find more information about the megatrend we invest in accordance with on our website.

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Editor’s Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.

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ORR: A Hedge Fund In ETF Clothing, Convincing Buy Opportunity (NASDAQ:ORR)

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ORR: A Hedge Fund In ETF Clothing, Convincing Buy Opportunity (NASDAQ:ORR)

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I focus on a rigorous fundamentals-foremost equity and credit research. I currently work as a financial advisor/planner, and do analysis in my free time. I have an undergrad in business administration, an MBA in finance, and currently am a doctoral candidate (a DBA with a concentration in Finance and Investment Management). My research style typically involves process-driven research, followed by blending several valuation models together to get a blended, 12 month price target. I enjoy utilizing full DCF analysis in conjunction with SOTP, peer/multiples analysis, and risk-adjusted approaches. I thoroughly enjoy reading filings, technical documentation relevant to the sector, and then translating that data into conclusions with actionable insights. I enjoy learning about the various sectors and companies I find myself researching, and always feel like there is something to learn. As a curious individual, equity and credit research is very fulfilling, and even fun!I always try to find 2-4 variables that drive value or hinder growth, stress test them, and then let fundamental evidence incorporated with book-value set my viewpoint for the research project. I enjoy the energy sector, commodities, tech, and financial sectors the most. I joined Seeking Alpha to share my thoughts with a wide audience. I originally started with sharing my analysis with a few of my friends who are also advisors and/or analysts. I am always open to a myriad of viewpoints, as I feel the most accurate viewpoints and research is made through a collection of great minds working together to figure something out. If you appreciate thorough research, and want to learn more about a company beyond just what is inside of their books, then I believe you will enjoy the research that I work on.

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I spent 30 years in the institutional trenches as a trader, analyst, and portfolio manager, eventually running the equity trading desk at Northern Trust in Chicago. Those decades shaped my approach: stay disciplined, trust the data, and keep emotion out of the way. Since 2009, when I began publishing my stock selections, my portfolio has delivered solid long term results—compounding in the mid teens annually through 2025. Today I’m a private investor and investing coach, with a rules based framework that helps people build better portfolios. My work focuses on systematic thinking, behavioral awareness, and evidence over opinion. For my market outlook and model portfolio updates, visit zeninvestor.org. .

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