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Grey Owl Capital Management Q4 2025 Client Letter

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Grey Owl Capital Management Q4 2025 Client Letter

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Expansion create opportunity. – Anonymous


Dear Client,

The Grey Owl All-Season Strategy’s objectives are to minimize drawdowns, outperform short-term bonds by several hundred basis points each year (i.e., beat “cash”), and participate meaningfully in risk-on rallies. For the full year 2025, GOAS returned +11.4% and met each of these objectives.

We are particularly pleased with the strategy’s 2025 performance given how the year began. While the popular “Magnificent 7 (MAGS)” group of stocks declined roughly -30% from its December 17, 2024 peak to the April 8, 2025 low 1 , the Grey Owl All-Season (GOAS) portfolio was down less than -3% at its worst point in early April. The rebound that followed was rapid, and the year ultimately proved strong for most risk assets. GOAS managed risk during the drawdown and then repositioned to participate as conditions turned risk-on.

A few specifics below on the present environment and our current positioning, but first a more detailed review of the performance of the “primary” asset classes. 2

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For the full year 2025, gold gained +63.7%, global equities rose +22.4%, U.S. equities followed closely at +17.7%, commodities increased 5.9%, and long-dated U.S. Treasury bonds returned +4.3%.

During the fourth quarter of 2025, precious metals continued to shine, with gold up another +11.5%. U.S. equities gained +2.7%, while global equities performed slightly better at +3.3%. Commodities were essentially flat, up +0.4%, and long-dated U.S. Treasury bonds declined -1.0%. Over this period, GOAS delivered a respectable +2.4% return.

As 2026 gets underway, a more dramatic shift may be developing. In 2025, technology and growth outperformed the broader market (i.e., the Nasdaq beat the S&P 500, finishing up +20.8%), while small-capitalization stocks lagged, ending the year up +12.7%. 3 That dynamic has changed meaningfully during the first three weeks of 2026.

As of the close on January 23, 2026, the “Magnificent 7” group was down -3.6% from its October 29, 2025, high and -0.5% year-to-date. In contrast, small-capitalization equities and commodities are significantly outperforming, up +7.6% and +7.4% year-to-date, respectively. GOAS is aligned with these prevailing conditions and is up +5.3% through January 23, 2026.

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In short, our diversified, risk-managed approach delivered solid double-digit returns in 2025 while avoiding major drawdowns during early-year volatility. Today, we are positioned for meaningful economic growth in the U.S. and much of the rest of the world. We believe conditions now favor cyclical outperformance and a broadening of equity participation. That means overweight exposure to commodities and smaller-capitalization equities. As the charts below indicate, this phase may only persist through the first half of 2026. For now, that is the prevailing condition regardless of how long it lasts. We are prepared to adjust as conditions evolve.

Economic Growth

Hedgeye’s real GDP projection model shows a reacceleration in growth gaining significant momentum in the first quarter and continuing through much of the second quarter. As growth has accelerated, cyclical equities and commodities have outperformed. While this acceleration continues, we expect risk assets to continue performing well.

Figure 1 – GDP Projections

Figure 1: US Real GDP YoY Projections chart from Hedgeye. The chart shows projected GDP growth rates for the United States from Q3 2022 to Q2 2026. The y-axis represents the growth rate in percentage, ranging from 0.0% to 4.0%. The x-axis shows quarters from Q3 2022 to Q2 2026. The chart includes several data series: Real GDP YoY (black bars), Hedgeye Estimates - Nowcast Model (blue line), Hedgeye Estimates - Enhanced Comparative Base Effects Model (green line), Consensus Estimates (yellow bars), and Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model (red line). The chart shows a peak in Q4 2023 at 3.39% and a subsequent decline to 2.02% in Q4 2024, followed by a recovery to 3.21% in Q2 2025 and 3.27% in Q2 2026. A red arrow points to the 2.02% projection for Q4 2024. A green arrow points to the 3.27% projection for Q2 2026. A blue arrow points to the 2.48% projection for Q2 2026. A text box on the right explains the forecasting models used by Hedgeye.

We use two distinct models to forecast the YoY growth rate of Real GDP and the combination of the two allows us to develop both a highly accurate real-time assessment of near-term economic momentum, as well as a high-probability scenario for where growth is likely to trend over the NTM.

Intra-quarter, we employ a stochastic nowcasting framework that anchors on nonlinear interpolation to relay rate of change signals from the individual features of the dynamic factor model to the base rate. In out-quarters where high-frequency data has yet to be reported, we employ a Bayesian Inference process that adjusts each of the preceding forecasted base rates inversely and proportionally to changes in the base effects.

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All told, our US GDP nowcast model has an average absolute forecast error of 55bps and an 85% success rate in terms of accurately projecting the rate of change of GROWTH.

Data Source: BLS, BEA, Atlanta Fed, FactSet© Hedgeye Risk Management LLC 15

Economic growth is accelerating, which historically supports risk assets—particularly cyclical equities and commodities.

Inflation

Inflation expectations have been decelerating for several quarters, as evidenced by the five-year breakeven spread—often referred to as “the market’s” inflation forecast.

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Figure 2 -5-Year Breakeven

Figure 2: 5-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate chart from TradingView. The chart shows the 5-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate for the 10-Year Treasury Note from November 2022 to October 2026. The y-axis represents the inflation rate in percentage, ranging from 2.1% to 2.65%. The x-axis shows months from Nov 2022 to Oct 2026. The chart features a blue line representing the inflation rate, which fluctuates between 2.2% and 2.6% until early 2024, then drops sharply to a low of 2.2% in May 2024. It recovers to a peak of 2.55% in August 2024 and then trends downward to a low of 2.4% in October 2026. A red arrow points to the 2.4% value on the y-axis for October 2026. The chart is titled '5-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate - 10 - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis'.

Hedgelye’s CPI model corroborates this trend, projecting continued disinflation through the second quarter of 2026, followed by only a modest seven-basis-point increase in the third quarter. Combined with accelerating growth, this backdrop is favorable for risk-taking.

Figure 3 – Inflation Projections

US Headline CPI YoY Projections chart from Hedgeye. The chart shows a bar graph of inflation projections from 3Q22 to 3Q26. The y-axis represents the percentage change from 0.0% to 8.0%. The bars are color-coded: black for Headline CPI YoY, blue for Hedgelye Estimates - Newcast Model, orange for Hedgelye Estimates - Comparative Base Effects Model, and yellow for Consensus Estimates. The projections show a steady decline from 8.33% in 3Q22 to 2.88% in 3Q25, followed by a slight increase to 2.91% in 4Q25A. A text box on the right explains the models used and their accuracy.

Data Source: BLS, BEA, Atlanta Fed, FactSet © Hedgeye Risk Management LLC 18

We use two distinct models to forecast the YoY growth rate of Headline CPI and the combination of the two allows us to develop both a highly accurate real-time assessment of near-term inflation momentum, as well as a high-probability scenario for where inflation is likely to trend over the NTM.

Intra-quarter, we employ a stochastic nowcasting framework that anchors on nonlinear interpolation to relay rate of change signals from the individual features of the dynamic factor model to the base rate. In out-quarters where high-frequency data has yet to be reported, we employ a Bayesian inference process that adjusts each of the preceding forecasted base rates inversely and proportionally to changes in the base effects.

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All told, our US CPI newcast model has an average absolute forecast error of 36bps and an 85% success rate in terms of accurately projecting the rate of change of INFLATION.

A key driver of lower inflation has been the price of oil—one of the few major commodities not yet firmly in a bull market.

Figure 4 -US Crude Oil Spot

TradingView chart for West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil (<a href=WTI). The chart shows a candlestick price history from 2018 to 2026. A red trendline is drawn across the chart, showing a general downward trend. The current price is $61.025 as of 06/30/19. The y-axis represents price in USD from 10.000 to 130.000. The x-axis shows time from 2018 to 2026. The chart includes technical indicators and a volume bar at the bottom.” width=”640″ height=”446″ loading=”lazy” srcset=”https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2026/2/4/542689-1770260573389652_origin.jpg?io=w640 640w,https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2026/2/4/542689-1770260573389652_origin.jpg?io=w480 480w,https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2026/2/4/542689-1770260573389652_origin.jpg?io=w320 320w,https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2026/2/4/542689-1770260573389652_origin.jpg?io=w240 240w” sizes=”(max-width: 767px) calc(100vw – 36px), (max-width: 1023px) calc(100vw – 180px), 552px”>

Inflation pressures remain contained, creating a favorable backdrop for risk-assets.

Broadening US Equity Market

While the broader macro environment—accelerating real growth alongside disinflation—is critical to the rally’s expansion, sector-level dynamics are also playing an important role. Mega-capitalization technology companies are now facing more difficult year-over-year comparisons, as cycle-peak artificial-intelligence capital expenditures may be behind us, pressuring both revenue growth and margins.

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The opposite is true for much of the rest of the market, particularly smaller-capitalization and cyclical businesses. With easier comparisons to last year, both revenues and margins are improving.

Hedgeye data show that while S&P 500 earnings are expected to continue growing, a greater share of that growth is coming from the “other 493” stocks.

Figure 5 – Earnings Projections

Three bar charts showing earnings projections for SPX EPS, Mag 7 Net Income Growth, and S&P 493 (Ex-Mag 7) Net Income Growth from Sep-23 to Sep-26. The SPX EPS chart shows a steady increase from 4.1% to 15.1%. The Mag 7 chart shows a peak in Dec-23 (57%) followed by a decline to 14% in Sep-26. The S&P 493 chart shows a significant increase from -6% in Sep-23 to 13% in Jun-26, with a green trend line indicating upward momentum.

Market leadership is expanding beyond mega-cap technology, increasing opportunity across smaller and more cyclical companies.

Market Signals

Last quarter we wrote:

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Market internals also point to change beneath the surface. While large-cap indices hit new highs in the third quarter, participation was narrow—signs of enthusiasm were limited. In October, that pattern began to broaden as Buying Power improved and Selling Pressure eased. With Buying Power still stronger overall, we do not see a shift toward a risk-off environment. Instead, the data suggest equity markets are transitioning as investors respond to—and anticipate—changes in growth and inflation, opening the door for new leadership among sectors and styles.

That improvement and broadening has continued. Selling Pressure is receding, and Buying Power shows further signs of strengthening.

Figure 6

A multi-panel line chart titled 'BUYING POWER VS. SELLING PRESSURE NYSE' from CFRA LOWRY Research. The chart displays four indices over time from February 2025 to January 2026. The top panel shows the DJ Industrials index (<span>49384.01</span>) and a 200-DMA (45030.90). The middle panel shows the NYSE Buying Power Index (<span>192.00</span>) and the Selling Pressure Index (153.00). The bottom panel shows the NYSE Short Term Index (95.00). The Selling Pressure Index is highlighted with a red line and a downward arrow, indicating a downward trend. The Buying Power Index is shown with a green arrow pointing up, indicating an upward trend. The chart is dated Jan 22, 2026.

More granular market data look even better. Lowry’s writes:

While many investors and the financial media are focused on the cap-weighted price indexes, the Lowry Analysis is predominantly centered on the full market on an equal weighted basis, which is dominated by smaller stocks. The reason for this is simple: the greater the number of stocks participating in a market advance and displaying promising Demand trends, the more difficult it is for sellers to take control of the market. While such features do not make the market impervious to pullbacks, recent evidence continues to mount in favor of a broad and durable advance. Still, we would like to see these improvements reflected in our longer-term measures of market health to solidify our conviction in the bulls further.

In their most recent weekly report, Lowry’s emphasized the dramatic increase in the percentage of stocks within 2% of their 52-week highs.

Figure 7

A three-panel line chart from CFRA LOWRY Research titled 'PERCENT OF OCO STOCKS NEAR 52-WK HIGHS'. The top panel shows the S & P 500 INDEX (<span>6913.35</span>) from Jan 22, 2026, to Jan 22, 2026, with a green arrow pointing to a peak of 6912. The middle panel shows the '% OF OCO STOCKS AT OR WITHIN 2% OF 52 WEEK HIGHS (31.17)' with a green arrow pointing to a peak of 36. The bottom panel shows the '% OF OCO STOCKS 20% OR MORE BELOW 52 WEEK HIGHS (<span>INVERTED</span>) (-26.19)'. The x-axis represents time from 02/25 to 01/26.

Explaining the chart, Lowry’s wrote:

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One method to view how many stocks are carrying the performance load within the market is our measure of Demand intensity, or the Percent of OCO1 Stocks At or Within 2% of 52-Week Highs. This is one of the more sensitive indicators in our suite, and on January 15, it reached a one-year high of 33.36%. While this was an impressive development, the indicator moving above its multi-month range is perhaps even more important. It essentially reflects a change in character within demand intensity from good to great, as the OCO Index is dominated by smaller stocks. The more stocks that reach new highs, the stronger the market’s constitution ultimately becomes.

Market internals support the case for a broader, more durable advance.

Current Positioning

Our current portfolio remains balanced within an all-season framework but is more aggressive than when we last reported in October 2025. Since last quarter, we have increased exposure to U.S. small-capitalization equities, expanded global equity exposure—particularly in emerging markets—and added to precious metals and commodities. Fixed income and cash allocations declined from 28% to 16%.

Figure 8 – GOAS Allocation

Pie chart titled 'GOAS Allocations - January 2026' showing the distribution of portfolio allocations across six categories: US Equities (37.00%), Global Equities (20.05%), Commodities (15.94%), Fixed Income & Cash (10.21%), Gold & Precious Metals (9.98%), and Other (6.83%).

This positioning maintains meaningful protection against inflation or market stress while remaining tilted toward growth. This balance—rooted in our all-season philosophy and adjusted for present conditions—reflects our core belief: don’t try to predict the future; position with prevailing conditions while diversifying to enable success across many possible futures.

The portfolio remains balanced but is intentionally tilted toward growth.

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As always, if you have any thoughts regarding the above ideas or your specific portfolio that you would like to discuss, please feel free to call us at 1-888-GREY-OWL.

Sincerely,

Grey Owl Capital Management


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Grey Owl Capital Management, LLC

This newsletter contains general information that is not suitable for everyone. The information contained herein should not be construed as personalized investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. There is no guarantee that the views and opinions expressed in this newsletter will come to pass. Investing in the stock market involves the potential for gains and the risk of losses and may not be suitable for all investors. Information presented herein is subject to change without notice and should not be considered as a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Any information prepared by any unaffiliated third party, whether linked to this newsletter or incorporated herein, is included for informational purposes only, and no representation is made as to the accuracy, timeliness, suitability, completeness, or relevance of that information.

The stocks we elect to highlight each quarter will not always be the highest performing stocks in the portfolio, but rather will have had some reported news or event of significance or are either new purchases or significant holdings (relative to position size) for which we choose to discuss our investment tactics. They do not necessarily represent all of the securities purchased, sold or recommended by the adviser, and the reader should not assume that investments in the securities identified and discussed were or will be profitable. A complete list of recommendations by Grey Owl Capital Management, LLC may be obtained by contacting the adviser at 1-888-473-9695.

Grey Owl Capital Management, LLC (“Grey Owl”) is a Virginia registered investment adviser with its principal place of business in the Commonwealth of Virginia. Grey Owl and its representatives are in compliance with the current notice filing requirements imposed upon registered investment advisers by those states in which Grey Owl maintains clients. Grey Owl may only transact business in those states in which it is notice filed or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from notice filing requirements. This newsletter is limited to the dissemination of general information pertaining to its investment advisory services. Any subsequent, direct communication by Grey Owl with a prospective client shall be conducted by a representative that is either registered or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration in the state where the prospective client resides. For information pertaining to the registration status of Grey Owl, please contact Grey Owl or refer to the Investment Adviser Public Disclosure web site ( www.adviserinfo.sec.gov ).

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For additional information about Grey Owl, including fees and services, send for our disclosure statement as set forth on Form ADV using the contact information herein. Please read the disclosure statement carefully before you invest or send money.

Disclosure:


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Editor’s Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.

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Any agreement would be linked to South Crofty providing a supply of tin to the US

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Drilling at South Crofty mine(Image: Cornish Metals)

The company behind a major project to revive a historic Cornish tin mine says it could potentially receive financing support from the US government. Cornish Metals, which floated on AIM in December, announced on Thursday it had received a non-binding letter of interest from the Export-Import Bank of the United States (EXIM) – the country’s official export credit agency.

Cornish Metals is looking to reopen South Crofty – a tin and copper mine near the village of Pool. The mine operated for more than 400 years but was shut in 1998 due to lack of investment and falling metal prices. Cornish Metals acquired the mine in 2016 and said last year it was optimistic that commercial extraction could begin by mid-2028.

It is understood the letter of interest outlines EXIM’s capacity to consider up to US$225m in financing. South Crofty may also qualify for special consideration under the agency’s China and Transformational Exports Program, Cornish Metals said.

Potential financing support is linked to South Crofty providing a “responsible supply” of tin concentrate to the US, to build more resilient supply chains.

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Don Turvey, chief executive of Cornish Metals, said: “This Letter of Interest from EXIM is a testament to the quality and strategic importance of South Crofty and its potential to become the first new tin producer in the western world.

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“Against a backdrop of strong tin prices supported by attractive market dynamics and the substantial progress being made on site, we are encouraged by the momentum building across the business as we work towards bringing South Crofty back into production.”

Business Live understands the letter of interest does not constitute a financing commitment.

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The project received the backing of the UK government in 2025 with Chancellor Rachel Reeves committing to invest £29m in the scheme.

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“The results are really exciting,” Bancel told FOX Business’ “Mornings with Maria.”

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“As you see, this is very meaningful for patients, and we are very excited because this year we should get the Phase 3 study result for that medicine and, hopefully, if it’s positive, we should be able to file very quickly with the FDA to get this to the American people to save them from their disease.”

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Merck's Kertruda

Keytruda is a prescription medicine used to treat a type of skin cancer called melanoma. (Merck )

Bancel said the individualized approach of intismeran autogene (formerly known as mRNA-4157) allows Moderna to design a custom treatment for each patient based on their specific tumor mutations, enabling the immune system to more precisely target cancer cells.

“If you and I were diagnosed the same day by the same doctor with skin cancer, Moderna would make a different medicine for your cancer and a different medicine for mine,” he told anchor Maria Bartiromo, adding the personalized vaccine can be manufactured in roughly 30 days.

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Bancel said the treatment showed no added safety risks or side effects compared with Keytruda alone.

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“You see a huge benefit for the patients and the families with no downside of side effects, so that’s why it’s also so exciting,” he said.

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Beyond melanoma, Moderna’s collaboration with Merck is expanding, with nine ongoing studies examining the personalized mRNA therapy in cancers such as kidney, bladder and gastric cancer, among others.

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The company posted consolidated revenue of $113.8 billion for the quarter ended Dec. 31, 2025, up 18% from $96.5 billion a year earlier (or 17% in constant currency). Earnings per share reached $2.82, a 31% increase, beating analyst estimates of $2.63 EPS and $111.3 billion in revenue, according to FactSet consensus.

For the full year, Alphabet generated $402.8 billion in revenue — up 15% from 2024 — marking the milestone first crossing of the $400 billion threshold. Net income rose 30% to approximately $34.5 billion for the quarter, with full-year figures reflecting strong profitability amid heavy AI investments.

CEO Sundar Pichai called it “a tremendous quarter for Alphabet,” highlighting the launch of Gemini 3 as a major milestone. “Annual revenues exceeded $400 billion for the first time,” he said on the earnings call. “We have great momentum. Our first-party models like Gemini now process over 10 billion tokens per minute via direct API use by customers, and the Gemini App has grown to over 750 million monthly active users.”

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Search & other revenue accelerated with 17% growth, driven by AI enhancements expanding usage. YouTube crossed $60 billion in annual revenue across ads and subscriptions, with paid subscriptions across consumer services topping 325 million, led by Google One and YouTube Premium. Google Cloud revenue surged 48% to $17.7 billion in Q4, ending 2025 at an annual run rate over $70 billion, propelled by enterprise AI infrastructure, solutions and core GCP products.

The results underscore Alphabet’s dominance in the AI race. Operating income rose 16% to reflect a 31.6% margin, despite a $2.1 billion employee compensation charge for Waymo. Operating cash flow hit a record $52.4 billion in Q4.

Investors reacted mixed to the report. Shares initially rose on the beat but whipsawed after-hours as Alphabet guided to massive 2026 capital expenditures of $175 billion to $185 billion — nearly double 2025’s $91.4 billion — to scale AI compute and infrastructure. CFO Anat Ashkenazi noted supply constraints ahead, with Pichai acknowledging the year would be “supply constrained” to meet demand.

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Analysts praised the acceleration but flagged risks from elevated spending. “They passed $400 billion of total revenues for the first time, and announced plans to spend around $180 billion in 2026 to increase their chances to continue these colossal totals,” said one analyst.
Google Services revenue climbed 14% to $95.9 billion, led by Search (17%), subscriptions/devices (17%) and YouTube ads (9%). The cloud segment’s 30.1% operating margin (up from 17.5%) reflected efficiency gains amid explosive growth.

The earnings come as Alphabet navigates antitrust scrutiny, AI competition and regulatory pressures. Yet the results affirm its AI strategy: Gemini adoption (over 8 million paid enterprise seats at 2,800+ companies), a $240 billion cloud backlog, and AI driving “expansionary” Search moments.

Pichai emphasized broad impact: “We’re seeing our AI investments and infrastructure drive revenue and growth across the board.” He highlighted YouTube’s $60 billion milestone and consumer subscriptions’ strength.

Wall Street had anticipated solid growth but the scale of cloud acceleration and AI momentum exceeded forecasts. The $400 billion annual mark — up from $350 billion in 2024 — cements Alphabet’s position among the world’s most valuable companies, with market cap hovering near $4 trillion.

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The report also reflects broader tech trends: AI fueling ad dollars (via better targeting and performance), cloud as a high-margin growth engine, and subscriptions providing stable revenue.

Looking ahead, 2026 CapEx plans underscore commitment to AI leadership despite costs. Pichai noted challenges in supply but confidence in opportunities.

For investors, the beat reinforces Alphabet’s resilience. Shares traded volatile post-earnings, but long-term bulls point to AI tailwinds outweighing near-term spending pressures.
Alphabet’s 2025 performance — first $400 billion year — caps a transformative period, positioning the company to capitalize on AI’s next wave while defending core businesses.

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OneWater Marine Inc. (ONEW) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Novo Nordisk A/S (NOVO:CA) Q4 2025 Earnings Call February 4, 2026 7:00 AM EST

Company Participants

Michael Novod
Maziar Doustdar – President, CEO & Member of the Management Board
Ludovic Helfgott – Executive VP of Product & Portfolio Strategy and Member of Management Board
David Moore – Executive VP of US Operations & Member of Management Board
Martin Lange – EVP of R&D, Chief Scientific Officer and Member of the Management Board
Karsten Knudsen – Executive VP, CFO & Member of the Management Board

Conference Call Participants

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James Quigley – Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., Research Division
Sachin Jain – BofA Securities, Research Division
Richard Vosser – JPMorgan Chase & Co, Research Division
Peter Verdult – BNP Paribas, Research Division
Michael Nedelcovych – TD Cowen, Research Division
Harry Sephton – UBS Investment Bank, Research Division
Thibault Boutherin – Morgan Stanley, Research Division
Carsten Madsen – Danske Bank A/S, Research Division
Simon Baker – Rothschild & Co Redburn, Research Division

Presentation

Operator

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Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Q4 2025 Novo Nordisk Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today’s conference is being recorded.

I would now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker today, Michael Novod, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Michael Novod

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Thank you very much, and welcome to this Novo Nordisk Earnings Call for the Full Year of 2025. My name is Michael Novod. I’m the Head of Investor Relations at Novo Nordisk. With me today, I have CEO of Novo Nordisk, Mike Doustdar; EVP, Product and Portfolio Strategy, Ludovic Helfgott; EVP, U.S. Operations, Dave Moore; EVP, Research and Development and Chief Scientific Officer, Martin Holst Lange; and Chief Financial Officer, Karsten Munk Knudsen. All speakers will be available for the Q&A session.

Today’s call is being webcasted live, and a recording will be made available on our

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10 Must-Know Facts About Semrush in 2026

In 2026, digital marketing has shifted dramatically with AI search engines like Google AI Mode, ChatGPT, Gemini, and Perplexity reshaping how users discover content. Traditional SEO alone isn’t enough—brands must win visibility across “Search Everywhere,” including AI platforms. Enter Semrush, the leading platform that evolved into Semrush One to tackle this new era head-on. With massive databases (27.8 billion keywords, 43 trillion backlinks), AI-powered tools, and unified visibility tracking, Semrush remains a top choice for agencies, in-house teams, and serious marketers.

This 2000-word review dives into 10 essential things you must know about Semrush in 2026, blending features, pricing, pros/cons, comparisons, and real-user insights from sources like G2 (4.6/5), Capterra, and recent updates.

1. Semrush One: The Big 2026 Pivot to AI + Traditional SEO

Semrush launched Semrush One in late 2025/early 2026 as its flagship offering, combining classic SEO tools with the new AI Visibility Toolkit. This unified platform tracks performance not just in Google but across LLMs (ChatGPT, Perplexity, Gemini, Copilot). Key additions include:

  • AI Visibility Overview — Scores your brand’s presence in AI responses (0-100 scale) vs. competitors.
  • AI-Cited Media Finder & Media Monitoring — Spots where your brand gets mentioned in AI outputs.
  • Prompt Research & Persona-Based Prompt Generation — Helps craft queries that trigger favorable AI responses.
  • Query Fan-Out Analysis — Reveals search signals behind AI answers.

This addresses 2026 realities: AI Overviews now appear in ~15-17% of searches (up from 6% in early 2025), and AI content dominates top results more than ever. Semrush positions itself as the first true “Search Everywhere Optimization” solution.

2. Massive Data Scale Gives It an Edge

Semrush boasts one of the largest databases:

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  • 27.8 billion keywords
  • 43 trillion backlinks
  • Daily rank tracking for millions of domains

This powers accurate keyword research, backlink gap analysis, and competitive intel. In 2026 tests, users praise its depth for enterprise needs, though accuracy varies by niche (strong for Google, limited non-Google data).

3. Core Features Still Dominate Traditional SEO

Beyond AI, Semrush retains powerhouse classics:

  • Keyword Research — Intent mapping, clustering, SERP features.
  • Site Audit — Technical SEO fixes, Core Web Vitals.
  • Position Tracking — Daily updates, AI Overview monitoring.
  • Backlink Analytics — Gap tool, toxic link detection.
  • Content Marketing — Topic Research, SEO Writing Assistant.
  • Competitive Analysis — Traffic & Market, EyeOn for brand monitoring.
  • PPC & Social — Ad research, social posting.

The all-in-one suite covers SEO, PPC, content, PR, and social—ideal for full-funnel teams.

4. 2026 Pricing: Semrush One vs. Classic Plans

Semrush updated pricing for Semrush One (includes AI tools):

  • Starter: ~$165-199/mo (billed annually) — Basic limits, good for beginners.
  • Pro+: ~$248-299/mo — Scaling brands, more projects/keywords.
  • Advanced: ~$455-549/mo — Enterprise features, unlimited-ish limits.

Classic SEO Toolkit remains cheaper (Pro ~$139.95/mo), but lacks full AI Visibility. Annual billing saves 15-20%. Add-ons (extra users, API) add costs. Free trial available; limited free version for basic checks.

5. Pros: Why Marketers Love Semrush in 2026

  • Comprehensive & AI-Forward — Best for adapting to AI search; tracks brand in LLMs.
  • User-Friendly — Intuitive dashboards, great reporting.
  • Versatile — Suits agencies, e-commerce, SaaS, local businesses.
  • High Ratings — 4.6/5 on G2/Capterra; praised for insights & support.
  • Regular Updates — Frequent releases (e.g., persona prompts, Copilot tracking in Jan 2026).

Users report strong ROI: better rankings, traffic growth, and AI citation wins.

6. Cons: Where Semrush Falls Short

  • Pricey — Mid/high tiers expensive for solopreneurs.
  • One User/Plan — Extra seats cost more; agencies pay up.
  • Google-Centric — Limited non-Google data vs. some rivals.
  • Learning Curve — Feature overload for beginners.
  • Data Accuracy — Occasionally over/underestimates vs. GSC.

7. Semrush vs. Ahrefs in 2026: Head-to-Head

Ahrefs excels in backlinks (cleaner index) and simplicity; Semrush wins for breadth (AI, PPC, content, social). In 2026:

  • Keyword research: Semrush edges with intent/clustering.
  • Backlinks: Ahrefs often more accurate.
  • AI/Search Everywhere: Semrush dominates.
  • Pricing: Ahrefs cheaper entry; Semrush better value mid-tier+.

Choose Semrush for full marketing; Ahrefs for pure link/SEO focus.

8. Latest 2026 Updates & Innovations

Semrush rolled out:

  • Enterprise AI Optimization: Persona prompts, forecasting, Copilot tracking.
  • ChatGPT App integration for direct data access.
  • Query Fan-Out & Content Audit enhancements.

These keep Semrush ahead in AI SEO trends (e.g., complex queries up, CTR drops).

9. Who Should Use Semrush in 2026?

  • Agencies & teams needing all-in-one.
  • Brands fighting AI visibility loss.
  • E-commerce/SaaS optimizing multi-channel.
  • Not ideal for budget solopreneurs (try free alternatives first).

10. Final Verdict: Still a Top Tool?

Semrush in 2026 is stronger than ever—adapting to AI while retaining SEO dominance. If you’re serious about visibility across search (Google + AI), it’s worth the investment. Start with a trial to test AI tools.

Semrush drives real results in a changing landscape. Pair it with quality content for maximum impact.

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