Ford Motor Company (F) Stock Holds Steady Near $14 Amid EV Pivot, Strong 2026 Guidance Offsets Q4 Miss

Ford Motor Co.’s stock has traded in a narrow range around $13.60 to $14.00 in late February 2026, reflecting investor focus on the automaker’s improved profitability outlook for the year despite a disappointing fourth-quarter earnings miss and ongoing challenges in its electric vehicle segment.

As of February 23, 2026, Ford (NYSE: F) closed at $13.64, down 2.64% on the day amid broader market pressures, with shares hovering near the upper end of its recent trading band. The stock has shown resilience year-to-date, climbing modestly from late-2025 levels, supported by a 49% gain over the prior 12 months driven by the company’s strategic shift toward hybrids and away from aggressive EV expansion. The 52-week high stands at $14.50, while the low is around $8.44.

The recent dip followed a February 10 earnings report where Ford posted mixed results for Q4 and full-year 2025. The company reported adjusted earnings per share of $0.13 for the quarter, beating some low expectations but missing consensus forecasts of around $0.19. Revenue came in at approximately $45.89 billion for Q4, above estimates, though full-year adjusted EBIT landed at $6.8 billion—near the company’s guided range but below some analyst projections.

Special items weighed heavily, including a massive $19.5 billion writedown tied to restructuring its Model e EV unit, supplier disruptions from a Novelis plant fire impacting aluminum supply for F-Series trucks, and tariff-related costs. These factors contributed to a reported net loss for the quarter and year. Ford Model e posted a $4.8 billion operating loss in 2025, an improvement from prior years but still significant. EV sales declined 14% annually and plunged 52% in Q4 following the loss of federal tax credits.

Investors, however, latched onto Ford’s forward-looking guidance, which painted a brighter picture for 2026. The company projected adjusted EBIT of $8 billion to $10 billion—up from $6.8 billion in 2025—with adjusted free cash flow expected at $5 billion to $6 billion. Capital expenditures are forecasted at $9.5 billion to $10.5 billion, including investments in a new Ford Energy business for battery storage systems. Ford Pro, the commercial vehicles segment, is targeted for $6.5 billion to $7.5 billion in EBIT, while Model e anticipates another $4 billion to $4.5 billion loss but with improvements in Gen 1 products.

Management highlighted a “hybrid-first” strategy to align with customer demand. Hybrids set records in 2025, with U.S. sales exceeding 228,000 units—a 22% increase—and models like the F-150 hybrid maintaining dominance as America’s top-selling full-size hybrid pickup. Ford expects hybrids to play a central role in reaching approximately 50% of global volume from hybrids, extended-range EVs, and full EVs by 2030, up from 17% in 2025. The company plans to offer hybrid options across its North American lineup and introduce affordable EVs on a new Universal EV Platform, with a midsize electric pickup targeted for 2027.

Ford Blue, encompassing ICE and hybrid vehicles, generated $3 billion in operating profit in 2025 despite margin compression. Executives emphasized prioritizing high-demand, profitable products like Maverick hybrids and premium F-150 trims, including V-8, Lariat, and Raptor variants.

Broader initiatives include affordability measures such as entry-level trims for Explorer and Bronco, extended financing, and targeted incentives for former Escape owners following the model’s discontinuation. Ford also plans five new vehicles under $40,000 by decade’s end to address market challenges.

Analysts remain cautiously optimistic, with a consensus “Hold” rating from 15-17 firms. Average 12-month price targets range from $13.02 to $13.09, implying modest downside or flat performance from current levels, though some targets reach $16.00. Bullish views cite hybrid momentum, cost discipline, and potential margin expansion toward an 8% adjusted EBIT target by 2029. Critics point to execution risks in EV restructuring, potential sales softness from limited 2026 launches, and industry headwinds like affordability pressures and flat U.S. volumes.

Recent developments include a dividend declaration of 15 cents per share for Q1 2026, payable March 2 to shareholders of record February 13. Insider activity featured gifts of Class B shares from a voting trust, while the company showcased its UEV platform for efficiency in electric commercial vehicles.

Ford’s trajectory reflects a pragmatic reset in a transitional auto market. With hybrids driving near-term profits and EVs repositioned for longer-term viability, the Dearborn-based automaker aims to balance innovation with financial discipline. Investors will watch Q1 results in late April for updates on hybrid ramp-up, EV cost reductions, and any guidance tweaks amid evolving trade policies and consumer trends.

As legacy automakers navigate electrification, Ford’s hybrid emphasis and profitability focus position it to weather near-term volatility while building toward sustained gains.