Does Steph Curry Have Any Shot at an NBA Title in 2027? Oddsmakers and Analysts Say the Odds Are Long

SAN FRANCISCO — As the Golden State Warriors prepare for the 2026-27 NBA season, oddsmakers and analysts are largely skeptical that Stephen Curry has a realistic path to another championship, even as the 12-time All-Star continues to play at a high level well into his late 30s.

Sportsbooks have priced the Warriors as significant long shots to win the title. Caesars lists Golden State’s championship odds at plus-5000, implying roughly a 1.96% probability, while BetRivers has the team at plus-6000, or about a 1.64% implied chance. Curry’s individual MVP odds sit even longer, at plus-10000, or under 1%, according to Caesars.

Curry, now 38 and set to turn 39 during the season, continued producing strong individual numbers in 2025-26, averaging 26.6 points, 3.6 rebounds, 4.7 assists, 1.1 steals and 0.4 blocks per game. But the roster around him has been shaped heavily by injuries and age. Jimmy Butler III tore his ACL in January 2026, and Moses Moody has also been sidelined, leaving the Warriors, according to multiple analysts, likely relegated to Play-In Tournament territory rather than genuine title contention if those absences persist into the new season.

Golden State’s roster otherwise remained largely intact heading into the year, retaining Draymond Green, Kristaps Porzingis and Al Horford, with 24-year-old rookie Yaxel Lendeborg, the 11th overall pick and a member of Michigan’s 2026 NCAA championship team, as the primary new addition. That continuity has come with a notable cost: the Warriors have become the oldest team in the league, and some statistical indicators point to specific decline among their veteran core. According to analysis cited by NewsBeep, Golden State’s defense was statistically better with Green off the floor last season, only the second time that has occurred in his career, with Green allowing the highest shot quality as a closest defender of his career, raising questions about whether the decline reflects age, a one-year anomaly, or some other factor.

Former NBA player Stephen Jackson offered a blunt assessment of the Warriors’ prospects during an appearance on his “All the Smoke” podcast. Asked directly whether this version of the Warriors has a real shot at winning the title, Jackson did not hesitate. “Nah, I don’t,” Jackson said, according to DraftKings. “That’s asking a lot from Steph right now.”

Curry himself has acknowledged how significantly the season’s outlook shifted once Butler and Moody went down with injuries. Speaking with NBA insider Nick Friedell of The Athletic, Curry addressed the change directly. “When Jimmy got hurt, and Moses got hurt, the whole calculus of everything changes,” Curry said, a comment that has been interpreted as reflecting the team’s more measured, patient approach to this stretch of its rebuild around Curry.

Not every assessment of the Warriors has been entirely dismissive. ClutchPoints’ season preview noted that the team’s fortunes still come down heavily to health, both for Curry, Green, Porzingis and Horford, and for Butler and Moody’s eventual returns to the court. The outlet noted that people within the Warriors organization believe the current roster has depth and skill comparable to the 2021-22 championship team, which similarly defied expectations en route to beating the Boston Celtics in the NBA Finals that year. That same preview acknowledged the unpredictability inherent in any Curry-led team, writing that “anything can really happen with the Warriors this season,” including the possibility that the front office tears down the roster around Curry and pursues a more significant rebuild at the trade deadline instead.

CBS Sports’ broader championship prediction market analysis placed the Warriors outside the tier of teams considered most likely to win the 2026-27 title, a group led by the Oklahoma City Thunder, New York Knicks and Boston Celtics, with the Denver Nuggets, Toronto Raptors and Los Angeles Lakers cited as having a “puncher’s chance” based on recent championship history. Even so, the same analysis explicitly acknowledged Golden State as a team capable of producing a surprise run, noting “there’s always the possibility for some Stephen Curry magic,” a framing that positions the Warriors as a longer-shot wildcard rather than a leading contender.

Speculation about a potential trade sending Curry elsewhere, including to the Boston Celtics or Orlando Magic, has also circulated periodically, though people close to the situation have downplayed the likelihood of such a move. That speculation has further quieted following Curry’s recent decision to sign a two-year, $116 million contract extension with the Warriors, a deal that includes a player option for the 2028-29 season and keeps him tied to the only franchise he has played for through what would become his 21st NBA season, signaling his own continued commitment to finishing his career in Golden State regardless of the team’s shorter-term title prospects.

With the season still ahead and Butler and Moody’s health remaining the most significant variables shaping the Warriors’ outlook, most oddsmakers and analysts continue to view Golden State as an unlikely championship contender for 2026-27, even as few are willing to rule out entirely the possibility that Curry, at this stage of his career, still has one more deep playoff run left in him if the roster around him can stay healthy at the right moment.