Business
How The Middle East Crisis Ripples Across Thailand
The intensifying conflicts in the Middle East, especially near the Strait of Hormuz and the broader implications for regional stability, are reverberating worldwide. Although geographically distant, Thailand is increasingly experiencing the far-reaching impacts of this unrest. The crisis has brought a challenging dynamic to Thailand’s crucial tourism recovery efforts. The Thai government, under the leadership of Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, is addressing the situation as a significant economic threat, demonstrated by the establishment of an Economic War Room.
The Energy Squeeze: The Strait of Hormuz Chokepoint
Thailand’s primary vulnerability is its deep reliance on imported energy. Over 50% of Thailand’s crude oil imports originate from the Middle East. The potential for the total closure of the Strait of Hormuz—the maritime artery for roughly 20% of the world’s petroleum and 25% of LNG—remains the single biggest “black swan” risk facing the Thai economy.
Thailand is particularly affected by rising oil prices, as indicated by Nomura’s analysis. The country has the highest net oil imports in Asia, accounting for 4.7% of its GDP. Consequently, a 10% increase in oil prices can lead to a deterioration in the current account by approximately 0.5 percentage points of GDP according to a CNBC report.
- Fuel Prices and the Inflation Anchor: While global oil benchmarks had previously trended downward, a prolonged blockade would trigger an existential price spike. The Thai Ministry of Energy has identified Wednesday, March 4, 2026, as a potential critical inflection point. If global diesel prices breach $100 per barrel, the government’s ability to manage domestic retail prices via the Oil Fuel Fund will be severely compromised.
- Supply Contingencies: To brace for immediate shocks, Thailand maintains approximately 60 to 61 days of oil reserves. The government has already instructed the suspension of oil exports and ordered coal-fired and hydroelectric plants to run at maximum capacity to conserve natural gas.
Logistics, Exports, and the Shipping Cost Ripple
Thailand’s outward-facing economy is being throttled by the disruption of critical maritime corridors. The “collateral damage” is evident in the form of spiraling logistical costs. This surge in expenses count strain businesses reliant on exports, diminishing their competitiveness in global markets. Additionally, delays in shipping may cause supply chain bottlenecks, further exacerbating the economic strain. As a result, policymakers are under pressure to seek alternative trade routes and bolster domestic industries to mitigate the impact of these disruptions.
- Freight Rates and Surcharges: The cost of shipping goods from Thailand to Europe and parts of the Middle East has surged. Major Thai export categories—including automotive parts, machinery, and canned food products—are bearing the brunt of these non-negotiable increases.
- Financial Relief and Trade Pivots: In response, the Export-Import Bank of Thailand (EXIM Bank) launched an emergency relief package. This includes a 365-day debt moratorium and a 20% interest rate reduction on current loans for exporters who can prove financial impact from the crisis. Simultaneously, the Ministry of Commerce is aggressively pivoting towards “safe-haven” markets in South Asia, Latin America, and within the ASEAN region.
The Human and Economic Toll: Labor and Tourism
The crisis has a profound human dimension for Thailand, touching the lives of tens of thousands of its citizens working abroad. The Labor Stalemate: Thailand has over 77,000 workers in the Middle East, primarily in Israel, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia. The Ministry of Labor has established specialized “War Rooms” to coordinate emergency communications and potential evacuations. A large-scale repatriation would not only be a logistical nightmare but would cause a severe loss of remittance income to Thailand’s provincial economies.
Flight Cancellations and Delays: Impacts on Tourism
Flight cancellations and delays have recently emerged as a significant challenge for the Thai tourism sector. As of early March 2026, escalating tensions in the Middle East have triggered a wave of disruptions, particularly impacting long-haul travel and transit hubs. These disruptions have caused a ripple effect, leading to decreased tourist arrivals and affecting local businesses reliant on international visitors. Airlines are struggling to adjust their schedules, while travelers face uncertainty and inconvenience. The Thai government and tourism authorities are now exploring measures to mitigate the impact, including promoting domestic tourism and diversifying source markets to reduce dependency on long-haul travelers.
Scope of Disruptions (March 2026)
Military actions in the Middle East starting in late February 2026 led to several countries closing their airspace, forcing airlines to reroute or cancel flights.
- Flight Statistics: Between February 28 and March 1, 2026, 134 flights were affected across Thailand’s major airports.
- Key Hubs Impacted: * Suvarnabhumi (BKK): Recorded 59 cancellations.
- Phuket (HKT): Recorded 36 cancellations.
- Others: Don Mueang and Chiang Mai airports reported minor disruptions.
- Affected Carriers: Major Middle Eastern airlines including Emirates, Qatar Airways, Etihad, and Gulf Air, as well as Thai AirAsia X (specifically its Riyadh route) and El Al Israel, have had to adjust schedules or suspend services.
Economic and Arrival Impact
The disruptions have hit Thailand’s recovery goals, specifically targeting high-spending markets.
- Arrival Shortfall: The Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) estimates that March arrivals will drop to 2.8 million, missing the original 3 million target. The loss is largely attributed to a decrease of 150,000 visitors from the Middle East, Europe, and the Americas.
- Long-Haul Vulnerability: Approximately 50% of long-haul trips to Thailand rely on Middle Eastern transit hubs. These bookings have seen significant cancellations for the month of March.
- Revenue Risk: Travelers from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and Israel are among the highest spenders, averaging 100,000 THB per trip. A prolonged conflict could see an 80% plunge in arrivals from these regions.
Industry & Government Response
To mitigate the “collateral damage” to the tourism image, both the public and private sectors have mobilized support.
- Tourism Crisis Monitoring Centre: The TAT activated this center on March 1 to track developments and provide real-time information to travelers.
- Airport Support: Airports of Thailand (AOT) has set up dedicated assistance zones at Suvarnabhumi and Phuket, providing drinking water, extra seating, and staff to assist with rerouting.
- Private Sector Flexibility: * Hotels in Phuket, Samui, and Phang Nga are offering flexible rebooking and waiving cancellation fees for those with proof of flight disruption.
- Special “stranded traveler” packages and discounted room rates are being offered to the thousands currently unable to return home.
Outlook for 2026
This prolonged ambiguity has also led to increased costs and disrupted supply chains, forcing companies to explore alternative routes and methods. Stakeholders are urging for clearer communication and timely updates from authorities to better navigate the challenges and mitigate potential losses.
- Operational Shifts: Thai Airways has rerouted its European flights to bypass contested airspace. While this ensures safety, it has led to longer flight durations and increased operational costs.
- Market Diversification: There is an urgent call for the government to accelerate diversification into short-haul markets (like India and Southeast Asia) to fill the gap left by long-haul disruptions.
- Fuel Costs: Beyond immediate cancellations, there is growing concern that rising aviation fuel prices will lead to a surge in airfares, potentially dampening travel sentiment for the remainder of the year.
- The knock-on impact could spread to energy, pushing oil prices higher and directly raising transport costs and the cost of living.
- A sharp slowdown in tourism from the situation could reduce Thailand’s GDP by around 0.5–0.8%.
The Middle East crisis is no longer a distant, localized issue for Thailand; it has become an immediate economic reality. The Thai government, led by Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, is treating the situation as a serious economic threat, evidenced by the activation of an Economic War Room.
While Thailand attempts to maintain its 2026 inflation forecast of roughly 0.3%, the true cost of this “collateral damage” will be defined by the duration and intensity of the Middle Eastern conflicts. Until stability returns to the region, Thailand’s economic growth remains tethered to global events far beyond its control.
The persistent instability jeopardizes not only Thailand’s inflation targets but also the critical sectors of trade, tourism, and energy prices, all of which are vital to the nation’s economic resilience. Policymakers must urgently consider contingency measures and diversify economic dependencies to cushion the impact of prolonged geopolitical tensions. In the face of ongoing global uncertainties, Thailand’s capacity to adapt and take proactive measures will be essential in preserving its economic stability and ensuring sustainable long-term growth.
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I’m Emmanuel Onwusah—a financial analyst, writer, and recovering engineer. I hold FMVA® and BIDA® certifications from the Corporate Finance Institute, and I spend most of my time creating pitch decks, building models, analyzing companies, and trying to make sense of where value meets narrative. My background is in petroleum and gas engineering, but I moved into finance because I’ve always been drawn to how businesses grow, how markets react, and how data tells stories. I focus on tech, infrastructure, and internet services, with a bias for companies that pair strong fundamentals with real potential.I write here to think in public, share investment ideas, and connect with other investors who care about long-term returns, not just short-term noise. If you enjoy thoughtful breakdowns and real conversation around stocks, you’re in the right place. There’ll be charts, jokes, and hopefully, some profitable ideas.
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
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However, Chief Executive Julie Felss Masino said Wednesday that efforts to turn around the chain are taking shape. The company also adjusted its full-year guidance on earnings, revenue and other financial measures, helping send shares up nearly 8% in after-hours trading.
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Shoma Group CEO Masoud Shojaee and BH Group CEO Isaac Toledano speak exclusively to Fox News Digital about the wealth migration trends and sales they’ve seen from New York and California in 2026 so far.
EXCLUSIVE: New York and California are no longer just losing residents — they are losing an entire economic class.
As 2026 kicks off a fresh wave of “tax the rich” rhetoric in traditional financial hubs, top Florida developers tell Fox News Digital they are seeing a massive, permanent surge in capital migration. In just the last 60 days, two developers and one sales firm reported over $126 million in sales to buyers relocating from California and New York, signaling that the blue state exodus has moved from a temporary trickle to a flood of hundreds of millions of dollars.
“In our three projects… we saw over $60 million over the last 30 days, and I can tell you that in the last six months between the three projects combined, we sold over $200 million of product. We still see a lot of buyers coming from New York, California, New Jersey and Illinois. These are the main four markets,” BH Group CEO Isaac Toledano told Fox News Digital.
“We’re at roughly $50 million in Shoma Bay alone since the start of the year from New York and California buyers. What’s different now is the conviction,” Shoma Group CEO Masoud Shojaee also told Fox News Digital. “People aren’t just looking, they’re signing contracts, and that tells us this has staying power.”
“In just the first 60 days of 2026, we’ve already seen a significant increase in interest and activity at our condo projects. Based on this momentum, we anticipate total transactions this year will surpass 2025,” ISG World founder and CEO Craig Studnicky added, telling Fox News Digital they’ve seen $26 million in wealth migration from New York and California so far this year, up from $15 million the same time last year.
Between the three real estate companies, more than $126 million in sales has been completed from California and New York in 2026 so far. (Getty Images)
Based on these latest numbers, the three real estate tycoons agree that this isn’t just a slight uptick, but rather a compounding growth curve. And while Florida’s tax benefits have long been the hook for new residents, the catalysts for a new wave of high-net-worth individuals are the rise of socialist-leaning policies in New York and looming wealth taxes in California.
“We cannot ignore the fact that Mayor Mamdani, for the last few weeks, [has been] mentioning that they’re going to increase probably the real estate taxes and the wealth tax, and same in California,” Toledano said. “Here, everybody’s pushing that most likely we will see the real estate tax bills getting slashed… the mood here is completely different.”
“People are looking for simplicity… they wanna be confident. They wanna protect their business. They wanna have some clarity,” Shojaee added. “If there’s no predictability, if there is no trust, if there is no clarity, if there is no simplicity, the business is not gonna function. And that’s the issue that they have.”
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The primary criticism of the Florida boom was that it was a pandemic anomaly. However, the 2026 data suggests this is a structural relocation of American wealth. Shojaee emphasized that when a CEO moves their home or headquarters, they aren’t coming for a vacation.
“If it was only just purchasing their real estate for the sake of purchasing real estate, yeah, I would say it could be a trend. But once you move your business and your wealth to Miami or Palm Beach or South Florida, that’s really permanent,” Shojaee said.
Studnicky backs this up with a dramatic shift in his own sales data, moving from part-time residents to full-time Floridians.
“Two-thirds of my U.S. sales before COVID were second homes,” Studnicky revealed. “That has completely [flipped]. Two-thirds are permanent residents.”
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This influx of 24/7 business residents is forcing a fundamental redesign of Florida’s luxury landscape as developers are moving away from traditional resort amenities and toward infrastructure that supports a high-intensity professional life. For Studnicky, that means prioritizing the garage over the pool.
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“When I sit with developers today… we talk about parking as much as we talk about the swimming pool,” Studnicky said. “Everyone’s coming with two cars, and they want to park their own cars… Parking’s become a big deal.”
Toledano added that the level of scrutiny from new residents has reached an all-time high as they look meticulously for environments to best suit their lifestyle.
“The buyers [in] the last few years became more sophisticated. They want to know more about the location, more about the developer, more about the architect, the interior designer, they [are] paying for product. And they want to make sure that they’re getting the best of the best,” Toledano said.
“I think that if we will continue to see a couple of big financial firms moving to Florida, this will be a serious game changer.”
Concerns about the “Californication” or “New York-ifying” of Florida are overplayed, as the real estate experts argue that names like Mark Zuckerberg, Larry Page and Sergey Brin aren’t coming to “recreate what they left behind.”
“I’ve been living here for 32 years, that concern is overstating,” Studnicky said. “The folks that are moving here, they’re fiscally very conservative, and they’re deeply entrepreneurial and that entrepreneurial spirit. I’ve never seen it go alive anywhere as I do here in [South Florida].”
The ISG World founder added that President Donald Trump’s presence in Palm Beach also brings influence.
BH Group CEO Isaac Toledano speaks to Fox News Digital about how the New York City mayoral election has ‘accelerated’ New Yorkers’ decisions to move to the Sunshine State.
“Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach is the White House South. Donald Trump spends as much time at Mar-a-Lago as he actually does in the White House. In other words, his mere presence here is telling people… that this is a conservatively fiscal location, and it’s extremely safe.”
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As the “Wall Street South” matures, the question is no longer if Florida can compete with the traditional financial capitals of the world, but when it might surpass them. As Toledano puts it, the current boom is likely just the preamble. If the current trajectory holds, South Florida of 2030 won’t just be a refuge for high-tax state residents — it will be the new center of gravity for American capital.
“I believe this is an evolution. This is not a competition,” Shojaee added. “It’s a big possibility that happens… and we will see the wealth that is moving here and that they’d rather be here.”
As the 2026 World Baseball Classic unfolds across international venues, fans are quickly encountering one of the tournament’s most distinctive rules: the mercy rule, also known as the run-rule or slaughter rule. Unlike Major League Baseball, where games continue regardless of score differential, the WBC incorporates this provision to prevent excessively lopsided contests, protect pitching staffs and maintain competitive balance in early rounds.
The mercy rule applies strictly during pool play (first round) and the quarterfinals. A game ends early if one team leads by 15 or more runs after the completion of five innings or by 10 or more runs after seven innings. The threshold must be met at the end of a full inning — no mid-inning stoppages — and the trailing team must have completed the required frames. For example, if a team is ahead 15-0 after five innings, umpires call the game immediately, sparing further play.
This structure draws from international baseball norms set by the World Baseball Softball Confederation (WBSC), which has long used run-ahead rules in global competitions. The WBC adopted similar guidelines starting with its inaugural 2006 tournament, adding the 15-run threshold after five innings to address potential blowouts in a short-pool format where teams play only a few games. The rule vanishes in the semifinals and championship, ensuring full nine-inning battles for the title regardless of margin.
The 2026 edition retains these thresholds unchanged from prior tournaments like 2023. Official MLB and WBC announcements confirm games follow the 2025 Official Baseball Rules with supplements, including the mercy provision for pool and quarterfinal stages. No adjustments were made for this cycle despite discussions on pitch counts, pitch clocks (15 seconds bases empty, 18 with runners) and other tweaks to align with modern MLB pacing.
The mercy rule serves multiple purposes. In a tournament featuring mismatched talent levels — powerhouse nations like Japan, the United States, Dominican Republic and Venezuela often face emerging programs — it prevents humiliation while conserving arms for later matchups. Pitcher usage limits (e.g., rest requirements after high-pitch outings) amplify the need to avoid drawn-out routs. It also ties into tiebreaker scenarios: run differential factors heavily when teams finish with identical records, so avoiding unnecessary runs can preserve standings positions.
Critics argue the rule detracts from prestige, especially when star-studded lineups face off. Yet supporters note it mirrors youth and amateur levels (e.g., Little League’s similar thresholds) and protects players in a high-stakes event where injuries or fatigue could impact club seasons. Past WBCs saw the rule invoked sparingly — often in mismatches involving qualifiers — but its presence adds strategic layers: teams may push early leads aggressively knowing mercy could shorten games.
As the 2026 tournament progresses (with pool play underway and high-scoring early games prompting discussions), the mercy rule remains a key differentiator from MLB’s no-run-limit approach. Fans tracking games should watch for blowout alerts, as umpires enforce it promptly once criteria are met post-inning.
The provision underscores the WBC’s balance of elite competition and practical tournament management, ensuring shorter, more decisive outcomes in non-knockout phases while preserving drama for the final rounds.
I’m a full-time individual investor with over ten years of experience in the stock market. I look for asymmetric opportunities—situations where the potential upside is much bigger than the downside—even if the timing or exact path is uncertain. I often lean toward classic value ideas, but I’m happy to explore growth or tech opportunities when the risk-reward ratio is compelling. I especially enjoy digging into businesses that are overlooked or out of favor in the current market environment. Writing on Seeking Alpha gives me the chance to share my thoughts and investment ideas with a broader audience. My aim is to provide clear and useful analysis, but I also simply enjoy the process. Investing is something I’m genuinely passionate about, and writing allows me to turn that passion into conversations with other investors.
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of ABX either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
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Today’s Markets
In Asia, Japan +0.6%. Hong Kong +1.7%. China +0.4%. India -1.4%.
In Europe, at midday, London -0.3%. Paris -0.5%. Frankfurt -0.2%.
Futures at 6:30, Dow -0.2%. S&P -0.3%. Nasdaq -0.4%. Crude +4% to $84.26. Gold +0.5% to $5,102.30. Bitcoin -3.5% to $70,565.
Ten-year Treasury Yield +3 bps to 4.17%.
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Good morning, everyone, and welcome to IMI’s 2025 Full Year Results Presentation. I am joined here today by our CFO, Luke Grant. Together, we will take you through another year of strong strategic and financial progress. And I would like to begin by thanking all of our people for their tremendous contribution.
The execution of our growth strategy is creating significant value for shareholders, and it was another strong performance in 2025. We have now delivered 5 consecutive years of mid-single-digit organic revenue growth and supported by the delivery of our financial framework, we are compounding earnings growth. We delivered 5% organic sales growth and 8% organic adjusted operating profit in 2025 and achieved a 20% operating margin for the first time.
It was another year of strong cash generation, and we are committed to deploying this capital for growth and to enhance shareholder returns. Organic investment is at record levels, and I am pleased to be announcing a GBP 500 million share buyback alongside a proposed 10% increase to the final dividend.
We expect to deliver our sixth consecutive year of mid-single-digit organic growth in 2026. And based on current market conditions, full year adjusted basic EPS is expected to be between 136p and 142p.
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