Business
Goldman traders warn stock selling isn’t over
The S&P 500 Index has already breached its short-term trigger that prompted Commodity Trading Advisers, or CTAs, to sell stocks. Goldman expects these systematic strategies – which follow the stock market direction rather than fundamental factors – to remain net sellers over the coming week, regardless of market direction.
A renewed decline could trigger about $33 billion of selling this week, according to Goldman. If pressure continues and the S&P 500 falls below 6,707, it could unlock up to $80 billion of additional systematic selling over the next month, the bank’s data show. In a flat market, CTAs are projected to unload roughly $15.4 billion of US equities this week, and even if stocks rise, the funds are expected to shed about $8.7 billion.
Investor stress was running high last week. The firm’s Panic Index – which combines one-month S&P implied volatility, VIX volatility, S&P one-month put-call skew and the slope of the S&P volatility term structure – most recently stood at 9.22, a level indicating markets are not far from “max fear” on Thursday.
The S&P 500 surged 2% on Friday, ending a volatile week with its biggest gain since May. The rally followed a sharp early-week drop in both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, triggered by the launch of a new AI automation tool from Anthropic PBC that wiped billions of dollars off software, financial services and asset-management stocks as investors reassessed disruption risks.
Positioning across the so-called systematic strategies was the most common question among Goldman’s clients Friday, underscoring the demand for a view of financial flows.
On top of the CTA selling, thin liquidity and ‘short gamma’ positioning will keep the market choppy, potentially magnifying swings in either direction as dealers buy into rallies and sell into drawdowns to balance their positions. S&P top-of-book liquidity — the volume of buy and sell orders available at the best bid and lowest ask price — has deteriorated sharply, falling to about $4.1 million from a year-to-date average near $13.7 million.
“The inability to transfer risk quickly lends itself to a choppier intraday tape and delays stabilization in overall price action,” Goldman’s trading desk team including Gail Hafif and Lee Coppersmith wrote in a note to clients Friday.
Option dealer positioning has also flipped in a way that may exacerbate moves. After sitting in an area of so-called long gamma that helped prevent a break above the 7,000 level, dealers are now estimated to be flat to short gamma. The dynamic that becomes more pronounced when liquidity is scarce.
“Buckle up,” the traders added.
Other systematic cohorts retain meaningful room to de-risk. Risk-parity positioning sits in the 81st percentile, looking back over a year, while volatility-control strategies are in the 71st percentile. Unlike CTAs, these funds respond to sustained changes in realized volatility, suggesting their impact would be more pronounced if volatility remains elevated. S&P 500 realized volatility is on the rise, but the 20-day gauge is still below levels seen in November and December.
Seasonality offers little relief. February has historically been a weaker and choppier month for both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 as supportive January flows — including retirement contributions and peak retail activity — fade.
Retail behavior is also showing signs of fatigue. After a year of relentless dip-buying, the latest two-day net retail imbalance showed roughly $690 million of selling last week, demonstrating less willingness to “buy all dips.” Popular retail trades tied to crypto and crypto-linked equities have been hit particularly hard, raising the risk that any broader rotation out of US stocks would mark a notable shift from last year’s trading patterns.
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Asian stocks rise, Nikkei jumps after Takaichi win
The Nikkei 225 Index surged as much as 5.7% to a record as a historic election victory by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi buoyed markets. The Kospi Index — a poster child for artificial intelligence investments — jumped over 4%. US equity-index futures advanced after the underlying gauges rose about 2% on Friday amid dip buying, while Bitcoin also recovered from its tumble. Yields on 10-year Treasuries rose almost two basis points on Monday.
Gold and silver opened the week higher, even though the precious metals are still way off their record highs. Brent crude dipped around 1% as tensions eased in the Middle East.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed to a record 50,000 on Friday, reflecting a shift toward cyclical stocks as investors pared exposure to technology. Monday’s rally in stocks sets up a critical week ahead, with markets gauging whether demand can broaden as scrutiny intensifies around valuations and the scale of investment tied to AI.
Traders were taking advantage of the selloff earlier last week, picking up some cheap stocks to extend the rotational trade into cyclicals and away from tech, said Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG in Sydney. The Wall Street tailwind and Japan election results mean “at least for the very, very short term, we’re going to see a good risk-on session across Asian equity markets,” he added.
Meanwhile, the yen fluctuated Monday as Takaichi secured a historic election triumph. The result cleared the way for more fiscal stimulus under Takaichi, adding pressure on Japanese bonds while potentially lifting stocks. Yields on the nation’s 10-year government bond rose five basis points on Monday.
Japan’s election outcome reinforced expectations for looser fiscal policy and sustained pressure on the yen, with investors bracing for so-called Takaichi trades to dominate markets on Monday.
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Dow Jones Average breaks 50,000 level for first time
The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged to close above the 50,000 mark for the first time on Friday.
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Business
Seafood stocks dip amid margin pressure and competition
The trade deal between the two nations is crucial for the Indian marine exports since the US is India’s largest market with 36.3% share in FY25, according to the data from the government’s Niryat (exports) portal. In addition, frozen shrimp makes up nearly two-thirds of India’s marine shipments to the US.
India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) expects a lower tariff rate to improve India’s cost position relative to Ecuador, Vietnam and Indonesia. This may also help reverse the slowdown in exports seen between August and November 2025 when Indian shipments to the US sharply declined amid effective duty rates as high as 58% compared with 18-49% for other exporting countries. Ind-Ra also expects the shrimp processing industry to fare better than its earlier forecast of a 12% year-on-year revenue decline and a 150-basis points margin compression for FY26. Improved order visibility is also likely to ease working-capital pressures.
AgenciesMargin pressure, intense competition weigh on the sector’s outlook
According to CareEdge, shrimp exports to the US rose 5% during the five months to August and then fell by 35% in August over July 2025, following strong frontloading of volumes ahead of higher reciprocal US tariffs. Indian exporters shifted towards other countries, but it affected profitability given that the US market generates higher value.
This is reflected in the financial performance of top marine exporters. Revenue growth for a sample of six exporters improved year-on-year for two quarters to September 2025, but margins softened, with average operating margin before depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda margin) slipping to 5.3% in the September quarter from 6.7% in the June quarter.
Though the trade deal has boosted hopes of a US market recovery, with the peak holiday season over and global demand set to soften in 2026, analysts expect the rebound to be gradual.
Shares of marine exporters jumped 6-31% on the BSE in five trading sessions since February 2, following the announcement of the India-US trade deal. Avanti Feeds and Waterbase were the top gainers, rising 31% and 27% respectively, while Sharat Industries and Coastal Corporation saw comparatively smaller gains of about 6% and 10%.
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