A new report on the U.S. housing sector finds that activity remains subdued through the first part of the year as high costs suppress demand.

The Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University released its annual “State of the Nation’s Housing” report on Wednesday, which found that existing home sales remain near the lowest level in three decades that was first reached in 2023.

Sales of new homes remained relatively unchanged, while rental retention rates rose and new occupancies declined. New construction starts dipped 1% over the last year, driven by a 7% decline in single-family starts.

“Although supply shortages are still a major concern, depressed demand became a headline in housing over the past year,” the report said, noting slower growth in the number of homeowner households as well as the number of renters compared with a year ago. 

MEDIAN US HOME PRICE PROJECTED TO HIT $1 MILLION BY 2050 – RIGHT AS MILLENNIALS RETIRE

The household income needed to afford a home has nearly doubled since 2020, the report noted. (Paul Bersebach/MediaNews Group/Orange County Register via Getty Images)

The rate of growth of homeowner households declined by half and caused homeownership rates to decline for the second straight year. Additionally, the year-over-year increase in the number of renters in the first quarter of 2026 was less than half of what it was a year earlier.

Economic uncertainty has weighed on housing demand, with employment growth slowing from a gain of 1.5 million in 2024 to just 116,000 in 2025.

Consumer confidence dropped by more than 20 percentage points in 2025 and fell further in the first part of 2026 due to the Iran war, reaching an all-time low in April.

MORTGAGE RATES TICK HIGHER, BUT BUYERS SHOW SIGNS OF CONFIDENCE

Demand for homes is depressed by high prices. (Eric Thayer/Bloomberg/Getty Images)

“Without a job, graduates are less likely to form a new household or move to a new region,” the report said. “Without confidence in employment, families are less likely to move or make a big purchase like a house.”

High costs and the lack of affordable housing options are also contributing to the weaker demand, as households are struggling with high home prices and interest rates.

MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN STATES DOMINATE HOUSING REPORT CARDS: SEE HOW YOURS SCORED

High mortgage rates and a scarcity of new supply has pushed the cost of buying a home and making monthly payments harder. (David Paul Morris/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

The report said that the median prices for new and existing homes are both over $400,000 and that existing home prices have risen 54% since 2020 and are about 5-times the median income – a level well above the ratio of 3-times that prevailed in the 1990s.

Mortgage rates are over 6%, which makes the payment on a median-priced home $3,100 in the fourth quarter of 2025, up from $1,700 in early 2020. That has pushed the income needed to afford that payment to more than $120,000 – a significant increase from $66,000 in 2020.

GET FOX BUSINESS ON THE GO BY CLICKING HERE

The Russell 2000, the benchmark index tracking small-capitalization U.S. companies, surged 2.12% on Thursday to close at 2,979.77, up 61.78 points, outpacing every other major U.S. stock index as a wave of positive catalysts lifted markets heading into the three-day Juneteenth holiday weekend.

The small-cap index’s outsized gain reflected a broader rally across Wall Street that was fueled by a surprise semiconductor partnership announcement, easing Middle East tensions following a formal peace agreement, and a sharp reversal of investor anxiety that had built up earlier in the week following a hawkish signal from the Federal Reserve.

A Broad-Based Rally Across U.S. Markets

Thursday’s gains extended across virtually every major U.S. benchmark, though small-cap stocks led the charge by a notable margin. The S&P 500 closed up 1.08% at 7,500.58, while the Nasdaq Composite surged 1.91% to 26,517.93. U.S. equities closed higher Thursday, as tech strength and optimism over the U.S.-Iran deal offset concerns over a hawkish Federal Reserve. The S&P 500 advanced 1% and the Nasdaq 100 gained 1.9%, while the Dow rose by 72 points.

The fact that the Russell 2000 outpaced all three of those larger-cap benchmarks is notable, as small-cap stocks are often viewed by investors as more sensitive to domestic economic conditions and interest rate policy than their larger, more globally diversified counterparts.

Why Small Caps Often Move More on Rate Sentiment

Small-capitalization companies, which make up the Russell 2000 index, tend to carry higher levels of debt relative to their larger peers and rely more heavily on domestic revenue streams, making them particularly sensitive to shifts in Federal Reserve policy and interest rate expectations. That dynamic likely played a meaningful role in Thursday’s outsized gain, as markets recovered from the prior session’s sharp selloff tied to hawkish signals from the central bank.

Equity indexes rose and yields were flat Thursday ahead of the open as investors recovered some of the ground lost after the Federal Reserve, in Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as chair, indicated the possibility of a rate hike this year. The Federal Reserve kept rates steady, with half of officials signaling that at least one rate increase may be warranted this year.

That hawkish dot plot had triggered substantial losses across the market just one day earlier. The Dow Jones Industrial Average had lost more than 500 points Wednesday and the S&P 500 slumped 1.2% as hopes for a more dovish Fed were quickly dashed, with all 11 of its sectors closing in the red. Small-cap stocks, given their typically higher sensitivity to rate expectations, would have likely borne a disproportionate share of that prior session’s selling pressure, setting up a correspondingly larger rebound once sentiment improved.

The Intel-Apple Deal’s Ripple Effect

While the Russell 2000 itself does not include mega-cap technology names like Intel or Apple, the broader market enthusiasm generated by their surprise partnership announcement appeared to lift sentiment across the board, including among smaller companies tied to the domestic manufacturing and technology supply chain. Intel surged 10.6% after President Trump announced that the semiconductor giant would produce chips for Apple in the U.S. The news lifted the broader chip sector, with Nvidia up 2.8% and Micron Technology climbing 8.5%.

That renewed enthusiasm for domestic semiconductor manufacturing carries particular relevance for small-cap investors, given that many smaller industrial and technology companies serve as suppliers within the broader U.S. chip manufacturing ecosystem and stand to benefit from increased onshoring of production capacity.

Easing Geopolitical Tensions Provide Additional Tailwind

Beyond the technology sector catalyst, broader market sentiment also continued to benefit from the formal signing of an interim peace agreement between the United States and Iran, which has helped ease fears of sustained volatility in global energy markets — a factor with direct relevance for smaller, more domestically focused companies that can be particularly sensitive to fluctuating input costs. The interim peace agreement signed by the U.S. and Iran, which includes the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, raised hopes for an end to the conflict and eased concerns about volatile energy prices.

That improved geopolitical backdrop also lifted travel and transportation-related stocks more broadly. Airlines also saw strong gains, with American Airlines rising 3.3%.

Volatility Drops Sharply

The combination of catalysts driving Thursday’s rally appeared to substantially calm investor anxiety that had built up earlier in the week amid the Fed’s hawkish signaling. The CBOE Volatility Index, often referred to as Wall Street’s fear gauge, fell sharply by 11.06% to 16.40, a notable decline that reflected renewed investor confidence heading into the long holiday weekend — a dynamic that often particularly benefits small-cap stocks, which tend to underperform during periods of heightened market volatility and outperform when investor risk appetite improves.

A Narrow Large-Cap Rally Contrasts With Broader Small-Cap Participation

Interestingly, Thursday’s session showed a notably different breadth pattern between large-cap and small-cap stocks. While analysts noted that gains among blue-chip and mega-cap technology names were relatively concentrated, the Russell 2000’s strong showing suggests broader participation across smaller companies. The primary narrative driving the market on Thursday was the resilience of industrial manufacturing and AI-driven hardware, which managed to offset broader weakness in enterprise software and consumer retail. While the index reached new heights, the narrow breadth of the rally suggested selective investor sentiment as the market digested new economic data.

That contrast — narrow strength among mega-cap names alongside a broader, more decisive rally in the small-cap Russell 2000 — suggests Thursday’s session reflected a genuine, broad-based improvement in risk appetite among investors rather than enthusiasm confined to a handful of high-profile technology stocks.

International Markets Offer a Mixed Picture

The positive sentiment driving U.S. markets Thursday extended to several major international exchanges, though not universally. Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbed 1.65%, Germany’s DAX rose 0.37%, and France’s CAC 40 gained 0.44%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index declined 1.59%, and London’s FTSE 100 fell 1.04%.

That divergence suggests the specific catalysts driving Thursday’s U.S. rally — the Intel-Apple announcement and the formalized Iran peace deal — carried outsized relevance for American markets and domestically focused companies in particular, a dynamic consistent with the Russell 2000’s standout performance among major indexes.

Markets Now Closed for Juneteenth

With Thursday’s strong session now complete, U.S. markets will remain closed for the remainder of the week in observance of a federal holiday. The New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq will be closed for trading on June 19, 2026, in observance of the federal holiday of Juneteenth. Both major stock exchanges first closed for the holiday in 2022, after Juneteenth was designated as a federal holiday in 2021.

The stock and bond markets will reopen Monday, June 22, and it will be business as usual on Wall Street for a few days, with the next scheduled market closure coming Friday, July 3, in observance of Independence Day.

Heading into the long holiday weekend, the Russell 2000’s standout performance leaves small-cap investors with reason for cautious optimism as markets prepare to resume trading Monday. Given that smaller companies often respond more sharply to shifts in interest rate expectations than their large-cap counterparts, the index’s trajectory in the coming weeks may serve as a useful barometer for how investors are ultimately interpreting the Federal Reserve’s hawkish signals — whether Thursday’s rally reflected a durable improvement in sentiment toward the prospects for smaller, domestically focused businesses, or a more temporary relief rally tied to a specific set of favorable headlines that could fade once markets reopen and digest the week’s full slate of developments.

The stock has emerged as one of the standout performers in the defence space this year, surging a staggering 120% over the last six months and delivering multibagger returns to investors. On Friday, trading activity remained exceptionally strong. Exchange data showed that 68.39 lakh shares changed hands during the session, translating into turnover of nearly Rs 940 crore.

Paras Defence share price rally trigger

The latest rally comes on the back of a strong push in India’s defence manufacturing ecosystem. Earlier this year, the Ministry of Defence announced that indigenous defence production climbed to Rs 1.78 lakh crore in FY26, representing a 15.6% increase from Rs 1.54 lakh crore in the previous financial year. The achievement is even more striking when viewed over a longer period, with production more than doubling from Rs 84,643 crore in FY21, marking growth of 110%.
Also read: Rs 40,000 crore gone in minutes! Why Infosys shares crashed 9% to hit a new 52-week low

Public sector undertakings continued to account for the bulk of production, contributing nearly 76% of the total. At the same time, the private sector’s share rose to 24%, with production touching Rs 42,000 crore in FY26 compared with 22% in FY25.”The growth in defence production over the years has tremendously contributed to achieving the record defence exports of Rs 38,424 crore in FY 2025-26. The achievement reflects the growing momentum of the Government’s push for self-reliance in defence manufacturing under the Aatmanirbhar Bharat initiative, spearheaded by Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi,” the ministry said in a statement.

Live Events

The ministry also highlighted on X that India is building one of the world’s strongest security architectures, citing the world’s largest border-guarding force, extensive border fencing, the Sudarshan Chakra, stronger counter-terror capabilities, and rapid growth in indigenous defence manufacturing.
Defence Minister Rajnath Singh said India has undergone a historic transformation in its national security framework under Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s leadership.
“From a policy of zero tolerance against terrorism to decisive actions such as Surgical Strikes, Balakot and Operation Sindoor, India has sent a clear message that its sovereignty is non-negotiable,” Singh said in a post on X.
He further said the government’s commitment to Aatmanirbharta in defence has significantly strengthened domestic capabilities, modernised the armed forces, and enhanced preparedness across land, sea, air, cyber, and space domains.

“The journey of the last 12 years reflects a stronger, safer, self-reliant and more confident India, ready to safeguard its national interests and emerge as a leading global power,” he added.

Read more: NSE IPO: BSE hosts double the listed companies but numbers tell a different story

Where is the defence sector headed?

“We have been bullish on the Indian defence sector, as we were clear that our armed forces, consisting of all three services, had to up their spends to be technologically up-to-date,” said Dinshaw Irani, Chief Executive of Helios Capital India.

He noted that the Russia-Ukraine war prompted NATO countries to significantly increase defence spending, further strengthening the long-term outlook for the sector.

“We were further convinced that India, being a friendly and peace-loving country with a low-cost base, will become a sourcing base for defence products. Small beginnings have been made, and the future holds a fair bit of promise,” he said.

The optimism around the defence theme is also reflected in institutional ownership trends. Despite the broader FII selloff, foreign investors have steadily increased their exposure to Paras Defence. FII holdings in the company have risen from 3.46% to 5.06%, even as the stock has delivered a return of 121%.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

The four companies made their much-awaited market debut on Monday, concluding the final leg of Vedanta’s mega demerger, which was one of India’s biggest corporate restructurings in the metals and mining sector.

Vedanta Iron and Steel share price

Vedanta Iron and Steel shares jumped 5% to hit the upper circuit at Rs 25.57 apiece on NSE, with its market capitalisation now nearing Rs 10,000 crore. The shares of the company have surged 28% in just five sessions since listing at Rs 20 apiece.
Notably, the stock has hit the 5% upper circuit for the fifth consecutive session today. PI Opportunities AIF V LLP, an investment arm of Premji Invest, which is owned by Indian billionaire businessman and Wipro Chairman Azim Premji, bought nearly 4.84 crore shares worth Rs 101.68 crore at Rs 21.02 apiece through a bulk deal on Monday, boosting investor sentiment for the smallcap stock.

Also read: Why stock market is falling today?

Vedanta Aluminium Metal shares jumped nearly 3% to trade at Rs 461.04 apiece on NSE. After listing at Rs 522 apiece on Monday, the stock has briefly hit 5% lower circuit in the first four sessions, before paring some losses in the previous two days. Overall the stock has fallen around 12% so far since listing.

The company currently has a market capitalisation of more than Rs 1.7 lakh crore, higher than its parent Vedanta whose market cap currently stands at nearly Rs 1.18 lakh crore.

Live Events

Also read: Vedanta demerger unlocks 20% value; Aluminium arm becomes most valuable

Vedanta Oil and Gas also jumped 5% to hit the upper circuit at Rs 32.88 apiece today in the morning, pushing the company’s market capitalisation to Rs 12,842 crore. The shares of the company, like those of Vedanta Aluminium, briefly hit 5% lower circuit in each of the four sessions following market debut at Rs 38 apiece on Monday.
The shares of the oil and gas business of the conglomerate have now fallen around 13.5% since listing.

Vedanta Power shares jumped more than 4% to trade at Rs 42.2 apiece on NSE today. The stock is less than 1% up from its listing price of Rs 41.8 apiece. The company currently has a market capitalisation of more than Rs 16,400 crore.Also read: RIL AGM strategy! How to trade Reliance shares amid hopes of big-bang announcements from Mukesh Ambani

Amid the post-listing volatility across the new four Vedanta entities, Harshal Dasani, Business Head at INVasset PMS, explained that this is typical of demerger scenarios where price discovery happens in compressed windows and pre-listing positioning unwinds rapidly.

He suggested a framework for investors to evaluate these names based on business quality rather than price action. “Four variables matter: where the underlying commodity sits in its cycle, the balance-sheet position of each entity post-demerger, capex visibility and execution credibility, and the regulatory or pricing environment specific to that sub-sector. A directional view at the sector level is the appropriate framing,” the analyst said.

Dasani then applied this framework to each segment. He noted that the steel cycle has a constructive structural setup with the capex revival, China stabilisation, and domestic capacity discipline supporting margins, which explains the relative outperformance on debut. “Aluminium sits in a balanced setup, where the structural story is intact but a meaningful share of the bull case has been priced in pre-listing; the correction is largely a valuation reset rather than a structural concern,” he added

Power is the most defensive of the four, with regulated returns offering stability but limited upside, and the modest price action fits that profile, according to the analyst. “Oil and gas faces the most challenging setup, with mature fields, a declining production trajectory in domestic blocks, an unsupportive crude price backdrop, and limited reinvestment optionality, which the price action through three lower circuits reflects. The honest read is that the quality and visibility tilt favours the early-cycle commodity exposure and the regulated utility profile over the late-cycle and declining-asset profile,” he concluded.

Also read: Vedanta Aluminium vs Power vs Oil & Gas vs Iron & Steel. Which stock should you buy?

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

This article was written by

Follow

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.