Conference Call Participants

John Pancari – Evercore ISI Institutional Equities, Research Division
David Smith – Truist Securities, Inc., Research Division
Manan Gosalia – Morgan Stanley, Research Division
Bernard Von Gizycki – Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division
Benjamin Gerlinger – Citigroup Inc., Research Division
David Chiaverini – Jefferies LLC, Research Division
Christopher McGratty – Keefe, Bruyette, & Woods, Inc., Research Division
Kenneth Usdin – Bernstein Autonomous LLP
Peter Winter – D.A. Davidson & Co., Research Division
David Rochester – Cantor Fitzgerald & Co., Research Division
Anthony Elian – JPMorgan Chase & Co, Research Division
Sun Young Lee – TD Cowen, Research Division
Christopher Spahr – Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division
Jon Arfstrom – RBC Capital Markets, Research Division

Presentation

The Los Angeles Lakers’ pursuit of free agent forward Jonathan Kuminga remains unresolved as the offseason progresses, with multiple NBA insiders reporting that the negotiations may be increasingly linked to LeBron James’ still-pending free agency decision, according to a series of recent reports tracking the situation.

Kuminga, a 23-year-old forward and the No. 7 overall pick in the 2021 NBA draft, became an unrestricted free agent after the Atlanta Hawks declined his team option for the 2026-27 season. Since then, the Lakers have emerged as one of the primary teams interested in acquiring him, though talks have proceeded in fits and starts amid ongoing questions about asking price, trade structure and the broader landscape of this year’s free agency period.

A deal complicated by asking price and trade mechanics

According to reporting from The Stein Line’s Jake Fischer, the Hawks have expressed interest in a sign-and-trade arrangement that would send Kuminga to the Lakers in exchange for forward Jared Vanderbilt and a 2032 first-round pick swap, given that a swap remains the only mechanism through which the Lakers can currently move a first-round selection following their earlier trade for center Walker Kessler.

Despite that framework, negotiations have not moved smoothly. Fischer has also reported that the Lakers are not currently willing to meet the Hawks’ full asking price for Kuminga, while Atlanta has shown little interest in taking on Vanderbilt as part of any potential deal. Bleacher Report’s Kristopher Knox went further, suggesting the Lakers may need to abandon the pursuit entirely. “Unfortunately, while Kuminga would address Los Angeles’ need for wing depth, it appears he’s out of the Lakers’ price range—sign-and-trade or no,” Knox wrote in a story published earlier this month.

LeBron’s looming decision adds another layer of uncertainty

Compounding the situation, several reports have suggested that Kuminga’s own decision-making may be tied to how LeBron James’ free agency ultimately resolves. James, who has been deliberating for weeks among a group of finalist teams that reportedly includes the Cleveland Cavaliers, Miami Heat, Golden State Warriors, Philadelphia 76ers and Minnesota Timberwolves, has effectively put much of the league’s remaining offseason activity on hold while he finalizes his choice.

According to a source cited by Yardbarker, Kuminga is likely waiting to see what James decides before making his own move, a dynamic that could also affect the Cavaliers’ willingness to continue pursuing him until James’ situation is resolved. Fischer, speaking during a recent livestream alongside fellow NBA insider Marc Stein, indicated that the Lakers’ pursuit of Kuminga may be losing momentum the longer a deal remains unresolved. “The Lakers continue to be connected to Jonathan Kuminga. The longer they don’t come to an agreement on a deal, the more it seems like the iron is losing its hotness,” Fischer said. “People are now actually wondering what other potential options the Lakers can look at.”

Fischer added that while the Lakers still view Kuminga as a potential starting wing, the situation could shift if talks continue to stall. “They’re clearly still looking at Jonathan Kuminga as being their starting wing,” Fischer said. “But if that deal doesn’t come to fruition, Kuminga has several options, including going home to Atlanta.”

The Lakers pursue depth elsewhere while talks continue

Even as the Kuminga talks remain unresolved, the Lakers have continued making other moves to reinforce their roster. According to Marc Stein, the organization has prioritized adding quality depth and defensive reinforcements this offseason alongside its pursuit of Kuminga, recently signing veteran wing Ziaire Williams and reportedly expressing interest in free agent Matisse Thybulle.

ESPN’s Shams Charania reported that the Williams signing has not affected the Lakers’ continued interest in Kuminga, suggesting the team still views adding the young forward as a priority even as it explores complementary depth pieces. Insiders have offered mixed assessments of how close the two sides actually are to finalizing an agreement, with Lakers insider Jovan Buha indicating that clarity on Kuminga’s ultimate decision should arrive soon, though that timeline remains contingent on how other interested teams navigate their own free agency situations in the aftermath of James’ looming choice.

Kuminga’s recent NBA journey

Kuminga spent the bulk of his NBA career with the Golden State Warriors before being included in a trade to the Atlanta Hawks, where his role diminished further following the earlier arrival of Jimmy Butler in Golden State, which had already reduced his playing time significantly during his final stretch with the Warriors. Despite that decreased role, Kuminga has continued to draw interest around the league as a physically gifted forward with notable defensive upside and rebounding ability, qualities that have made him an appealing target for teams like the Lakers looking to address specific roster needs.

With James’ free agency decision reportedly expected within days, momentum around Kuminga’s situation and several other unresolved free agency storylines is likely to shift quickly once his choice becomes official. Until then, the Lakers’ front office appears to be simultaneously pursuing Kuminga while also exploring alternative options to bolster their wing depth, reflecting the broader uncertainty that has defined this year’s unusually James-dependent NBA offseason. Whether Kuminga ultimately lands with the Lakers, returns to Atlanta, or signs elsewhere may hinge as much on developments outside his own control as on the specific terms the Lakers and Hawks can eventually agree upon.

New York Knicks star Jalen Brunson said this week that he has made no effort to recruit LeBron James to join the franchise this offseason, distancing himself from speculation about the team’s potential pursuit of the four-time NBA champion as James continues weighing his free agency options.

Asked directly whether he had tried to bring James to New York, Brunson made clear he intends to stay in his own lane. “My job is to put the ball in the hoop. Try and play a little defense,” Brunson said, according to NightcapShow, in comments shared by NBA Courtside and Fullcourtpass. “There’s people who are above me who determine who’s on the team and who’s not. I’ll leave the pitching to them.”

A team not seriously considered a frontrunner

Brunson’s comments come as the Knicks have generally not been viewed as serious frontrunners in James’ free agency search this offseason, despite James having reportedly expressed interest in joining New York at various points in the past. That earlier interest appeared to cool somewhat following the Knicks’ recent championship run, with the added expectations and pressure that come with title-winning success seemingly complicating any potential pursuit of James by the organization.

Throughout the more active stages of James’ free agency process, teams including the Minnesota Timberwolves, Golden State Warriors, Miami Heat, Cleveland Cavaliers and Philadelphia 76ers have consistently been named as more likely landing spots, with the Knicks largely absent from that core group of finalists as James’ decision has continued to play out.

James’ own comments on the Knicks’ style of play

Despite the Knicks’ relatively distant positioning in the sweepstakes, James has spoken publicly and in detail about what makes New York’s roster and system work, according to comments shared by the New York Basketball social media account. James praised the Knicks for their diversified offensive approach, highlighting a heavy dose of pick-and-roll actions run through Brunson alongside contributions from coach Mike Brown’s use of a pinch-post role for center Karl-Anthony Towns, a combination James suggested prevented opponents from settling into a single defensive scheme.

James also pointed to the Knicks’ historically strong point differential during their recent playoff run as a notable indicator of the team’s overall quality, alongside praise for supporting players such as Josh Hart and Mikal Bridges, whom he described as important glue pieces, along with additional recognition for another player’s contributions throughout the team’s championship push.

Rich Paul’s earlier comments on James’ consideration of New York

Earlier reporting had also suggested that James’ longtime agent, Rich Paul, acknowledged internally that the Knicks had at least been part of broader free agency conversations. According to comments attributed to Paul and shared by the New York Basketball account, Paul suggested that the Knicks’ presence on James’ radar was closely tied to the team’s championship success this year, indicating that without that title, New York likely would not have been under serious consideration at all. Paul reportedly noted that any real path toward James joining the Knicks would require Brunson himself to personally signal that he had no issue with the arrangement, underscoring just how central Brunson’s own posture toward the situation could be to any realistic scenario involving James and New York.

Why the Knicks may not need James anyway

Beyond the specific question of recruitment, there are broader structural reasons the Knicks have not aggressively pursued James this offseason. The team enters the new season with a largely complete and successful roster, having already retained forward Landry Shamet and added center Andre Drummond as a backup option behind Towns, replacing Mitchell Robinson in that depth role. Given the chemistry and continuity that has fueled New York’s recent success, some analysts have suggested that adding a player of James’ stature and accompanying expectations at this stage could risk disrupting the roster balance that has made the Knicks so effective.

While few around the league would dispute that James remains capable of elevating any team he joins, and his star power and marketability would likely pair well with New York’s media market, the Knicks appear to have concluded that their current roster construction does not require, or perhaps even benefit from, adding another marquee name to the mix at this particular stage.

Brunson’s growing influence, deployed elsewhere

Brunson’s decision to stay publicly neutral on the James situation stands out given his growing stature within the league as one of its more influential current voices, particularly following New York’s championship run and his continued central role in the team’s offense. Despite that influence, and despite James’ own detailed public praise for the Knicks’ system, Brunson has made clear he does not intend to use his platform to actively lobby for James to join the roster, instead deferring that kind of team-building decision to the front office executives whose job it is to make those calls.

With James expected to announce his free agency decision imminently, and with the Cavaliers, Heat, Warriors, 76ers and Timberwolves remaining the most frequently cited finalists, the Knicks appear likely to watch the outcome unfold from the sidelines rather than as active participants in the final stretch of the pursuit. For now, Brunson’s comments reinforce a broader sense around the organization that New York is comfortable building on the strength of its existing roster and recent success, rather than pinning its hopes on adding one of the league’s most decorated players at this late stage of the offseason.

Oil prices edged lower on Tuesday as traders balanced reports of renewed diplomatic efforts between the U.S. and Iran with fresh military exchanges and Yemen’s Houthis threatening a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia.

Crude oil price on July 21

Brent crude futures slipped 35 cents, or 0.4%, to $88.87 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude for September delivery was little changed at $82.47 a barrel. Both benchmarks remained below the more than one-month highs touched in the previous session.

On Monday, Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis announced plans to impose a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia, potentially opening another front against the U.S. in its conflict with Iran and increasing concerns over disruptions to global energy supplies and trade beyond the Gulf.

At the same time, a senior Iranian official told Reuters that Tehran had received a proposal from mediators for a 10-day ceasefire. The proposal is part of efforts to preserve the interim agreement signed on June 17, which was aimed at creating a pathway to a permanent deal to end the conflict that began on February 28 following U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran.

The diplomatic initiative came after another night of U.S. strikes on Iranian cities and retaliatory attacks by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards on U.S. military assets across the region. Later on Monday, U.S. Central Command said it had launched another round of strikes on Iran.

Also read: Relieved that crude has finally fallen? The real warning signs just began flashing elsewhere

What’s next?

Goldman Sachs said Brent crude could move above $110 a barrel in the fourth quarter if the recovery in Gulf oil exports remains delayed. However, the investment bank expects prices to fall back into the $60s by the end of the year if geopolitical tensions ease and production rebounds faster than expected.
“At the current point there are no signs of a ceasefire again. But in case there is a ceasefire immediately imposed, we don’t expect Brent oil prices to fall beyond $70 per barrel. It is likely to remain the lower support for the near term,” Pranav Mer, Senior Vice President, Currency and Commodity at JM Financial, told ETMarkets.
According to Anindya Banerjee, Head of Commodity Research at Kotak Securities, crude oil has once again begun pricing in geopolitical risks. “Any strike on major Gulf export infrastructure could force a retest of $95-100 and beyond,” he said.
Banerjee added that markets are reacting less to the military action itself and more to the diminishing chances of diplomacy. He said Tehran has laid down fresh conditions for resuming negotiations, with each new development pushing back the return of normal tanker movement through the Strait of Hormuz, where traffic has already remained well below pre-war levels.

Also read:Oil is crude once again! Is $95 the new normal and what it means for Indian investors?

Nuvama Institutional Equities warned that an extended closure of the Strait of Hormuz could disrupt nearly 20 million barrels a day of crude oil flows. Under such a scenario, the brokerage said oil prices could surge to between $110 and $150 a barrel.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

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Oil prices softened on Tuesday, with markets weighing reports of mediation efforts between the U.S. and Iran against an exchange of fresh attacks between the two and threats of a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia by Yemen’s Houthis.

Brent crude futures eased 35 cents, or 0.4%, to $88.87 per barrel by 0052 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude ‌for September ⁠delivery was ⁠steady at $82.47 a barrel. Both contracts were trading below their highest levels in more than a month hit in the previous session.

Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis said on Monday they would impose a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia, opening a potential new front against the U.S. in its war on Iran and raising the threat to global energy supplies and trade beyond the Gulf.

“The threats of a naval ⁠blockade on ‌Saudi Arabia by the Houthis are significant because they raise the risk of disruption to another major oil exporter,” said Tim Waterer, chief ⁠market analyst at KCM Trade.

Separately, a senior Iranian official told Reuters that Tehran had received a proposal from mediators for a 10-day ceasefire in efforts to salvage an interim deal signed on June 17, intended to pave the way for a lasting agreement to end the war that began on February 28 with U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran.

The diplomatic push followed another night of U.S. strikes on Iranian cities and attacks by Iran’s ‌Revolutionary Guards on U.S. military assets across the region. Later on Monday, U.S. Central Command said it had begun another round of strikes on Iran.
“(Oil) has come a ⁠long way already and it certainly has the potential to go higher again. However, in the short term the overnight talk of de-escalation and peace talks appears to be capping the upside for the time being. Whether anything comes from those peace talks remains to be seen,” IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said in a note. U.S. crude oil stockpiles were expected to have fallen last week alongside gasoline, while distillate stocks likely rose, a preliminary Reuters poll showed on Monday.[EIA/S]