Brent and WTI Swing as Iran-Oman Deal Over Strait of Hormuz Remains Uncertain

Global oil prices remained volatile heading into the weekend, trading well below recent highs as investors weighed conflicting signals from Iran and the United States over a potential agreement to restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints.

West Texas Intermediate futures opened at $78.31 a barrel on Aug. 7, according to Forbes Advisor, while Brent crude opened at $83.49 a barrel that same day. As of Sunday, live pricing data from PriceOfOil.com showed both benchmarks continuing to trade in that general range, with Brent hovering near $83 and WTI near $78, according to tracking from Trading Economics and Oilprice.com.

A market still reacting to the Hormuz standoff

Brent crude has swung sharply in recent sessions as traders try to gauge the likelihood of a breakthrough in talks between Iran and Oman over managing navigation through the strait. According to Trading Economics, Brent traded below $82 a barrel on Friday, moving between gains and losses throughout the session as investors weighed the state of those negotiations.

Optimism over a potential partial reopening of the waterway faded after reports that Iran was seeking to exclude U.S. and Israeli vessels from the strait entirely and impose fees on countries it considers hostile — terms that stand in sharp contrast to Washington’s push for unrestricted transit and a full return to pre-war shipping conditions. President Donald Trump has maintained an optimistic public tone throughout the negotiations, saying the broader conflict could end “pretty soon” and that discussions were progressing, according to Trading Economics’ market coverage.

Adding to the uncertainty, Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. reported attacks on multiple vessels transiting the strait, with Iran reportedly targeting ships it considers hostile even as diplomatic talks continued. Iran-backed Houthi militants separately claimed a large-scale attack against Saudi-aligned forces in Yemen, further complicating the security picture across the broader region.

A proposed Iranian framework worries markets

Trading Economics reported that Iran has proposed penalties equal to 20% of a vessel’s cargo value for violations of its terms, while insisting the strait would only be fully reopened once the U.S. maritime blockade of Iran is lifted. That draft proposal, outlining stricter conditions for commercial shipping than markets had anticipated, remains under review by the Iranian parliament.

Oil briefly reversed some gains in post-settlement trading last week following reports that the U.S. could lift its naval blockade once commercial shipping through the strait resumes without restrictions — a potential off-ramp that traders continue to watch closely for signs of a genuine breakthrough.

Prices well off their April peak, despite the conflict

Even with the ongoing disruption, oil prices remain considerably below levels seen earlier this year. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s Short-Term Energy Outlook, published July 7, the Brent crude spot price averaged $85 a barrel in June, down $22 a barrel from May and $32 a barrel from its recent April 2026 peak.

The EIA’s forecast, issued before the current wave of Hormuz-related volatility intensified, projected Brent averaging $74 a barrel in the third quarter of 2026 — a $27-a-barrel reduction from the agency’s prior monthly outlook at the time — citing expectations of ongoing oil inventory accumulation that would continue pressuring prices lower. The agency’s outlook had assumed that a June 18 memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran to end the conflict and reopen the strait would hold, projecting most crude oil production would return to near pre-conflict averages by the end of the year. Given the subsequent breakdown in that agreement and the renewed attacks on shipping, market conditions have shifted meaningfully since that forecast was published, and the EIA’s next outlook, due Aug. 11, is likely to reflect the changed picture.

What it means at the pump

Lower crude prices earlier in the summer had been expected to translate into cheaper gasoline for American drivers. The EIA’s July forecast projected U.S. gasoline prices averaging $3.80 a gallon in the third quarter, down from more than $4.20 a gallon in the second quarter, though the agency cautioned that a portion of the crude-driven savings could be offset by rising wholesale and retail margins tied to low gasoline inventories.

Broader market ripple effects

The prolonged uncertainty over Middle East energy supply has also influenced other markets. According to Oilprice.com’s broader coverage, lower oil prices in recent weeks have helped boost gold, as easing inflation concerns and softer U.S. economic data reduce expectations for further Federal Reserve policy tightening. Separately, some governments have leaned more heavily on coal in the short term while accelerating investments in renewable energy, as the ongoing Middle East conflict tightens global liquefied natural gas markets and raises broader concerns about energy security.

Looking ahead

With Iran’s parliament still reviewing its proposed shipping framework and no finalized agreement between Tehran and Washington in place, analysts expect oil prices to remain highly sensitive to any fresh developments out of the Strait of Hormuz talks in the days ahead. Traders are likely to continue closely tracking statements from Iranian officials, the Trump administration, and Gulf shipping authorities for signs of whether a genuine de-escalation — or a further breakdown — is more likely in the near term.