Bullish momentum continues, but analysts warn of near-term resistance

Mumbai: Indian equity gauges, battered in March due to the Iran war, eked out gains for the second straight week Friday on expectations the recent overtures of peace by both Iran and the US would move beyond tokenism into durable peace for a region that slakes the energy thirst of the world’s fastest-expanding major economy.

Recent gains for the rupee, which last fiscal ended up with the wooden spoon among Asian peers against the dollar, and expectations of further reduction in oil prices boosted equities such that investors were willing to bet beyond the frontliners, spotlighting appetite for stocks that are higher up the risk gradient.

The NSE’s Nifty rose 156.8 points or 0.65% to close at 24,353.55. BSE’s Sensex rose 504.86 points or 0.65% to end at 78,493.54. Both indices gained up to 1.3% this week. The Nifty had lost nearly 11% in March, its worst monthly fall since the Covid, as the rupee plunged in FY26 the most in 14 years in a pronouncedly backloaded retreat.

“This week’s gains were led by easing tensions in West Asia. As long as the conflict remains contained, with cooling oil prices and rupee strength, the positive bias is likely to persist,” said Sunny Agrawal, head of research, SBI Securities.

Elsewhere in Asia, Japan fell 1.8%, China declined 0.1%, Hong Kong fell 0.9%, South Korea declined 0.6%, and Taiwan dropped 0.9%. The pan-Europe index Stoxx 600 was flat at the time of going to print.

Brent crude June futures eased to around $89 a barrel on Friday evening after swinging above and below the $100 mark through much of the week.
US President Donald Trump claimed Iran has yielded ground in ongoing talks to bring the seven-week conflict to an end. Meanwhile, the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon has strengthened expectations of a wider de-escalation.

Beyond Headlines
Among the broad market indices, the Nifty Mid Cap 150 gained 1.2% and Nifty Small Cap 250 rose 1.5%. For the week, both gauges gained 3.5-4.4%.

Out of the total 4,493 stocks traded on the BSE, 2,999 advanced and 1,327 had declined at close.

The Volatility Index or VIX, the market’s fear gauge, fell 4.9% to 17.21 levels on Friday, indicating some cool-off in traders’ risk perception. The index has declined over 19% in the past five trading sessions.

The rally could still run into headwinds, said analysts.

The Nifty index is now approaching a crucial resistance zone of 24,300-24,500, where profit booking could emerge, according to Mehul Kothari, DVP – technical research, Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers.

“From a technical perspective, the recent rally has been largely one-sided, and early signs of negative divergence are beginning to appear on the hourly charts,” he said. “This suggests that momentum may be slowing, even as prices continue to edge higher, and as a result, a short-term pullback towards the 23,600-23,700 zone cannot be ruled out,” he said.

Foreign portfolio investors net bought shares worth ₹683 crore. Domestic institutions were sellers to the tune of ₹4,721 crore.