A new Emerson College Polling survey released March 11, 2026, shows Democratic U.S. Rep. Eric Swalwell emerging as the frontrunner in California’s nonpartisan primary for governor, capturing 17% support among likely voters just three months before the June 2 election.

The poll, conducted March 7-9 in partnership with Inside California Politics and Nexstar, surveyed 1,000 likely voters and carries a credibility interval of plus or minus 3 percentage points. Swalwell’s lead marks a shift from earlier surveys where Republicans held stronger positions, reflecting growing consolidation among Democratic voters.

Trailing Swalwell are Republican commentator Steve Hilton at 13%, billionaire environmentalist Tom Steyer and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco tied at 11% each, and former U.S. Rep. Katie Porter at 8%. A significant 25% of likely voters remain undecided, underscoring the fluid state of the race in the nation’s most populous state.

“Rep. Swalwell’s support increased among Democratic voters in the past month from 23% to 27%, along with Tom Steyer, whose support among this group also increased from 12% to 16%,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. The gains suggest Democrats are coalescing around familiar names as the field of more than a dozen candidates—nine Democrats and two Republicans—competes to advance the top two to the November general election under California’s top-two primary system.

The Emerson results align with a March 11 UC Berkeley Citrin Center for Public Opinion Research poll for Politico, which showed Hilton leading at 19%, followed by Steyer at 13%, Swalwell at 11%, and Bianco at 11%. That survey of 1,004 likely voters had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points and highlighted Hilton’s strength among independents and Republicans.

Earlier polling from the Public Policy Institute of California in late February painted a tighter picture, with five candidates in a virtual tie: Hilton (R) at 14%, Porter (D) at 13%, Bianco (R) at 12%, Swalwell (D) at roughly similar levels, and Steyer (D) close behind. PPIC’s February 3-11 survey of likely voters found about 10% undecided at that time, with satisfaction in the candidate field at around 60%.

The race to succeed term-limited Gov. Gavin Newsom has drawn national attention as California remains a Democratic stronghold, though Republicans have occasionally advanced to the general election in recent cycles. The top-two finishers advance regardless of party, setting up potential Democrat-vs.-Democrat or Democrat-vs.-Republican matchups in November.

Swalwell’s rise comes amid his emphasis on affordability, public safety, and progressive priorities, resonating in a state grappling with high housing costs, homelessness, and economic pressures. Hilton, a former Fox News contributor, appeals to conservative and independent voters frustrated with Sacramento’s direction, while Bianco leverages his law enforcement background on crime issues. Steyer brings environmental credentials and financial resources, and Porter maintains progressive appeal from her congressional tenure.

Undecided voters and low single-digit support for others—including San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, and several lesser-known contenders—suggest room for movement as campaigning intensifies. High-profile names like Mahan, backed by Silicon Valley donors, could see surges with increased visibility.

Broader voter sentiment from the PPIC survey showed majorities prioritizing candidates’ positions on affordability for both governor and congressional races. About seven in ten likely voters expressed interest in town halls and debates, while half said they were not closely following the race yet.

The June primary also features contests for other statewide offices, U.S. House seats, and the state Legislature, with Democrats favored in most congressional matchups per PPIC findings (62% to 36% over Republicans). The governor’s race dominates headlines, however, as the most high-stakes open contest in decades.

As the campaign heats up, fundraising reports, endorsements, and debate performances could reshape the field further. With significant undecided blocs and shifting Democratic consolidation, the race remains wide open heading toward the primary.

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