Moviegoers will find a wealth of familiar franchises on the big screen this year. It may not be enough to save the box office.
New entrants from popular film series dominate the movie slate in the next 12 months. The 2026 schedule features releases from Star Wars, Marvel, DC Comics, Toy Story, Super Mario Bros., Hunger Games, Scream, Scary Movie, Minions, Dune and Jumanji.
Intellectual property like these established franchises has long been an important part of Hollywood, but they are increasingly vital in 2026 as the theatrical industry seeks to break the $10 billion mark at the domestic box office for the first time since the pandemic.
But some big-name installments aren’t drawing the crowds they used to, and industry insiders worry the $10 billion benchmark may be beyond reach this year for a post-pandemic industry that has been rocked by production shutdowns, the consolidation of major studios and a shift in consumer viewing toward streaming.
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“The reliance on franchises has been a little trickier the last few years,” said Alicia Reese, senior vice president of equity research for Wedbush. “Yes, there’s a level of certainty … but it’s not a home run. It’s never going to be a home run from here on out, because people are pickier than they used to be. They know what’s coming. Word of mouth means more than ever.”
Since 2010, the top 10 highest-grossing films domestically have predominantly been franchise films, according to data from Comscore. During that time, between eight and 10 of the films released each year were a sequel, prequel or remake. The only outlier was 2020, when seven of the top 10 films were franchise-based, due to the number of films that were delayed during Covid shutdowns.
And, of course, a number of the original titles that broke into the top 10 have become franchises themselves in the last two decades. Look at “Avatar,” “Frozen,” “Zootopia,” “Inside Out,” “Secret Life of Pets” and “Ted.”
“Studios clearly feel that audience comfortability — with going to see a movie where they already, in some sense, know what they’re getting before they walk into the auditorium — is a bet worth making,” said Paul Dergarabedian, head of marketplace trends at Comscore.
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As studios lean into the safety of a built-in audience, box office sales become more reliant on the success of these franchise films.
Prior to the pandemic, during the span of 2010 to 2019, top 10 films represented an average of 30% of the total domestic box office annually. Outpacing the group was the 2019 calendar where these films accounted for nearly 40% of the annual haul. All 10 films that year were IP-driven, and nine of them generated more than $1 billion globally.
Post-pandemic, the average percentage that the top 10 films represent of the total annual domestic box office is 44%.
“I remember having this conversation the late ’90s,” said Eric Handler, managing director and senior research analyst at Roth Capital Partners. “The box office has for the last several decades been franchise-driven. That’s just the way it is. Why? It’s because when there’s familiarity with content, there’s a greater chance that people will show up because there’s an affinity towards a particular franchise and it’s already known.”
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Now, Hollywood is facing the harsh reality of what happens when franchises fall flat.
Great expectations
Two of the most anticipated films to hit theaters last year — Universal’s “Wicked: For Good” and Disney’s “Avatar: Fire and Ash” — underperformed expectations.
The first “Wicked” movie, released in 2024, tallied $475 million at the domestical box office and a little more than $750 million globally during its run in theaters. A year later, the second part of the duology collected just under $350 million from the U.S. and Canada and about $525 million globally.
Box office analysts attributed the smaller ticket sales to a drop in quality between the first and second installments. “Wicked” generated an 88% “Fresh” rating on review aggregator Rotten Tomatoes, while “Wicked: For Good” scored a 66% rating.
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“Avatar: Fire and Ash” had even bigger shoes to fill. James Cameron’s breakout hit “Avatar,” released in 2009, snared $785.2 million domestically and $2.1 billion internationally. It remains the highest-grossing film of all-time at the box office with $2.9 billion in ticket sales.
More than a decade later, “Avatar: The Way of Water” hit theaters, generating $688.8 million domestically and $1.6 billion internationally, bringing its total haul to $2.3 billion.
But when “Fire and Ash” hit theaters in December, consumer demand wasn’t nearly as high and the allure of Cameron’s ground-breaking filming techniques had worn off. “Fire and Ash,” which is still playing in theaters, has tallied just $378.5 million domestically and passed $1 billion internationally as of Sunday.
Wedbush’s Reese said part of the problem can be trying to mine too much from any one franchise.
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Take, for example, Disney’s Marvel Cinematic Universe. The film franchise has been a box office darling for nearly two decades, but struggled in the wake of the climactic “Avengers: Endgame” in 2019 to produce consistent quality sequels. At the same time, it flooded the streaming market with a dozen new television series.
“If you try to stretch it too thin and you don’t put the same level of attention to details that it’s not going to work,” Reese said.
There’s also risk in trying to broaden a niche interest into a global success, she said. Do filmmakers stay close to the original IP and play to its base, or do they shoot for a wider audience and a bigger splash?
Sandworms emerge on the desert planet Arrakis in Denis Villeneuve’s “Dune: Part Two.”
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Warner Bros. | Legendary Entertainment
Reese noted Warner Bros.’ new Dune franchise, starring Timothée Chalamet and directed by Denis Villeneuve, is a good example of a series that’s threaded the needle, landing with fans who already loved the books at the same time that it drew in new crowds.
“If it’s a good film, it’ll service that core audience and it might bring in some newbies and have that broader appeal,” Reese said. “But, if you try to get that broad appeal and you’re not servicing your core fans, they will turn against you. That will spell huge problems, because if they don’t like the film, everyone else is going to find out about it, and they won’t go either, right?”
More than a film
Since Covid shutdowns all but decimated the movie industry in early 2020, the number of films being produced for theatrical release has declined.
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As studios produce fewer films, they’re counting even more on what they perceive as the safe bets of tried and true IP.
In 2024, 94 movies were released in more than 2,000 locations, a 20% decline from the 120 wide releases in 2019. That decline was mirrored in the box office results, which were down about 23% from the $11.4 billion tallied in 2019.
In 2025, there were 112 wide released films, about 6.6% down from 2019 levels, but the box office still lagged more than 20%.
Hollywood analysts point to several factors to explain why the domestic box office continues to drag.
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There is a lack of theatrical content, particularly films that are in the mid-budget range — $15 million to $90 million. Most of these films, which tend to be dramas, comedies, romantic comedies and thrillers, have transitioned to streaming, as they are cheaper to make and help pad digital libraries with new content.
At the same time, consumers have become pickier about what they watch and the home entertainment space has advanced in a way that in-home technology makes staying on the couch easier.
Because of this, studios and theater owners have started “eventizing” film releases — promoting the films as must-see in premium large format theaters like IMAX, Dolby Cinema, Screen X or 4DX; selling specialty merchandise like popcorn buckets and drink sippers as well as limited-time food options; and hosting events associated with a film release like friendship bracelet making for the Taylor Swift concert film release.
Often, the films that are easiest to promote in this way are those that are based on known franchises.
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Last year, when “Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale” hit theaters, Alamo Drafthouse hosted fancy dress screenings, encouraging moviegoers to arrive in period-appropriate attire. The event included a costume contest and themed drinks and food. The theater chain has hosted similar events for screenings of James Bond and Star Wars films and will host one for the upcoming “Wuthering Heights” adaptation.
And these franchises aren’t just showing up in movie theaters. Many major film studios also have their own consumer product and experience divisions, which rely on theatrical content to not only sell merchandise but fuel theme park designs, live events and even cruise ships.
Fans of franchises are hungry for products that celebrate and show off their favorite characters or movie moments. This can manifest in the form of apparel, bedding, kitchen utensils and bumper stickers all the way to collectibles, luxury watches, electronics and seasonal products like ornaments.
Disney has built theme park lands, rides and cruise ship elements based on Star Wars, Marvel, The Muppets, Pixar films like Cars, The Incredibles, Toy Story and Monsters Inc., as well as Disney Animation properties like Frozen, Zootopia, Moana, The Lion King and the Little Mermaid.
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New Toy Story Land at Disney’s Hollywood Studio
Source: Courtesy Visit Orlando
Comcast’s Universal, too, has decked out its theme parks with its own properties — Jurassic Park, Minions, Secret Life of Pets, Dark Universe and How to Train Your Dragon — alongside licensed franchises like the Wizarding World of Harry Potter and Nintendo.
And beloved and well-tended-to franchises have staying power: The Star Wars franchise hasn’t notched a new theatrical release since 2019, yet it’s remained one of the top film franchises in the cultural zeitgeist, according to Fandom, the world’s largest platform for entertainment fans.
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Disclosure: CNBC and Rotten Tomatoes are divisions of Versant Media.
Apollo Global Management signage in New York on Dec. 5, 2023.
Jeenah Moon | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Apollo’sJohn Zito had a blunt assessment of how private equity firms are valuing their software holdings as shares of comparable public tech companies have plunged: They’re not, he said.
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Zito, co-president of the firm’s giant asset management division and its head of credit, spoke to clients of investment bank UBS last month in remarks first published by the Wall Street Journal. CNBC confirmed Zito’s comments.
“I literally think all the marks are wrong,” Zito told the clients. “I think private equity marks are wrong.”
For weeks, investors have punished the shares of public software companies on fears that the latest tools from Anthropic and OpenAI will make these companies obsolete. That has fed concerns that private credit lenders are sitting on stale valuations of their software loans, igniting a wave of redemptions as investors ask to withdraw funds from private credit vehicles.
Retail investors have pulled about $10 billion from private credit funds in the first quarter, according to analysis by the Financial Times. Amid the stampede, an array of industry leaders have sought to calm markets by explaining that the underlying companies are still performing well.
While Wall Street figures including Jeffrey Gundlach and Mohamed El-Erian have flagged risks in private credit, Zito is among the first from within the industry to candidly acknowledge weakness in the market.
An Apollo spokesman declined to comment on Zito’s remarks. They come amid a tough backdrop for alternative asset managers, who’ve seen their shares battered this year. Zito and other Apollo executives have sought to draw a distinction between Apollo and other players in private credit.
Most of Apollo’s loans are to larger, more stable companies rated investment grade, and software makes up less than 2% of the firm’s total assets under management, Apollo told analysts last month. The firm has zero exposure to private equity stakes in software firms, it said.
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‘Bad ending’
While Zito’s comments at the UBS event were about valuations in private equity, many of the companies bought by the industry also took out private credit loans. If the loans are in trouble, that means the equity is also in worse shape, he pointed out.
Zito singled out software companies taken private between 2018 and 2022 — a period of high valuations and low interest rates — as particularly exposed, warning that many were “lower quality” than larger public competitors.
Zito also said that private credit lenders, and by extension the investors backing the loans, could see deep losses in the coming years. That’s based on what he said could be the eventual recovery rates on loans to a generic small-to-medium sized software firm.
Lenders could recoup “somewhere between 20 and 40 cents” in those companies if they are “in the wrong place” in terms of the new AI-led regime, he said.
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While lenders who focused heavily on the software sector are heading for trouble, in Zito’s view, the broad asset class will endure the current upheaval.
“If you do stupid things and you do concentrated things, and you do things that you’re not supposed to do in your vehicle,” Zito said, “you probably will have a bad ending.”
Tax investigations by HM Revenue & Customs into the UK’s largest companies are now taking nearly three and a half years to resolve on average, according to new analysis by multinational law firm Pinsent Masons.
The research shows that open tax investigations handled by HMRC’s Large Business Directorate (LBD) last an average of 41 months, roughly three years and five months, although this is slightly faster than the previous year’s average of 45 months.
The number of active cases has also increased, rising from 2,031 investigations to 2,149 over the past year. The rise reflects both HMRC’s efforts to clamp down on tax non-compliance and the significant amount of time required to conclude complex corporate tax enquiries.
HMRC’s Large Business Directorate focuses on the UK’s largest enterprises, roughly 2,000 companies with annual revenues exceeding £200 million. These businesses collectively account for around 40 per cent of all tax collected by the UK government.
With more than 2,100 investigations currently open, the figures suggest that roughly half of Britain’s largest companies are under some form of tax scrutiny at any given time. In many cases, companies may face multiple simultaneous enquiries covering different aspects of their tax affairs.
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Jake Landman, partner and head of tax disputes at Pinsent Masons, said the growing number of cases partly reflects HMRC’s push to close the UK’s estimated £47 billion tax gap, the difference between the amount of tax owed and the amount actually collected.
“The increase in open investigations is being driven by HMRC’s increased efforts to tackle the tax gap as well as the time required to complete complex corporate investigations,” he said.
Over the past year alone, HMRC opened 1,879 new investigations into large businesses, an increase of 21.1 per cent, equivalent to 327 additional cases compared with the previous year.
Landman warned that prolonged investigations can place significant operational and financial strain on businesses, particularly during a period of economic uncertainty.
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“Having businesses’ tax affairs under investigation for three, four or even five years runs counter to efforts to make the UK a more business-friendly environment,” he said. “Lengthy investigations create additional administrative and financial burdens at a time when business confidence is already fragile.”
Corporate tax disputes can be especially complex, often involving international operations, transfer pricing arrangements, and disputes over the interpretation of evolving tax legislation. These factors frequently contribute to the extended duration of investigations.
However, the data also shows that HMRC has made some progress in clearing its backlog. The tax authority closed 1,761 cases during the past year, up from 1,617 the year before.
That improvement has helped reduce the average investigation duration by four months year-on-year.
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“HMRC does deserve credit for reducing the average time it takes to complete investigations,” Landman said. “But the fact remains that some cases remain open for more than four years, which highlights the need for additional resources if the system is to become more efficient.”
The issue has drawn increasing scrutiny from lawmakers. The Public Accounts Committee is currently conducting an inquiry into HMRC’s approach to tax compliance among large businesses.
The parliamentary investigation is examining how effectively HMRC ensures that multinational companies and major UK corporations pay the correct amount of tax, as well as whether the current investigative process strikes the right balance between enforcement and maintaining a competitive business environment.
In its call for evidence, the committee has asked businesses, advisers and experts to provide insights into how HMRC handles tax disputes with large corporations and whether improvements are needed to reduce delays and increase transparency.
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The inquiry forms part of a wider debate about the UK’s tax enforcement system, particularly at a time when government finances remain under pressure and policymakers are seeking ways to improve compliance while maintaining the country’s attractiveness to global investors.
For many large businesses, the findings highlight the growing complexity of the UK tax landscape and the increasing importance of robust tax governance and compliance frameworks as scrutiny from regulators intensifies.
Amy Ingham
Amy is a newly qualified journalist specialising in business journalism at Business Matters with responsibility for news content for what is now the UK’s largest print and online source of current business news.
American Petroleum Institute President and CEO Mike Sommers explains how Middle East war is impacting the world demand for oil on Mornings with Maria.
The war in Iran is pushing oil and gas prices higher, and while the world economy faces a shock from energy prices, an analysis by Goldman Sachs finds that the conflict is unlikely to lead to a broader supply chain crisis like what occurred due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Economists at Goldman Sachs found that the Iran war is expected to lead to higher oil prices that will reduce global economic growth by 0.3% of GDP while increasing headline inflation by about 0.5 to 0.6 percentage points over the next year, with a smaller 0.1 to 0.2 percentage point boost to core inflation.
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The report noted that risks are skewed toward larger impacts as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to shipping. The strait is a narrow choke point that shipping traffic from the Persian Gulf must pass through to access global sea lanes.
Goldman Sachs assessed that global central banks will be particularly sensitive to inflation concerns in the wake of the supply chain disruptions that occurred due to the pandemic and were a key contributor to a surge in inflation. However, the economists’ analysis sees the Iran war supply shock as being limited to energy as opposed to the broader supply chain.
Iran has conducted missile strikes against targets in the Middle East amid the conflict. (Reuters)
“A key difference between 2021-2022 and today, however, is that today’s shock is more narrowly concentrated in the energy sector, whereas the energy price increases in 2022 were only one aspect of a much broader global supply chain crisis and inflation surge,” the Goldman Sachs economists wrote.
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One of the reasons for the supply shock being confined to energy products is that most of the developed economies around the world have limited non-energy trade exposure to countries in the Middle East.
The report found that less than 1% of imports to the U.S. and other developed markets like the Eurozone, the U.K., Japan and Canada come from the Middle East. By comparison, China and East Asia account for more than 20% of global trade, Goldman’s analysis noted.
One reason why the supply shock is being confined to energy products is that most of the developed economies have limited non-energy trade exposure to countries in the Middle East. (Giuseppe Cacace/AFP via Getty Images)
Another contrast with the 2021-2022 supply chain issues is that fewer disruptions of critical inputs and “just in time” inventory management are anticipated, as the analysis found the Middle East’s potential bottleneck exports are focused on certain chemicals and metals that are unlikely to create significant disruptions.
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Goldman Sachs said methanol appears to be the most likely source of production disruptions, as it’s used in making acetic acid, which helps produce industrial adhesives, solvents and paints.
Iran is the source of about 20% of global production capacity and while the loss of that supply could have an impact over the longer term, the economists don’t see clear choke points at this time.
Ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz are at risk of attack from Iran. (Fox News)
The third reason the firm sees limited supply chain impacts beyond the energy sector is that the Middle East isn’t a significant trade hub where products are re-exported from.
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Vessels such as yachts, tugboats and floating cranes are the main goods that are re-exported from Middle Eastern countries.
“In summary, our analysis suggests that the major risk to global supply and inflation is mostly confined to energy, which limits the risk that the severe supply chain disruptions (and associated surge in inflation) and large second-round inflation effects observed in 2021-2022 will re-emerge,” the Goldman Sachs economists said.
BlueCastle Capital was set up Welshman Ed Williams and sees huge growth potential for build-to-rent schemes
16:18, 16 Mar 2026Updated 17:03, 16 Mar 2026
How BlueCastle Capital’s build-to-rent scheme in the centre of Cardiff could look.(Image: BlueCastle Capital)
The developer behind what will be the tallest building in Wales has an appetite for further projects. Last week BlueCastle Capital, whose founder Ed Williams was born and raised in Cardiff, secured planning consent for its 50-storey scheme at the last development site (plot 5) at the mixed-use Central Square development around Cardiff Central Station.
At 178 metres high it will be the second tallest building outside of London – behind the 200 metre Deansgate Square South Tower in Manchester. The development will consist of 528 build-to-rent apartments, as well as a standalone two-storey pavilion providing 6,500 sq ft of commercial and restaurant space.
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The scheme, designed by 5plus and Layer Studio, will offer a range of amenities, such as a gym, co-working space, a wellness area, a roof terrace, a bike hub, a café and landscaped public spaces.
Planning approval from Cardiff Council follows public consultation and builds on a previously consented 35-storey scheme.
Artist impression of BlueCastle Capital’s 35-storey build-to-rent apartment scheme in the centre of Cardiff.
Barry Coltrini, development director at BlueCastle Capital, said: “This is a milestone for our Cardiff project and for the transformation of Central Square. The consent allows us to bring forward a landmark building that will deliver high-quality, sustainable homes and meaningful public spaces, while contributing long-term social, economic and environmental value to the city. We are grateful for he constructive engagement with the council, local community and wider stakeholders throughout the planning process”.
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To date, BlueCastle has invested approximately £70m in acquiring and progressing its five build-to-rent development sites, which together will deliver around 2,500 new homes across Cardiff, Leeds, Birmingham, Stevenage and Sheffield.
On the potential for further project in Wales, over the long-term Mr Williams, who attended Cardiff High School, said “We are committed to Cardiff as a location and see huge potential for the build-to-rent sector within the city .”
Blucastle said it was not yet in a position to confirm when work on the scheme could start and be ready for occupancy.
The projected capital cost of its inaugural Welsh scheme has not been disclosed, while it said the level of rental income would be decided by market rents at the time of its launch.
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However, once operational the company see it as a long-term investment hold. Mr Williams said: “BlueCastle’s business model is to be a fully integrated developer and asset manager with involvement in the value creation process from site selection and acquisition all the way through to long term ownership.
Following a career in equity markets with Merrill Lynch, Mr Williams, founded BlueCastle Capital in 2015. The London-based company has structured, developed and asset managed more than £3bn worth of real estate projects.
The UK build-to-rent sector is one of the fastest-growing sectors in UK real estate attracting around £4.7bn in 2025. BlueCastle believes it is well placed to become one of the UK’s leading developer and operator of build-to-rent assets.
Last month its acquired the site of the former Yorkshire Post headquarters in Leeds, pushing the its build-to-rent development pipeline to £1.1bn.
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Mr Williams, who attended Cardiff High School, said: “Pushing our development pipeline beyond £1bn is a significant moment for the business and reflects the scale of our ambition in UK build-to-rent. We believe we are building the highest-quality build-to-rent development pipeline in the UK, with each site selected for its location, fundamentals and long-term relevance to renters.”
Bluecastle acquired plot 5 from Cardiff-based property development firm Rightacres Property. The value of deal was not disclosed, but is understood to have been in the region of £15m. Over the last decade Rightacres has delivered 1.25 million sq ft of mixed-use space – of which around 850,000 sq ft is grade A office – at Central Square
The scheme is a major employment location for the city, boosted by its close proximity to Cardiff Central Station, with its tenants who include HMRC, BBC Wales, Hugh James and Hodge Bank employing thousands of people
Lancashire group hails ‘commitment to strengthening the UK’s power infrastructure’
Ipsum Group has acquired Blaydon-based Rosh Engineering(Image: Ipsum)
Utilities engineering specialist Ipsum Group has acquired a high-voltage specialist in the North East and a drainage and sewerage specialist in the Midlands as it continues its national expansion.
Chorley-based Ipsum has acquired Gateshead’s Rosh Engineering to expand its power engineering capability, and has also completed a deal for Warwickshire’s Wilkinson Environmental to grow its Midlands division and particularly its water division.
Rosh Engineering was founded in 1981 and specialises in power transformer and high-voltage services, working across the power, water, infrastructure and telecoms sectors.
Ipsum Group’s chief executive, Andrew Cowan, said: “I’m delighted to welcome the whole team at Rosh Engineering to Ipsum. Adding to our rapidly expanding business, they bring a depth of transformer and high voltage engineering expertise that is highly complementary alongside our existing capabilities. Their technical precision, strong safety culture and proven track record in complex operational environments align closely with our own standards.
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“This acquisition further enhances our ability to provide our customers with specialist support across critical high voltage assets, reinforcing our commitment to strengthening the UK’s power infrastructure.”
Ian Dormer, managing director at Blaydon-based Rosh Engineering, added: “For more than four decades, Rosh has been built on technical excellence and a commitment to delivering specialist transformer services to the highest standard. Joining Ipsum provides a strong platform for sustainable growth, broader project opportunities and continued investment in our people and facilities. We are excited about the opportunities this creates for our team and our customers.”
Atherstone-based Wilkinson Environmental specialises in civil engineering, drainage and sewer work. Ipsum CEO Mr Cowan, said: “The strong technical expertise, operational capability and commitment to service excellence of the Wilkinson team make them a perfect fit for Ipsum. I am delighted to welcome them into the Ipsum family.
“They join our rapidly expanding business which will now have an even stronger presence in the Midlands, and an enhanced civil engineering and infrastructure service offering to customers in complex and regulated environments.”
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Ipsum Group has acquired Warwickshire’s Wilkinson Environmental(Image: Ipsum)
Wilkinson Environmental owner and MD, Mike Moss, added: “We’ve worked closely with Ipsum in the past and it’s a huge complement to all of us here at Wilkinson to be held in such high esteem. I’m certain this move will be extremely beneficial for my colleagues in terms of job security, training and development opportunities and investment in resources locally.
“We go forward with confidence, and a commitment to continue to offer supply chain partners the quality and reliability of service we are renowned for. ”
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