Connect with us
DAPA Banner

Business

Is MCX stock too expensive after doubling money in just 1 year? A CME case study explains it

Published

on

Is MCX stock too expensive after doubling money in just 1 year? A CME case study explains it
Shares of Multi Commodity Exchange of India have turned multibagger over the past year, rallying over 100% on the back of an unprecedented surge in bullion prices.

In 2025, silver soared 170%, while gold climbed over 60%. The momentum spilled into 2026, with silver rising more than 70% in the first two months before correcting sharply, tumbling 42% from its January 29 record high of Rs 4.20 lakh. Gold, too, has cooled off, slipping 20% from its peak of Rs 1.93 lakh.

The sharp reversal triggered higher margin requirements aimed at curbing volatility. After nearly a month of turbulence and wide price swings, MCX and NSE withdrew the additional 7% and 3% margins on silver and gold contracts, respectively, starting February 19. The easing provided relief to sentiment, pushing MCX shares up as much as x% on the BSE today.

But after a 113% run-up, the key question is: has the stock run ahead of fundamentals?

Advertisement

During FY21, when crude oil prices turned negative amid the Covid shock, MCX sharply increased margin requirements on crude futures. The immediate impact was visible in volumes. Average daily turnover (ADTV) in crude futures plunged from Rs 17,200 crore in February 2020 to Rs 3,300 crore in April 2020.


Crude options premium ADTV rose as volatility surged. Premium turnover as a share of notional turnover increased from 2.2% in February 2020 to 3.9% in March 2020 and further to 8.3% in April 2020. Over the next few years, participation structurally shifted towards options. Crude options premium ADTV expanded from around Rs 5.5 crore in FY21 to Rs 2,120 crore in FY25 and about Rs 2,400 crore in FY26-to-date.
Since early February 2026, gold prices have declined roughly 10%, while silver is down about 33%. In response, average margin requirements for silver futures jumped from 15% earlier to 72% in February 2026. For gold futures, margins increased from 10% to 30%. The result has been a sharp contraction in futures activity. Gold futures ADTV fell 41% month-on-month to Rs 33,600 crore in February 2026-to-date, while silver futures ADTV declined 58% to Rs 22,700 crore over the same period.Yet, mirroring the crude episode of 2020, options activity has picked up. Premium turnover as a share of overall turnover in gold and silver options increased in late January and February 2026, indicating a shift in trader preference rather than an outright drop in participation.

Is the multiple really stretched?

The CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) is the world’s largest commodity derivatives exchange by open interest. Between 2004 and 2007, CME witnessed exponential growth in volumes, according to ICICI Securities. Options contracts traded rose from 48 million in CY04 to 107 million in CY07. Futures contracts doubled from 211 million to 432 million over the same period.

The surge in activity was accompanied by a sharp re-rating. CME’s trailing P/E multiple expanded from 24.62x in January 2004 to a peak of 49.31x in November 2006. Notably, the stock traded above 40x trailing earnings for 24 months between September 2005 and August 2008.

Advertisement

Outlook

The domestic brokerage has an Add rating and a target price of Rs 2,780 per share. That implies an upside potential of 19% from current levels. MCX’s futures average daily traded volume (ADTV) stood at Rs 55,800 crore for 9MFY26 and Rs 1,09,700 crore for January FY26-to-date. Based on the current trend, futures ADTV is projected at Rs 66,500 crore in FY26E, rising to Rs 80,000 crore in FY27E and Rs 90,000 crore in FY28E. These estimates imply a run-rate of Rs 98,700 crore in the remaining three months of FY26.

In the options segment, at the prevailing run rate, options premium ADTV is estimated at Rs 6,200 crore in FY26, Rs 8,100 crore in FY27 and Rs 9,500 crore in FY28, implying Rs 9,200 crore in the final quarter of FY26.

Also read | As AI panic grips IT stocks, where are market opportunities for big and small investors?

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

Advertisement
Continue Reading
Click to comment

You must be logged in to post a comment Login

Leave a Reply

Business

Form 13D/A Stardust Power Inc. For: 3 April

Published

on


Form 13D/A Stardust Power Inc. For: 3 April

Continue Reading

Business

First Resource Bancorp, Inc. (FRSB) Presents at Banking Virtual Investor Conference – Slideshow

Published

on

OneWater Marine Inc. (ONEW) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

First Resource Bancorp, Inc. (FRSB) Presents at Banking Virtual Investor Conference – Slideshow

Continue Reading

Business

Lucid misses first-quarter vehicle delivery estimates on supplier disruptions

Published

on

Lucid misses first-quarter vehicle delivery estimates on supplier disruptions


Lucid misses first-quarter vehicle delivery estimates on supplier disruptions

Continue Reading

Business

Form 13D/A WILLIS LEASE FINANCE CORP For: 3 April

Published

on


Form 13D/A WILLIS LEASE FINANCE CORP For: 3 April

Continue Reading

Business

Apple SVP O’Brien sells $7.6m in AAPL stock

Published

on


Apple SVP O’Brien sells $7.6m in AAPL stock

Continue Reading

Business

Majalya of Trinet group sells $28,690 in stock

Published

on


Majalya of Trinet group sells $28,690 in stock

Continue Reading

Business

NeuroOne Medical Technologies shareholders approve reverse stock split and equity plan changes

Published

on


NeuroOne Medical Technologies shareholders approve reverse stock split and equity plan changes

Continue Reading

Business

Form DEF 14A Northrop Grumman For: 3 April

Published

on


Form DEF 14A Northrop Grumman For: 3 April

Continue Reading

Business

Form DEF 14A CVS Health Corporation For: 3 April

Published

on


Form DEF 14A CVS Health Corporation For: 3 April

Continue Reading

Business

NYSE And Nasdaq Shut For Holiday

Published

on

Visitors at the Statue of Liberty

NEW YORK — The U.S. stock market is closed today, Friday, April 3, 2026, as the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq observe Good Friday, one of the few non-federal holidays when major U.S. equities exchanges halt all trading.

A Wall Street sign outside the New York Stock Exchange

Both the NYSE and Nasdaq will remain shuttered for the full day in observance of the Christian holiday commemorating the crucifixion of Jesus Christ. Regular trading will resume on Monday, April 6, at the standard 9:30 a.m. to 4 p.m. Eastern Time schedule.

The closure creates a four-day Easter long weekend for Wall Street, following normal trading on Thursday, April 2. It also marks the start of a quieter period for many investors, with limited new economic data expected until next week. The bond market, however, will follow a shortened schedule, closing early at noon Eastern Time on Good Friday, according to the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association.

Good Friday has long been a traditional stock market holiday in the United States, even though it is not a federal holiday observed by all government offices or banks nationwide. The NYSE and Nasdaq have observed the closure consistently for decades, aligning with many global financial centers that also shut for the occasion. In 2026, the holiday falls on April 3, creating an extended break that some traders welcome amid recent market volatility tied to geopolitical developments.

The decision to close stems from the NYSE’s official holiday calendar, which lists Good Friday among the 10 full-day closures for 2026. Other upcoming closures include Memorial Day on May 25 and Juneteenth on June 19. Early closures at 1 p.m. ET are scheduled for the day after Thanksgiving and Christmas Eve later in the year.

Advertisement

For individual investors, the closure means no trading in U.S. equities, options or most related derivatives on major exchanges. Pre-market and after-hours sessions are also unavailable. Futures markets for equities may see limited or no activity, though some commodity and currency futures could operate on adjusted schedules.

Many brokerage platforms and apps reflect the holiday by disabling stock trading functions or displaying clear notices about the closure. Investors can still access account information, research tools and educational resources, but execution of buy or sell orders for U.S.-listed stocks will not occur until Monday.

The Good Friday shutdown coincides with the broader Easter long weekend, during which many businesses, schools and government services adjust operations. While banks generally remain open on Good Friday in most states, some local offices or services may have reduced hours. Retail and dining establishments typically operate normally, though some may see lighter foot traffic due to family gatherings or travel.

This year’s market closure comes against a backdrop of heightened global attention on energy markets and geopolitical risks. Recent weeks have seen significant swings in oil prices and broader equities due to developments in the Middle East, with investors closely monitoring any potential de-escalation that could influence sentiment when trading resumes.

Advertisement

Analysts note that holiday-shortened weeks often feature thinner liquidity and heightened volatility in the sessions immediately before and after the break. Thursday’s trading saw mixed results as participants positioned ahead of the long weekend, with some sectors showing resilience while others reflected ongoing caution.

For those planning investment activity over the weekend, experts recommend reviewing portfolios, setting limit orders that will activate on Monday, or focusing on longer-term research rather than attempting short-term trades. Cryptocurrency markets, which operate 24/7, remain open throughout the period, providing an alternative for investors seeking continuous access, though they often move independently of traditional equities.

International markets present a mixed picture over the Easter period. Many European exchanges, including those in the UK, Germany and France, are expected to close or operate with reduced hours on Good Friday and possibly Easter Monday. Asian markets, however, generally follow their standard schedules, with Japan and others unaffected by the Western holiday.

Bond trading on Good Friday will wrap up early, at noon ET, limiting activity in fixed-income securities. This partial closure can influence yields and pricing dynamics heading into the weekend.

Advertisement

Looking ahead, the week of April 6 is expected to bring a return to normalcy with fresh economic indicators. Investors will watch for any updates on inflation, employment data or corporate earnings that could shape the next leg of market movement. The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite have shown resilience in recent sessions despite external pressures, but analysts caution that the post-holiday period could see renewed focus on macroeconomic themes.

Retail investors, who have increasingly influenced market direction through apps and commission-free platforms, often use holiday downtime to catch up on news, rebalance holdings or simply step back from daily price fluctuations. Financial advisers suggest using the break to assess risk tolerance, review diversification and consider tax implications for any planned moves in the coming months.

The long weekend also highlights the importance of automated strategies such as dividend reinvestment plans or dollar-cost averaging, which continue regardless of market holidays. Robo-advisers and index funds typically process transactions based on the next available trading day.

For businesses tied to financial services, the closure means adjusted staffing and operations. Trading floors remain quiet, while support teams handle client inquiries about account access and holiday policies. Media coverage shifts toward previews of the following week or analysis of year-to-date performance.

Advertisement

Historically, post-Good Friday trading has shown varied results, with some years delivering gains as investors return refreshed and others reflecting any news that broke over the weekend. In 2026, with ongoing global uncertainties, the tone on Monday could hinge heavily on overnight developments in energy markets or diplomatic efforts.

Traders using margin accounts or options strategies should note that settlement and expiration dates adjust around holidays. The Options Clearing Corporation and other bodies publish specific calendars to guide participants.

As families across the country mark Easter with religious services, egg hunts and meals, Wall Street takes its traditional pause. The four-day break offers a moment of relative calm in an otherwise fast-paced financial year marked by significant swings.

When markets reopen on Monday, April 6, expect a full slate of activity as participants digest any weekend news and reposition for the second quarter. Volume may start lighter than average before building through the week.

Advertisement

In the meantime, investors are encouraged to use reliable sources for confirmation of market status rather than assuming based on general calendars. Official NYSE and Nasdaq websites provide the most accurate holiday schedules each year.

The U.S. stock market’s observance of Good Friday underscores the blend of tradition and practicality in modern finance. While the global economy never fully sleeps, major equities hubs still honor select cultural and religious observances that shape the annual trading rhythm.

For those wondering “is the stock market open today,” the clear answer on April 3, 2026, is no. Enjoy the long weekend, and be ready for resumed activity when the bells ring again on Monday morning.

Advertisement
Continue Reading

Trending

Copyright © 2025