How the Ukraine War Fuels Instability and Exploitation in Southeast Asia

Four years after the outbreak of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the negative consequences of the conflict go well beyond the framework of Europe. The NGO Fortify Rights, in a conference at the Foreign Correspondents’ Club of Thailand (FCCT) draws up an edifying record: war crimes, human trafficking and instability.

In South and Southeast Asia too, war produces invisible but profound effects. Economic neutrality driven by a fear of commitment does not shield certain countries from directly facing the repercussions of this ‘illegal war’.

“A peace without consequences for the aggressors encourages history to repeat itself.”  Those words pronounced in Bangkok by diplomat Viktor Semenov, speaker and business attaché for the Ukrainian embassy in Thailand, sound like a warning. For if the war in Ukraine seems to be a simple European tragedy, it has become a global phenomenon affecting the security of many non-European regions. This is the whole issue that the 5 speakers wanted to address at the NGO fortify rights conference, organized a few days ago within the FCCT.

Since 2022, accusations have been piling up against Russia: war crimes, torture, forced deportations, illegal transfers of children, repeated violations of international conventions. But the issue has long since surpassed the single European prism: it also concerns the rest of the world and in particular Southeast Asia.

Moscow’s Strategic Partnerships in the Region

On the Ukrainian scene, recalls Semenov, all the facts of war crimes committed by Russia are directly documented by NGOs such as Truth Hounds and Fortify Rights: summary executions, forced disappearances, bombings of civilian infrastructure. Serious violations of international humanitarian law, including the Geneva Conventions. Those violations also affect Asian countries brutally: in March 2022, a Bangladeshi cargo plane was destroyed during Russian strikes in Ukraine, killing several nationals. A drama almost passed over in silence.

But for one of the Ukrainian diplomatic voices in Bangkok, the heart of the problem lies in the tacit recognition of Russia by certain Asian actors.

In Asia, Russia has many supporters: North Korea, a historical and direct partner. More discreetly, but also the military junta of Myanmar which is quietly strengthening its ties with Moscow since the coup in 2021. This one signed with the Kremlin contracts for weapons but also for cooperation and development with an agreement with Rosatom signed in 2023 to develop civilian nuclear infrastructure. A strategic partnership, with major regional security implications.

This network of alliances transforms the Ukrainian conflict into a pivot of a new international order that is more fragmented, more unstable.

Invisible Victims: Human Trafficking and Forced Recruitment of South Asians

One of the most troubling aspects of the conflict is taking place far from the front line as shown in the report ‘I Was Tricked into the War: The Risk of Human Trafficking and Forced Recruitment of Bangladeshi Men into Russia’s War in Ukraine’, presented by its two executive directors, Amy Smith and Oxana Pokalchuk from the NGOs Fortify Rights and Truth Hounds. Created in 2013 in Burma, fortify rights to denounce the genocide of the Rohyngais; it is now based in Bangkok and is responsible for investigating, listing, and documenting all human rights violations. With the help of Truth Hound, a Ukrainian NGO founded in 2014, the organization conducted this survey which reveals an organized system of fraudulent recruitment organized from Russia.

Recruiters promise jobs, visas and Russian nationality to Asian migrant workers coming from a poor country (most often Nepali Bangladeshi or Sri Lankan). Recruiters offer them economic and social advancement opportunities as well as Russian nationality. To confuse the tracks, smugglers make them pay for plane tickets with numerous stopovers, often in Rangoon or in the Middle East before arriving in Russian territory.

Upon their arrival in Moscow, and after having confiscated their passports, the victims sign documents in Cyrillic that are presented to them as a contract of employment while they are actually military contracts. The men are then trained and sent to the Ukrainian front. The figures are dizzying: about 200 Nepalese, and 2,000 Sri Lankans (the most represented nationality due to extreme poverty and the country’s lack of opportunities) would have been enrolled in this scheme.

The Paradox of ‘Tactical’ Economic Neutrality

The Ukrainian diplomat also warns about the policy of connivance of certain states with the Kremlin. While the policy of economic neutrality adopted by many countries in South-East Asia seems at first sight to be a prudent choice, it is actually a factor in the instability of the region.

Indeed, many countries like Thailand and Vietnam have not turned their backs on the Russian Federation. The latter notably benefit from numerous tourist advantages (including 90-day visa-free access, as opposed to soon 30 for France), which translates into a spectacular recovery in Russian tourist flows since 2022: In 2025, Russia ranked as the fourth largest nationality visiting Thailand, with over one million Russian travelers. Limited access to many European destinations led Russian tourists to increasingly shift their focus to this region.

For economies in need of growth like Thailand, Russian tourism (excellent since it is one of the highest in the world in terms of spending per individual) is a godsend to capture new financial flows and compensate  for the slowdown in other markets. Added to this are maintained or even strengthened trade exchanges in the energy, agriculture, or hydrocarbon sectors. But this neutrality, if it may seem sensible in the long term, is not so in the context of regional geopolitical stability. Because the Russian Federation is, as explained in the report by Fortify Rights, a catalyst for instability in Southeast Asia. Indeed, the Russian support for dictatorial powers such as the Burmese Military Junta since 2021 since the coup d’état of 2021 has increased border tensions; as a result, there are regular clashes near the Thai border, flows of refugees, and military incursions that fuel a constant tension. In this context, Russia is no longer just a distant economic partner with whom we can agree out of pragmatism: it becomes, indirectly, an actor in regional imbalances.

Faced with these abuses, Viktor Semenov calls for a firm response: reactivate the instruments of international law. With the help of the coroner (and law professor at Chulalongkorn University) Sriprapha Petcharamesree that “A peace without consequences for the aggressors encourages history to repeat itself.” For this, he appeals to the judgments of the International Criminal Court to judge war crimes. It also highlights the creation of a special tribunal for Ukraine from June 2025. In addition, there is a requirement to establish compensation mechanisms for victims, including those from Asia.

Because as the diplomat recalls: “Victims are everywhere, also here in Thailand”.

The question is no longer where the war is taking place but rather how prepared the world and Southeast Asia are to confront its repercussions.

Other People are Reading