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Indian stocks enjoy a rare combination, makes a case for re-rating: Morgan Stanley’s Ridham Desai

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Indian stocks enjoy a rare combination, makes a case for re-rating: Morgan Stanley's Ridham Desai
Indian equities are entering what Morgan Stanley’s Ridham Desai calls a “rare combination” phase that, in his view, strengthens the case for a valuation re-rating of domestic stocks.

Indian stocks, Desai argues in a strategy report, now offer an unusual mix of “inexpensive relative valuations, poor trailing performance, strong policy stimulus and a consequent growth upcycle, an undervalued currency, weak foreign positioning and potentially a new buyback cycle.”

The 12-month trailing performance is “the worst in history” even as relative valuations are “approaching previous troughs”, with foreign portfolio investor (FPI) positioning having weakened steadily over the past four years. “India could be a pain trade, which may just accelerate the returns on stocks,” the report notes, adding that an undervalued rupee and a friendlier tax regime are likely to trigger “more buybacks” and keep net equity supply modest.

On the macro front, Morgan Stanley sees “a sharp turn in earnings growth over the coming months” as India’s growth cycle accelerates on the back of a coordinated reflation effort by the Reserve Bank of India and the government. The report cites the combination of rate cuts, bank deregulation, liquidity infusion, continued capex, tax reductions and a “relatively stimulating budget” as evidence that “India’s hawkish macro set-up post-Covid is now unwinding.”

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Trade deals and a thaw in relations with China are seen as additional tailwinds to growth and risk appetite.


This macro backdrop feeds directly into the re-rating argument. Desai highlights that “the falling intensity of oil in GDP and rising share of exports in GDP, especially services, and fiscal consolidation imply a lower saving imbalance,” which in turn should allow “structurally lower real rates.”
At the same time, lower inflation volatility, driven by supply-side reforms and flexible inflation targeting, should mean “volatility in interest rates and growth rates is likely falling in coming years.” Morgan Stanley’s base case sets a December 2026 Sensex target of 95,000, implying upside of 13% and a trailing P/E of 23.5 times, above the 25-year average of 22 times, to reflect “greater confidence in the medium-term growth cycle in India, India’s lower beta, a higher terminal growth rate and a predictable policy environment.” The base case rests on continued gains in macro stability through fiscal consolidation, increased private investment and a sustained positive gap between real growth and real rates, alongside “robust domestic growth, steady global growth and benign oil prices.”

The bull case, with a 30% probability, pegs the Sensex at 107,000 by December 2026, assuming oil prices “persistently below US$60 per barrel”, successful reflation that lifts growth estimates, and a curtailment of the global trade war, with Sensex earnings compounding at 19% annually over FY25–28.

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The bear case, assigned a 20% probability, takes the Sensex down to 76,000 if oil spikes above US$90 per barrel, the RBI is forced to tighten, global growth slows materially and the US slips into recession, with earnings growth moderating to 15% and equity multiples de-rating to reflect a weaker macro environment.

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Underlying the optimism is a call that the earnings cycle is turning. The firm’s proprietary leading earnings indicator “is suggesting improving earnings growth”, while its composite valuation indicator, which blends 11 absolute and relative metrics, points to “equity returns of around 16% in the next 12 months.” Sensex earnings in the base case are projected to compound at 17% annually through FY28, with the top-down framework for the broader market showing EPS growth of 22% in FY26, 20% in FY27 and 17% in FY28.

Positioning and sentiment are the other key pillars of the re-rating thesis. India’s weight in global emerging market funds relative to its MSCI EM weight, and FPIs’ shareholding gap between the top 75 companies and the broader market, suggest “India could be the pain trade in 2026” if global investors are forced to add to underweight positions. Morgan Stanley’s proprietary sentiment indicator, which combines flows, volatility, trading activity and breadth, is firmly in the “buy zone”, indicating a contrarian opportunity.

Meanwhile, the real effective exchange rate is near multi-year lows, historically a supportive backdrop for equities, even if the past relationship with stocks has weakened.

The portfolio stance reflects a conviction that a macro trade is now unfolding. “Domestic cyclicals over defensives and external-facing sectors,” the report says, with an overweight stance on financials, consumer discretionary and industrials, and underweight calls on energy, materials, utilities and healthcare.

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Within sectors, the strategists argue that rising credit growth and low credit costs, a recovery in urban consumption and robust government as well as private capex make a strong case for domestic cyclicals to lead, while defensives and global cyclicals lag.

Desai sums up the backdrop as one where Indian equities are backed by policy, earnings and positioning, but not yet fully priced for the improving structural story. With “high growth with low volatility” and a gradual shift in household balance sheets towards equities, Morgan Stanley sees the conditions in place for Indian stocks to “enjoy a rare combination” that, in its view, justifies a re-rating over the next couple of years.

(Disclaimer: The recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times.)

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Car insurance to loans group Admiral post record profits

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Admiral staff, which include more than 7,000 in South Wales, will receive £1,800 of free shares on the strong trading performance in 2025

Chief executive of Admiral Milena Mondini de Focatiis.(Image: Matthew Horwood)

Car insurance to loans group and Wales’ only FTSE business, Admiral, has reported a 16% surge in pre-tax profit to £957.9m. The record performance sees 13,000 staff being rewarded with £1,800 worth of free shares under the group’s employee share scheme.

The Cardiff headquartered business employs more than 7,000 in South Wales.

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For its 2025 financial year group turnover came in at £5.9bn, down 1% on 2024. While it said the UK car insurance market remained softer than expected a strong focus drove what it described as “excellent results” in its core business, with profits exceeding £1bn for the first time. Its car insurance business in Europe performed well with strong growth and profitability in France and what it described as a rapid recovery in Italy. Admiral, whose other lines includes pet and home insurance, also operates in Spain.

Admiral Money saw a 24% rise in its gross loan balances to £1.46bn, while contributing £26m to overall group profit – double the amount in 2024 Over 13,000 employees will each receive free share awards worth up to £1,800 under the employee share schemes based on the full year 2025 results.

READ MORE: Admiral invests in fund backing growth of UK mid-market firmsREAD MORE: Admiral acquires commercial fleet insurer fintech Flock in an £80m deal

Admiral chief executive Milena Mondini de Focatiis, “2025 was an exceptional year for Admiral, reflecting the strength of our business model, our discipline and the quality of execution across the Group. We reported record profits, continued to grow our customer base and diversify our business, while maintaining momentum in how we invest and innovate.

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“The group reported profit of £958m, up 16 per cent, supported by customer growth of 7%. UK Motor delivered an exceptional performance, surpassing £1bn of profit, while our other UK personal lines, Admiral Money and European Motor operations together generated nearly £100m of profit, with strong results in France and a rapid recovery in Italy.

“Our focus on customers remains central. Investment in our digital journeys, app functionality and product development continue to improve everyday experiences for customers, . This is reflected in consistently strong service outcomes.

“2025 was also a year of purposeful acceleration. We completed the integration of More Than, continued to enhance our product range and increased our investment in technology, data and artificial intelligence. We have established a GenAI Centre of Excellence to move from experimentation to scale, with early pilots showing encouraging signs of improved efficiency and enhanced customer outcomes.”

The results discount the impact of its US car insurance business, Elephant. Its acquisition by US private equity firm JC Flower was finalised last month. As part of its growth strategy Admiral last month acquired London-based digital fleet insurer Flock in a £80m deal

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On the outlook the chief executive said: “As we refresh our strategy, our focus is on compounding Admiral’s strengths in data, technology, diversified products and operational excellence to drive greater efficiency, stronger customer retention and long‑term value creation, particularly through multi‑product relationships. Our strong financial position also provides flexibility to continue investing in the business and support future shareholder returns.

“At the start of 2026, we announced that Geraint Jones will retire as Group chief finance officer this summer. Geraint has made an outstanding contribution to Admiral and played a central role in shaping Admiral’s performance and culture. I am pleased he will continue to support the group in a part-time role, and I look forward to working with Rachel Lewis, who will become group CFO on July 1, bringing deep business knowledge, leadership and a proven track-record of delivery.

“Admiral enters the next phase of its strategy in a position of strength. Our culture, people and disciplined approach remain central to everything that we do and I would like to thank our colleagues across the Group for their continued commitment to our customers and to each other.”

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Gas price cut for some Firmus Energy customers

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Gas price cut for some Firmus Energy customers

Gas prices in the Ten Towns area will fall by just over 10% in April.

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Panel approves $30m lifestyle village and short stay in Capel

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Ocean Gardens to build $30m village in Capel

An over 55s lifestyle village and short stay accommodation project in the South West is closer to fruition after an assessment panel approved the $30 million proposal.

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Ocean Gardens to build $30m village in Capel

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Ocean Gardens to build $30m village in Capel

Ocean Gardens has cleared a planning hurdle after an assessment panel approved its $30 million lifestyle village plan in the South West.

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Cicor Technologies shares 9% below price target after mixed 2025 results

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Cicor Technologies shares 9% below price target after mixed 2025 results

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Dow Falls 400 Points, Shedding Nearly 1,000 Points in 3 Days

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Stocks Little Changed After Fed Decision

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell sharply for a third day in a row on Tuesday, but the major indexes finished well off their lows as another oil price spike eased.

The Dow fell 404 points, or 0.8%. The index has fallen about 1,000 points since its close on Thursday. The S&P 500 dropped 0.9%. The Nasdaq Composite slid 1%.

WTI crude oil futures rose 4.7% to $74.56 a barrel, while Brent crude oil futures were up 4.7% to $81.40. Brent crude futures have risen 15% in the past three sessions, which is their largest three-day percent gain since the span that ended March 21, 2022.

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Trump Orders Tanker Insurance and Escorts as Oil Surges

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Trump Orders Tanker Insurance and Escorts as Oil Surges

Trump Orders Tanker Insurance and Escorts as Oil Surges

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Most Restaurants Grow Sales by Raising Prices. These 3 Relied on Foot Traffic.

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Most Restaurants Grow Sales by Raising Prices. These 3 Relied on Foot Traffic.

Most Restaurants Grow Sales by Raising Prices. These 3 Relied on Foot Traffic.

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RFK Jr criticized for questioning safety of high-sugar Dunkin’, Starbucks drinks

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RFK Jr criticized for questioning safety of high-sugar Dunkin', Starbucks drinks

Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. ignited widespread backlash online after questioning whether high-sugar iced coffee drinks sold at Dunkin’ and Starbucks are safe – and the governor of Massachusetts was among the pushback.

Kennedy said during an “Eat Real Food” rally in Austin, Texas, on Feb. 26, “We’re going to ask Dunkin’ Donuts and Starbucks, ‘Show us the safety data that show that it’s OK for a teenage girl to drink an iced coffee with 115 grams of sugar in it.”

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“I don’t think they’re gonna be able to do it,” he added.

The remarks quickly drew a response in Massachusetts, where Dunkin’ was founded and is considered a cultural staple.

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Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. raised concerns about sugary beverages during an Austin, Texas, rally on Feb. 26, 2026. (Jason Mendez/Getty Images; iStock / Getty Images)

Massachusetts Gov. Maura Healey took to X on Wednesday to defend the iconic New England beverage, posting an image of a flag displaying the slogan, “Come and take it.”

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While some users on X criticized Healey, arguing that she should promote healthier food standards, others rallied behind the governor amid concerns the administration could target their favorite drinks.

“Maybe this regime needs to remember we take drinks VERY SERIOUSLY in New England,” one user wrote, alongside an image depicting the 1773 Boston Tea Party.

Others swapped the “Don’t tread on me” motto with, “Donut tread on me.”

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Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. referenced Dunkin’ while discussing potential scrutiny of high-sugar beverages. (Paul Weaver/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images / Getty Images)

The Department of Health and Human Services did not immediately respond to FOX Business’ request for comment on whether the administration plans to carry out its demands and restrict beverages at Dunkin’ or other coffee chains

Dunkin’ and Starbucks did not immediately respond to FOX Business’ request for comment.

MAHA Action, a nonprofit organization dedicated to the “Make America Healthy Again” movement, said in a statement after the event that Kennedy announced the closure of a loophole in the “Generally Recognized As Safe” (GRAS) food ingredient approval program, a long-standing regulatory pathway that allows companies to self-certify certain ingredients as safe.

“Companies including Dunkin’ Donuts and Starbucks will be required to produce safety data they were supposed to have maintained. The reforms aim to ensure American foods follow the highest safety and nutritional standards globally,” the group said.

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Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suggested that companies such as Dunkin’ and Starbucks may need to demonstrate the safety of certain high-sugar drinks under stricter federal scrutiny. (Zhang Peng/LightRocket via Getty Images / Getty Images)

Kennedy began pushing to reform the GRAS system soon after his appointment and confirmation, according to The Boston Globe, which noted that the category was created so companies would not have to apply for approval to use common ingredients.

However, over time, the system has expanded to include thousands of new ingredients, including those used in ultra-processed foods, the newspaper reported.

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The renewed focus on sugary beverages comes as Kennedy has launched a broader effort to overhaul the nation’s food supply.

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DOT approves American Airlines flights to Venezuela after 5 years

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DOT approves American Airlines flights to Venezuela after 5 years

American Airlines is set to resume nonstop flights to Venezuela after the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) approved the carrier’s request Wednesday, making it the first U.S. airline to restore service between the two countries since 2019.

The airline told FOX Business the flights will be operated by Envoy, a wholly owned subsidiary of American Airlines, with nonstop service from Miami to Caracas and Maracaibo, Venezuela.

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The approval follows President Donald Trump’s January directive to reopen commercial airspace over Venezuela after the Federal Aviation Administration issued an emergency order barring U.S. civil flight operations in the country’s airspace. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy later rescinded the order at the president’s direction.

Trump asked the DOT to lift the restrictions following a discussion with Venezuela’s acting president, Delcy Rodríguez.

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American Airlines plane departs Los Angeles

American Airlines is set to resume nonstop service between Miami and Venezuela after the U.S. Department of Transportation approved the carrier’s request on March 4, 2026, marking the first time a U.S. airline has restored flights to the country sinc (Kevin Carter/Getty Images / Getty Images)

The Transportation Security Administration was in Caracas last week reviewing airport security procedures, a necessary step to resume flights, sources told Reuters.

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The airline announced in late January that it intended to reconnect with Venezuela, just weeks after the U.S. conducted strikes in the country and captured dictator Nicolás Maduro.

“We have a more than 30-year history connecting Venezolanos to the U.S., and we are ready to renew that incredible relationship,” Nat Pieper, American’s Chief Commercial Officer, said in a statement at the time. “By restarting service to Venezuela, American will offer customers the opportunity to reunite with families and create new business and commerce with the United States.”

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American Airlines

The U.S. Department of Transportation approved American Airlines’ request to operate flights to Caracas and Maracaibo, Venezuela, following the lifting of a yearslong restriction on U.S. carriers. (DANIEL SLIM/AFP via Getty Images)

American began operating in Venezuela in 1987 and was the largest U.S. airline in the country before all air service was suspended in 2019.

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The DOT said the order is valid for two years. 

An American Airlines passenger plane is parked at a gate at Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport.

An American Airlines passenger plane is parked at a gate at Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport on August 24, 2025, in Arlington, Virginia.  (DANIEL SLIM/AFP  / Getty Images)

In December, the State Department added Venezuela to its “Do Not Travel” advisory list, which remains in effect.

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FOX Business has reached out to the Department of Transportation and the State Department for comment.

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FOX Business’ Daniella Genovese and Reuters contributed to this report.

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