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Rates May Be Too Low After A Strong January Jobs Report

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Rates May Be Too Low After A Strong January Jobs Report

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Michael Kramer is the founder of Mott Capital, and is a long-only investor who focuses on macro themes and studies trends and options activities to identify and assess entry and exit points for investments in his long-term focused thematic growth strategy. He is a former buy-side trader, analyst, and portfolio manager with 30 years of experience tracking market technicals, fundamentals, and options.Michael Kramer leads the investing group Reading the Markets, where he helps a devoted following of members to better understand what is driving trading and where the market is likely heading, both the short and long-term. Features of the investing group include: daily written commentary and videos analyzing the driving factors behind price action; general macro trend education to help members make well-informed decisions based on market conditions, interest rates, currency movements and how they all interact; chat for questions and community dialogue; and regular Zoom videos sessions to discuss current ideas and answer questions. The level of access RTM subscribers and the expertise of the source are unprecedented given that the subscription price is a fraction of similar technical coaching and mentoring services. Learn more.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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S&P 500, Nasdaq dip with economic data, earnings in focus

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S&P 500, Nasdaq dip with economic data, earnings in focus
The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq closed lower on Tuesday while the Dow edged up to its third record close in a row, as investors digested disappointing retail sales figures and waited for a key labor market report. The S&P 500 communication services sector was the market’s weakest sector, weighed down by Alphabet shares, which fell 1.8% after Google’s parent said it sold bonds worth $20 billion.

The announcement played in to investor ‌worries about the amount of ⁠money technology ⁠companies say they must spend to support the artificial-intelligence boom, with Amazon, Alphabet, Meta and Microsoft collectively set to spend hundreds of billions in 2026 as they race for AI dominance. Meanwhile, U.S. retail sales unexpectedly stalled in December as households scaled back spending on vehicles and other big-ticket items, suggesting a slower growth path for consumer spending and the economy heading into the new year. The flat reading compared with economists’ estimates for 0.4% growth. Trader hopes edged up for a more dovish Federal Reserve with the probability of a one-notch April rate cut up to 36.9% from 32.2% on Monday, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool. Markets still expect, however, that the central bank will keep rates on hold until June, when President Donald Trump’s Fed chair nominee, Kevin Warsh, would take charge if approved by the U.S. Senate.

Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist ⁠at Janney Montgomery Scott, ‌described the disappointing retail data as “bad news is good news,” particularly for rate-sensitive industry indexes such as utilities and real estate , ​which were leading the ​benchmark’s sector gainers.

But the strategist pointed to caution ahead of the delayed but closely watched nonfarm payrolls report, due on Wednesday.

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“In ⁠anticipation of the jobs report, nobody wants to get too far above their risk budget in ​the event the number does cause some consternation,” said Luschini. Potentially adding some angst was White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett’s ​comment on Monday that U.S. job gains could be lower in the coming months because of slower labor force growth and higher productivity due to AI gains.


The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 52.27 points, or 0.10%, to 50,188.14, after hitting an intraday record high earlier in the day. The S&P 500 lost 23.01 points, or 0.33%, to 6,941.81 and the Nasdaq Composite lost 136.20 points, or 0.59%, to 23,102.47.
With the S&P 500 narrowly missing a return to its late January record close on Monday, Janney’s Luschini said: “When a security or an index reapproaches a high level again there’s often some hesitation, some contention that has to take place before it can break through that peak again.” Gains ‌of more than 2% in stocks such as Walt Disney and Home Depot helped push up the blue-chip Dow, countering declines in shares including Coca-Cola, which finished down 1.5% after missing Wall Street estimates for fourth-quarter revenue.In other individual stocks, Datadog jumped 13.7% and led S&P 500 ​percentage gainers on the ​day after the cloud-based monitoring and analytics platform ⁠beat quarterly estimates. In the consumer discretionary sector, Marriott closed up 8.5% for its biggest daily gain since April after also hitting a record high. The hotel chain projected a 35% jump in fees from co-branded credit cards, as affluent travelers splurge on luxury vacations. Shares of S&P Global slumped 9.7%, making it the biggest loser in the S&P 500 ​after forecasting 2026 profit below analysts’ estimates. Peers Moody’s and MSCI also fell. Spotify shares soared 14.7% after the audio-streaming platform forecast first-quarter earnings above expectations, benefiting from strong user growth and price hikes.

Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 1.47-to-1 ratio on the NYSE where there were 795 new highs and 65 new lows. On the Nasdaq, 2,276 stocks rose and 2,447 fell as declining issues outnumbered advancers by a 1.08-to-1 ratio.

The S&P 500 posted 72 new 52-week highs and 11 new lows while the Nasdaq Composite recorded 105 new highs and 107 new lows.

On U.S. exchanges, 17.89 billion shares changed hands compared with the 20.68 billion-share moving average for the last 20 sessions.

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MJ Gleeson hails ‘robust’ performance despite seeing a drop in profits

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The Yorkshire firm saw revenues rise in the first half of its financial year but was hampered by increasing costs

A Gleeson Homes development

A Gleeson Homes development(Image: Gleeson Homes)

Housebuilder MJ Gleeson has reported a “robust performance in a subdued market” as revenues increased but profits fell.

The Sheffield firm, which specialises in homes at the lower end of the housing market, has released half year results in which turnover increased 9.6% to £173.1m. But over the same period, operating profit fell by 17.6% to £4.2m.

Gleeson sold 848 homes in the period (up from 801 on the same period last year) and its net reservation rate increased significantly. Average selling prices for its homes went up 2.5% to £198,800.

Its Gleeson Partnerships arm, which focused on building affordable homes for housing associations and private rental investors, secured three further agreements and delivered its first homes. But it was a tougher period for its Gleeson Land division, which fell to a loss despite three land sale transactions in the period and five sites being marketed or in a sales process.

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The company said it was “cautiously encouraged by early signs of a recovery in open market demand” with reservation rates in recent weeks up on the end of 2025 though not yet at last year’s levels.

Gleeson said that further changes implemented in January to complete a restructuring of the company would lead to costs of up to £4.5m that would be recognised as exceptional during the second half of the company’s financial year.

Chief executive officer Graham Prothero said: “For the full year, whilst current market expectations remain achievable, a strong Spring selling season remains fundamental to our assumptions in delivering on those expectations and we need to see the recovery gain further momentum. The bulk market has softened further, as investors remain cautious and focused on pricing.

“Margins continue to be pressured as net selling price increases are outpaced by build costs, and we experience increasing regulatory and tax headwinds. We will update our guidance in April 2026 with the benefit of greater trading visibility through to the year end.

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“With the right structure and leadership in both businesses, the Group is in a strong position to deliver on its medium-term strategic objectives.”

Gleeson’s results have been released in a week of big announcements from companies in the housebuilding sector. The UK’s largest housebuilder, Barratt Redrow has posted falling half-year profits as it said the late autumn Budget created “significant uncertainty” on top of a lack of homebuyer confidence and spending power. That comes a day after Newcastle firm Bellway had revealed growth in house completions and an increase in its average price.

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Ferrari Projects Higher Revenue as New Models Drive Growth

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Ferrari Projects Higher Revenue as New Models Drive Growth

Ferrari said it expects revenue and earnings to rise this year, supported by its lineup of higher-margin luxury sports models and demand for customized vehicles.

The Italian luxury sports-car maker expects full-year revenue of around 7.5 billion euros ($8.94 billion) this year, up from the 7.15 billion euros it reported in 2025, with the year set to be dictated by new models and higher income from racing activities and its lifestyle business. However, higher investments and currency could drag on earnings.

Copyright ©2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8

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Lactaid debuts coffee creamers

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Lactaid debuts coffee creamers

The lactose-free creamers are offered in three flavors. 

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Form 6K Kinross Gold Corp For: 11 February

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Form 6K Kinross Gold Corp For: 11 February

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Microchip Technology Incorporated (MCHP) Presents at Wolfe Research Auto, Auto Tech and Semiconductor Conference 2026 Transcript

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OneWater Marine Inc. (ONEW) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Q3: 2026-02-05 Earnings Summary

EPS of $0.44 beats by $0.01

 | Revenue of $1.19B (15.59% Y/Y) beats by $973.81K

Microchip Technology Incorporated (MCHP) Wolfe Research Auto, Auto Tech and Semiconductor Conference 2026 February 11, 2026 9:40 AM EST

Company Participants

Matthias Kaestner
Sajid Daudi – Head of Investor Relations

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Conference Call Participants

Christopher Caso – Wolfe Research, LLC

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Presentation

Christopher Caso
Wolfe Research, LLC

Okay. Good morning, everyone. We’ll move on to our next presentation. I’m Chris Caso, Wolfe’s semiconductor analyst. So thanks for joining us at our conference. Next up is Microchip. With us from Microchip is Matthias Kaestner. Hopefully, I pronounced that correctly.

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Matthias Kaestner

Matt is good.

Christopher Caso
Wolfe Research, LLC

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Matt is good. That’s fine. And Sajid Daudi from Investor Relations. Matthias is the Corporate VP of Auto, Data Center and Networking. I know Microchip has had you out on the road a bit with investors recently because we’ve heard data center is kind of good right now. So thanks for joining us. I know — and Eric, if you’re listening, I hope you feel better.

Question-and-Answer Session

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Christopher Caso
Wolfe Research, LLC

So maybe to start and Microchip has been pretty vocal over the last quarter or so with a view that the cycle is really starting to turn. And of course, Microchip was a little later to see the recovery, and now it sounds like that you are. So maybe you can give us an update of kind of what you see from a booking standpoint, from what’s going on with customers, particularly as we go into the Chinese New Year holiday, which I know is an important time for you.

Matthias Kaestner

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Yes. And before we begin, I’ll just kind of share the safe harbor statements, which is that during the course of this discussion, we’ll be making certain forward-looking projections regarding the future outlook of Microchip, and we refer you to the SEC filings that

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CeBev LLC, New Tree Fruit Co. form partnership

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CeBev LLC, New Tree Fruit Co. form partnership

The “de-sugared” juice line will be offered in schools.

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Yorkshire and Humber business optimism hits 15-month high as activity nears growth

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A NatWest survey highlights growing optimism but jobs are still falling in private sector companies

Hull City Centre.

Hull City Centre.(Image: pharbour)

Business optimism in the Yorkshire and Humber has reached a 15-month high as activity in the area returned almost to growth, a survey suggests.

The NatWest Regional Growth Tracker – which measures the month-on-month change in the region’s manufacturing and service sectors – remained just below the 50.0 no-change mark, but rose for a second month in a row in January to 49.3.

Private sector companies in Yorkshire and Humber region recorded back-to-back months of new business growth and firms taking part in the survey highlighted neww product launches, upbeat sales projections, planned investment activity and supportive economic tailwinds.

But payroll numbers in the area fell for a 14th consecutive month, with only Wales out of all of the UK’s regions and nations seeing a sharper fall in job numbers.

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Malcolm Buchanan, chair of the NatWest regional board, said: “Sustained growth in demand for Yorkshire & Humber goods and services and a strengthening of firms’ year-ahead expectations for activity serve as promising leading indicators for the region’s economy. A softening of cost pressures, in tandem with stronger increases in prices charged, also bodes well from a margins perspective, implying a diminished strain on earnings.

“However, the local labour market continues to be challenged by a hesitancy among firms to grow their workforces. Payroll numbers fell for a 14th straight month in January, and at a rate that outpaced the UK-wide average. However, the more upbeat business outlook could spur hiring, as firms look to achieve their more bullish growth forecasts for 2026.”

The survey has been released as data being released tomorrow is expected to show that the UK economy has grown modestly again in the last three months of 2025 amid pressure from budget uncertainty.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) will shed light on how the economy fared when it reveals the latest UK GDP (gross domestic product) data for December, and the final quarter and year as a whole. Economists have broadly predicted that the economy grew by 0.1% in the quarter, following growth of 0.1% in the third quarter.

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Oscar Health Widens Insurance Losses Despite Revenue Gains, Targets Profitability

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Oscar Health Widens Insurance Losses Despite Revenue Gains, Targets Profitability

Oscar Health’s OSCR 6.19%increase; green up pointing triangle fourth-quarter loss widened as the health insurer continued to struggle with the high utilization of medical services by plan enrollees, but revenue rose and the company continues to target profitability this year.

The health insurer, which focuses on individuals and small businesses, posted a loss of $352.6 million, or $1.24 a share, wider than the $153.5 million, or 62 cents a share, reported a year earlier.

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