Asian equities fell as escalating tensions in Iran weighed on sentiment, while oil rose to its highest level since August.

Stocks opened lower in Japan and Australia, indicating a headwind to sentiment after two days of advances for a gauge of the region’s stocks. Markets were also set to reopen in Hong Kong after the Lunar New Year holidays, while those for mainland China remained shut. The dollar was poised to notch its best week since mid-November.

Crude rallied as President Donald Trump said the US has to “make a meaningful deal” with Iran, adding that the next 10 days will tell whether there will be an accord. Treasuries edged higher on Thursday and gold hovered around $5,000 an ounce. US stocks also fell, with alternative asset managers facing sharp declines after a private credit fund halted redemptions.

Caution has resurfaced in markets as US moves on Iran introduced a fresh layer of geopolitical risk, halting a tentative rebound in equities and dampening broader risk appetite. The renewed tensions threaten to derail a nascent recovery that had begun to take hold after weeks of volatility driven by concerns over AI-related disruption across sectors and companies.

With Iran’s military proxies greatly weakened and the economy in crisis, the country doesn’t find itself in a very strong negotiating position, so the markets likely expect a diplomatic resolution, according to Dennis Follmer at Montis Financial.

“Right now, stocks have not priced in the tensions between the US and Iran,” he said.
The US military is stationing a vast array of forces in the Middle East, including two aircraft carriers, fighter jets and refueling tankers, giving Trump the option for a major attack against Iran as he pressures the country to strike a deal over its nuclear program.American military buildup in the Middle East means Iran’s window to reach a diplomatic agreement over its atomic activities is at risk of closing, according to the head of the United Nations nuclear watchdog. A potential war would put flows at risk from a region that pumps about a third of the world’s oil.

“Crude oil prices are rising on the anticipation of possible military action in Iran,” said Louis Navellier at Navellier & Associates. “The US and Iran are expected to meet again, and those negotiations are expected to be closely watched.”

West Texas Intermediate traded below $67 a barrel, after adding about 7% in the prior two sessions, while Brent closed near $72.

Some traders also attributed the risk-off mood to caution ahead of Friday’s readings on the economy and inflation, particularly after minutes of the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting showed renewed concerns about price pressures. Also, the US Supreme Court has scheduled Friday as its next opinion day amid a global wait for a ruling on Trump’s signature tariffs.

Also dimming sentiment among investors was Blue Owl Capital Inc.’s decision to restrict withdrawals from one of its private credit funds that raised concerns over the risks bubbling under the surface of the $1.8 trillion market. Its shares sank about 6% Thursday, dragging down industry peers like Apollo Global Management Inc., Ares Management Corp. and TPG Inc.

Traders also kept an eye on the latest US economic readings.

On Friday, the government will issue its first estimate of gross domestic product for the fourth quarter, a period that included the longest-ever federal government shutdown. The latest report card on the economy is projected to show growth cooled to a still-solid annualized pace after expanding in the prior quarter at the quickest rate in two years.

The bond market’s consensus view that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at least twice more this year is at odds with US economic resilience, say portfolio managers at Invesco and Carmignac, who are betting against Treasuries.

Yields on US government debt are close to their lowest levels in months, after a rally spurred by haven demand amid stock-market jitters and last week’s tame January inflation reading. The bullish tilt suggests many investors expect ebbing price pressures will give officials room to slash borrowing costs later this year on any signs of labour-market weakness.

It’s not an outlook that Invesco, Carmignac and BNP Paribas SA share, however. As they see it, the economy looks too sturdy to build in much more Fed easing.

For one thing, January job growth beat projections. Meanwhile, companies are pouring money into the economy to invest in artificial intelligence. And minutes from the Fed’s last meeting showed policymakers appeared wary of lowering rates, with “several” suggesting hikes may be needed if inflation stays above the central bank’s 2% target.

Macro strategists at TS Lombard told clients this week to bet on fewer rate reductions in the second half of 2026. For Rob Waldner, fixed-income chief strategist at Invesco, the base case is one cut this year.

But it’s “increasingly likely there are no cuts” given the strength of recent economic data, he said. The firm, which manages more than $2.2 trillion, is underweight Treasuries given expectations for improving growth and above-target inflation.
At Carmignac in Paris, Guillaume Rigeade has a similar view. He’s short US Treasuries and sees the 10-year yield drifting toward 4.5% in the coming months, the highest since mid-2025, from roughly 4.1% now. The rate, a benchmark for global borrowing, sank to about 4.02% on Tuesday, the lowest since November. “They will cut rates, but it is not justified by the inflation outlook and growth,” said Rigeade, co-head of fixed income at Carmignac, which manages about ₹41 billion ($48 billion).

Rigeade is looking in part to November’s US mid-term elections. With President Donald Trump’s job approval ratings waning, according to some polls, the administration may push for more spending to benefit households and businesses, adding to headwinds forbonds, the fund manager said.

Recent data has given both the bond bulls and bears something to point to. The headline annual consumer inflation figure of 2.4% for January week signaled cooling, but services prices accelerated.

Mumbai: Shares of oil exploration companies rallied in a weak market on Thursday as renewed geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran raised concerns of supply disruptions, pushing crude prices higher. Oil India surged 5.2%, while ONGC gained 3.6%, tracking the uptick in Brent crude prices. Among oil marketing companies, HPCL dropped nearly 5%, and Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL) fell 3.4%.

Brent crude futures rose over 1% to $71.11 per barrel.

“Elevated brent crude prices are supportive for upstream players such as ONGC and Oil India, as higher realisations strengthen margins and cash flows,” said Ankit Garg, head of Equity Investments, Wealthy Nivesh PMS.

For oil marketing companies, an increase in crude prices leads to margin pressure because input costs move up immediately. And if these companies are unable to pass on the costs entirely, it impacts their profitability.
The pressure on oil prices stemmed from developments involving Iran, where joint naval drills with Russia in the Sea of Oman and the northern Indian Ocean heightened supply concerns.

Iran temporarily shut parts of the Strait of Hormuz as a security precaution during military exercises. Given that the route is one of the world’s most critical oil shipping routes, any disruption tends to amplify volatility in crude markets.
Impact on operating performance will be a function of the duration for which crude oil prices stay elevated, said Sunny Agrawal, head of Fundamental Research at SBI Securities. “We believe, in the longer run, crude oil prices may remain subdued, as demand is muted and, hence, any spike in stock prices of oil exploration companies should be seen as an opportunity to trim the weights in the portfolio,” he said. Analysts said charts are pointing to a 5% upmove in Oil India and a near 10% gain in ONGC from Thursday’s closing.

“Oil India has managed to hold its 50 DEMA (Double Exponential Moving Average) with a surge in trading volumes, which suggests more upside from the current level towards the ₹500 zones with immediate support at ₹460 levels,” said Chandan Taparia, head of derivatives and technical research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services

In the case of ONGC, the stock could move to ₹290-300. “The stock has been finding sustained buying interest near ₹262-265 zones in the last 10 sessions and a small follow-up could lead to the next leg of rally,” said Taparia.

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