Bajaj Auto shares rise 3% after firm posts record Q4 profit. Here’s what Jefferies, Nomura and other brokerages are saying

The shares of Bajaj Auto jumped over 3% on Thursday after the company reported its highest-ever quarterly profit of Rs 2,746 crore for the fourth quarter of FY26, marking a 34% surge from the Rs 2,049 crore profit reported in the same period last year, leading to bullish brokerage calls.

The two-wheeler maker released its results for January-March quarter of the financial year 2026 post market hours on Wednesday. While standalone net profit surged 34%, revenue from operations rose 32% year-on-year (YoY) to Rs 16,006 crore in the quarter under review, compared with Rs 12,145 crore in the corresponding quarter of the previous financial year. EBITDA climbed 36% YoY to Rs 3,323 crore, while EBITDA margin expanded 60 basis points to 20.8%.

Shares of the company gained over 3% to trade at Rs 10,656 apiece on the NSE on Thursday.

Bajaj Auto share buyback

Along with the Q4 earnings, Bajaj Auto also announced a share buyback worth Rs 5,633 crore. The company will buy back up to 46.94 lakh fully paid-up equity shares, representing 1.68% of its total equity, at Rs 12,000 per share through the tender route. The buyback price implies a premium of over 16% to the previous NSE closing price of Rs 10,319 per share.Bajaj Auto also announced a dividend of Rs 150 per share (1,500%) on equity shares with a face value of Rs 10 each for the financial year ended March 31, 2026. The record date for determining shareholder eligibility has been fixed as May 29, while the dividend will be paid on or around July 24, 2026.

Nomura on Bajaj Auto

Nomura maintained its ‘Neutral’ rating while raising its target price to Rs 10,928 from Rs 10,446. The revised target implies an upside potential of nearly 6% from the stock’s previous closing price.

The global brokerage said the company’s earnings were largely ahead of estimates. It raised its export volume forecasts by 4% for FY27 and FY28, citing strong momentum, and added that domestic growth is likely to be driven by Chetak and new bike launches in the current financial year.
Nomura now expects Bajaj Auto to report overall volume growth of 13% in FY27 and 8% in FY28, marking an upward revision of 2-3%. It added that the success of new bike launches in FY27 could provide further upside, although the end of the PLI scheme in FY28 may weigh on EBITDA margins, estimated at around 200 bps in Q4 FY26.“We estimate EBITDA margins at 20.9% in FY27 and 21.3% in FY28 (vs 21.4%/21.8% earlier). We believe commodity pressures should be well managed over time through pricing, operating leverage and a weak rupee. In Q1 FY27, margin pressures of ~100-150 bps QoQ may emerge,” Nomura said.

Jefferies on Bajaj Auto

Jefferies maintained its ‘Hold’ rating on Bajaj Auto, but increased its target price to Rs 10,500 apiece, a potential upside of nearly 2% from the previous closing price.

The brokerage said that the company reported strong growth in Q4, beating estimates. It added that India’s two-wheeler demand is holding up well, and it now expects 8% industry volume CAGR over FY26-29. However, rising commodity prices post some headwind to near-term margins.

Morgan Stanley on Bajaj Auto

Morgan Stanley maintained its ‘Underweight’ rating on Bajaj Auto, but raised its target price to Rs 9,259 per share. The revised target implies a downside potential of over 10% from the stock’s previous closing price.

The international brokerage said the company delivered an impressive set of results, with EBITDA beating estimates by 4-7%. It added that currency tailwinds and calibrated price hikes are helping offset commodity cost pressures. However, it cautioned that domestic demand, particularly in the entry-level segment, could moderate in the near term.

JM Financial on Bajaj Auto

JM Financial retained its ‘Reduce’ rating and marginally raised its target price by 1% to Rs 9,600, implying a downside of around 7%. The brokerage said domestic market share gains remain limited, with traction beyond the Pulsar range still muted.

“Hence, we do not expect meaningful market share gains despite further launches. We build in 6.1% domestic 2W volume growth for FY27E. Exports, however, remain strong, and we expect 16.7% export volume growth in FY27E, led by recovery/stability across regions,” JM Financial said.