Coal India, NMDC emerge as must-watch mining plays as spot prices surge, says Motilal Oswal’s Siddhartha Khemka

India’s mining and metals sectors are flashing opportunity signals, with spot price surges in coal and iron ore creating a compelling earnings catalyst for Coal India and NMDC, according to Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Retail Research at brokerage firm Motilal Oswal.

“Coal India is expected to see a 6% QoQ volume growth while NMDC is likely to see a strong 20% QoQ volume growth,” Khemka told ET Now, adding that rising e-auction premiums stand to materially boost Coal India’s profitability. The stock is his preferred pick within the mining space, underpinned by a structural demand thesis: India’s thermal power requirements are set to climb sharply, driven by an expected intense summer season and the longer-term electricity appetite of AI infrastructure and data centres.

Motilal is pencilling in approximately 9% sequential revenue growth for the sector, with realisations improving by Rs 4,000–5,000 per tonne on a sequential basis. Hot-rolled coil prices are seen rising by Rs 6,700 per tonne and rebars by Rs 10,000 per tonne. Base industrial metals are the standout performers — aluminium and copper are tracking 13%–16% sequential improvement, supported by constrained supply and robust global demand. Chinese export prices and EU prices have also firmed, with the latter up around 9% sequentially.

Within non-ferrous metals, Khemka singles out Nalco, citing strong alumina volumes, higher alumina prices, a debt-free balance sheet, and a multi-year capacity expansion roadmap. On the ferrous side, Jindal Stainless earns a place in his portfolio for its shift toward higher value-added products and its exposure to firming nickel prices. Alongside Coal India, these three names constitute his metals picks for the current cycle.

Banking: The Tide Turns Toward Private

The Q4 earnings season is set to expose a widening gulf between India’s private and public sector banks. Khemka projects aggregate earnings growth of roughly 12% year-on-year for private banks, against a meagre 2% for their PSU counterparts, a gap he attributes squarely to base effects and the NIM recovery dynamic now unfolding.
With the Reserve Bank of India having held rates steady, banks that spent much of the last financial year passing on cuts to borrowers are beginning to see margins stabilise and recover. “With the status quo maintained, they will be able to see a stronger NIM improvement,” Khemka said.
SBI remains Motilal Oswal’s top pick in the large-bank space. Khemka forecasts a 13% earnings CAGR over the next two to three years, with return on assets of 1.1% and return on equity of approximately 16% — all while the stock continues to trade at a meaningful discount to HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank. “Despite the ups and downs in the market, in the industry, in the environment, SBI has been delivering on a consistent basis,” he said.
ICICI Bank follows closely. After a period of valuation-driven caution, a time correction in the stock has brought multiples to more comfortable levels. Khemka sees domestic loan growth of around 12%, steady NIMs of approximately 4.3%, and best-in-class asset quality supporting a re-rating toward 2.2 times one-year forward adjusted price-to-book, up from current levels near 1.8 times.

Also read: Ola Electric vs Ather Energy: Which stock looks better after a stellar surge of up to 70% in April?

Autos Rev Higher; Consumption Stays Mixed

The auto sector delivered a strong Q4 on volumes, with the overall segment clocking 23% growth. Tractors led at 33%, followed by two-wheelers at 25% and commercial vehicles at 22%, the latter benefiting from a cyclical recovery. Passenger vehicles lagged at 15%. Input cost pressures are a headwind, but Khemka remains bullish on two-wheelers, tractors, and CVs as the three sub-segments to watch.

Within consumption, jewellery has proven resilient despite gold’s sharp rally, making Titan its top pick in discretionary. Radico Khaitan is expected to deliver strong numbers in the liquor space. Among staples, Marico screens well. Quick-service restaurants show early signs of recovery but face near-term uncertainty from LPG supply disruptions.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)