Q4: 2026-02-26 Earnings Summary

EPS of $0.31 beats by $0.29

 | Revenue of $30.62M (0.04% Y/Y) beats by $1.74M

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At a time when much of the global economy is grappling with uncertainty, India appears to be enjoying a rare alignment of strong growth and subdued inflation. In a conversation with ET Now, Aurodeep Nandi, India Economist, Nomura laid out why he believes the macro backdrop remains broadly supportive — even as debates continue around rates, the rupee, and inflation risks.

“India is in this situation where growth has surprised on the upside. So, the first half of the year growth has approximately been around 8% and inflation has been pretty low. Food inflation has come off quite a lot and also core inflation which is ex food and fuel has been low for now a couple of years.”

According to Nandi, the headwinds that weighed on the economy through 2024 and 2025 are now tapering off. With trade disruptions easing, wage growth expected to improve, and capital expenditure staying firm — particularly from states — the ingredients for sustained expansion appear to be in place.

He also underscored the policy environment. “Let us not forget that 2025 has been a year where there has been a lot of policy easing on the regulatory side, from RBI‘s perspective, even the budget has basically been pro-growth as opposed to pro-fiscal consolidation. So, the conditions are pretty good for growth.”

On inflation, the outlook remains constructive, provided monsoons behave. “We do not see major inflationary risks if we have decent monsoons and given that the core drivers behind lower underlying inflation still remain pretty much in place.”

Nomura expects GDP growth at 7.5% in FY26 and 7.1% in FY27, with inflation hovering around 4%. “So, yes, pretty much goldilocks continued.”
Bridging the FY26 Gap
When asked about the divergence between projections and official estimates, Nandi clarified, “So, our FY26 projection is 7.5%.”
He pointed to a combination of factors driving momentum in the current quarter. “The GST cut plus festive demand quarter means that a lot of consumption-related indicators have picked up in the last quarter. We also have urban wage growth picking up which we see in company results. Companies themselves have registered an increase in profit growth.”

Capital expenditure, particularly at the state level, remains supportive. A technical factor is also at play. “One of the reasons why real growth has been high in the last two quarters has been that the GDP deflator has also been low… GDP deflator is expected to fall further in this quarter.”

Taken together, these dynamics lead to an expectation of 7.7% GDP growth in Q3, compared with 8.2% in the previous quarter.

The Rate Cut Debate
With inflation cooling and growth resilient, the Monetary Policy Committee faces a delicate balancing act.

Nandi’s baseline view is clear: “Our baseline view is no more cuts.”

Yet he acknowledges the counterargument. “If you are achieving seven-percent-ish growth with low inflation, then the question is should you achieve a bit more by cutting rates further.”

He believes the Reserve Bank of India has room to act if needed. “RBI certainly has the bullets for a rate cut. There is nothing that should constrain the RBI at this point. The question is the application.”

For now, however, Nomura has stepped back from its earlier expectation of one more 25 basis point cut. “We earlier had one more 25 basis point cut but just given the way Indian macro situation is shifting, we have taken away that cut. So, currently we are at policy hold but… there is a risk of another cut.”

Rupee: Stability or More Volatility?
The rupee has seen bouts of volatility, though recent weeks have brought some calm. Nandi remains cautious.

“Our house forecast is rupee at around 90 level by the end of the calendar year.”

Trade tensions have eased from earlier extremes, but capital flows will be key. “If you have net FDI flows starting to recover and if you have the foreign portfolio money coming back, then probably you would have some support to the rupee.”

However, even inflows may not translate into full appreciation. “If foreign flows do come in and there is an appreciating pressure on the rupee, the RBI could say, hey, wait a minute, this is a great time for me to build up my reserves. So, you may not see that entire appreciation reflect in the market price.”

For now, he describes conditions as incrementally improving — though volatility remains part of the story.

Oil, Geopolitics and Inflation Risks
With geopolitical tensions simmering and oil prices volatile, the risk to inflation is under scrutiny. Nandi offered a nuanced view.

“The way oil price hits the economy is higher crude oil prices lead to higher petrol and diesel prices which then impacts inflation to the extent of the weight of petrol and diesel.”

But transmission may not be immediate. “Petrol, diesel prices in India have been constant for years now… If my pump price remains constant, then it does not really matter where crude oil price is up or down.”

Beyond oil, structural factors may be keeping inflation anchored. “We have a widening trade deficit with China, so a lot of cheap Chinese imports are coming into the market. There is also the case where you have digitisation, you have investment in infrastructure, so you have supply-side interventions also coming from the government.”

While base effects could cause temporary fluctuations, the broader trend appears stable. “It seems for now that inflation is broadly under control… as of now underlying inflation seems anchored at around 4%.”

In sum, India’s macro narrative remains one of resilience — strong growth, manageable inflation, and policy flexibility. Whether this “goldilocks” balance sustains over the next year will hinge on monsoons, global flows, and the fine calibration of monetary policy.

Transport Salaried Staffs’ Association (TSSA) has called for Sir Keir Starmer to resign as Labour leader following the party’s defeat to the Green Party in the Gorton and Denton by-election.

The transport and travel union, which is affiliated to the Labour Party, said the result reflected growing dissatisfaction among voters and warned that Labour’s recent political direction was costing it support.

Maryam Eslamdoust, general secretary of TSSA, said the party’s positioning under Keir Starmer had alienated core voters and created space for the Greens to gain ground.

“It’s clear that the disastrous lurch to the right under Keir Starmer is haemorrhaging Labour votes to the Greens,” she said. “There’s an urgent need for a change in leadership, and Keir must announce his departure immediately.”

Eslamdoust argued that replacing the leader alone would not be sufficient to reverse Labour’s fortunes. Instead, she said, the party needed a broader shift in policy direction, returning to what she described as its “radical soul”.

She called for an expansion of public ownership across key industries, including water, energy and mail services, alongside a substantial rise in the minimum wage. She also advocated for the introduction of a wealth tax to fund public services.

“Only by embracing ‘Real Labour’ policies will we be able to win back support from the voters who switched from our party to the Greens in Gorton and Denton,” she said.

The intervention underscores growing tensions between parts of the trade union movement and Labour’s current leadership, particularly over economic policy and the party’s positioning on public ownership and redistribution.

Labour has not yet responded publicly to the TSSA’s remarks.

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A 20-year-old named Jayson Joseph Michaels has been charged by the police after he allegedly planned to attack multiple political and religious locations in Perth.

Among the locations he reportedly targeted are the WA Parliament House and Muslim places of worship.

20-Year-Old Charged Over Alleged Terror Plot

According to 9News, police accuse Michaels of being motivated by white supremacist ideology. The police also claimed that the 20-year-old created a manifesto that outlines his intentions for the attack.

Michaels is also said to have maintained an encrypted group chat where he communicated his plans and intentions.

“[They contained] white supremacy ideology, anti-Muslim ideology, antisemitism, and quite frankly, abhorrent conversations about minorities and other races in this community,” WA Police Commissioner Col Blanch said at a press conference.

He added, “Most concerningly, there was a notebook that outlined preparations for a terrorist attack at significant locations.”

What Are the Alleged Plans of Jayson Joseph Michaels

According to the police, Michaels was planning on using bombs and firearms to carry out a mass casualty attack on different locations in Perth.

Aside from Muslim places of worship and the WA Parliament House, he was also targeting the building of the WA police headquarters, per ABC News.

Seven firearms have been seized from Michaels, along with a substantial knife collection. The police believes that the 20-year-old was radicalised online.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has reacted to the foiled terror plot, saying, “Allegations the man was planning to target the Muslim community through attacks on mosques — as well as attacks on the WA police and parliament — are particularly distressing.”

“There is no place in our country for any kind of racially or religiously-motivated prejudice or hate,” Albanese emphasized.

Dalal Street was heading for a volatile end to the week, with benchmark indices slipping below crucial support levels and traders bracing for further downside. The Nifty fell below the 25,300 mark recovering later, while Bank Nifty traded lower by nearly 0.7%, reflecting growing nervousness across sectors.

In a conversation with ET Now, market expert CA Rudramurthy BV flagged the breakdown as technically significant.

“See, Nifty definitely trading below 25,300 on spot is not a good sign, that was the last support and if you see the latest short-term low what we made recently that was at around 25,327. So now, Nifty is decisively trading below that number of 25,327 which was the recent low. And this confirms to me that yes, today if we close below 25,300, a weekly close below this will clearly signal to me that more downside is definitely there for very short term.”

According to him, a weekly close beneath this threshold would strengthen the bearish case in the near term.

Bank Nifty Joins the Weakness

What is adding to the concern is the weakness in banking stocks. Bank Nifty, which had been relatively resilient in recent sessions, slipped below the 60,800 level for the first time in this leg of the correction.
“And most important Bank Nifty which was showing strength till now, for the first time today it is trading below 60,800. So, Bank Nifty spot below 60,800 also tells to me that yes, the down move in Nifty will be led by Bank Nifty and IT which was already in pain continues the leg of move on the downside for Nifty.”
With IT stocks already under pressure, the broader market appears vulnerable to further downside if financials continue to weaken.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
From a technical standpoint, the next important support for Nifty lies in the 24,900–25,000 zone. For Bank Nifty, the long-term support is seen near 59,000.

“So, for me Nifty is a sell on every rise. Bank Nifty is now clearly showing signs of more weakness and any rise in market has to be used as a shorting opportunity for short-term trader… So, do not catch this falling knife. If you are a short-term trader, definitely wait out and look for opportunity to sell on rise.”

He emphasized that traders should remain highly selective, focusing on sector-specific and stock-specific opportunities rather than broad-based buying.

What Should Investors Do?
While short-term traders are advised to use rallies to lighten positions or initiate shorts, the tone is slightly different for long-term investors.

“But for long-term investor, yes, use this opportunity to buy selectively into the right sectors and stocks.”

With a truncated trading week ahead, decisive upside moves may take time to emerge. For now, the technical setup suggests caution, discipline, and a clear distinction between trading strategies and long-term investing.

As volatility returns, the market’s next directional cue may well depend on whether the Nifty manages to reclaim 25,300 — or confirms a deeper correction below it.