As the fuel crisis continues along with the Iran war, Energy Minister Chris Bowen has assured that fuel shipments have been secured “well into May.”

However, an economist has raised the alarm regarding the fuel situation, calling for Australia to be more self-sufficient when it comes to fuel.

Fuel Shipments Secured ‘Well Into May’

According to a report by ABC News, Bowen has assured the public that the government has been hard at work to ensure that enough supplies for May will be secured.

“All the orders are locked in and contracted,” said Bowen. “Once it’s contracted, the fuel belongs to the Australian company that’s bought it … that is legally locked in, so that’s encouraging.”

He added, “Of course, there is a risk in international circumstance and [the] international situation, but every step that can be taken is being taken.”

Bowen previously disclosed that 53 ships carrying fuel are now on the way to Australia from different countries in Asia, as well as the United States and Mexico.

‘Wake Up Call for Australia’

Despite the promising developments, an economist is urging Australia to do more amid the ongoing crisis.

According to Sky News, MST Financial energy analyst Saul Kavonic went as far to say that Australia “ceded our fuel security to foreign powers.”

“This is a wake up call for Australia to become more self-sufficient in fuel again. The next disruption to maritime trade could occur closer to home in the Pacific, leaving Australia without any fuel, and our economy would grind to a halt within weeks,” said Kavonic.

“Australia must act to avert the economic and national security risks posed by our fuel import dependence,” he added.

Addressing the calls to turn to renewable sources of energy, Kavonic pointed out that “renewables are simply not practical to replace jet fuel and diesel at this time.”

Shares of the lender jumped to Rs 312.70 apiece in the morning trading hours of Monday, the highest level in more than a month. The sharp surge added more than Rs 720 crore to the total market capitalisation of the company, pulling it higher up to rise above Rs 19,310 crore.

In an exchange filing released on Thursday, RBL Bank said that the RBI has approved Emirates NBD Bank to acquire up to 74% stake in the lender. After the completion of the stake sale, the Dubai-based bank will become a promoter holder, crossing the 51% threshold as per the RBI’s conditions. The lender has no promoter, currently. The private lender, meanwhile, will be classified as a foreign bank operating in wholly owned subsidiary (WOS) mode, with Emirates NBD as its parent. RBI’s approval is now valid for one year.

The approval was communicated via a letter dated April 1, 2026, ET had earlier reported, citing sources. The report said that an approval from the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) is also expected soon.

RBL Bank Q4 business update

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RBL Bank on Thursday released its provisional business update for the fourth quarter of the financial year 2026. The lender’s total deposits rose 25% year-on-year (YoY) to Rs 1.39 lakh crore in Q4 FY26, from 1.11 lakh crore in the corresponding quarter of the previous financial year. Sequentially, total deposits grew 16% QoQ from Rs 1.2 lakh crore in Q3 FY26.
Gross advances meanwhile increased 22% YoY and 11% QoQ to Rs 1.15 lakh crore during the quarter under review. RBL Bank’s CASA (current account and savings account) deposits grew 23% YoY to Rs 46,723 crore, while CASA ratio stood at 33.6% in Q4 FY26, slightly lower than 34.1% in the same period of the previous year.
Also read: Earnings downgrade alert: How $110 crude and Iran war are threatening India Inc’s double-digit dream

RBL Bank’s deposits worth under Rs 3 crore grew 16% YoY to Rs 63,943 crore, while the average liquidity coverage ratio stood at 130%, lower than 133% recorded in Q4 FY25. The bank said that its total business crossed Rs 2.5 lakh crore at the end of the quarter, marking a 24% YoY increase from Q4 FY25.

Secured retail advances grew 36% YoY and 17% QoQ. Retail advances rose 18% YoY and 10% QoQ, while unsecured retail advances grew 2% QoQ. Wholesale advances grew 27% YoY. Within wholesale, commercial banking advances grew 29% YoY. The mix of retail: wholesale advances was reported at approximately 59:41.

Motilal Oswal Financial Services said that RBL Bank’s exceptional growth of 22% YoY in gross advances is fairly higher than its estimate of 16%. It noted that deposits also witnessed exceptional growth of 25% YoY, significantly higher than its estimate of 12.2%.

“RBL reported remarkable business growth, led by both advances as well as deposits growth,” it said, maintaining its ‘Buy’ call on the stock.

Also read: Trump tariffs hit patented drugs: Jefferies, Nomura explain impact on pharma stocks

RBL Bank shares have gained more than 8% in the past week, and over 3% in the past month. In the longer term, the stock has surged 78% in one year, and more than 118% in three years.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

This article was written by

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Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

The Thai Meteorological Department has warned of hot to extremely hot conditions across Thailand from April 4–9, 2026, with temperatures reaching up to 42°C, accompanied by hazy skies and isolated thunderstorms.

Key Points

• Temperatures in upper Thailand (North, Northeast, Central, Bangkok) are expected to reach 36–42°C during the day, driven by a heat-induced low-pressure system.
• Hazy conditions are forecast across most regions during the day, with residents in the North, Northeast, and upper Central regions advised to wear N95 masks outdoors.
• Thunderstorms and gusty winds are expected in scattered areas despite the extreme heat, with some rainfall (10–20% coverage) forecast from April 7–9.
• Bangkok temperatures will range from 26–28°C at night to 35–41°C during the day, with southerly winds at 10–15 km/h.
• Southern Thailand will see isolated thunderstorms with wave heights around one metre, rising higher during storms.
• Mariners have been advised to avoid sailing in storm-affected areas of the Gulf of Thailand and Andaman Sea.
• Residents are urged to avoid prolonged outdoor activities due to health risks from the extreme heat.

Why It Matters

The Thai Meteorological Department has issued a heat warning from today until April 9. Many areas in Thailand could see temperatures exceed 42°C, along with hazy skies during the day.

Upper Thailand will be affected by a heat-induced low-pressure system, resulting in widespread high temperatures and reduced visibility. Weak southerly and westerly winds are also contributing to unstable weather, leading to potential thunderstorms and gusty winds in certain areas.

The combination of record-level heat, poor air quality from haze, and unpredictable storms poses significant health and safety risks across Thailand as the country moves deeper into its hot season.

Prolonged exposure to extreme heat can lead to heat-related illnesses, while deteriorating air quality contributes to respiratory issues, particularly among vulnerable populations such as children, the elderly, and those with pre-existing conditions. Additionally, the unpredictability of storms raises concerns about sudden flooding, property damage, and disruptions to daily life, highlighting the urgent need for comprehensive disaster preparedness and sustainable environmental policies to mitigate these growing risks.

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Brent crude prices hovering near $110 per ‌barrel ⁠could strain India’s ⁠import bill, given its position as the world’s third-largest crude importer, and put pressure on corporate margins.

Here are some details:

* In its base case, BofA assumes crude prices at $92.5 per barrel and has lowered India’s FY27 GDP growth estimate to 6.5% from 7.4% ⁠earlier * In ‌a worst-case scenario involving a prolonged Middle East conflict, GDP growth can slide to ⁠3%, while earnings growth may drop to zero in fiscal year 2027

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* The Nifty 50 index is currently trading close to long-term average valuations. A potential resolution to the Iran conflict could trigger a 15% upside
** BofA, however, expects the index to continue underperforming its emerging market ‌peers due to relatively expensive valuations
** The brokerage has set Nifty target for December-end at 26,200, compared with its current ⁠level of 22,663
** The brokerage projected opportunities within large-caps and select themes in broader market after correction

** Downgrades rate-sensitive sectors like mid-sized private banks, non-bank lenders, real estate, and automobile companies to “underweight” from “overweight” earlier

** BofA prefers energy- and rate-hike beneficiaries such as large private sector banks and state-owned lenders

This article was written by

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Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

I believe that more money can be made by buying high and selling at even higher prices. I take exception to the idea of buying low and selling high – Richard Driehaus, the father of momentum investing

Preface

Allow me to start by stating unequivocally that I am not a dedicated momentum investor. Nor am I a dedicated value investor. In fact, if you want to put a label on me, I am probably best described as a thematic investor. I believe in certain themes (aka megatrends) taking control of the world we live in and, if you can identify and invest correctly in those themes, it actually makes little difference whether the companies you end up investing in can best be described as one or the other.

In last month’s Absolute Return Letter – How (Not) to Value Equities – which you can find here , I made the point that momentum investors shouldn’t be overly concerned about the point I made, i.e. that the returns on U.S. equities over the next decade are likely to fall dramatically short of the returns we have gotten used to in recent years.

I have had a few comments and questions on the back of that argument. It is therefore only natural that I elaborate on the point I made. What do I really mean when I say that momentum investors shouldn’t pay too much attention to how expensive markets are? And which signals do I use to detect when, suddenly, it isn’t irrelevant anymore? In this month’s Absolute Return Letter, I will dig deeper on those two questions.

A bit of history

I am old enough to remember the boom and bust in Japan in the late 1980s and early 1990s and, likewise, the dotcom boom and bust in the U.S. some ten years later. I think of those two incidents virtually every day, as I remind myself of not falling into the same trap again.

Momentum investors had a feast in Japan in the late 1980s, and they enjoyed it no less in USA a decade later. I was the new kid on the block in Copenhagen when Nationalbanken (the Central Bank of Denmark), in January 1984, relaxed the rules to do with investing abroad. For the first time ever, ordinary Danes were allowed to invest in non-Danish equities.

Coincidentally, the ‘party’ in Japan started at about the same time. Day after day, and with few questions asked, clients filled their pockets with Japan equities. A new generation of momentum investors had been born. About ten years later, the story repeated itself although, this time, it was all about a new phenomenon we hardly understood. Those who did, called it the internet . Again, momentum investors made fortunes on companies we had never heard of before.

Everything was fine until, suddenly, it wasn’t. In Japan, the party ended abruptly in 1990 due to a combination of government policy tightening and structural weaknesses in Japan’s financial system which had been exposed. Ten years later, in USA, the story broadly repeated itself. A worried Fed had increased the policy rate no less than six times between the summer of 1999 and the spring of 2000, and, suddenly, financial markets snapped.

However, the point I want to make is a different one. At least two years before the party ended, both in Japan and in USA, you could have made exactly the same argument. Take for example the dotcom boom. Had you invested exclusively in the Nasdaq index to participate in the boom (as a dedicated momentum investor would have done) but sold it all at the end of 1997, as somebody had told you valuations were now ridiculous (as they were), you would have missed +40% in 1998 and +86% in 1999. In other words, exiting prematurely is associated with significant career risk.

Exhibit 1a: S&P 500 momentum relative to S&P 500 since 1972

Exhibit 1b: MSCI World momentum relative to MSCI World since 1972

Take a quick look at the charts above. As you can see, in the US (Exhibit 1a), momentum investing has enjoyed a fabulous 54 years since 1972. Only in the first few years after the dotcom bust in 2000 did momentum investors significantly underperform; however, over the entire period, momentum investors have performed dramatically better than index investors – by a factor 5x.

The picture is modestly different in Exhibit 1b (global equities). In the first three decades, momentum actually underperformed; however, since the early 2000s, momentum investors have outperformed index investors when investing globally and, over the entire period, they have outperformed by a factor 3x.

The father of momentum investing in a few words

Richard Driehaus, who unexpectedly died in 2021, is widely recognised as the father of momentum investing. He identified and bought stocks when they have strong upward price momentum and held on to them, as long as the momentum continued. He focused on small- and mid-cap companies with accelerating earnings growth and emphasised companies that are capable of delivering significant, positive earnings surprises.

Key to his success was his ability to hold on to his winners whilst quickly getting rid of his losers – something we could all learn from. Another key was his willingness to diversify during bad times and to concentrate his holdings during good times. He had four key metrics he followed religiously:

1. positive earnings surprises;
2. sharp upwards revisions in consensus earnings estimates;
3. accelerating earnings & sales; and
4. very strong, consistent and sustained earnings growth.

Even better if the earnings growth was not only year-on-year but also sequential; however, of the four metrics, Driehaus probably assigned most value to #1. If you want to learn more about the methodology conducted by Richard Driehaus, I suggest you read this 2021 article in Forbes Magazine .

What have I learned so far and what can I learn?

In terms of how to deal with seemingly overvalued equity markets, by far the most important lesson I have learnt from a long career in the industry is that booms don’t turn to busts just because equities are overvalued. A catalyst shall be required. As I pointed out earlier, in the two incidents mentioned in this month’s letter, aggressive monetary tightening did the trick.

That said, the U.S. monetary policy regime has changed since the late 1990s; the focus is no longer on inflation only. Adding to that, U.S. households own colossal amounts of equities. It would take a man with nerves of steel to end this party. Furthermore, the current tenant of the White House is (i) addicted to debt and (ii) prepared to fire FOMC members who don’t dance to his tune. All of this means that the current (seemingly illogical) behaviour can continue for much longer than most of us expect, and that the catalyst, when it eventually arrives, will most likely be something we hadn’t thought of.

This doesn’t imply you shouldn’t take your precautions. In last month’s Absolute Return Letter, I listed five particular lines of action we have taken to take risk out of our portfolio. We:

1. 1. significantly reduced our exposure to U.S. equities, the most expensive on Earth;
2. 2. didn’t go into cash but instead increased our exposure to Europe, Canada, Japan and China;
3. 3. significantly lowered the equity beta in our portfolio;
4. 4. increased the exposure to certain commodities (mostly industrial metals); and we
5. 5. bought gold.

Looking forward, what is the most important danger signal that I look out for? There are obviously many – financial magazines putting a big story on the front page is always a good contrarian indicator – but one stands out to me. Going back to momentum investing and Richard Driehaus, when investors start to react negatively

unless the positive earnings surprise is substantial, all the red lamps start flashing in my office. Unfortunately, I have seen a few of those in recent weeks. Now, one swallow doesn’t make a summer, but it is an indicator I follow keenly, and I will strongly suggest you do the same.

Niels

Original Post

Editor’s Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.

The company said the changes ‘reflect the strength and depth’ of the senior team

Defence giant Babcock has announced a series of changes to its leadership team ahead of the departure of its current chief executive. The company has confirmed that Harry Holt is now working as deputy CEO as he prepares to succeed boss David Lockwood who is retiring at the end of 2026.

Former Army officer Mr Holt has been part of the senior management team at Babcock since November 2023. Before joining the business he spent seven years on the board of Rolls Royce in a number of senior roles, including as president of its nuclear division and latterly as chief people officer, leading a group-wide transformation and restructuring.

“I am deeply honoured to have the opportunity to lead Babcock through its next chapter,” Mr Holt said previously. “I would like to pay tribute to David’s inspirational leadership that has put Babcock on an excellent footing from which we can continue to grow and am looking forward to working with him through the transition period.”

Mr Lockwood added: “It has been my privilege to lead Babcock, through a period that has seen the COVID pandemic, international geopolitical unrest and an increased focus on global security. Babcock is a unique company, it has a team of great people, with a range of important skills, alongside some of the most critical specialist infrastructure needed today.”

Separately, Neal Misell, who previously headed up the company’s mission systems business, is now chief executive of Babcock’s nuclear division. Mr Misell has led multiple parts of the Babcock Group, in the UK and internationally.

Louise Atkinson, who was most recently chief people officer, has taken up the role of chief executive of mission systems. She has spent more than 13 years in senior leadership roles in Babcock’s procurement and supply chain, training and defence equipment in the group’s land business.

With Ms Atkinson moving into her new role, people director Jen McElhinney has become interim chief people officer.

“These changes to our executive committee reflect the strength and depth of our senior team and our focus on continuing to build a sustainable, successful future,” Babcock said in a statement.

The news comes just days after Babcock announced it would be opening a huge new base in Plymouth city centre which will house some 2,000 staff. The ‘Capability Centre’ will be in addition to the city’s Dockyard.

The engineering business said last week the move would “significantly increase” footfall in the city centre, support local businesses and services, and boost Plymouth’s economy