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Iran-Israel war: Up 20% in 2026, crude oil stares at $80 a barrel

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Iran-Israel war: Up 20% in 2026, crude oil stares at $80 a barrel
Oil prices may rise up to as much as $80 a barrel in the wake of the conflict between Israel and Iran that erupted on Saturday, according to experts, who fear a disruption in the global crude supply.

Israel launched attacks on Iran’s capital Tehran to remove what it called “an existential threat”. The attacks came as talks between the US and Iran over nuclear de-escalation failed to reach an understanding. The US has backed the Israel’s attacks. Iran has retaliated to the attacks.

“Uncertainty prevails, fear is pushing prices higher today,” Tamas ⁠Varga, an analyst at PVM was quoted as saying by Reuters. “It is completely driven by the outcome of the Iranian nuclear talks and possible military action the U.S. might take against Iran.”

Quoting Barclays Bank, IANS reported that Brent crude could rise to around $80 per barrel in the event of any significant supply disruption as the market is experiencing a risk premium due to geopolitical tensions, although any escalation may not necessarily lead to an immediate supply disruption.

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The benchmarks Brent and the US WTI surged over 3% in the previous session and could extend their gains on Monday when trading resumes.


The US WTI crude oil futures ended at $67.29 per barrel, gaining $2.08 or 3.19% in a single session while Brent witnessed an even sharper surge of 3.4% or $2.37 per barrel to close at $72.87.
The Brent and WTI benchmarks are currently trading at their highest levels since July and August.President Donald Trump called the strikes a “major combat operations in Iran” in a video released on social media. The strikes were launched near the offices of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

The war-like situation is likely to impact operations through the Strait of Hormuz, a 21-mile-wide waterway which remains a critical passage for global supply. Approximately 13 million barrels per day pass through the Strait — roughly 31% of all seaborne crude oil on earth.

Commodity and currency expert Anuj Gupta expects a sharp spike on Monday, hinting at Brent testing the $75 per barrel mark while WTI scaling $70 levels.

Crude oil prices have been on fire rising by nearly 5% or $3.39 in February while extending the 2026 gains to a $12.21 per barrel, implying a 20.10% year-to-date increase.

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The war premium is expected to grow if the crisis is not contained in time.

Also read: Iran-Israel conflict: Expect a gap-up opening in gold and silver. Here’s how to trade bullion on Monday

Strategy for oil traders

Gupta suggests buying MCX Crude oil futures at Rs 5,950-6,000 with a stop loss of Rs 5,750 and a target of Rs 6,350-6,500.

Impact on equity markets

High crude oil prices are expected to be sentimentally negative for domestic equity markets when trading resumes on Monday.

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Kranthi Bathini, Director-Equity Strategy at WealthMills Securities said a level above $80 per barrel could be a strong negative. He expects a choppy trade on Monday, expecting sharp cuts that may stay over a near term.

India’s benchmark indices Nifty and the BSE Sensex, ended with deep cuts on Friday amid selling pressure across the board. Auto, financials and FMCG were major laggards while the IT sector saw selective buying action. In a volatile session, the broader Nifty edged lower by 317.90 points, or 1.25%, to close at 25,178.65, while the 30-share Sensex plunged by 961.42 points, or 1.17%, to settle at 81,287.19.

Sectors in focus

Oil marketing companies like Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL), Hindustan Petroleum Corporation (HPCL) and Oil India Limited could be in focus and may see selling pressure, if oil prices jump sharply.

High prices impact refining margins of OMCs, hitting their bottom lines.

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Moreover, tyre and paint stocks could also come under pressure. Crude oil is a key raw material source for both paint and tyre companies because many of their inputs are petroleum-based derivatives.

Also read: Iran-Israel tensions likely to trigger choppy trade on Monday. What should investors do?

(Disclaimer: The recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times.)

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(VIDEO) BLACKPINK’s ‘DEADLINE’ Shatters Records with 1.46 Million Copies Sold on First Day

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Dove Cameron could officially play the role of Sabrina the Teenage With in "Riverdale" Season 2. Pictured: Cameron attends the 42nd Annual Gracie Awards Gala, hosted by The Alliance for Women in Media at the Beverly Wilshire Hotel on June 6, 2017 in Bever

BLACKPINK’s long-awaited third mini album *DEADLINE* exploded onto the charts, selling 1,461,785 physical copies worldwide on its first day of release February 27, 2026, according to real-time data from South Korea’s Hanteo Chart. The figure sets a new benchmark as the highest single-day album sales ever recorded for a K-pop girl group, surpassing previous records and cementing the quartet’s dominance in the industry.

Blackpink 31
Blackpink

YG Entertainment confirmed the tally early February 28, stating the EP not only marks BLACKPINK’s personal best but also establishes the group as the first female K-pop act to achieve multiple million-copy first-day sales. Their 2022 full-length *Born Pink* previously crossed 1.01 million on debut day, while *DEADLINE* nearly 50% higher at launch.

The achievement eclipses aespa’s 2023 mini-album *My World* (1.37 million copies on day one), NewJeans’ *Get Up* (1.19 million) and LE SSERAFIM’s *UNFORGIVEN* (1.02 million), making BLACKPINK the undisputed leader among girl groups on Hanteo’s historical rankings. It also ranks as the second-highest first-day total for any K-pop album in 2026 so far, trailing only ENHYPEN’s *THE SIN: VANISH* (over 1.65 million copies).

*DEADLINE* dropped at 2 p.m. KST February 27, ending a three-year-and-five-month hiatus since *Born Pink*. The six-track EP features the lead single “GO,” which quickly climbed to No. 1 on YouTube’s worldwide trending videos within hours and amassed over 21 million views in its first 24 hours. The album topped iTunes Top Albums charts in 32 countries and regions, while “GO” ranked high on domestic platforms like Melon’s Top 100.

Fans, known as BLINKs, drove the massive sales through pre-orders, fan cafe events and global album bundles. Versions including photobooks, posters and exclusive merchandise fueled demand, with Weverse Shop and other platforms reporting swift sell-outs of limited editions. The group’s global appeal — bolstered by solo successes from Jisoo, Jennie, Rosé and Lisa — translated into strong international pre-sales and day-one purchases.

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Industry observers hailed the numbers as evidence of BLACKPINK’s enduring commercial power despite the members’ focus on individual projects in recent years. Jisoo has pursued acting, Jennie launched her label ODD ATELIER, Rosé signed with The Black Label and Atlantic Records, and Lisa formed LLOUD while maintaining YG ties. The comeback reunites the quartet for group activities, including planned promotions and potentially a world tour.

Critics and fans praised *DEADLINE* for blending BLACKPINK’s signature fierce sound with fresh production. Early reviews highlight “GO” as an empowering anthem with sharp beats and confident lyrics, while B-sides explore vulnerability and maturity. The visual rollout, including a high-concept music video for “GO,” amassed millions of views and trended worldwide.

The sales milestone arrives amid a competitive K-pop landscape, where physical album numbers remain a key metric of success despite streaming dominance. Hanteo Chart tracks real-time sales from major retailers, providing a reliable gauge of fan support. BLACKPINK’s achievement underscores the group’s loyal global fandom and strategic timing after prolonged anticipation.

YG Entertainment expressed gratitude to BLINKs, promising more content and activities throughout the promotion cycle. The company teased additional music shows, variety appearances and international engagements in coming weeks.

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As *DEADLINE* continues climbing charts, analysts project it could surpass 2 million total sales in its first week, potentially securing a spot among the year’s top sellers. The record-breaking debut reaffirms BLACKPINK’s status as one of K-pop’s biggest acts, capable of shattering barriers even after years apart.

With streaming numbers surging and physical copies flying off shelves, *DEADLINE* marks a triumphant return that sets the bar high for 2026 comebacks.

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Iran’s supreme leader Khamenei to give speech within minutes after U.S., Israeli strikes on Iran, Al-Alam TV says

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Iran’s supreme leader Khamenei to give speech within minutes after U.S., Israeli strikes on Iran, Al-Alam TV says


Iran’s supreme leader Khamenei to give speech within minutes after U.S., Israeli strikes on Iran, Al-Alam TV says

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Block Eliminates Bloat To Deliver Ambitious 2028 Target – Wait For Correction

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Block Eliminates Bloat To Deliver Ambitious 2028 Target - Wait For Correction

Block Eliminates Bloat To Deliver Ambitious 2028 Target – Wait For Correction

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Exclusive-Ahead of strikes, Trump was told Iran attack is high risk, high reward

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Exclusive-Ahead of strikes, Trump was told Iran attack is high risk, high reward


Exclusive-Ahead of strikes, Trump was told Iran attack is high risk, high reward

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(VIDEO) Trump Announces ‘Major Combat Operations’ Against Iran, Urges Regime Change in Joint US-Israel Strikes

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Sarah Ferguson

President Donald Trump announced the launch of “major combat operations” against Iran on Saturday, February 28, 2026, in a video message posted to Truth Social, vowing to destroy Tehran’s ballistic missile and nuclear programs while calling on the Iranian people to seize the moment for regime change. The declaration came amid joint U.S.-Israeli strikes targeting Iranian leadership, military sites and nuclear facilities, escalating tensions into what officials described as a multi-day campaign.

US President Donald Trump delivers a speech during the Gaza Peace Summit in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt
US President Donald Trump
AFP

“Our objective is to defend the American people by eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime, a vicious group of very hard, terrible people,” Trump said in the eight-minute video, filmed behind a podium in a navy suit and “USA” baseball cap. He accused Iran of decades of attacks on U.S. forces and allies, continuing nuclear development and plans for long-range missiles capable of reaching America. Trump warned of potential American casualties but emphasized the operation’s necessity, dubbing it “Operation Epic Fury.”

Addressing Iranians directly, Trump urged, “The hour of your freedom is at hand. When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take. This will be probably your only chance for generations.” He called on Iran’s military to lay down arms and civilians to stay sheltered during the strikes, framing the action as liberation from a “radical dictatorship.”

The strikes began around dawn Tehran time, with explosions reported in the capital and other cities including Isfahan, Qom, Kermanshah and Karaj. Targets included Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s compound, President Masoud Pezeshkian’s residence, IRGC headquarters and nuclear sites. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz confirmed the “pre-emptive attack” was the result of months of joint planning, aimed at removing an “existential threat.”

A senior U.S. official, speaking anonymously, told reporters the operation involved over 500 aircraft, including carrier-based jets and long-range bombers, and could last several days with multiple waves. The assault followed stalled nuclear negotiations and Iran’s violent crackdown on domestic protests, which reportedly killed thousands.

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Iranian state media reported blasts near an elementary school, claiming civilian deaths, though verification was limited amid power outages and communication blackouts. Military spokesman Amir Hatami condemned the “barbaric aggression” and promised a “crushing” response. The IRGC launched a “first wave” of missiles and drones targeting Tel Aviv, northern Israel and U.S. bases in Iraq, Syria, the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. One civilian was killed in Abu Dhabi from debris, and a man in his 50s was injured by shrapnel in Israel.

Airspaces across the region closed, grounding civilian flights and disrupting global travel. Airlines like IndiGo and British Airways suspended Middle East routes. Gulf states issued emergency alerts, with the UAE condemning the attacks and reserving response rights.

International reactions poured in. Russia and China denounced the strikes as “illegal aggression,” calling for a U.N. Security Council emergency meeting. European leaders urged restraint, while U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres expressed deep concern. In the U.S., congressional leaders were briefed, with bipartisan support emerging but calls for caution to avoid wider war.

Oil prices surged over 15% on fears of Strait of Hormuz disruptions, with Brent and WTI climbing sharply. Global stocks fell, and defense shares rose amid uncertainty.

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Humanitarian groups warned of civilian risks in densely populated areas. Amnesty International demanded protections, while the exiled Iranian crown prince urged protests.

Social media captured mixed sentiments, with some Iranians celebrating potential change and others decrying foreign intervention. Analysts like Aaron David Miller predicted a potential full-scale war if regime-change ambitions persist.

The operation’s scope remains fluid, with Trump and Netanyahu planning further updates. As IRGC mobilizes, the Middle East braces for escalation with global ramifications.

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Baldwin Insurance Group Stock Soars 25% on Strong Q4 Earnings Beat, $250 Million Buyback and Upbeat Outlook

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Baldwin Group

Shares of The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: BWIN) surged more than 25% on February 27, 2026, closing at $23.23 after the insurance distribution company reported fourth-quarter 2025 results that exceeded analyst expectations on adjusted earnings and provided confident guidance for the year ahead, including a new $250 million share repurchase authorization.

Baldwin Group
Baldwin Group

The rally, one of the stock’s strongest single-day moves in recent history, came on elevated volume of over 3.1 million shares — more than double the average — as investors cheered improved profitability metrics, strategic partnerships and management’s response to industry headwinds like AI-driven disruption in insurance distribution. The stock opened at $20.17, hit an intraday high of $23.51 and traded well above its previous close of $18.49, recovering ground after earlier 2026 weakness that saw it dip near $16.

For the quarter ended December 31, 2025, Baldwin reported revenue of $347.3 million, up from the prior year but slightly below some Street estimates around $350 million. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $0.31, topping consensus forecasts of $0.29 and reflecting a 15% year-over-year increase. Adjusted EBITDA reached $69.65 million, narrowly beating expectations of $69.23 million.

Full-year 2025 results showed continued scale, with trailing twelve-month revenue approaching $1.5 billion and a net loss narrowing to $33.8 million, or $0.50 per basic share. Management highlighted operational leverage in its Insurance Advisory Solutions (IAS), Underwriting, Capacity & Technology Solutions (UCTS) and Mainstreet Insurance Solutions (MIS) segments, with strong contributions from recent acquisitions like Cobbs Allen and synergies from the CAC Group merger.

CEO Trevor Baldwin addressed recent market volatility during the earnings call, noting AI-powered insurance applications had pressured broker stocks but emphasizing Baldwin’s moat in embedded distribution and personalized advisory services. “We are accelerating AI integration to enhance our platform while maintaining human-centric expertise,” he said. The company outlined a 2026 revenue target near $2 billion, implying robust double-digit growth, and expects adjusted EBITDA margin expansion through efficiency and scale.

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The board approved a $250 million share repurchase program, signaling confidence in undervaluation and cash flow generation. Baldwin also announced a strategic partnership with Fairway Independent Mortgage Corporation to launch Fairway Home Insurance Agency, expanding embedded insurance opportunities in the mortgage channel.

Analysts reacted positively. Raymond James upgraded the stock to Strong Buy from Outperform, raising its price target to $30 from $20. TD Cowen initiated coverage with a Buy rating, while Barclays and others maintained overweight or buy views. Consensus targets cluster around $31, suggesting 30-35% upside from recent levels despite mixed opinions, including Wells Fargo’s more cautious equal-weight stance with a $21 target.

The stock has traded in a 52-week range of $15.88 to $47.15, reflecting volatility from acquisition integration, margin pressures and sector concerns over AI disruption. Year-to-date in 2026, shares had been down before the post-earnings surge, but the rally lifted market capitalization above $2.7 billion.

Baldwin Insurance Group operates as an independent distribution platform serving businesses, individuals and institutions with property & casualty, employee benefits and personal risk solutions. Its digitally enabled model and focus on middle-market clients position it to capture share in a fragmented industry.

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Challenges include ongoing net losses on a GAAP basis, debt levels from M&A and competition from traditional brokers and insurtech players. Management stressed disciplined capital allocation and AI as tools to drive organic growth and efficiency.

With the earnings momentum and buyback support, Baldwin appears poised for further recovery if execution continues. Investors will watch Q1 results and progress on partnerships for confirmation of the turnaround trajectory.

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Shanna Moakler Claims ‘Inappropriate Relationship’ With Kim Kardashian Led to Divorce From Travis Barker

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Dove Cameron could officially play the role of Sabrina the Teenage With in "Riverdale" Season 2. Pictured: Cameron attends the 42nd Annual Gracie Awards Gala, hosted by The Alliance for Women in Media at the Beverly Wilshire Hotel on June 6, 2017 in Bever

Shanna Moakler has reignited long-standing tensions with the Kardashian family, asserting in a recent podcast appearance that an alleged “inappropriate relationship” between her ex-husband Travis Barker and Kim Kardashian contributed to the end of their marriage more than 15 years ago.

Shanna Moakler
Shanna Moakler

In an episode of the “When Reality Hits” podcast released February 27, 2026, Moakler revisited claims she first made publicly in 2021 and 2024, stating she received anonymous text messages during her marriage alleging Barker and Kardashian were involved inappropriately. “I had gotten texts from an anonymous number that Travis and Kim were having an inappropriate relationship,” Moakler said. She added that she divorced Barker “for that reason,” suggesting the incident complicated later family dynamics after Barker’s 2022 marriage to Kourtney Kardashian.

Moakler and Barker wed in October 2004 and share two children: son Landon, 22, and daughter Alabama, 19. They separated in 2006, reconciled briefly and finalized their divorce in 2008 after a tumultuous period documented on the reality series *Meet the Barkers*. Barker has been married to Kourtney Kardashian since May 2022, and the blended family includes Kourtney’s three children from her previous marriage to Scott Disick.

The latest comments came amid broader discussion on the podcast about co-parenting challenges and her feelings toward the Kardashian clan. Moakler emphasized she does not “talk to” or “like” the family, attributing the sentiment to the alleged past incident with Kim Kardashian, now 45. “If certain things didn’t happen decades ago… I’d probably really like them,” she said, acknowledging that the history has made transitions “complicated” in the blended family setup.

Moakler has made similar allegations before. In a 2021 interview, she claimed to have discovered explicit text messages between Barker and Kim Kardashian while he was hospitalized following a 2008 plane crash, alleging plans to meet for an encounter. She reiterated in January 2024 that the messages indicated intent “to f—k” at a sister’s house, saying she felt “stupid” for believing Barker when he denied it and deleted the texts. Neither Barker nor Kim Kardashian has publicly responded to or confirmed the claims over the years.

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The renewed discussion ties into Moakler’s ongoing commentary about Kourtney Kardashian’s role as stepmother to Landon and Alabama. In the same podcast, Moakler questioned boundaries in the blended family without providing specific examples, saying she felt certain actions were “not respectful” and that she “wouldn’t be doing some of the shit you’re doing with my kids” if roles were reversed.

Public reactions on social media have been mixed. Some supporters praised Moakler for speaking candidly about co-parenting struggles, while critics accused her of stirring drama and failing to move on after nearly two decades. Comments on platforms like Instagram and X included calls for her to “let it go” and observations that the allegations remain unproven.

The Kardashian-Barker family has not issued statements addressing the latest remarks. Kourtney and Travis have largely kept family matters private since their marriage, though occasional social media posts show blended family moments. Kim Kardashian has focused on her business ventures and legal advocacy, rarely engaging in public feuds.

Moakler, a former Miss USA and actress, has maintained visibility through podcasts, social media and occasional media appearances. She has spoken openly about her post-divorce life, including challenges with Barker and the impact on their children. In past interviews, she has described feeling alienated after Barker’s relationship with Kourtney began in late 2020, alleging efforts to limit her involvement.

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The situation highlights persistent friction in high-profile blended families within celebrity circles. Co-parenting dynamics often play out publicly, with allegations and counter-narratives fueling tabloid coverage. No legal action or formal disputes have arisen from Moakler’s recent statements.

As of February 28, 2026, neither Barker nor the Kardashians have commented on the podcast episode. Moakler’s remarks appear to stem from personal reflection rather than new developments, but they continue a pattern of occasional public commentary on the past relationship.

The enduring interest in the story reflects ongoing fascination with celebrity relationships, family mergers and unresolved tensions that span decades.

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Strategists see only temporary market impact from Iran strikes

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Strategists see only temporary market impact from Iran strikes

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Polestar Automotive Holding Stock Surges 20% on Record 2025 Sales Growth, Major Model Offensive Announcement

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Shares of Polestar Automotive Holding UK PLC (NASDAQ: PSNY) soared more than 20% on February 27, 2026, closing at $23.28 after the electric vehicle maker reported record retail sales for 2025 and unveiled its most ambitious product expansion yet, planning four new models by 2028 amid efforts to drive profitable growth and strengthen its position in the premium EV segment.

Polestar_headquarters_in_Gothenburg,_Sweden
Polestar_headquarters_in_Gothenburg,_Sweden

The rally, one of the stock’s strongest single-day gains in recent months, came on elevated volume of over 686,000 shares — well above average — following the February 18 announcement of full-year 2025 retail sales totaling approximately 60,119 vehicles, a 34% increase from 2024. Fourth-quarter deliveries reached an estimated 15,608 units, up 27% year over year, marking Polestar’s best performance to date despite a challenging EV market environment.

CEO Michael Lohscheller described 2025 as a year of “continuous operational progress and delivery,” highlighting the company’s ability to grow volume while expanding its retail network from 140 to 210 points globally. Europe led the surge with more than 50% sales growth, underscoring Polestar’s strength in key premium markets.

In conjunction with the sales update, Polestar detailed its “largest model offensive in its history,” committing to four new vehicles over the next three years:

– Polestar 5, the four-door Grand Tourer revealed in 2025, with deliveries starting summer 2026.
– A new variant of the current best-seller Polestar 4, offering enhanced versatility and targeting a broader customer base, with deliveries beginning in Q4 2026.
– A completely new successor to the iconic Polestar 2 sedan, planned for early 2027 launch.
– Polestar 7, a compact premium SUV entering the high-demand segment, slated for 2028.

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The company also outlined expectations for 2026: low double-digit retail volume growth with a disciplined approach, continued retail network expansion of around 30%, and a greater focus on the retail channel to drive quality sales. Financial guidance will accompany full-year 2025 results, expected in late February or early March 2026.

The announcements reframed investor sentiment after earlier 2026 weakness, when shares traded near $12-$16 amid concerns over cash burn, EV demand slowdowns and competition from Tesla and legacy automakers. Polestar has leaned on Volvo parent Geely for support, including recent financing facilities, while prioritizing refreshed models over all-new developments to conserve cash and boost European sales.

Analysts responded with mixed but generally constructive views. Some praised the product roadmap for targeting high-value segments and profit pools, while others noted execution risks in a volatile market. Cantor Fitzgerald downgraded the stock to Underweight in February, citing a “disappointing” outlook, but others maintained neutral or buy ratings, with consensus targets around $20-$25 implying potential upside from current levels.

Polestar’s market capitalization hovered around $2.1 billion to $2.7 billion post-rally, with a 52-week range spanning approximately $11.75 to $42.60. The stock has shown volatility tied to broader EV sector dynamics, including supply chain issues, subsidy changes and shifting consumer demand.

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The company continues to emphasize its premium positioning, advanced technology from Geely and Volvo partnerships, and sustainability focus. Polestar also announced a change in independent auditors, transitioning to PricewaterhouseCoopers effective after approval at the 2026 annual general meeting.

As Polestar prepares for its biggest expansion phase, the 2025 sales milestone and forward-looking strategy have injected fresh momentum into the stock. Investors will monitor upcoming full-year results, delivery updates and progress on the new models for signs of sustained profitability and market share gains in a competitive EV landscape.

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Q4 results may spark selective market rebound: Daljeet Kohli

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Q4 results may spark selective market rebound: Daljeet Kohli
Amid heightened volatility and sharp stock-specific reactions to earnings, Daljeet Kohli advocates a disciplined bottom-up investment strategy, arguing that broad sectoral or thematic bets may not work in the current environment.

Talking to ETNow, Kohli noted that market dispersion has increased significantly, with companies being rewarded or punished purely on quarterly performance. Stocks that disappointed in Q3 were “beaten like anything,” while those delivering strong numbers saw meaningful traction.

“Wherever numbers are good, we have seen some traction there. We are believing that probably the way quarter three numbers have gone for the broader market, quarter four will also be better numbers and therefore market will start recognising these good numbers and start giving benefit to them,” he said.

Highlighting his portfolio’s performance, Kohli revealed that across 30 holdings, revenue growth stood at nearly 20%, EBITDA growth at 29%, and PAT growth at 40%. This strong earnings delivery led to a four to five percentage point outperformance versus the broader market, especially after a sharp drawdown in December and January followed by a strong recovery in early February.

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On microfinance-linked stocks, Kohli acknowledged that the sector has faced persistent challenges over the past two years. While regulatory guardrails had begun stabilizing and regional issues in states like Karnataka and Tamil Nadu were subsiding, fresh concerns emerging from Bihar have renewed pressure. He explained that microfinance institutions (MFIs), which cater to vulnerable borrower segments, remain exposed to regulatory and political interventions.


Although regulations technically exclude registered NBFCs and banks, ground-level realities make distinctions difficult during collections, impacting sentiment and growth expectations. Kohli prefers companies transitioning away from pure MFI exposure toward more diversified lending models, such as small finance banking structures. However, he cautioned that north-based lenders with higher regional exposure may face continued near-term pain.
On the IT sector, Kohli remains cautious despite significant valuation corrections. He believes much of the derating has already occurred, but uncertainty around AI-led disruption and global demand, particularly in the US, makes it premature to deploy fresh capital. While management commentary has turned optimistic, he stressed that execution remains the key variable.
“We believe that there are other relatively much better sectors as of now available, so one should look at those sectors rather than going into this,” he said.

The critical question, he said, is whether IT firms can adapt AI to improve efficiency without eroding billing revenues. If AI reduces manpower requirements for clients, companies must demonstrate cost savings translating into stable or improved margins. Kohli prefers to wait for tangible evidence in quarterly numbers before reconsidering exposure.

In the auto space, Kohli expressed a clear preference for commercial vehicles (CVs), citing strong recent data and positive momentum for OEMs like Tata Motors and Ashok Leyland. However, instead of investing directly in large OEMs, he prefers midcap ancillaries — including forging companies, axle manufacturers, spring makers, and CV-focused tyre players.

In two-wheelers, he sees TVS Motor as a standout performer across segments, including EVs, and favors ancillary companies benefiting from its growth.

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