The US may be the bigger trading partner, but Canada shouldn’t be counted out quite yet in the escalating trade war between the two countries.

It is the top customer for 26 US states, including Maine, Michigan, and Wisconsin, as well as being in the top three for 45 of the 50 American states – suggesting Prime Minister Mark Carney has room to manoeuvre in a trade fight.

BBC’s Jessica Murphy explains how Canada has more leverage than it may seem in the spiralling dispute.

Read the latest on the escalating tariff fight here.

Video by Eloise Alanna.

Docusign DOCU 3.70%increase; up pointing triangle raised its sales outlook for the second time this year, citing a boost from artificial intelligence-related demand.

The digital document-signing platform said Thursday it now expects annual revenue to be $3.50 billion to $3.51 billion, up from its previous guidance of $3.49 billion to $3.50 billion.

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1504 ET – Oil futures end the session little changed as the market sees the U.S.-Iran conflict going on for longer with this week’s resumption of military strikes. “Iran is trying to constrain the Strait of Hormuz, and the U.S. is trying to open it,” says Simon Wong, portfolio manager at Gabelli Funds. “There’s a dispute about how much oil is coming out, but I don’t think Iran wants to let that card go because that’s all the leverage they have at this point.” WTI for October delivery rises 0.3%, to $91.30 a barrel, in a fourth consecutive gain. Front-month Brent for November delivery slips 0.1%, to $95.52 a barrel, snapping a three-session winning streak. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

Oil Extends Rally With Iran Conflict Seen Dragging On

0855 ET – The rise in oil prices stretches into a fourth day with the resumption of fighting in the Middle East rekindling concerns about tight global supplies for longer. “Some measure of comfort had gradually been developing as increased ships were reportedly exiting the Strait of Hormuz,” Ritterbusch & Associates says in a note. But with a diplomatic solution seen far off “it is safe to say that there is no end in sight to this quagmire that is likely to keep petroleum prices much elevated through the end of this year.” WTI is up 1.6% at $92.46 a barrel, and Brent gains 1.1% to $96.65 a barrel. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

After foreign currency non-resident (bank) or FCNR(B) scheme closed in August with a bumper accretion of more than $127 billion, Jefferies said small private banks and NBFCs will benefit more while noting that the overall banking sector may see an earnings boost to the tune of Rs 10,000-11,000 crore.The bumper collections have taken the total inflows from such special schemes so far to $136.4 billion, according to provisional data released by the RBI. The scheme was launched in June to boost dollar inflows and strengthen foreign exchange reserves, allowing banks to swap eligible overseas borrowings with the central bank at concessional rates, significantly lowering their cost of funds.

While fortnightly data on credit growth won’t change much as it captures domestic credit, Jefferies noted that banks’ balance sheet credit growth can improve by 3-4 ppt as it captures the leverage provided by banks from foreign branches. For the banking sector, Jefferies expects domestic credit growth to moderate from 18% now to 15% by March 2027 as base resets in December 2026 and supply from bonds and ECB normalise.

The strong FCNR(B) inflows meanwhile can lift deposit growth from 12% pre FCNR-B to 17% (currently at 15%), Jefferies said, adding that it expects slight normalisation by the end of March 2027 to 16%. Fortnightly LDR data meanwhile will likely fall from 83% pre-FCNR-B to 80% (82% now), the international brokerage said.

What happens to banks’ margins?
Net interest margins (NIM) for banks will likely fall in the second quarter due to a timing gap in the placement of banks’ fund-raising, Jefferies said in its latest report. It added that banks are likely to quantify the short-term non-recurring impact on NIMs in their earnings print for Q2. Structurally, FCNR-B is a lower NIM business due to the double-counting of deposits and assets, and the first leg makes a 10-15 bps spread, the analysts added.
While FCNR-B deposits dilute NIMs and return on assets (ROA), they are accretive to net interest income (NII) and return on equity (ROE), Jefferies said. In fact, it estimates that at the sector level, it may boost earnings by Rs10,000-11,000 crore, annually, which is 2% of PBT. “We feel it’s better to see from the lens of an incremental profit pool, instead of margins. We feel banks may be able to normalise margins over 2-4 quarters by reducing dependence on high cost wholesale deposits, reducing share G-Secs that is held towards LCR and lower share of low-margin overseas trade financing.
Also read | Explained: What $127 billion FCNR(B) inflows mean for ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, other bank stocks

Nomura says FCNR(B) scheme gives forex firepower to RBI

Nomura in its note said that the bumper finale to the FCNR(B) scheme has given the RBI ample foreign exchange reserves firepower, adding that the challenge now is how it will mop up the surplus liquidity. It expects this to boost the balance of payments surplus to $66 billion in FY27 from a deficit of $23.6 billion in FY26.

Motilal Oswal Financial Services meanwhile said that the record high FCNR(B) inflows have backed its estimates of a 150 bps increase in system credit growth to 15.5-16% for FY27. It noted that ICICI Bank mobilised $17.9 billion, capturing 14% market share of the total FCNR(B) inflows. SBI has garnered $9 billion a few days prior to the close and is expected to beat its $10 billion guidance. RBL Bank has added $3.4 billion, capturing 2.7% share, better than its deposit market share of nearly 0.5%.

“FIIs, who were on a selling spree before the FCNR(B) deposit scheme, have added net inflows of $4.8b in the last two months, while INR depreciation against USD has also stabilized,” Motilal noted. While net interest margins are expected to be under pressure in the near term on account of limited spread on the overseas leveraged portion of FCNR(B) deposits, the deployment of these deposits and an improving asset mix will drive faster balance sheet growth and support earnings, according to the domestic brokerage.

Also read | Which stocks should you buy ahead of the festive season? Here are Kotak Securities’ top 10 picks

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

TUPPER LAKE, N.Y. — Spain’s decision to commit up to 2 billion euros toward Europe’s Iris2 satellite constellation was directly motivated by concerns over Elon Musk’s dominant position in global satellite communications, according to Spanish Science and Innovation Minister Diana Morant, who oversees the country’s space sector.

Morant said Musk’s control over roughly two-thirds of all satellites currently operating in orbit, largely through his company SpaceX’s Starlink broadband network, factored significantly into Spain’s calculus when the government finalized its major investment in Iris2, Europe’s answer to Starlink, according to reporting from Space Intel Report.

Spain formally committed to spending up to 2 billion euros, or approximately $2.3 billion, into the Iris2 multi-orbit constellation in late July, when Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez announced the investment as part of the country’s broader Multi-orbit Satcom Special Modernization Program. The funding will support a national secure satellite broadband constellation that will ultimately be integrated into the wider European Iris2 network, while remaining under direct Spanish control.

Iris2, formally known as Infrastructure for Resilience, Interconnectivity and Security by Satellite, is being jointly managed by the European Commission and the SpaceRise consortium, a group of the continent’s leading satellite fleet operators, including SES, Eutelsat and HispaSat. The project represents Europe’s most significant effort to date to build an independent, secure satellite communications capability, reducing the bloc’s reliance on commercial providers such as SpaceX’s Starlink network for critical government, defense and emergency services communications.

Spain’s commitment marks the largest single national contribution to Iris2 announced so far among European Union member states, surpassing an earlier pledge of approximately 470 million euros, or roughly $536 million, from Poland, which is funding six dedicated satellites for the constellation’s medium-Earth-orbit layer and six more for its larger low-Earth-orbit shell.

The overall Iris2 program carries a total planned cost exceeding 15.6 billion euros, or roughly $18 billion, according to figures from the European Commission and industry reporting. The funding structure combines 11.6 billion euros in public investment from the European Commission and the European Space Agency with up to 4 billion euros contributed collectively by the three SpaceRise consortium members. The full constellation is designed to include 330 new satellites in low Earth orbit alongside 12 additional satellites in medium Earth orbit, with initial services expected to begin in 2030 following the program’s first satellite launches in 2029.

Spain’s own national contribution to the broader effort will fund a sovereign satellite communications capability comprising satellites operating across both low and medium Earth orbit, according to details of the Spanish Defense Ministry’s budget disclosure accompanying the announcement. That national system is designed to remain fully compatible with the broader Iris2 architecture while staying under direct Spanish governmental control, reflecting a broader European push toward what officials have described as sovereign satellite capabilities independent of any single foreign commercial provider.

HispaSat, part of Spain’s Indra Group, has separately been selected as the prime contractor for the ground segment of the broader Iris2 program, a role valued at more than 1.6 billion euros covering antenna infrastructure, control systems and land-based network connectivity across the constellation’s various orbital layers. That selection makes Indra the first Spanish company to secure a lead contractor role within the broader European program, further underscoring Spain’s growing stake in the project beyond its direct national funding commitment.

Musk’s Starlink network has grown rapidly since its initial launches, now comprising thousands of satellites providing broadband internet service across much of the globe, including regions with limited access to traditional terrestrial internet infrastructure. That scale has made Starlink the dominant player in the emerging low-Earth-orbit satellite broadband market, a position European officials have increasingly cited as a strategic vulnerability given the network’s status as a commercial asset controlled by a single American entrepreneur rather than a sovereign or multilateral European entity.

Concerns over reliance on Starlink for critical infrastructure have intensified across Europe in recent years, particularly in the context of the ongoing war in Ukraine, where Starlink terminals have played a significant role in maintaining military and civilian communications. That dependency has fueled broader European interest in developing independent satellite communications capabilities less exposed to decisions made by a foreign commercial operator, a dynamic that has featured prominently in policy discussions surrounding Iris2’s development.

European telecommunications companies have signaled a similarly cautious stance toward relying on Iris2 itself absent competitive terms. Telecom operators Orange and Deutsche Telekom have previously indicated they would only purchase capacity on the Iris2 constellation if the network’s offerings proved competitive with existing commercial alternatives, reflecting broader industry skepticism about whether a government-backed constellation can match the cost and performance benchmarks already established by Starlink’s commercial network.

Morant’s comments came during remarks at industry gathering in Tupper Lake, New York, where Space Intel Report covers ongoing developments across the global satellite and space industry. Her characterization of Musk’s satellite dominance as a motivating factor behind Spain’s Iris2 commitment reflects a broader pattern among European officials who have increasingly framed satellite communications sovereignty as a matter of national and continental security, rather than purely a commercial or technological consideration.

Spain’s investment adds to a growing list of national contributions to Iris2 from individual European Union member states, building on the underlying public-private partnership structure established between the European Commission, the European Space Agency and the SpaceRise consortium. With initial satellite launches still several years away and full operational capability not expected until 2030, the program remains in a relatively early phase of implementation, even as individual countries including Spain and Poland continue announcing substantial national funding commitments tied to the broader constellation.

As Iris2 continues moving through its development phase, with major manufacturing and launch contracts still being finalized among consortium members and their industrial partners, European officials are likely to continue emphasizing the strategic rationale behind the program, framing it explicitly against the backdrop of Starlink’s continued global dominance in the satellite broadband sector under Musk’s ownership through SpaceX.