Commodity Radar: Why is copper in a bullish trade set-up and offers buy on dips opportunity? Religare analyst decodes

Copper prices are showing signs of a near-term rebound as easing geopolitical tensions and improving demand cues lift sentiment. After a sharp sell-off triggered by the Strait of Hormuz blockade, prices recovered on hopes of U.S.–Iran talks, while softer inflation data from China added to optimism around physical demand. However, rising inventories on the London Metal Exchange may cap sharp upside in the short term.

April copper futures on the MCX jumped 1.7% intraday on Wednesday, hitting the day’s high of Rs 1290.60 even as the trade remained lackluster in the international markets. The price of the red metal was flat at $6.08 on the COMEX, with the bias remaining negative.

Commenting on the prevailing trends, Ajit Mishra, Senior Vice President, Research at Religare Broking said the copper outlook for the near term indicates improving upside potential, driven by a shifting geopolitical landscape. After a sharp drop last Monday due to the Strait of Hormuz blockade, prices rebounded by the mid-week amid hopes for U.S.–Iran peace talks emerged. Meanwhile, China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March 2026 showed a year-on-year (YoY) increase of 1.0%, a slight cooling from the 1.3% growth recorded in February, he said.

“This was supportive for the base metals market especially copper as it was an interpretation of improving physical demand outlook. The holistic view is bullish but the rising LME inventories shall curb the chances of any sharp rally, at least for the short term,” Mishra said.

Technical Outlook

LME copper jumped to approximately $6.10/lb ($13,380/ton nearly) on April 14, recovering from Monday’s slump.

The market is currently in a buy-on-dips mode, supported by an RSI which is placed below the 70 line, indicating strong bullish momentum, the Religare analyst said, adding that the long term scenario remains positive on the whole.

Copper trading strategy

MCX prices on the weekly chart are placed comfortably above the key moving averages thus enhancing the bullish prospects. Wait for a short corrective phase towards the region of 1,270-1,275 to buy the April derivative and aim for the target objective of Rs 1,320-1,330 placing stop loss below Rs 1,245.
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