Economic, Geopolitical, and Technological Pressures

Southeast Asia faces a complex web of interconnected risks, from economic downturns and job scarcity to geopolitical rivalries and the disruptive force of AI. The region’s diverse economies, from wealthy Singapore to poorer Myanmar, experience these challenges unevenly, forcing nations to balance immediate stability with long-term strategic autonomy.

Key Details

• Economic growth is uneven: While Singapore thrives, countries like Myanmar, Laos, and Brunei struggle with debt, inflation, and joblessness; even wealthy Singapore faces cost-of-living pressures.
• Geopolitical tensions are acute: ASEAN nations, heavily reliant on China for trade, are squeezed by U.S. tariffs (e.g., 46% on Vietnamese exports) and legal uncertainty after the 2026 U.S. Supreme Court ruling, forcing ad-hoc bilateral deals.
• AI adoption is accelerating but unequal: Major investments in Indonesia, Malaysia, and Vietnam contrast with low SME adoption (15% in Singapore); energy-intensive data centers risk massive emissions spikes (e.g., 7x in Malaysia by 2030).
• Risks reinforce each other: Trade shocks fuel inflation and unemployment; AI gains may widen inequality; supply chain shifts expose cybersecurity gaps; domestic politics limit fiscal flexibility.

While AI adoption promises growth, uneven implementation, energy constraints, and workforce displacement could exacerbate inequalities. Governments and businesses must adopt integrated, adaptive strategies, acknowledging that economic, geopolitical, and technological pressures are converging, demanding a coordinated, forward-looking response to navigate this volatile landscape.

There is growth but it’s not reaching everyone

Economic growth is a case in point. In the survey, the top three perceived risks in the region are economic downturn, lack of jobs or economic opportunity and inflation, reflecting a shared anxiety about how individuals will experience growth. The signs of stress are already visible.

In Thailand, growth forecasts have been revised downward due to trade uncertainty and high household debt. Meanwhile, Brunei is still trying to reduce its reliance on oil and gas, and Lao PDR faces serious debt pressures that limit room to manoeuvre.

Meanwhile, ageing demographics in Malaysia and Viet Nam are outpacing economic development, a challenge requiring different investments in productivity and skills.

AI Surge in the Region Sparks Opportunities Amid Growing Divides

Southeast Asian executives rank the risks from artificial intelligence (AI) adversely at fourth regionally, compared to 10th globally. There is also relatively higher concern about online harms and the risks posed by frontier technologies more broadly.

AI-driven growth initiatives are gaining momentum across the region. For instance, Microsoft has unveiled significant cloud and AI investment programs in Indonesia and Malaysia.

Qualcomm has launched an AI research and development center in Viet Nam. Meanwhile, Singapore’s Green Data Centre Roadmap positions computing capacity as a strategic national infrastructure, akin to how previous generations prioritized highways and ports.

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