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From Oman to Tanzania: How the Iran war is redrawing India’s trade map

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From Oman to Tanzania: How the Iran war is redrawing India’s trade map
The conflict in West Asia is reshaping India’s trade flows in unexpected ways, triggering a dramatic reordering of both import sources and export destinations.

The most striking shift has been Oman’s emergence as a key trade partner. Ranked only 30th among India’s import sources in April-May 2025, the Gulf nation has jumped to 10th place in the first two months of the current financial year. Imports from Oman surged 3.8 times to $3.4 billion, largely driven by energy shipments.

The changes extend far beyond the Gulf. The UAE slipped to fourth place among India’s import partners, while Russia reclaimed the second spot, followed by the US. India’s search for alternative LPG supplies helped lift imports from the US, while purchases from Brazil rose 2.8 times to $2.7 billion. Imports from Peru climbed 3.7 times to more than $2 billion, making it India’s 20th-largest import source compared with 35th a year earlier.

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Export patterns have also undergone a significant shift. Singapore overtook China and the Netherlands to become India’s third-largest export destination during April-May, trailing second-ranked UAE by just $180 million. Tanzania emerged as the eighth-largest destination for Indian exports, up from 25th place a year ago, while South Africa climbed to 10th.

According to Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agrawal, exports of oil products and gems and jewellery have driven Tanzania’s rise, with shipments increasing from $800 million in April-May last year to $2.2 billion this year. Exports to Sri Lanka nearly tripled to $1.8 billion, lifting the island nation to 12th place among India’s export markets.
Singapore’s rise has been fuelled largely by a 2.2-fold increase in imports of Indian petroleum products, with exports touching $5.1 billion. The island nation has been among the economies most affected by disruptions caused by the conflict in West Asia, helping it edge past China despite a more than 25% increase in Indian exports to the world’s second-largest economy.
The disruption of shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz, the vital gateway to the Persian Gulf, has elevated Oman’s strategic importance. Agrawal said Oman, with which India recently operationalised a free trade agreement, has opened the ports of Sohar, Salalah and Duqm for the transit of Indian goods to destinations across the region, including the UAE.
These arrangements have helped India restore exports to West Asia to nearly last year’s levels. Imports from the region, however, remain around 18% lower due to ongoing disruptions in energy supplies.

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Columbia Dividend Opportunity Fund Q2 2026 Commentary

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13-Week Money Supply Growth Is Trending Above 5%

Columbia Dividend Opportunity Fund Q2 2026 Commentary

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They Retired at 62 With $650,000 Between Two IRAs and Lived on His Pension for 11 Years. At 73 Their First RMDs Came to $42,000, on Top of the Pension

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They Retired at 62 With $650,000 Between Two IRAs and Lived on His Pension for 11 Years. At 73 Their First RMDs Came to $42,000, on Top of the Pension

Quick Read

  • Leaving $650,000 in IRAs untouched for 11 years grew the balance to $1.11 million, forcing a $42,000 first-year RMD on top of pension income.

  • The couple missed 11 years of Roth conversion opportunities at the 12% rate, pushing RMD dollars into the 22% bracket instead.

  • When one spouse dies, the survivor files under single brackets where the 22% rate starts at $50,400, making the same RMD far more costly.

  • Two retirees, same $1 million, same 4% rule, buy one finished with $1.4 million, the other hit $0 in 12 years. Our free reader guide explains the flaw that separated them, and the income-first method built to avoid it.

Let’s start by considering a couple retiring at 62. His pension covers the mortgage, the groceries, the property tax, and the trip to see the grandkids twice a year. Two traditional IRAs, hers and his, hold a combined $650,000 on the day they stop working, and they never take a distribution. Now imagine that eleven quiet years have passed, and then the first required minimum distribution letter arrives, followed by a second, and the number attached to those letters is larger than either of them planned for.

A smiling older woman in a pink shirt, straw hat, and sunglasses points at a blue globe while an older man in a green polo shirt, straw hat, and sunglasses holds the globe. A purple suitcase and passports are visible on a wooden desk with a laptop in a home setting.
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This pattern is fairly common. Pension income covers essentials. The IRAs sit as “just in case” money. Leaving them untouched often costs more than it saves.

What The First Distribution Actually Looks Like

Required distributions from a traditional IRA now begin at age 73 under SECURE 2.0 for anyone born between 1951 and 1959. The amount is calculated by dividing the prior year-end balance by a life expectancy factor from the IRS Uniform Lifetime Table. At 73, that factor is 26.5.

Assume the $650,000 grew at roughly 5% a year for eleven years. The combined balance at 73 sits near $1.11 million, producing a first-year required distribution close to $42,000. At 7% growth, the balance reaches about $1.37 million, with a distribution near $51,700. At 3%, roughly $900,000 with a distribution around $34,000. The growth rate assumption drives the entire number.

The 4% Rule is Broken, Built On A World That No Longer Exists

Every retiree knows about the 4% rule, but it frames retirement as a slow liquidation and still causes retirees with seven-figure accounts to agonize over a dinner out.

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There’s a different way to run the math that makes more sense today. Build an income floor — dividends, interest, and Social Security that cover your essential bills every month — and you never have to sell shares into a down market just to pay them.

Our free reader guide, The 4% Rule Is Broken, walks through it in about 15 minutes. Access the report here.

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Janus Henderson Forty Fund Q2 2026 Commentary

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Futu Holdings: The China Discount Is Obsolete After Q2 Earnings Report (NASDAQ:FUTU)

Janus Henderson Investors exists to help clients achieve their long-term financial goals. Formed in 2017 from the merger between Janus Capital Group and Henderson Global Investors, we are committed to adding value through active management. For us, active is more than our investment approach – it is the way we translate ideas into action, how we communicate our views and the partnerships we build in order to create the best outcomes for clients. While our investment managers have the flexibility to follow approaches best suited to their areas of expertise, overall our people come together as a team. This is reflected in our Knowledge. Shared ethos, which informs the dialogue across the business and drives our commitment to empowering clients to make better investment and business decisions.www.janushenderson.com

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French finance ministry expects record debt in 2026, reaching nearly 120% of GDP

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French finance ministry expects record debt in 2026, reaching nearly 120% of GDP

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