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June CPI: Inflation eased following recent surge driven by Iran war

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Americans see gas price relief as costs fall annually in January 2026 CPI data

This story about the June 2026 CPI inflation report will be updated with further details.

Inflation pulled back in June after surging in prior months due to the Iran war’s impact on energy prices throughout the economy.

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The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said on Tuesday that the consumer price index (CPI) – a broad measure of how much everyday goods like gasoline, groceries and rent cost – declined 0.4% on a monthly basis in June and was up 3.5% from a year ago. The monthly decline was the largest since a 0.8% decrease in April 2020.

Expectations vs. reality

Those figures were cooler than the estimates of economists polled by LSEG, who predicted a decline of 0.1% on a monthly basis and a 3.8% increase from a year ago. They also represent a cooling trend from the 0.5% monthly increase and the 4.2% annual rise recorded in the May edition of the report.

So-called core prices, which exclude volatile measurements of gasoline and groceries to better assess price growth trends, were unchanged from a month ago and up 2.6% from last year. Both of those figures were lower than the estimates of economists polled by LSEG, who predicted a monthly increase of 0.2% and 2.8% from a year ago.

MORE AMERICANS RELYING ON CREDIT CARDS TO BUY GROCERIES, NEW STUDY FINDS

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The cost of living breakdown

High inflation has created severe financial pressures in recent years for most U.S. households, which are forced to pay more for everyday necessities like food and rent. Price hikes are particularly difficult for lower-income Americans, because they tend to spend more of their already-stretched paychecks on necessities and have less flexibility to save.

Energy prices fell 5.7% on a monthly basis – the energy index’s largest monthly decline since April 2020 – and are up 15.7% from a year ago. BLS noted that the energy index was the largest contributor to the decline in headline inflation, more than offsetting increases in indexes for food and housing.

Gasoline prices fell 9.7% in June and are up 26.7% from a year ago. Electricity prices were down 1% on a monthly basis and are up 4% from a year ago. Utility gas service prices rose 0.5% in June and are up 3% from last year.

Food prices rose 0.2% in June and are up 3% in the past year. The food at home index is 2.7% higher than a year ago, while the food away from home index is up 3.4% in the last year and both rose 0.2% on a monthly basis in June.

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A man stands at a gas station.

Energy prices fell 5.7% on a monthly basis and are up 15.7% from a year ago. (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)

The meats, poultry and fish index was 0.4% higher in June and has risen 5.7% over the past year. Beef and veal prices rose 1.2% on a monthly basis and are up 11.8% from a year ago. Egg prices increased 4.3% in June but are down 27.9% over the last year as supplies normalized after an avian flu outbreak. Prices for fruits and vegetables decreased 0.2% in June and are up 5.3% from a year ago.

Housing prices rose 0.1% on a monthly basis, which was the smallest one-month change since January 2021, and are up 3.3% from a year ago. Tenants’ and household insurance costs rose 0.2% from a month ago and are up 5.9% in the last year.

Transportation services prices declined 0.3% in June and are 3.4% higher than a year ago. Airline fares increased 0.2% on a monthly basis but are up 26.5% compared with a year ago.

A United Airlines jet takes off from Los Angeles International Airport.

Airline fares increased 0.2% on a monthly basis. (Mike Blake/Reuters)

DELTA CEO ED BASTIAN SAYS AIRLINE FARES WILL STAY ELEVATED EVEN IF JET FUEL PRICES FALL

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What experts are saying

Ellen Zentner, chief economic strategist for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, said that the “Fed was losing patience with high inflation, and today’s cooler-than-expected report gives them room to breathe.”

“By surprising on the downside, it relieves immediate pressure for action, allows the Fed to gather additional inflation data over the summer, and makes it considerably easier for policymakers to maintain their current wait-and-see stance through the next meeting,” Zentner added.

Jeffrey Roach, chief economist for LPL Financial, said: “After today’s benign core inflation release, it appears less likely that the FOMC will raise rates over the next few meetings. However, we may still be at an inflection point, given the risk that the energy shock could spill over into other categories of consumer prices. A positive resolution with Iran before the end of the summer is becoming increasingly important.”

What does it mean for the Fed?

The Federal Reserve has held interest rates steady at recent meetings amid concerns about elevated inflation, and with readings still coming in well above the central bank’s 2% target, policymakers are likely to leave rates unchanged at the next few meetings.

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The CME FedWatch tool showed an 85.6% probability that the benchmark federal funds rate will remain at its current target range of 3.5% to 3.75% at the Fed’s next meeting in late July, up from 58.3% a day ago.

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The tool also shows a 0% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the end of the year, with just a 19.4% chance that rates remain at their current levels – with a 42.2% chance of a 25-basis-point hike and a 29.7% chance of 50-basis-points worth of hikes by the end of the year.

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Trump’s image set for new $1 gold coin celebrating America’s 250th anniversary

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Trump’s image set for new $1 gold coin celebrating America’s 250th anniversary

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced Wednesday that the U.S. Mint will begin striking a new $1 gold coin featuring President Donald Trump to mark America’s 250th anniversary.

Bessent said in an X post that the coin will honor “the enduring legacy of liberty” and serve as a “lasting symbol of patriotism.”

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“Featuring President Trump, it celebrates the strength of American values, and the promise of a nation dedicated to preserving freedom for all,” Bessent wrote.

Bessent also shared an image of the coin, which shows Trump’s portrait on one side. The word “LIBERTY” appears along the top edge, with “1776 ~ 2026” along the bottom and “IN GOD WE TRUST” on the right side.

The reverse side features a presidential-style eagle shield design with “250” in the center. The outer edge reads “UNITED STATES OF AMERICA” and “ONE DOLLAR.”

US TREASURY PLANNING TO MINT $1 COINS WITH TRUMP’S IMAGE

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President Trump pumping fist while boarding Air Force One

President Donald Trump boards Air Force One at Morristown Municipal Airport in Morristown, New Jersey, on June 21, 2025.  (Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images)

Federal law generally bars living people from appearing on U.S. currency. The Trump administration has said the coin is allowed under a 2020 law authorizing special coin designs for America’s 250th anniversary, according to Forbes.

The announcement quickly drew reaction on social media, with some critics calling it a “vanity project” and supporters praising it as a patriotic tribute.

“The irony is incredible – while Americans are pinching pennies to afford the skyrocketing costs of groceries, housing, and healthcare, the Trump administration is producing coins featuring Trump’s face,” Rep. Jerry Nadler, D-N.Y., wrote on X. “Donald Trump and Republican lawmakers have plunged our country into a devastating affordability crisis, and now they’re indulging Trump in another golden vanity project.”

TRUMP CELEBRATES $250B MICRON INVESTMENT, SAYS AMERICA IS ‘GETTING SHOVELS IN THE GROUND’

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Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent arrives for House committee hearing.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is pictured on June 4, 2026, in Washington, D.C. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky., also criticized the move.

“Congratulations, we’ve entered the end stages. Eliminate the penny, plug the nickel, and make some commemorative gold coins nobody can afford,” Massie wrote. “I feel sorry for the folks who will be sold worthless knockoffs of this by the usual grifters.”

Meanwhile, others praised the coin as a fitting tribute to the country’s semiquincentennial.

“Whether you’re a numismatist, history buff, or just love a strong symbol of American resilience, these coins are sure to be in high demand. They’re a fitting tribute to the nation’s enduring spirit of liberty and determination on this milestone birthday,” one user wrote on X.

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TRUMP SCRAPS PROPOSED STRAIT OF HORMUZ SHIPPING FEE FOR GULF STATES’ INVESTMENT DEALS

Treasury Department building

A February 6, 2025, photo shows the US Treasury in Washington, DC. (Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images / Getty Images)

FOX Business first learned last year that the Treasury Department was considering a plan to mint new $1 coins bearing Trump’s image as part of a push to commemorate the 250th anniversary of America’s founding.

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“Despite the radical left’s forced shutdown of our government, the facts are clear: Under the historic leadership of President Donald J. Trump, our nation is entering its 250th anniversary stronger, more prosperous, and better than ever,” a Treasury spokesperson told FOX Business at the time.

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Raybern’s debuts frozen sliders

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Raybern’s debuts frozen sliders

The sliders are formulated with 9 grams of protein.

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Nifty to hit 27,000 in one year? PL Capital says Middle East crisis, El Nino can play a spoil sport; names 15 top picks

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Nifty to hit 27,000 in one year? PL Capital says Middle East crisis, El Nino can play a spoil sport; names 15 top picks
Global stock markets saw a sharp downturn earlier this year, but Dalal Street has begun to show strong resilience recently. In this backdrop, PL Capital increased its Nifty 50 target to 27,019, while cautioning that the prolonged West Asia crisis and impact of the mega El Nino year can play a “spoil sport”.

The Nifty target set by the domestic brokerage implies an upside potential of more than 12% from the benchmark index’s closing level of 24,078 on Wednesday. However, it cautioned that Dalal Street is now passing through a phase filled with uncertainty, and markets are likely to remain highly volatile. With resumption of hostilities in West Asia and rising probability of EL Nino, PL Capital remains cautiously optimistic with a stock specific approach.

The benchmark index has rallied over 7% in the past two months and nearly 8% from its 52-week low mainly due to the sharp decline in crude oil prices to $70 per barrel and an interim ceasefire in the West Asia war, the domestic brokerage noted, adding that the Indian economy has been one of the most resilient ones and Q1 FY27 has shown a steady demand trend.

PL Capital said the FCNR bonds issue is likely to provide a flip to credit availability by 3% in the system and boost growth. However, despite a cooling off in crude prices, it expects inflation to rise steadily due to the negative base of food inflation from June onwards. “Markets have been firm on recent pick up in monsoons, however, with a 10-15% deficit in H1 monsoons, super El Nino can increase inflation and impact rural demand in H2 2027,” it added.

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Also read: Mukul Agrawal trims stake in this smallcap infra firm, likely exits Surya Roshni in Q1. Do you own?


Nifty 50 is trading at nearly a 12% discount to its 15- year average PE although the multiples have increased in the recent rally, PL Capital noted, adding that it values the benchmark index at a 10% discount to the 15-year average PE of 17. 6x with FY28 EPS of Rs 1,532.
Which sectors have a positive outlookIn this backdrop, PL Capital believes that sectors like banks, non banking financial companies, capital goods or defence, telecom, jewellery, hospitals and consumer durables have a positive outlook. It however remained cautious on IT services, exports, cement, cements as well as oil and gas segments. “Resumption of hostilities in West Asia and El Nino remains a key risk to our call,” it said in a report dated July 10.

Notably, the conflict has now escalated further and oil prices have inched up as a result of Trump’s flipflop policies and closure of Strait of Hormuz, spooking investors.

PL Capital’s top stock picks

Among the large caps, PL Capital named Bharti Airtel, Britannia Industries, ICICI Bank, Kotak, Mahindra Bank, Larsen & Toubro, Shriram Finance and Titan Company as its top picks.

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In the broader market space, Blue Star, CESC, DOMS Industries, Engineers India, HealthCare Global Enterprises, Ingersoll-Rand (India), Jindal Stainless and Rainbow Children’s Medicare were PL Capital’s top small and midcap picks.

Also read: Rekha Jhunjhunwala likely exits this smallcap metal stock after 90% rally in 1 year. Do you own?

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

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Form 4 Eos Energy Enterprises Inc For: 15 July

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Form 4 Eos Energy Enterprises Inc For: 15 July

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PayPal shares jump over 15% after Stripe, Advent make $53 billion buyout offer

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PayPal shares jump over 15% after Stripe, Advent make $53 billion buyout offer
PayPal shares rose about 15% in premarket trading after Reuters reported that payments company Stripe and private equity firm Advent International have made a joint offer to buy the company for more than $53 billion.

The offer values PayPal at $60.50 per share, according to the Reuters report, which cited two people familiar with the matter. The price is about 28% higher than PayPal’s closing share price on Tuesday.

The proposal was submitted earlier this month and is backed by about $50 billion in committed financing from banks, one of the people told Reuters. PayPal, Stripe and Advent declined to comment.

Stripe and Advent had first approached PayPal in early April, the report said. They have not yet received a response from PayPal and are looking to move talks forward in the coming weeks.

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Also Read: ‘We faltered, did not move quickly:’ How IBM CEO Arvind Krishna’s statement led to $70 billion wipeout


Under the offer, Stripe and Advent would jointly own PayPal, with both holding equal stakes. The proposal does not involve breaking up the company, Reuters reported. The talks are still at an early stage and there is no certainty that they will lead to a deal.
PayPal shares were last up 16.2% in premarket trading after the report.PayPal was one of the earliest names in digital payments and became a major online checkout brand after being founded in the late 1990s. However, the company has faced rising competition in recent years from Apple Pay, Google Pay and other payment platforms.

The company was a big winner during the pandemic, when online shopping and digital payments surged. Its market value peaked at about $360 billion in 2021. Since then, growth has slowed and investor confidence has weakened. PayPal’s market capitalisation fell to as low as about $36 billion this year, and the stock has lost more than 40% of its value over the past 12 months.

A buyout offer from Stripe and Advent could give PayPal investors a large premium after a long period of weak stock performance. It could also bring together PayPal’s large consumer and merchant base with Stripe’s strength in online payments infrastructure.

After taking over in March, CEO Enrique Lores began a turnaround plan aimed at simplifying the company and returning it to stronger growth.

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In April, PayPal split its operations into three units: checkout, consumer financial services including Venmo, and payments and crypto. The company also made several management changes as part of the restructuring.

The offer now puts PayPal at the centre of what could become one of the largest payments industry deals in recent years. Investors will watch whether PayPal agrees to engage with Stripe and Advent, or whether the company decides to continue with its own turnaround plan.

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Thailand News Roundup: Visa Reforms, Bangkok Bar Fire Tragedy and Economic Shifts

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ASEAN Headlines Update - Thailand Business News

Thailand has been at the center of significant developments across immigration policy, public safety, and economic sectors. This summary examines the key stories shaping the nation’s current landscape.

Visa Policy Overhaul

Thailand has implemented sweeping changes to its visa framework, affecting travelers from 65 countries and territories. In a notable reversal, the government scrapped its plan to end visa-free entry for Indian tourists, though it significantly altered the terms of access. According to Bangkok Post, the visa-free period has been halved for many nationalities, with numerous countries being dropped from the visa-exempt list entirely.

Indian travelers will now receive 30-day visa-free entry, down from the previous 60-day allowance, following a notable decline in tourist arrivals. This adjustment comes as Thailand grapples with an overall 3.09% decrease in foreign arrivals so far this year, prompting officials to recalibrate entry policies to balance security concerns with tourism revenue goals.

The changes have drawn mixed reactions internationally. Swiss seasonal retirees have expressed dismay over the tightened policies, according to SWI swissinfo.ch, highlighting how the reforms affect not just tourists but longer-term visitors who have relied on extended visa-free stays.

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Tourism Sector Response

In response to softening visitor numbers, Thailand has unveiled a THB2.45 billion tourism stimulus package, featuring 500,000 co-payment subsidies and airfare discounts designed to reinvigorate the sector. The government is also pursuing new tourism partnerships and infrastructure projects, including a newly opened Sadao-Malaysia road intended to strengthen cross-border tourism between the two nations.

Bangkok Bar Fire Tragedy

A devastating fire at a Bangkok music venue has claimed at least 32 lives, with the death toll rising as additional victims succumbed to injuries in hospital. Investigations have revealed that flammable decor and lax safety enforcement transformed the popular pub into what officials describe as a “death trap,” according to Reuters reporting.

Experts have noted that a flashover event—a point at which trapped patrons had no chance of escape—occurred rapidly, trapping victims inside. This tragedy has reignited discussions about why Thailand continues experiencing similar nightspot disasters, with CNA characterizing such incidents as unfortunately recurring due to systemic enforcement gaps.

Economic and Trade Developments

Thailand’s economic landscape shows notable activity across multiple fronts. The government has approved measures to bolster clean energy markets, signaling a push toward sustainable infrastructure. Simultaneously, authorities are planning higher power tariffs for data center owners, reflecting efforts to manage growing energy demands from the tech sector while providing relief on household power bills.

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In the automotive sector, Hyundai will begin exporting battery electric vehicles to Australia from its Thailand production base, while BYD Thailand celebrated its local plant’s second anniversary with deliveries surpassing 130,000 units—underscoring Thailand’s growing role as a regional EV manufacturing hub.

Trade tensions also feature prominently, with Thailand navigating new US tariffs that analysts argue necessitate market diversification strategies. Additionally, Malaysia and Thailand are seeking technical solutions to resolve an ongoing shrimp and sea bass trade dispute affecting regional seafood commerce.

Financial and Banking Sector Notes

The financial sector faced scrutiny after Thailand’s most profitable bank was forced to pay a beauty queen following a $124,000 AI-related scam, highlighting emerging cybersecurity vulnerabilities. Meanwhile, Muangthai Capital’s new CEO defended the role of microfinance institutions, arguing that such services remain essential for underserved populations who would otherwise struggle financially.

Regional Diplomacy and Security

Thailand continues playing an active diplomatic role regarding Myanmar. An ASEAN envoy met with Myanmar opposition groups in Thailand, while officials confirmed that Myanmar’s leader will visit Thailand next month. Additionally, Thailand is pressuring the Myanmar junta for direct envoy access to detained leader Aung San Suu Kyi, with Bangkok expressing continued hope for a potential meeting.

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On security matters, human rights organizations have raised concerns, with Human Rights Watch urging Thailand not to forcibly return Chinese dissidents, and RSF joining Safeguard Defenders in calling for a halt to the forcible return of Chinese journalist Bai Zhaodong. Separately, authorities have cracked down on an online gambling network and busted a Thai boxing camp running a child sex trafficking ring, rescuing 15 victims.

Social and Cultural Highlights

Beyond politics and economics, Thailand has seen diverse cultural moments. A 2,000-year-old gold ring bearing an inscribed message was discovered at an archaeological dig site, drawing international attention. Additionally, a newly identified long-necked dinosaur species was documented in Thailand, contributing to paleontological research in the region.

The country’s animal welfare efforts were also spotlighted through a photo essay examining Thailand’s animal rescue network dedicated to saving stray animals, showcasing grassroots conservation efforts across the nation.

Thailand’s current news cycle reflects a nation balancing tourism recovery, public safety reforms, and economic modernization amid regional diplomatic responsibilities. As the government refines visa policies and addresses safety concerns following the Bangkok fire tragedy, stakeholders across sectors continue monitoring how these developments will shape the country’s trajectory in the coming months.

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California grocery prices could rise as plastic packaging fees take effect

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California grocery prices could rise as plastic packaging fees take effect

California consumers could soon see higher grocery bills as the state begins implementing a sweeping packaging law that shifts recycling costs from taxpayers to manufacturers, expenses some businesses warn could eventually be passed on to shoppers.

Beginning next month, California will start collecting preliminary fees under the state’s Plastic Pollution Prevention and Packaging Producer Responsibility Act, a 2022 law that requires companies to help pay for the recycling and disposal of the packaging they sell. 

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State regulators say the measure is intended to reduce plastic waste while encouraging businesses to use more recyclable materials.

Companies that use harder-to-recycle packaging are expected to pay more than those using recyclable or compostable materials, creating an incentive to redesign packaging over the coming years. Producers must ensure all covered packaging sold in California is recyclable or compostable by 2032.

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california grocery store

California will start collecting preliminary fees under the state’s Plastic Pollution Prevention and Packaging Producer Responsibility Act. (David Paul Morris/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

CalRecycle estimates the law could increase household costs by up to $190 per year — about $66 per person — if manufacturers pass all compliance costs on to consumers. The agency says the actual increase could be lower if companies absorb some of those expenses themselves.

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The state estimates roughly 5,700 large producers will be subject to the new requirements, with average annual compliance costs topping $450,000. Businesses that buy packaged goods could also face higher costs if manufacturers raise prices to offset the new fees.

california grocery store

California estimates roughly 5,700 large producers will be subject to the new requirements. (Mario Tama/Getty Images)

CalRecycle says the law is intended to reduce plastic pollution, expand recycling infrastructure and shift responsibility for managing packaging waste from taxpayers and local governments to producers.

california grocery store

People shop at a supermarket Feb. 13, 2023, in Los Angeles.  (Frederic J. Brown/AFP via Getty Images)

Some industry groups, however, argue the state’s projections underestimate the potential impact on consumers and have warned grocery prices could rise more sharply as companies adjust to the new requirements.

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FOX Business reached out to CalRecycle for comment.

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US stocks today: US stocks end higher on cool inflation data, strong earnings

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US stocks today: US stocks end higher on cool inflation data, strong earnings
Wall Street stocks gained ground as softening inflation ​data and a robust beginning of second-quarter earnings season put investors in a buying mood.

All three major stock indexes closed modestly higher despite weakness in semiconductors, with consumer-focused retail and travel/leisure clear outperformers.

PayPal surged after sources told Reuters that Stripe and private equity firm Advent ‌International have jointly offered ⁠to acquire ⁠it for $60.50 per share – representing around a 28% premium to its Tuesday close.

A second day of solid bank earnings added momentum to an auspicious ​beginning to second-quarter reporting season. BlackRock and Morgan Stanley both beat quarterly profit expectations.

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“Everything looks great with the bank earnings,” said Mike Dickson, ​head of portfolio management at Horizon Investments in Charlotte, North Carolina. “I would not be at all surprised to see another bang-out quarter.”


Analysts currently expect second-quarter year-on-year S&P 500 earnings growth of 23.7%, according to the most recent data from LSEG.
According ​to preliminary data, the S&P 500 gained 29.00 points, or 0.38%, to ⁠end at ‌7,572.59 points, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 161.87 points, or 0.62%, to 26,268.88. The Dow Jones ​Industrial Average rose 155.53 ​points, or 0.30%, to 52,663.80.COOLING INFLATION, WARSH TESTIMONY CONTINUES

The Labor Department’s Producer Price Index (PPI) ⁠report provided a second straight day of cooler-than-expected inflation data, even as newly ​confirmed U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh appeared before the Senate Banking Committee in ​his second day of Congressional testimony.

Combined with Tuesday’s CPI report, the PPI data suggests that inflation took a step in the right direction last month even though it remains elevated due to the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran. This eased near-term pressure on the central bank to raise its key interest rate.

“My fear going into this week was, we could get a hot CPI print, inflation above 3.8%, and we didn’t get it; we got a cooler reading of ‌3.5%,” said Lauren Cassidy, chief investment officer of Founders 100 ETF, in Dallas. “So that allows the Federal Reserve to have the opportunity to keep rates flat or cut them later this year, ​which is good ​news for the market.”

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Financial markets ⁠are currently pricing in a 10.2% likelihood that the Fed will implement a 25 basis point rate hike at the conclusion of this month’s monetary policy meeting, down from 31.0% a week ago, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.

Even so, ​this week’s inflation data is focused on last month, as investors were growing optimistic that negotiators were moving toward a peaceful resolution to the Middle East conflict. That optimism has faded in recent days as the U.S. and Iran staged escalating airstrikes, vying for control over the Strait of Hormuz. That could result in renewed price pressures.

Fed Governor Lisa Cook said she is “prepared to act” if inflation does not soon begin to slow.

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Form 4 Hexcel Corp For: 15 July

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Form 4 Hexcel Corp For: 15 July

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Bank Clients Can’t Stop Trading Stocks

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Alphabet Is Selling 100-Year Debt as Part of a Big Bond Sale

Wall Street’s business of facilitating trades on behalf of clients has been fast-growing, and analysts were closely watching whether momentum would continue. Across the Street, fees from stock trades shot up, while fees related to bonds, commodities and other non-equity products also rose.

Goldman Sachs’s equity trading revenue rose 72% from a year ago, while fixed income, commodities and currency trading was up 32%.

At JPMorgan, stock trading revenue was up 86% from a year ago and fixed income was up 6%.

Bank of America’s sales and trading revenue for equities was up 70%, while FICC was up about 9%.

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