Bitcoin Slides 2.58% Below $77,000 as Fed Rate Bets and ETF Outflows Pressure Global Crypto Markets Once Again

NEW YORK — Bitcoin fell 2.58% to $76,150.36 by midday Tuesday, shedding $2,019.69, as expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate increase this week combined with persistent outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds to extend a multi-day slide for the world’s largest cryptocurrency.

The decline came as the Federal Open Market Committee began its two-day policy meeting Tuesday, with a rate decision due Wednesday. Nearly all traders now expect the Fed to raise its benchmark policy rate by 25 basis points, according to market pricing, a shift that has weighed on both equities and cryptocurrencies in recent sessions as higher interest rates typically reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets like Bitcoin relative to interest-bearing alternatives.

That rate-hike expectation firmed considerably following a hotter-than-expected August consumer price index report released last week. The inflation data pushed prediction market odds on Polymarket of a September 16 Fed rate hike as high as 83%, up sharply from levels seen just days earlier, adding fresh momentum to the pressure already building on Bitcoin’s price.

Compounding the selling pressure, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded four consecutive days of net outflows heading into the weekend, according to data tracking fund flows, as institutional and retail investors alike pulled money from the funds amid the shifting rate outlook. At the same time, long-term Bitcoin holders sold roughly 539,000 BTC into the $77,000 to $80,000 price zone, creating what market analysts have described as a persistent supply wall that has made it difficult for the cryptocurrency to sustain rallies above that range in recent weeks.

Technical analysts have flagged $76,500 as a key level to watch in the current environment. A sustained close below that threshold could open the door to a further decline toward the $72,000 to $74,000 range, according to chart-based analysis of the cryptocurrency’s recent price action, while a more dovish-than-expected outcome from Wednesday’s Fed decision could reverse the recent trend of ETF outflows and ease some of the pressure on the broader crypto market.

Bitcoin’s slide over the past two weeks has been steady rather than abrupt. The cryptocurrency touched an intraday peak near $82,000 on September 4 before beginning a gradual retreat, falling to roughly $79,155 by September 9 and continuing lower still following the hot inflation data released September 11. Bitcoin’s current price also sits well below its 52-week high of $126,198, reached on October 6, 2025, even as it remains meaningfully above its 52-week low of $57,748, touched on June 30 of this year. Year-to-date, Bitcoin remains down roughly 13% even before accounting for Tuesday’s decline.

The pressure on Bitcoin this week has not existed in isolation. Broader financial markets have faced their own bout of volatility tied to a weekend essay from a prominent artificial intelligence executive calling for a slower pace of AI model development, a debate that has rattled technology stocks globally over the past two trading sessions. Rising oil prices tied to escalating tensions in the Middle East have added a further layer of macroeconomic uncertainty, with both stocks and cryptocurrencies broadly trading in a more risk-averse pattern as a result.

Beyond the Federal Reserve, cryptocurrency markets are also monitoring central bank decisions elsewhere in the world this week. The Bank of Japan is widely expected to raise its own benchmark rate to 1.25% at its policy meeting later this week, which would mark the central bank’s highest rate level since 1995. Analysts tracking Bitcoin’s price action have noted that the cryptocurrency has so far shown limited direct reaction to that specific development, with the more immediate Federal Reserve decision remaining the dominant near-term catalyst for price movement.

Bitcoin’s underlying scarcity dynamics remain unchanged amid the current volatility, with the cryptocurrency’s supply capped at 21 million coins under its original protocol design. As of the most recent tracking, approximately 20.08 million bitcoins have been mined and are in circulation, leaving fewer than 1 million coins left to be created through the network’s ongoing mining process, a dynamic that has historically been cited by long-term holders as a structural argument for the asset’s value even amid periods of sharp short-term price volatility like the one currently unfolding.

Prediction markets have offered their own real-time gauge of where traders expect Bitcoin’s price to land in the near term. On Polymarket, the leading outcome for where Bitcoin’s price would land on September 15 was a range of $76,000 to $78,000, assigned roughly a 70% probability by traders, with the next most likely outcome, a range of $78,000 to $80,000, assigned about a 19% probability, reflecting a market broadly positioned for continued consolidation near current levels rather than a sharp reversal in either direction.

With the Federal Reserve’s rate decision now just a day away and the Bank of Japan’s own policy announcement following closely behind, investors in Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market are likely to remain focused on how central bank policy, ETF flow trends, and the broader risk-off sentiment currently affecting global equity markets interact in the sessions ahead, with Tuesday’s decline serving as the latest data point in what has become an increasingly cautious stretch for digital asset markets heading into the back half of September.