Once again Wall Street was surprised by a deflationary wholesale price report where the level of the so-called producer price index actually dropped by three-tenths of a percent. And it’s worth noting that after rising 1.1 percent in April, the PPI eased to 0.6 percent in May. And then the outright decline of three-tenths in June.

This follows yesterday’s deflationary CPI report. Both are a welcome relief from the inflationary reports of recent months. Real average hourly earnings rose 0.8 percent in June. That’s the best monthly real wage gain in 11 years, excluding the pandemic. Wall Street is also wrong about its prediction that the Fed will be raising rates, as these deflationary reports have taken rate hikes off the board, undoubtedly for the rest of the year I think. 

Actually, my view is the Fed’s not going to change their target rates until Chairman Kevin Warsh’s various task forces report. There are five panels with some very smart people on them. They’re gonna look at the appropriate inflation measures, the Fed’s balance sheet, communication and forward guidance, economic data quality, and productivity.

This is part of Mr. Warsh’s regime change. And it’s a very good idea. Yet my hunch is not to expect any big policy changes until those task forces publish their work, and the central bank figures out how to absorb the reports and then change them.

Meanwhile, even as President Trump steps up the bombing of Iran in response to the IRGC busting the ceasefire and the memorandum of understanding, inflationary expectations in our financial markets are actually coming down.

Indeed even the WTI oil price seems to have stopped rising. I think word money markets want to see regime change in Iran even more than regime change at the Fed. For the record, the two-year CPI break-evens have dropped all the way to 1.89 percent, that’s below the Fed’s 2 percent target, the dollar is strong, and precious metals are soft.

Meanwhile profits, productivity, and stock prices are all soaring. After the pro-growth incentives of the One, Big, Beautiful Bill of a year ago. So at least for now, we’ve got falling prices and a rising economy. Has Goldilocks returned?

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Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced Wednesday that the U.S. Mint will begin striking a new $1 gold coin featuring President Donald Trump to mark America’s 250th anniversary.

Bessent said in an X post that the coin will honor “the enduring legacy of liberty” and serve as a “lasting symbol of patriotism.”

“Featuring President Trump, it celebrates the strength of American values, and the promise of a nation dedicated to preserving freedom for all,” Bessent wrote.

Bessent also shared an image of the coin, which shows Trump’s portrait on one side. The word “LIBERTY” appears along the top edge, with “1776 ~ 2026” along the bottom and “IN GOD WE TRUST” on the right side.

The reverse side features a presidential-style eagle shield design with “250” in the center. The outer edge reads “UNITED STATES OF AMERICA” and “ONE DOLLAR.”

US TREASURY PLANNING TO MINT $1 COINS WITH TRUMP’S IMAGE

Federal law generally bars living people from appearing on U.S. currency. The Trump administration has said the coin is allowed under a 2020 law authorizing special coin designs for America’s 250th anniversary, according to Forbes.

The announcement quickly drew reaction on social media, with some critics calling it a “vanity project” and supporters praising it as a patriotic tribute.

“The irony is incredible – while Americans are pinching pennies to afford the skyrocketing costs of groceries, housing, and healthcare, the Trump administration is producing coins featuring Trump’s face,” Rep. Jerry Nadler, D-N.Y., wrote on X. “Donald Trump and Republican lawmakers have plunged our country into a devastating affordability crisis, and now they’re indulging Trump in another golden vanity project.”

TRUMP CELEBRATES $250B MICRON INVESTMENT, SAYS AMERICA IS ‘GETTING SHOVELS IN THE GROUND’

Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky., also criticized the move.

“Congratulations, we’ve entered the end stages. Eliminate the penny, plug the nickel, and make some commemorative gold coins nobody can afford,” Massie wrote. “I feel sorry for the folks who will be sold worthless knockoffs of this by the usual grifters.”

Meanwhile, others praised the coin as a fitting tribute to the country’s semiquincentennial.

“Whether you’re a numismatist, history buff, or just love a strong symbol of American resilience, these coins are sure to be in high demand. They’re a fitting tribute to the nation’s enduring spirit of liberty and determination on this milestone birthday,” one user wrote on X.

TRUMP SCRAPS PROPOSED STRAIT OF HORMUZ SHIPPING FEE FOR GULF STATES’ INVESTMENT DEALS

FOX Business first learned last year that the Treasury Department was considering a plan to mint new $1 coins bearing Trump’s image as part of a push to commemorate the 250th anniversary of America’s founding.

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“Despite the radical left’s forced shutdown of our government, the facts are clear: Under the historic leadership of President Donald J. Trump, our nation is entering its 250th anniversary stronger, more prosperous, and better than ever,” a Treasury spokesperson told FOX Business at the time.

Global stock markets saw a sharp downturn earlier this year, but Dalal Street has begun to show strong resilience recently. In this backdrop, PL Capital increased its Nifty 50 target to 27,019, while cautioning that the prolonged West Asia crisis and impact of the mega El Nino year can play a “spoil sport”.

The Nifty target set by the domestic brokerage implies an upside potential of more than 12% from the benchmark index’s closing level of 24,078 on Wednesday. However, it cautioned that Dalal Street is now passing through a phase filled with uncertainty, and markets are likely to remain highly volatile. With resumption of hostilities in West Asia and rising probability of EL Nino, PL Capital remains cautiously optimistic with a stock specific approach.

The benchmark index has rallied over 7% in the past two months and nearly 8% from its 52-week low mainly due to the sharp decline in crude oil prices to $70 per barrel and an interim ceasefire in the West Asia war, the domestic brokerage noted, adding that the Indian economy has been one of the most resilient ones and Q1 FY27 has shown a steady demand trend.

PL Capital said the FCNR bonds issue is likely to provide a flip to credit availability by 3% in the system and boost growth. However, despite a cooling off in crude prices, it expects inflation to rise steadily due to the negative base of food inflation from June onwards. “Markets have been firm on recent pick up in monsoons, however, with a 10-15% deficit in H1 monsoons, super El Nino can increase inflation and impact rural demand in H2 2027,” it added.

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Nifty 50 is trading at nearly a 12% discount to its 15- year average PE although the multiples have increased in the recent rally, PL Capital noted, adding that it values the benchmark index at a 10% discount to the 15-year average PE of 17. 6x with FY28 EPS of Rs 1,532.
Which sectors have a positive outlookIn this backdrop, PL Capital believes that sectors like banks, non banking financial companies, capital goods or defence, telecom, jewellery, hospitals and consumer durables have a positive outlook. It however remained cautious on IT services, exports, cement, cements as well as oil and gas segments. “Resumption of hostilities in West Asia and El Nino remains a key risk to our call,” it said in a report dated July 10.

Notably, the conflict has now escalated further and oil prices have inched up as a result of Trump’s flipflop policies and closure of Strait of Hormuz, spooking investors.

PL Capital’s top stock picks

Among the large caps, PL Capital named Bharti Airtel, Britannia Industries, ICICI Bank, Kotak, Mahindra Bank, Larsen & Toubro, Shriram Finance and Titan Company as its top picks.

In the broader market space, Blue Star, CESC, DOMS Industries, Engineers India, HealthCare Global Enterprises, Ingersoll-Rand (India), Jindal Stainless and Rainbow Children’s Medicare were PL Capital’s top small and midcap picks.

Also read: Rekha Jhunjhunwala likely exits this smallcap metal stock after 90% rally in 1 year. Do you own?

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

PayPal shares rose about 15% in premarket trading after Reuters reported that payments company Stripe and private equity firm Advent International have made a joint offer to buy the company for more than $53 billion.

The offer values PayPal at $60.50 per share, according to the Reuters report, which cited two people familiar with the matter. The price is about 28% higher than PayPal’s closing share price on Tuesday.

The proposal was submitted earlier this month and is backed by about $50 billion in committed financing from banks, one of the people told Reuters. PayPal, Stripe and Advent declined to comment.

Stripe and Advent had first approached PayPal in early April, the report said. They have not yet received a response from PayPal and are looking to move talks forward in the coming weeks.

Also Read: ‘We faltered, did not move quickly:’ How IBM CEO Arvind Krishna’s statement led to $70 billion wipeout

Under the offer, Stripe and Advent would jointly own PayPal, with both holding equal stakes. The proposal does not involve breaking up the company, Reuters reported. The talks are still at an early stage and there is no certainty that they will lead to a deal.
PayPal shares were last up 16.2% in premarket trading after the report.PayPal was one of the earliest names in digital payments and became a major online checkout brand after being founded in the late 1990s. However, the company has faced rising competition in recent years from Apple Pay, Google Pay and other payment platforms.

The company was a big winner during the pandemic, when online shopping and digital payments surged. Its market value peaked at about $360 billion in 2021. Since then, growth has slowed and investor confidence has weakened. PayPal’s market capitalisation fell to as low as about $36 billion this year, and the stock has lost more than 40% of its value over the past 12 months.

A buyout offer from Stripe and Advent could give PayPal investors a large premium after a long period of weak stock performance. It could also bring together PayPal’s large consumer and merchant base with Stripe’s strength in online payments infrastructure.

After taking over in March, CEO Enrique Lores began a turnaround plan aimed at simplifying the company and returning it to stronger growth.

In April, PayPal split its operations into three units: checkout, consumer financial services including Venmo, and payments and crypto. The company also made several management changes as part of the restructuring.

The offer now puts PayPal at the centre of what could become one of the largest payments industry deals in recent years. Investors will watch whether PayPal agrees to engage with Stripe and Advent, or whether the company decides to continue with its own turnaround plan.