The Grey Owl All-Season Strategy’s objectives are to minimize drawdowns, outperform short-term bonds by several hundred basis points each year (i.e., beat “cash”), and participate meaningfully in risk-on rallies. For the full year 2025, GOAS returned +11.4% and met each of these objectives.
We are particularly pleased with the strategy’s 2025 performance given how the year began. While the popular “Magnificent 7 (MAGS)” group of stocks declined roughly -30% from its December 17, 2024 peak to the April 8, 2025 low 1 , the Grey Owl All-Season (GOAS) portfolio was down less than -3% at its worst point in early April. The rebound that followed was rapid, and the year ultimately proved strong for most risk assets. GOAS managed risk during the drawdown and then repositioned to participate as conditions turned risk-on.
A few specifics below on the present environment and our current positioning, but first a more detailed review of the performance of the “primary” asset classes. 2
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For the full year 2025, gold gained +63.7%, global equities rose +22.4%, U.S. equities followed closely at +17.7%, commodities increased 5.9%, and long-dated U.S. Treasury bonds returned +4.3%.
During the fourth quarter of 2025, precious metals continued to shine, with gold up another +11.5%. U.S. equities gained +2.7%, while global equities performed slightly better at +3.3%. Commodities were essentially flat, up +0.4%, and long-dated U.S. Treasury bonds declined -1.0%. Over this period, GOAS delivered a respectable +2.4% return.
As 2026 gets underway, a more dramatic shift may be developing. In 2025, technology and growth outperformed the broader market (i.e., the Nasdaq beat the S&P 500, finishing up +20.8%), while small-capitalization stocks lagged, ending the year up +12.7%. 3 That dynamic has changed meaningfully during the first three weeks of 2026.
As of the close on January 23, 2026, the “Magnificent 7” group was down -3.6% from its October 29, 2025, high and -0.5% year-to-date. In contrast, small-capitalization equities and commodities are significantly outperforming, up +7.6% and +7.4% year-to-date, respectively. GOAS is aligned with these prevailing conditions and is up +5.3% through January 23, 2026.
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In short, our diversified, risk-managed approach delivered solid double-digit returns in 2025 while avoiding major drawdowns during early-year volatility. Today, we are positioned for meaningful economic growth in the U.S. and much of the rest of the world. We believe conditions now favor cyclical outperformance and a broadening of equity participation. That means overweight exposure to commodities and smaller-capitalization equities. As the charts below indicate, this phase may only persist through the first half of 2026. For now, that is the prevailing condition regardless of how long it lasts. We are prepared to adjust as conditions evolve.
Economic Growth
Hedgeye’s real GDP projection model shows a reacceleration in growth gaining significant momentum in the first quarter and continuing through much of the second quarter. As growth has accelerated, cyclical equities and commodities have outperformed. While this acceleration continues, we expect risk assets to continue performing well.
Figure 1 – GDP Projections
We use two distinct models to forecast the YoY growth rate of Real GDP and the combination of the two allows us to develop both a highly accurate real-time assessment of near-term economic momentum, as well as a high-probability scenario for where growth is likely to trend over the NTM.
Intra-quarter, we employ a stochastic nowcasting framework that anchors on nonlinear interpolation to relay rate of change signals from the individual features of the dynamic factor model to the base rate. In out-quarters where high-frequency data has yet to be reported, we employ a Bayesian Inference process that adjusts each of the preceding forecasted base rates inversely and proportionally to changes in the base effects.
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All told, our US GDP nowcast model has an average absolute forecast error of 55bps and an 85% success rate in terms of accurately projecting the rate of change of GROWTH.
Economic growth is accelerating, which historically supports risk assets—particularly cyclical equities and commodities.
Inflation
Inflation expectations have been decelerating for several quarters, as evidenced by the five-year breakeven spread—often referred to as “the market’s” inflation forecast.
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Figure 2 -5-Year Breakeven
Hedgelye’s CPI model corroborates this trend, projecting continued disinflation through the second quarter of 2026, followed by only a modest seven-basis-point increase in the third quarter. Combined with accelerating growth, this backdrop is favorable for risk-taking.
We use two distinct models to forecast the YoY growth rate of Headline CPI and the combination of the two allows us to develop both a highly accurate real-time assessment of near-term inflation momentum, as well as a high-probability scenario for where inflation is likely to trend over the NTM.
Intra-quarter, we employ a stochastic nowcasting framework that anchors on nonlinear interpolation to relay rate of change signals from the individual features of the dynamic factor model to the base rate. In out-quarters where high-frequency data has yet to be reported, we employ a Bayesian inference process that adjusts each of the preceding forecasted base rates inversely and proportionally to changes in the base effects.
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All told, our US CPI newcast model has an average absolute forecast error of 36bps and an 85% success rate in terms of accurately projecting the rate of change of INFLATION.
A key driver of lower inflation has been the price of oil—one of the few major commodities not yet firmly in a bull market.
Figure 4 -US Crude Oil Spot
WTI). The chart shows a candlestick price history from 2018 to 2026. A red trendline is drawn across the chart, showing a general downward trend. The current price is $61.025 as of 06/30/19. The y-axis represents price in USD from 10.000 to 130.000. The x-axis shows time from 2018 to 2026. The chart includes technical indicators and a volume bar at the bottom.” width=”640″ height=”446″ loading=”lazy” srcset=”https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2026/2/4/542689-1770260573389652_origin.jpg?io=w640 640w,https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2026/2/4/542689-1770260573389652_origin.jpg?io=w480 480w,https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2026/2/4/542689-1770260573389652_origin.jpg?io=w320 320w,https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2026/2/4/542689-1770260573389652_origin.jpg?io=w240 240w” sizes=”(max-width: 767px) calc(100vw – 36px), (max-width: 1023px) calc(100vw – 180px), 552px”>
Inflation pressures remain contained, creating a favorable backdrop for risk-assets.
Broadening US Equity Market
While the broader macro environment—accelerating real growth alongside disinflation—is critical to the rally’s expansion, sector-level dynamics are also playing an important role. Mega-capitalization technology companies are now facing more difficult year-over-year comparisons, as cycle-peak artificial-intelligence capital expenditures may be behind us, pressuring both revenue growth and margins.
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The opposite is true for much of the rest of the market, particularly smaller-capitalization and cyclical businesses. With easier comparisons to last year, both revenues and margins are improving.
Hedgeye data show that while S&P 500 earnings are expected to continue growing, a greater share of that growth is coming from the “other 493” stocks.
Figure 5 – Earnings Projections
Market leadership is expanding beyond mega-cap technology, increasing opportunity across smaller and more cyclical companies.
Market Signals
Last quarter we wrote:
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Market internals also point to change beneath the surface. While large-cap indices hit new highs in the third quarter, participation was narrow—signs of enthusiasm were limited. In October, that pattern began to broaden as Buying Power improved and Selling Pressure eased. With Buying Power still stronger overall, we do not see a shift toward a risk-off environment. Instead, the data suggest equity markets are transitioning as investors respond to—and anticipate—changes in growth and inflation, opening the door for new leadership among sectors and styles.
That improvement and broadening has continued. Selling Pressure is receding, and Buying Power shows further signs of strengthening.
Figure 6
More granular market data look even better. Lowry’s writes:
While many investors and the financial media are focused on the cap-weighted price indexes, the Lowry Analysis is predominantly centered on the full market on an equal weighted basis, which is dominated by smaller stocks. The reason for this is simple: the greater the number of stocks participating in a market advance and displaying promising Demand trends, the more difficult it is for sellers to take control of the market. While such features do not make the market impervious to pullbacks, recent evidence continues to mount in favor of a broad and durable advance. Still, we would like to see these improvements reflected in our longer-term measures of market health to solidify our conviction in the bulls further.
In their most recent weekly report, Lowry’s emphasized the dramatic increase in the percentage of stocks within 2% of their 52-week highs.
Figure 7
Explaining the chart, Lowry’s wrote:
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One method to view how many stocks are carrying the performance load within the market is our measure of Demand intensity, or the Percent of OCO1 Stocks At or Within 2% of 52-Week Highs. This is one of the more sensitive indicators in our suite, and on January 15, it reached a one-year high of 33.36%. While this was an impressive development, the indicator moving above its multi-month range is perhaps even more important. It essentially reflects a change in character within demand intensity from good to great, as the OCO Index is dominated by smaller stocks. The more stocks that reach new highs, the stronger the market’s constitution ultimately becomes.
Market internals support the case for a broader, more durable advance.
Current Positioning
Our current portfolio remains balanced within an all-season framework but is more aggressive than when we last reported in October 2025. Since last quarter, we have increased exposure to U.S. small-capitalization equities, expanded global equity exposure—particularly in emerging markets—and added to precious metals and commodities. Fixed income and cash allocations declined from 28% to 16%.
Figure 8 – GOAS Allocation
This positioning maintains meaningful protection against inflation or market stress while remaining tilted toward growth. This balance—rooted in our all-season philosophy and adjusted for present conditions—reflects our core belief: don’t try to predict the future; position with prevailing conditions while diversifying to enable success across many possible futures.
The portfolio remains balanced but is intentionally tilted toward growth.
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As always, if you have any thoughts regarding the above ideas or your specific portfolio that you would like to discuss, please feel free to call us at 1-888-GREY-OWL.
Sincerely,
Grey Owl Capital Management
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Grey Owl Capital Management, LLC
This newsletter contains general information that is not suitable for everyone. The information contained herein should not be construed as personalized investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. There is no guarantee that the views and opinions expressed in this newsletter will come to pass. Investing in the stock market involves the potential for gains and the risk of losses and may not be suitable for all investors. Information presented herein is subject to change without notice and should not be considered as a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Any information prepared by any unaffiliated third party, whether linked to this newsletter or incorporated herein, is included for informational purposes only, and no representation is made as to the accuracy, timeliness, suitability, completeness, or relevance of that information.
The stocks we elect to highlight each quarter will not always be the highest performing stocks in the portfolio, but rather will have had some reported news or event of significance or are either new purchases or significant holdings (relative to position size) for which we choose to discuss our investment tactics. They do not necessarily represent all of the securities purchased, sold or recommended by the adviser, and the reader should not assume that investments in the securities identified and discussed were or will be profitable. A complete list of recommendations by Grey Owl Capital Management, LLC may be obtained by contacting the adviser at 1-888-473-9695.
Grey Owl Capital Management, LLC (“Grey Owl”) is a Virginia registered investment adviser with its principal place of business in the Commonwealth of Virginia. Grey Owl and its representatives are in compliance with the current notice filing requirements imposed upon registered investment advisers by those states in which Grey Owl maintains clients. Grey Owl may only transact business in those states in which it is notice filed or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from notice filing requirements. This newsletter is limited to the dissemination of general information pertaining to its investment advisory services. Any subsequent, direct communication by Grey Owl with a prospective client shall be conducted by a representative that is either registered or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration in the state where the prospective client resides. For information pertaining to the registration status of Grey Owl, please contact Grey Owl or refer to the Investment Adviser Public Disclosure web site ( www.adviserinfo.sec.gov ).
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For additional information about Grey Owl, including fees and services, send for our disclosure statement as set forth on Form ADV using the contact information herein. Please read the disclosure statement carefully before you invest or send money.
Site neighbours land where another developer is planning 120 homes
Belinda Ryan and Local Democracy Reporter
16:00, 25 Feb 2026
An outline application has been submitted for 85 homes on land south of Sandbach Road, Congleton (Image: FPCR Environment & Design)
Plans have been submitted for up to 85 homes in the open countryside at Congleton on fields next to land where 120 dwellings are also proposed.
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Nightingale Land has applied for outline permission to bulldoze existing farm outbuildings on the site south of Sandbach Road and build up to 85 homes, including 30 per cent affordable.
It is next to land which is the subject of a separate planning application from Richborough Estates for up to 120 homes.
The Richborough application has not yet been determined by the council.
A planning statement submitted by Lane Town Planning on behalf of the Nightingale Land application, states: “The scheme could accommodate a range of house sizes and types in accordance with the council’s strategic housing market assessment.”
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It adds that, as a direct consequence of the pre-application consultation exercises, the proposed development has been reduced from 100 homes to 85 homes.
Access to the new site is proposed from Sandbach Road by way of a priority junction.
The document says the scheme would include significant areas of public open space and the retention and enhancement of natural habitat around the existing hedgerow areas as well as orchard tree planting.
It would also include an equipped children’s play area, trim trails and play features along walking routes within green corridors.
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Existing public rights of way crossing the site would also be retained and there would be new walking paths around the site.
The planning document states: “Market dwellings will be delivered by private house builders, with affordable housing either provided by, or in partnership with, a registered provider.
“Following a grant of consent, the site would be marketed immediately and sold as expeditiously as possible to one or more house builders who would submit the requisite reserved matters application(s).”
It adds it is anticipated the development of the site would take around 3.3 years to complete.
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At the time of writing there has been one objection posted on the planning portal on Cheshire East Council’s website.
The objector says: “This proposal follows a recent application for 120 houses in the same vicinity, which would result in a cumulative total of approximately 200 new dwellings.
“If approved, this would have severe adverse impacts on local traffic, biodiversity, green infrastructure, and the character of the area.”
Coupang Inc.’s shares traded near $18.59 on February 24, 2026, down modestly amid investor caution over potential regulatory scrutiny in Korea and the United States, as well as costs from its Taiwan expansion, with the e-commerce giant set to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on February 26.
Coupang
As of February 24, 2026, Coupang (NYSE: CPNG) closed at $18.59, up 0.05% on the day after fluctuating in a range of $17.66 to $18.74 with volume of approximately 26.1 million shares. The stock has declined about 5-6% over the past week and remains well below 2025 highs near $34, reflecting a year-to-date pullback in 2026. Market capitalization hovers around $33-34 billion.
The recent pressure stems from broader concerns in the Korean internet sector and U.S. political dynamics. On February 24, shares slipped as investors weighed whether Coupang could become a bargaining chip in potential trade talks, following interim CEO Harold Rogers’ closed-door deposition before the U.S. House Judiciary Committee on February 23. Regulatory investigations tied to a November 2025 data breach have also weighed on sentiment, contributing to share weakness.
Coupang is scheduled to release Q4 2025 earnings after market close on February 26, with a conference call at 5:30 p.m. ET. The Zacks consensus estimates revenue of $9.14 billion—up 14.78% year-over-year—while projecting EPS of $0.02, down 50% from the year-ago quarter. The earnings mark has declined slightly in recent weeks, signaling caution around profitability pressures from international growth and the data breach fallout.
The company has expanded aggressively into Taiwan, with costs contributing to margin compression in recent periods. Analysts note that while revenue growth remains solid—driven by core South Korean operations, Rocket Delivery, and e-commerce momentum—profitability faces headwinds from these investments. Q3 2025 results showed EPS of $0.05 on $9.3 billion in revenue, beating expectations, but Q4 guidance and commentary will be key to assessing the Taiwan trajectory.
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On the analyst front, views are mixed. UBS lowered its price target to $25 from $35 on February 19, 2026, while maintaining a Buy rating, citing regulatory scrutiny as a drag. Bernstein initiated coverage on February 5 with an Underperform rating and $17 target, reflecting caution in the Korean internet space. Consensus among 11 analysts leans Hold to Moderate Buy, with average 12-month price targets around $27.70—implying about 49% upside from current levels. High targets reach $40, low ends around $17.
Coupang’s core business benefits from strong market position in South Korea, with high customer loyalty through fast delivery and membership perks. The company continues investing in logistics, private-label products, and international markets to diversify beyond domestic reliance. Recent small-business initiatives, such as helping Pennsylvania companies expand globally via Coupang, highlight efforts to strengthen ecosystem ties.
Risks include competitive intensity from local and global players, potential trade policy impacts, and execution on profitability amid expansion costs. The data breach investigations add uncertainty, though management has emphasized containment and customer protection.
The February 26 earnings release will provide critical updates on revenue trends, margin progress, Taiwan performance, and 2026 guidance. Positive surprises on subscriber growth or cost controls could spark a rebound; signs of prolonged pressure might extend downside.
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Coupang remains a key player in Asian e-commerce, with its logistics network and customer-centric model offering long-term potential. As the company navigates regulatory and expansion challenges, investor focus will center on proving sustainable profitability in 2026.
Backers aim to create ‘high-quality’ hub for ‘local grassroots sport’
Paul Faulkner and Local Democracy Reporter
16:00, 25 Feb 2026
Longridge Town FC’s ground(Image: Levitt Bernstein, via Preston City Council planning portal)
More than 200 homes and a raft of new and upgraded sports facilities could be created on the outskirts of Preston as part of a major residential and leisure development.
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The proposed Longridge Sports Village scheme would provide a “high-quality” hub for “local grassroots sport”, according to the organisations behind it.
Provision for football, gymnastics, padel and informal runs would sit alongside up to 220 new dwellings, all which would fall into the discounted ‘affordable homes’ category. More than 40 of the proposed properties are flats designed specifically for older people.
A 12-hectare site to the north west of the town has been earmarked for the project, adjacent to Longridge Town Football Club and Longridge Cricket Club.
Plans for the site – bounded by Inglewhite Road and Chipping Lane – first emerged last year when a public consultation was carried out into an initial blueprint.
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Now, Longridge-based Steel Work Construction and Preston social housing provider Community Gateway Association have submitted an outline proposal to Preston City Council, seeking planning permission for the project – which they say will plug “a recognised deficit in local sports provision”.
Their joint application sets out the specifics of the sporting plans, which include the creation of a seven-a-side 3G football pitch to serve the needs of Longridge Town’s junior club and the 300 players that make up its 20 teams. The facility would, it is claimed, put an end to the weather-related cancellations that beset the junior fixtures during winter – and would also be used by the senior team for training.
The existing grass pitch for the first team would be retained, with the clubhouse extended and improvements made for spectators.
Elsewhere, four covered padel courts are planned – for which there was “strong local support” expressed in last year’s public consultation, the application states.
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Meanwhile a permanent, purpose-built base is proposed for Longridge Gymnastics Club, which is currently forced to operate from rented facilities four miles out of town in Ribbleton.
A 1.5km “recreational running and walking route” also forms part of the plans – a facility that would be “integrated into the site’s network of green spaces for the benefit of the whole community”.
The plot sits in the open countryside, making it a location that would not usually be deemed suitable for significant development. However, the planning statement accompanying the sports village proposal stresses that it is not a “remote, isolated landscape”.
It adds that the surrounding area has become “an established focus for the town’s recent residential growth”, with planning permissions granted for new housing along Halfpenny Lane, Inglewhite Road, and Chipping Lane – making the sports village site “a logical and sustainable extension of the built-up area, rather than an intrusion into undeveloped countryside”.
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Meanwhile, an odour assessment undertaken on behalf of the applicants concluded there was only a “slight and not significant” risk of smells from the nearby pig farming operation at Belmont Farm affecting future residents and leisure users.
The proximity of the piggery was highlighted by the city council last year when it considered – and decided against – requiring an environmental impact assessment as part of the planning application for the sports village.
The assessment found that the southernmost parts of the site would be most affected by odours – and so that zone will not be used for residential development.
WTI
