Gold falls around 2% in one week as skyrocketing oil prices fuel inflation worries. What lies ahead?

Gold prices were trading almost flat in the international market on Friday, but the yellow metal is on track to record a nearly 2% weekly loss. This comes as oil prices briefly skyrocketed to $126 per barrel, fuelling inflation worries and reinforcing expectations of higher interest rates for longer.

Spot gold prices were steady at around $4,620 per ounce on Friday morning. US ⁠gold futures for June delivery rose 0.1% to $4,632.70. This came after gold prices dropped to a one-month low on Wednesday.

Notably, MCX is closed in the morning session today on account of Maharashtra Day. Earlier on Thursday, gold futures with June expiry on the exchange closed around Rs 114 higher at Rs 1,51,225 per 10 grams. The contracts with August expiry also closed marginally higher at Rs 1,54,390 per 10 grams.

Iran-US war

After hitting as high as $126 per barrel on Thursday, oil prices cooled down but continued to remain elevated above $110 per barrel today. This comes as the war between Iran and the US entered its third month, with the Strait of Hormuz continuing to remain choked and keeping investors on edge.

US President Donald Trump said that the military blockade of Iranian ports could last for months. A report by Reuters, citing officials, hinted that the US President may be planning a series of fresh military strikes to compel Iran to negotiate an end to the conflict.
Iran, meanwhile, said that it would respond with “long and painful strikes” on US positions if Washington renewed its strikes. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei stated that it was not reasonable to expect quick results from US talks, according to the official IRNA news agency. “Expecting to reach a result in a short time, regardless of who the mediator is, in my opinion, is not very realistic,” he was quoted as saying.

What lies ahead?

“In the near term, gold is expected to remain volatile and range-bound, with support near Rs 1,48,000 and resistance around Rs 1,52,000,” said Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst of Commodity and Currency at LKP Securities.

Also read: FPIs pull out Rs 60,847 cr in Apr; outflows hit Rs 1.92 lakh cr in first four months of 2026

Gold prices fell as oil prices rose, suggesting that the market is fearing increasing inflation and a potential central bank reaction more than rising growth risks, said Carsten Menke, Head Next Generation Research at Julius Baer. “Such short-term and sometimes sharp swings typically mirror moves in the paper market, not the physical market. They are the result of position squaring by speculative futures traders and trend followers, not safe-haven seekers,” he said.

Deutsche Bank, Germany’s leading international investment bank, recently predicted that the bullion’s share in global central bank reserves could increase to 40%, up from around 30% currently. Based on this scenario, the bank’s calculations indicate that gold prices could climb to $8,000 an ounce within five years, implying nearly 80% upside from current levels.

(With inputs from agencies)

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)