Indian benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty will remain in focus tomorrow, as the war in the Middle East flared up after the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Analysts expect Indian markets to see a gap-up opening tomorrow, noting that the long-term view remains constructive with crude oil prices being the key monitorable factor.

Khamenei’s death, which was confirmed by Iranian state media earlier today, triggered warnings about sharp retaliation from Tehran. US President Donald Trump announced that the 86-year-old leader had been killed on the first day of what he described as massive joint airstrikes.

Khamenei’s death can be seen as a massive development in the ongoing war in the Middle East. This opens up a period of uncertainty about Iran’s leadership, and worries around strong retaliation and rise in global tensions.

What to expect from markets tomorrow?

Sunny Agrawal, Head of Fundamental Retail Research at SBI Securities, sees the rising geopolitical tensions as a marginal negative for markets tomorrow, and doesn’t expect a knee-jerk reaction. The news around Khamenei’s death and possible retaliation can lead to a minor gap down opening on Monday. “After that, the uncertainties should normalise,” he said, adding that the ultimate monitorable will be crude oil prices.In case the oil prices remain calm, Agrawal doesn’t think markets will react majorly, and feels how markets will react in the longer term will be influenced by more developments in the future.

Kranthi Bathini of Wealth Mills Securities meanwhile said that nobody expected the expanding tensions in the Middle East, especially in UAE. So this will bear a negative impact on the financial markets in the short-to-medium term. “But as far as Indian markets are concerned, how crude oil performs will remain the key monitorable,” he added.
Bathini explained that one good thing is that India has been taking advantage of crude oil’s recent consolidation. “But if crude goes above $80 per barrel, this can create an inflationary pressure on the market,” he said.
“So one needs to watch how the crude is going to behave in the next few days,” Baithini said, adding that India’s domestic fundamentals remain strong. “Markets are definitely in a downturn at this point of time, driven by various reasons. So definitely it is going to have an impact from the wars in the short-to-medium term, and not in the long-term,” he added.
Manoranjan Sharma, Chief Economist at Infomerics Ratings, also noted that for India, which relies heavily on imported crude oil, the immediate consequence has been rising inflationary pressure triggered by higher energy prices.

“Indian equity markets have already responded with risk-off sentiment. Benchmark indices are expected to open lower, accompanied by heightened volatility as investors reassess geopolitical and commodity-related risks. A short-term correction of approximately 1–1.5% is possible, with sectors such as automobiles, financials, and FMCG facing downward pressure. In contrast, IT companies and select export-oriented businesses may find relative support amid global risk aversion and a strengthening US dollar,” he said.

Nachiketa Sawrikar, Fund Manager, Artha Bharat Global Multiplier Fund, explained that equity markets were already fragile in February, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite declining in the USA, and India’s Nifty 50 down on a year-to-date basis. “Against this backdrop, a USA and Israel attack on Iran would likely trigger broad selling of risky assets across both the developed and emerging markets,” he said.

“We would expect the ongoing rally in US treasuries, oil, gold, and silver to extend. For India, the impact is typically magnified: higher crude oil prices widen the current account deficit, stoke domestic inflation, pressure the rupee, and could lead to FII outflows as global investors reduce risk exposure,” he further said.

What should investors do?

Agrawal explained that 25,000 was a very strong support for Nifty for the last few months, and is expected to remain so in the near term. “If markets can hold on to the level, I don’t see any sharp reaction in the markets,” he said.

On being asked which sectors will likely react to the uncertainties the most, the analyst said that oil-linked stocks will remain in focus tomorrow. Oil marketing companies (OMC) stocks may see some downturn, while oil refineries may see an uptick in stock prices if oil prices rise. Paint, tyre and other stocks will also be in focus.

Investors should use any dip driven by the uncertainties as an opportunity to accumulate, Bathini meanwhile said. “When the Russia-Ukraine war started, Nifty 50 fell below 22,000. But after several years, markets ignored the factor and rebounded,” he added.

The analyst further said that as long as India’s trade is not disrupted, equity markets are going to recover losses after some time, he further said.

“Overall, markets remain highly sensitive to geopolitical risks and sector-specific pressures, driving investors toward defensive, domestically focused segments,” said Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investments Limited.

Indian stock markets declined sharply to close at near one-month low levels on Friday, with Sensex falling nearly 1,000 points and Nifty closing below the 25,200 mark. The selloff wiped off more than Rs 5 lakh crore in investors’ wealth, dragging down the total market capitalisation of all BSE-listed firms to around Rs 463 lakh crore.

The Indian benchmark indices extended losses for the second consecutive session, led by decline in realty, financial, auto and FMCG shares due to multiple factors. Sensex declined more than 961 points to 81,287, while Nifty 50 fell around 318 points to 25,179. Notably, Friday marked the first time since February 2 when Sensex closed below the 82,000 mark and Nifty 50 closed below the Rs 25,200 mark.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

The combined market valuation of nine of the top-10 most valued firms eroded by Rs 2,18,902.09 crore last week, with Bharti Airtel taking the biggest hit in line with a bearish trend in equities.

Last week, the BSE benchmark tanked 1,527.52 points or 1.84 per cent.

“Equity markets ended the week under notable pressure as persistent geopolitical tensions and weakness in technology stocks weighed on sentiment,” Ajit Mishra, SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd, said.

From the top-10 pack, Hindustan Unilever emerged as the only gainer.

The market valuation of Bharti Airtel tumbled Rs 55,852.12 crore to Rs 10,71,853.25 crore.

HDFC Bank‘s valuation eroded by Rs 37,580.1 crore to Rs 13,65,659.38 crore.
The market valuation of Reliance Industries dropped by Rs 34,846.12 crore to Rs 18,86,832.66 crore, and that of Bajaj Finance tanked by Rs 20,316.41 crore to Rs 6,20,070.59 crore.Tata Consultancy Services‘ market capitalisation (mcap) slumped Rs 18,180.89 crore to Rs 9,53,872.59 crore.

The valuation of Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC) dived Rs 14,990.24 crore to Rs 5,37,213.68 crore, and that of Larsen & Toubro fell by Rs 13,714.85 crore to Rs 5,88,837.39 crore.

The mcap of State Bank of India declined by Rs 13,061.33 crore to Rs 11,09,520.23 crore.

The valuation of ICICI Bank dipped by Rs 10,360.03 crore to Rs 9,86,986.64 crore.

However, Hindustan Unilever added Rs 5,462.81 crore, taking its mcap to Rs 5,49,393.18 crore.

Reliance Industries retained the title of the most valued firm, followed by HDFC Bank, State Bank of India, Bharti Airtel, ICICI Bank, TCS, Bajaj Finance, Larsen & Toubro, Hindustan Unilever and LIC.

“It was a massive loss for the disability sector when Clarity went under. So, will we ever have businesses again that are of that scale, that are public facing, doing those amazing things? Maybe not, but we’re doing it in our own way now at Amplify Goods,” she says.

Nifty’s decisive breach of its 200-day SMA at the close of the month has intensified concerns around a potential retest of recent swing lows, signalling that the market’s medium-term support framework is under pressure, says Anand James, Chief Market Strategist at Geojit Investments.

However, he notes that momentum oscillators have yet to confirm a full-fledged breakdown, indicating that an outright collapse is not imminent unless key support levels are decisively breached.

Edited excerpts from a chat:

Nifty ended the week around 1% lower as IT stocks pulled the index down. How do you see the market shaping up in the first week of March?

After persistently preventing a breakdown despite multiple attempts throughout the month, the 200-day SMA finally gave way on the last working day of the month. This has raised worries of a retest of February lows of 24571. However, with the first test of the lower Bollinger band, with super trend support at 25033 available within touching distance, we are hopeful of a recovery move in the second half of the week. However, slippage past the 25000 region could negate the prospects of a near-term recovery. That said, oscillators are yet to signal an outright collapse.

In the last 3 days, Nifty IT attempted to climb up. What do you think is this a dead cat bounce or sustainable uptrend? Is it too early to say that IT stocks have bottomed out?

Over the past few sessions, Nifty IT’s bounce looks more like a technical rebound than the start of a sustainable uptrend. The index recently hit a fresh 52 week low near 29875, and despite a minor uptick, it continues to trade below key moving averages, confirming a bearish setup.

On the daily chart, price remains below the immediate resistance at 31100-31300, and only a decisive move above 33200-34400 would indicate a structural trend change. Until then, rallies are vulnerable to selling. The weekly chart reinforces this weakness with the index breaking down from a recent H&S structure, marking a clear bearish phase.
If we look at the seasonality, the last 15 years show that March has been net negative on average for the Nifty IT Index, with a low win rate of just 40% and relatively high volatility, forming a bearish cloud over the sector.Given this backdrop, it is too early to declare a bottom. For a meaningful trend reversal, the index must protect 30,000 and form a higher low and reclaim and hold above 33,200-34,400.

Hence, the recent uptick in Nifty IT is more likely a dead‑cat bounce than the beginning of a new uptrend. The sector remains in a deep corrective phase with no confirmed bottom yet. We will wait for the price to reclaim key resistance zones before treating any bounce as the start of a durable reversal.

In the last 3 trading sessions, have we seen shorts winding up in IT stocks?

Although the first two sessions of the new series witnessed short‑covering in several stock futures, major index constituents such as TCS, Wipro, and Tech Mahindra lost momentum on Friday. Around 60% of the near‑ITM and OTM call option strikes saw fresh short additions, indicating caution at higher levels. Additionally, nearly 60% of stock futures registered short build‑up on Friday, and close to 80% showed short additions on a week‑on‑week basis. Overall, the derivatives landscape suggests that traders remain unconvinced by the recent pullback and may be positioning lightly for further downside before considering fresh bullish exposure.

Metals are doing well. What are the charts telling you?

On the daily chart, the Nifty Metal Index is consolidating just below the 12450-12500 resistance zone, marked by multiple failed attempts to break higher. Candles show tight-bodied price action near the upper band of the previous rally, indicating buyers are still active but facing overhead supply. The trend structure remains positive with price holding above the short‑term moving averages and maintaining higher lows. However, the latest red candle and a mild rollover in the MACD histogram suggest short‑term loss of momentum, warranting caution if 12150-12200 is breached.

On the weekly chart, the index has displayed a strong medium-term uptrend, having broken above prior swing highs with expanding bullish candles. The price continues to ride the green cloud zone, reflecting healthy trend strength. Elevated volumes in recent weeks reinforce the possibility of institutional participation.

If we look at the derivatives picture, it presents mixed signals. Around 80% of metal stock futures saw short additions on Friday, while roughly 60% added longs on a week‑on‑week basis. Furthermore, nearly 80% of the near‑OTM call option strikes witnessed short build‑up on Friday. Taken together, F&O traders appear to be positioning for some short‑term negativity

So, expect near term weakness but a decisive weekly close above 12,500 could trigger the next leg higher.

Tejas was the biggest gainer in the week. How would you trade the stock now?

The steepness of the last two days’ rise as well as the approach of a near term resistance at 441 raises potential for a pause. However, we believe that the stock is poised for larger gains, supported by a narrow range breakout as well as bullish continuation patterns, projecting a near term objective of 522-533. Stop loss may be placed near 389 or 376.

Give us your top ideas of the week.

PARAGMILK (CMP: 202)

View: Buy

Target: 222 – 235

Stoploss – 187The weekly chart shows the stock in a corrective phase after a sharp decline from the 360-380 region. Price has now dropped toward a key support zone around 180-190, which aligns closely with the 200 WMA, historically a strong long‑term support area. The Doji candle formed in the weekly scale reflects a slowdown in bearish momentum, suggesting early signs of stabilization as buyers attempt to defend this level.

Despite the correction, the broader trend structure from mid‑2023 to 2025 still reflects a sequence of higher highs and higher lows keeping the longer‑term uptrend intact.

The weekly MACD histograms have shifted back in favor of buyers. A flattening or upward turn in the MACD line would serve as the first confirmation of renewed strength.

Overall, the stock is positioned at a critical support juncture warranting a pullback toward 225-235, while a decisive close below the 200-week moving average may open downside potential toward 160.

HEG (CMP: 578)

View: Buy

Target: 625

Stoploss – 560HEG is displaying a steady medium‑term uptrend on the weekly chart, supported by consistent higher lows since mid‑2024. The price continues to trade well above the 200‑WMA, indicating strong long‑term structural strength. Recent candles show tightening consolidation between 540 and 600, suggesting the stock is building energy for its next directional move.

The latest bounce from the lower end of this range reflects active dip buying, keeping the overall bias positive as long as the stock holds above 560-40. A decisive weekly close above 600 would confirm a breakout continuation, opening the path toward higher targets.

The weekly MACD remains slightly positive but flat, implying momentum is still neutral and awaiting a trigger.

Overall, HEG remains in a constructive setup. Sustaining above support and breaking past 600 with volume would strengthen the bullish case.