Cipher Mining (CIFR) Stock Surges 12% Post-Earnings on HPC Pivot, $9.3 Billion Contracts Fuel Rebrand

Cipher Mining Inc. shares jumped more than 12% on February 24, 2026, closing at $17.12 after the company reported fourth-quarter 2025 results and detailed a major strategic shift from Bitcoin mining to high-performance computing (HPC) infrastructure, complete with a rebrand to Cipher Digital and $9.3 billion in long-term hyperscaler contracts.

The rally followed the February 24 earnings release and business update, where Cipher announced revenue of $60 million for Q4—below analyst estimates of around $84 million—and an adjusted net loss of $55 million, or $0.14 per share, wider than the forecasted $0.06 loss. Despite the miss, investors focused on the forward-looking transformation: Cipher has secured two major HPC data center leases totaling 600 MW of gross capacity and approximately $9.3 billion in contracted revenue over initial 10- to 15-year terms, with extension options.

The flagship deals include a 15-year lease with Amazon Web Services for 300 MW at the Black Pearl facility in Texas, generating about $5.5 billion in revenue at nearly 100% net operating income (NOI) margin, backed by Amazon’s guarantee on base rent and expenses. A separate 10-year modified gross lease with Fluidstack for 300 MW at Barber Lake carries roughly $3.8 billion in revenue at an 86% NOI margin, with Google providing a backstop guarantee up to $1.73 billion. Management projects average annualized NOI of $669 million from October 2026 through September 2036 from these contracts alone, rising to about $754 million annually by 2035.

CEO Tyler Page described 2025 as a “defining year,” marking the completion of Cipher’s evolution from a Bitcoin miner to a digital infrastructure platform. The company has contracted for HPC on about 74% of its pro forma 807 MW capacity, with the remaining 26% tied to Bitcoin self-mining at the Odessa site (approximately 207 MW at a power cost of roughly $0.028/kWh). Cipher plans to exit Bitcoin mining by the end of 2026, holding about 1,166 BTC as of February 20 and intending to monetize opportunistically without further mining capex.

To fund the pivot, Cipher raised substantial capital through senior secured high-yield bonds: $2.0 billion at 6.125% for Black Pearl (fully funding completion by October 2026), $1.4 billion at 7.125% for Barber Lake (also fully financed), and additional project-level debt. Liquidity stood strong at around $860 million as of mid-February, including cash and Bitcoin holdings.

Recent expansions bolster the pipeline. Cipher acquired the 200 MW Ulysses site in Ohio for future HPC development, diversifying beyond Texas. Near-term energization targets include Stingray (100 MW, Q4 2026) and Reveille (70 MW, Q3 2027). The company also divested its 49% stake in joint ventures (Alborz, Bear, and Chief Mountain) to Canaan Inc. in a non-cash transaction that included 6,840 mining rigs, streamlining operations.

Analysts have responded positively to the HPC focus amid surging AI demand. Consensus among 14-16 firms rates Cipher a Moderate Buy to Strong Buy, with average 12-month price targets around $25.11 to $27.00—implying 45-58% upside from the February 24 close. High-end targets reach $38 from Morgan Stanley, citing the bitcoin-to-datacenter conversion trend, while others like Northland Securities ($27.50), Needham ($26), Rosenblatt ($33), and BTIG ($25) maintain Buy ratings. The pivot aligns with broader industry shifts toward AI infrastructure, where power-rich sites offer stable, high-margin leases compared to volatile crypto mining.

Challenges remain. The Q4 miss stemmed from a tough Bitcoin environment and hashrate reductions (from 23.6 EH/s to 11.6 EH/s), contributing to ongoing losses. Execution risks include construction timelines, power sourcing, and integration of HPC operations. Regulatory and energy market dynamics could impact costs.

Upcoming catalysts include progress on Barber Lake and Black Pearl commencements in October 2026, potential additional leases, and Q1 2026 results expected in May. Management emphasized scaling construction, engineering, and operations teams with HPC expertise to originate and operate at scale.

Cipher Digital’s trajectory reflects the evolving digital infrastructure landscape. By leveraging its Texas power advantages and securing tier-1 tenants like AWS and Google-backed deals, the company positions itself for predictable, long-term cash flows in the AI era. Investors see the rebrand and contracts as validating the pivot, with the stock’s post-earnings surge underscoring optimism that execution could drive significant value creation through the decade.