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Defence, financials, discretionary in structural sweet spot: SAMCO MF’s Viraj Gandhi

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Defence, financials, discretionary in structural sweet spot: SAMCO MF's Viraj Gandhi
Despite elevated headline valuations, select sectors continue to offer compelling structural growth visibility. Viraj Gandhi, CEO of SAMCO Mutual Fund, believes defence, financials and pockets of consumer discretionary are positioned to benefit from policy support, balance sheet strength and evolving demand dynamics. He advocates a momentum-led, risk-calibrated approach in navigating the current market cycle.

Edited excerpts from a chat:

What is your assessment of the current market cycle, and where do you believe we stand in terms of valuations versus earnings visibility?

The Indian markets continue to appear expensive on a headline basis as they are trading above their median valuations. However, there are pockets of opportunities across sectors and market caps that could benefit from strong domestic demand and policy support. Earnings visibility has been improving for sectors such as financials, industrial products, auto, and select consumer categories, while pockets like defense, and infrastructure continue to offer long-term growth potential. External factors such as global trade tensions, tariff concerns and India being viewed as an Anti AI trade has weighed on the sentiment of the market. India’s pursuit of signing free trade agreements (FTAs) with different countries like the EU and New Zealand is creating new avenues for trade, investment, and market diversification, which could support earnings growth over the medium term. We believe that the market is currently in a phase where broad valuations may appear rich, but earnings visibility is improving, and pockets of opportunities continue to exist for investors who focus on quality, growth potential, and sectors positioned to benefit from both domestic and global trends.

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What stood out for you in the Q3 earnings season? Are you more hopeful of broad-based growth than before?

What stood out this Q3 earnings season was the divergence between underlying operating performance and the direction of earnings revisions. Corporate Earnings this quarter were broadly in line with expectations. Several consumption-linked and cyclical sector companies witnessed a growth in top-line with operating margins broadly stabilized or expanded and profit growth remained healthy. Banks and NBFCs showed signs of stability in asset quality and profitability metrics and industrial and defence names continued to benefit from execution momentum and policy tailwinds. Earnings downgrades in a couple of sectors were not driven purely by weak quarterly performance but due to a confluence of external factors such as currency volatility, commodity price swings, competitive intensity in certain segments, and global volatility. Management commentary indicated that domestic demand showed early signs of improvement following policy support, with autos and select consumer categories reflecting better business commentary. However, competitive intensity remains elevated in some sectors such as paints, consumer durables and telecom. IT services delivered a steady quarter with management commentary highlighting the concerns around AI related disruptions. Overall, the quarter reinforced a cautiously constructive view operationally, corporate India appears to be on a firmer footing as compared to previous quarters, but forward earnings expectations are still adjusting to a complex mix of macro, regulatory and competitive factors.

Which sectors appear structurally well-positioned over the next three to five years, and why?

Sectors that are beneficiary of secular trends and policy support given by the government appear structurally well positioned over the next three to five years. One prominent theme is defence. There is a multi-year potential for businesses in this sector due to rising government spending on defense equipment modernization, local manufacture, and indigenization. Strategic Partnerships with global players are improving technological access.


Furthermore, companies that are involved in the manufacturing of advanced electronics, aerospace components, and systems integration are well positioned to benefit from these structural tailwinds.
Pockets of consumer discretionary is another structurally attractive sector, reflecting changing preferences of the consumers as per capita income improves, urbanization and digital adoption encourages consumers to spend more on upgrading and preimmunizing their lifestyles.Banks and NBFCs are improving on asset quality, healthy credit growth, and increasing penetration across retail and corporate segments. The combination of robust balance sheets, policy support, and innovation in digital lending and payments provides a structural tailwind for earnings.

What is your outlook on financials, particularly in the context of credit growth, asset quality and margin sustainability?

The outlook on the financial sector remains constructive given improvement of credit growth and stable operating conditions. There are early signs that corporate lending is picking up which is expected to continue. Deposit growth continues to remain a challenge, and a higher reliance on bulk deposits could keep the cost of funds slightly elevated. Banks should be able to maintain their stable margins given the repricing of MCLR linked loans. Increased collection effectiveness and stress level mitigation, especially in unsecured portfolios, ensure that asset quality and credit costs continue to be controlled. Management commentary suggests that the second half of the year should be better, as growth is expected in both lending and controlled credit costs, which will improve their profitability. This creates a favorable backdrop for banks, balancing growth opportunities with prudent risk management.

How should investors approach the IT and digital ecosystem amid AI-led disruption and shifting global tech spending?

Investors should adopt a wait and watch approach in this space. AI is changing business models of traditional IT companies. The pace of AI-driven change is unprecedented in nature. Global hyperscalers are committing capex more than $600 billion towards AI related infrastructure, including data centers. As a result of these developments within the field of AI, companies are now investing more in automation and artificial intelligence as compared to traditional IT services. Companies who successfully implement AI stand to benefit from these changes, while others could lag, thereby impacting their revenue and profit margins. For Indian IT, the structural shift presents a dual challenge. Traditional service models face pressure as automation and generative AI reduce demand for conventional software maintenance. At the same time, India’s deep talent base and growing digital capabilities provide opportunities to support global clients in AI adoption.

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How are you currently positioning portfolios in terms of sector allocation, cash levels and market-cap bias?

We use momentum as a factor across our funds and allocate capital to sectors and companies based on relative price strength, growth in revenue, and accelerating earnings, while using absolute momentum to manage risk and protect capital. From a market-cap bias, positioning depends on the mandate of the scheme. In categories such as Flexicap, ELSS and Special Opportunities where the fund managers have flexibility to allocate across market caps, we have a slight bias towards mid and small caps. Sector-wise, we are positioned in BFSI, Autos, Pharma and Industrial Products where we believe the balance between growth prospects and risk is favourable. These sectors offer a mix of cyclical recovery, structural tailwinds and improving profitability dynamics. On the risk management side, we actively use hedging to reduce downside risk particularly during phases where markets remain sideways or uncertain. In addition, we maintain cash in certain portfolios where near-term risk-reward warrant a more cautious stance. Overall, our approach seeks to participate in momentum-led opportunities while maintaining flexibility and prudent risk control.

Do you think that the sell-off in smallcaps we saw in last 1.5 years is done and that we will see gradual recovery in next 2 quarters?

Given the results in Q3FY26, there are encouraging signs that the extended weakness in small-caps could be stabilizing. Across a broad set of companies, revenue and profitability growth is accelerating, with smaller companies showing stronger momentum. Earnings downgrades appear to be moderating, and we expect upgrades to gradually emerge as macro conditions stabilize and companies benefit from policy tailwinds. Supportive monetary conditions due to the rate cuts done by the Reserve Bank of India should improve corporate earnings and investor sentiment. While valuations are above median levels at the broader index level, there continue to be selective pockets within this space with solid fundamentals and clear growth drivers. The combination of the above-mentioned factors suggests that small-caps could see a gradual recovery in the coming quarters.

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Edible Economics by Ha-Joon Chang (Omnibus)

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Edible Economics by Ha-Joon Chang (Omnibus)

Available for 29 days

Professor Ha-Joon Chang is inspired by his passion for food to reflect on why economics matters – or, as he puts it, “a hungry economist explains the world”.

Omnibus of five episodes, where he zooms in on familiar foods:

* Garlic
* Bananas
* Okra
* Rye
* Chocolate

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He uses the histories behind each – where they come from, how they’re cooked and consumed and what they mean to different cultures – to explore economic theories.

Witty and thought-provoking, Professor Chang sets out to challenge ideas about the free-market economy which he believes have been too easily accepted for decades.

Read by Arthur Lee.

*** Professor Ha-Joon Chang teaches economics at SOAS University of London, and is one of the world’s leading economists. His books include Economics: The User’s Guide, Bad Samaritans and 23 Things They Don’t Tell You About Capitalism.

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*** Reader Arthur Lee is a British actor of Korean descent who made his international debut on HBO Cinemax’s Strike Back in 2015 and who recently appeared in Doctor Who. Arthur grew up mostly in London, but also spent several years in South Korea advancing his knowledge of Korean language and culture.

Abridged and produced by Elizabeth Burke

Executive Producer: Jo Rowntree

A Loftus Media production for BBC Radio 4, first broadcast in September 2022.

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Hackers hit Iranian apps, websites after US-Israeli strikes

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Hackers hit Iranian apps, websites after US-Israeli strikes


Hackers hit Iranian apps, websites after US-Israeli strikes

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Investors Brace for Oil Futures to Spike, Stocks to React

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Investors Brace for Oil Futures to Spike, Stocks to React

Investors Brace for Oil Futures to Spike, Stocks to React

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Trump says 48 leaders killed in strikes on Iran, Fox News interview

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Trump says 48 leaders killed in strikes on Iran, Fox News interview


Trump says 48 leaders killed in strikes on Iran, Fox News interview

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US military says three of its service members killed in Iran operation

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US military says three of its service members killed in Iran operation


US military says three of its service members killed in Iran operation

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Trump says Iran military operations are ’ahead of schedule,’ CNBC reports

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Trump says Iran military operations are ’ahead of schedule,’ CNBC reports


Trump says Iran military operations are ’ahead of schedule,’ CNBC reports

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T3 Defense Inc. appoints Menachem Shalom CEO under new consulting agreement

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T3 Defense Inc. appoints Menachem Shalom CEO under new consulting agreement

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Iranian Missile Strikes Damage Dubai’s Iconic Hotels

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A picture taken on January 24, 2022 shows Abu Dhabi, capital of the UAE which has come again under attack by Yemen's Huthi rebels

Iranian ballistic missiles and drones struck several high-profile sites in Dubai on February 28, 2026, damaging the landmark Burj Al Arab hotel, the Fairmont The Palm hotel on Palm Jumeirah, Dubai International Airport and other locations, as Tehran unleashed widespread retaliation following joint U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Iran.

Dubai Hotel Attacked: Iranian Missile Strikes Damage Dubai's Iconic Hotels
Dubai Hotel Attacked: Iranian Missile Strikes Damage Dubai’s Iconic Hotels

The attacks marked an unprecedented escalation, spreading the conflict beyond military targets to civilian and economic hubs in the United Arab Emirates, one of the Gulf’s most stable and tourism-dependent economies. UAE authorities confirmed minor structural damage at Dubai International Airport (DXB), the world’s busiest for international passengers, with four people injured in a concourse incident quickly contained. A drone interception caused debris to spark a minor fire on the Burj Al Arab’s outer facade, the sail-shaped ultra-luxury hotel often called the world’s only “seven-star” property.

Social media videos verified by CNN, Reuters and other outlets showed thick black smoke rising from the Fairmont The Palm on the man-made Palm Jumeirah island after a missile or drone struck nearby, with explosions rattling the luxury resort area. Residents reported panic as flares lit the night sky and fires broke out near hotel entrances. Dubai’s media office confirmed a fire in the Palm Jumeirah zone injured four people, while Jebel Ali seaport also sustained damage.

The UAE Ministry of Defense stated Iran fired 137 missiles and 209 drones at the country, most intercepted by air defenses with high efficiency. Falling debris from interceptions caused the reported incidents, including the Burj Al Arab fire and airport damage. No fatalities were confirmed at the Dubai sites, though one person died earlier in Abu Dhabi from debris.

The strikes extended to other Gulf states hosting U.S. assets: Bahrain reported hits near the U.S. Fifth Fleet headquarters in Manama, Qatar intercepted projectiles over Doha, and explosions were heard in Kuwait and near Riyadh in Saudi Arabia. Jordan also faced incoming threats.

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Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed the attacks targeted U.S. military installations across the region in response to “Operation Epic Fury,” the U.S.-Israeli campaign that began early February 28 with massive airstrikes on Iranian leadership compounds, IRGC bases and nuclear sites. President Donald Trump announced the operation, claiming Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed — a claim Iranian state media denied, insisting he remained “commanding the field.”

Tehran condemned the initial U.S.-Israeli aggression as a “barbaric violation” of sovereignty and vowed continued retaliation. The IRGC described the Gulf strikes as proportionate responses to attacks on Iranian soil.

Dubai authorities suspended all flights at Dubai International and Al Maktoum airports until further notice, urging travelers to avoid the emirate. Major carriers including Emirates, flydubai, British Airways and IndiGo canceled or diverted Middle East routes. Jebel Ali seaport, one of the world’s busiest, reported operational disruptions.

Oil prices surged more than 15% on fears of prolonged conflict disrupting flows through the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of global seaborne crude passes. Global equities opened lower, while safe-haven assets like gold rallied.

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The UAE’s foreign ministry condemned the attacks as “cowardly” and a “dangerous escalation,” reserving the right to respond. Saudi Arabia echoed the condemnation, denouncing violations against multiple Gulf nations and calling for international action.

The UAE-Saudi leadership held urgent talks, with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman expressing solidarity and offering support. Both urged restraint and diplomatic solutions to avert wider war.

Humanitarian concerns rose as strikes hit civilian-adjacent areas. Amnesty International called for protections, while the International Committee of the Red Cross prepared for potential casualties. Thousands of tourists and expatriates in Dubai sheltered in place amid air raid alerts and explosions.

The attacks underscore the conflict’s rapid regional spread, drawing in Gulf monarchies despite their efforts to remain neutral in U.S.-Iran tensions. Dubai’s role as a global financial and tourism hub makes it a high-value target, with damage to icons like Burj Al Arab and the airport threatening economic fallout.

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As sirens persisted and defenses remained active, the UAE emphasized stability and coordination with allies. The coming days will test whether diplomacy can contain the crisis or if further retaliation deepens the chaos.

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10 Milestones He Says Will Happen by 2030

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iPhone 18 Pro Max

Elon Musk, the billionaire CEO of Tesla, SpaceX, xAI and Neuralink, has made a series of ambitious forecasts about technology, society and humanity’s future, many targeting the end of this decade. In recent interviews, Davos panels and X posts through early 2026, Musk has outlined visions of artificial superintelligence, widespread robotics, extended human lifespans and economic abundance driven by AI and automation. While critics often note his timelines frequently slip, his predictions continue to shape discussions on the pace of innovation. Here are 10 key things Musk has predicted will be achieved or surpassed by 2030.

Tesla chief Elon Musk had planned the robotaxi launch for June 12, 2025, but pushed it back to ensure safety
AFP

1. AI Surpasses Combined Human Intelligence
Musk has repeatedly stated he is “confident” that by 2030 — or as early as 2029-2031 — artificial intelligence will exceed the collective intelligence of all humans on Earth. Speaking at Davos in January 2026, he said AI could become smarter than any single human by the end of 2026 or 2027, with superintelligence following shortly after. He views this as inevitable given exponential progress in models like those from xAI and others.

2. Billions of Humanoid Robots Transform Labor
Musk predicts billions of humanoid robots — primarily Tesla’s Optimus — will exist by 2030 or shortly after, saturating human needs and making work largely optional. He has said robots could outnumber people in beneficial scenarios, handling physical tasks from manufacturing to household chores. In 2026 remarks, he tied this to economic abundance where money becomes less relevant.

3. Robot Surgeons Outnumber Human Doctors
By 2030, Musk forecasts more Optimus robots performing high-quality surgery than all human surgeons combined. He argues robots will eliminate human error, provide consistent precision and make world-class care universally accessible, solving doctor shortages and time constraints.

4. Human Lifespans Extend Dramatically — Possibly Toward Immortality
Musk has aligned with views that AI-driven medicine will double lifespans or more by the early 2030s, potentially leading to effective immortality through biological fixes. He has echoed predictions that aging’s “biological clock” becomes solvable, enabling humans to live far longer than today.

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5. Work Becomes Optional, Money Less Relevant
In 10-20 years (placing significant change by 2030-2040), Musk predicts work will be like a hobby — optional, akin to playing sports or video games. With AI and robotics producing goods and services faster than money supply grows, he says retirement savings will matter less as abundance eliminates scarcity.

6. Unsupervised Full Self-Driving and Robotaxi Networks Widespread
Musk has claimed Tesla will achieve unsupervised Full Self-Driving (true autonomy without human intervention) and deploy widespread robotaxi fleets across the U.S. by the end of 2026, with massive scale-up through 2030. He envisions millions of autonomous Cybercabs and owner vehicles earning income as robotaxis.

7. Neuralink Implants in Over 1 Million People
Musk predicts Neuralink will augment more than 1 million humans by 2030, with combined input/output bit rates exceeding 1 megabit per second. He has said brain implants could replace smartphones, allowing thought-based messaging, device control and streaming by the end of the decade.

8. Starship Cargo Missions to Mars Begin
SpaceX plans uncrewed Starship cargo flights to Mars starting in 2030 for research, development and exploration, at costs around $100 million per metric ton. Musk has outlined scaling to support eventual human missions, though crewed landings are targeted later (possibly 2029-2031, with 2030s as a key buildup phase).

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9. Global Economy Experiences Unprecedented Abundance
Musk envisions an “explosion in the global economy beyond all precedent” by 2030 through ubiquitous cheap AI and robotics. He argues this will create a post-scarcity environment where goods, services and energy (via solar) become nearly free, rendering traditional economic worries obsolete.

10. Humanity Takes Major Steps Toward Multiplanetary Life
While full Mars colonization is longer-term, Musk sees 2030 as pivotal for infrastructure: frequent Starship launches, lunar base progress (prioritized before Mars), and cargo missions laying groundwork for self-sustaining cities. He has shifted some focus to the Moon but maintains Mars as the ultimate goal for species survival.

Musk’s timelines often face skepticism due to past delays (e.g., full self-driving, Optimus production). Yet his 2026 statements — from Davos to podcasts — consistently paint 2030 as a transformative horizon where AI, robotics and space travel converge to redefine human existence. Whether these predictions hold remains one of technology’s biggest open questions.

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Gulf businesses reel as Iran strikes trigger regional shutdowns

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Gulf businesses reel as Iran strikes trigger regional shutdowns


Gulf businesses reel as Iran strikes trigger regional shutdowns

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