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LeBron James Rumor Sparks a $245 Million Prediction-Market Frenzy After Miami Heat’s YouTube Mistake

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Milwaukee's Giannis Antetokounmpo drives to the basket past Boston's Robert Williams in the Bucks' 101-89 NBA playoff series-opening win over the Celtics

LeBron James has managed to move financial markets without saying a word, after an accidentally published Miami Heat video sent prediction-market trading tied to his still-undecided free agency surging past $245 million.

On Tuesday night, the Miami Heat’s official YouTube channel briefly published, then quickly deleted, a video titled “LeBron James Introductory Press Conference,” dated for later this month. A team spokesperson told the Miami Herald the posting was a mistake, made while the club prepared promotional materials in case James eventually chooses to sign with Miami this offseason. Shortly after removing the video, the team posted a job listing on LinkedIn for a director of YouTube strategy.

How the markets reacted

The brief video was enough to send betting activity on James’ eventual destination into overdrive. According to Fortune, combined trading tied to James’ next team has topped $245 million across the two largest prediction-market platforms, Kalshi and Polymarket, with more than $200 million of that volume concentrated on Kalshi alone. Yahoo Sports separately put the combined figure above $250 million.

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Before the Heat’s video appeared, Polymarket had priced Miami’s odds of landing James at 31.5%, trailing Cleveland by three percentage points. After the clip was deleted, Miami’s odds surged by roughly 20 points on Polymarket. Kalshi showed a similar swing, moving from around 37% to 47% before settling near 45% by Thursday afternoon, according to Yahoo Sports. Sports Illustrated reported that Miami entered Tuesday as a 39% favorite on Kalshi’s “LeBron Next Team” market before jumping to 51% by the end of the day following the video’s brief appearance.

A rapidly growing market

The scale of trading around James’ decision has expanded dramatically in just the past few weeks. According to Fortune, total volume on the market stood at just $76 million a short time earlier before climbing past $170 million, then surging further to more than $211 million on Kalshi alone within a matter of days. At one point, the market tracking James’ next team ranked as the third-largest in Kalshi’s history, trailing only contracts tied to the 2026 World Cup champion and a major political race.

No timeline from James or his camp

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James has offered no public timeline for his decision since departing the Los Angeles Lakers 24 days earlier, and his longtime agent, Rich Paul, has similarly declined to provide a date. According to Fortune, Paul said this week that nobody, including NBA Commissioner Adam Silver, knows exactly when the announcement will come. Sports Betting Dime reported that Paul described the timing in strikingly vague terms, saying the decision “could be 48 seconds, it could be 48 minutes,” while brushing aside pressure from the league to speed up the process.

A new kind of sports economy

Marty Conway, a sports business professor at Georgetown University, told Fortune that the episode reflects a broader shift in how fans and traders now engage with major sports storylines. “There’s a market for everything, and I think people have recognized that there’s a market for everything,” Conway said. “There are individuals in every pocket of that area who think they can either influence it, make a market in it, or take advantage of it.”

That shift has been dramatic in scale. According to Yahoo Sports, citing Pew Research Center data, monthly trading volume across Kalshi and Polymarket combined reached nearly $24 billion as of April, with sports traders now more active, and spending more, than those trading on any other single subject tracked by the platforms, including cryptocurrency and politics.

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A market the NBA has already flagged as risky

The scale and volatility of the James market has drawn direct concern from the NBA itself. Yahoo Sports reported that the league warned federal regulators about exactly this kind of contract in an April letter to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, in which NBA executive Dan Spillane argued that markets involving “player or team transactions” should be prohibited because they are “readily susceptible to manipulation and/or improper use of confidential information.”

The Heat’s accidental video posting illustrates a related but distinct risk that regulators and platforms have also had to grapple with: market-moving information reaching traders through an unintentional mistake, rather than any deliberate leak or insider activity. Yahoo Sports noted that Kalshi has previously disciplined a staff member for trading on markets tied to videos before their official release, and that Polymarket has partnered with blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis to help detect trading patterns that might suggest access to nonpublic information.

Comparisons to other athlete markets

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The scale of trading tied to James’ free agency dwarfs betting markets built around other athletes’ career decisions. According to Yahoo Sports, a Kalshi market tied to Kawhi Leonard drew roughly $760,000 in total trading volume, while separate markets tied to Bronny James, Kyle Tucker and NFL player Jaelan Phillips each attracted well under $1 million. Fortune noted that fewer than 30 Kalshi markets across any category have ever surpassed $100 million in total trading volume, underscoring how unusual the scale of interest in James’ decision has become.

As of Thursday afternoon, Miami’s odds of landing James stood near an even coin flip on both major platforms, with Cleveland, Golden State and Philadelphia continuing to register meaningful, if smaller, shares of the betting activity. Kalshi traders were pricing in roughly a 47% chance James would announce his decision before July 27, the date referenced in the deleted Heat video, and a 58% chance of an announcement before July 28.

With James still giving no indication of when he plans to make his choice, prediction-market activity tied to his free agency shows no sign of slowing, leaving traders, the NBA and the Heat’s own communications staff bracing for whatever comes next, whenever that turns out to be.

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Graduation outfits: Students tell us how to impress on a budget

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Person standing in a paved public square wearing a graduation gown and mortarboard with a tassel. A yellow dress is visible beneath the gown. Trees, ornamental grasses and stone buildings surround the square, with several people seated or walking in the background.

Like Keerthana, Alicia Munhupedzi used the internet to find her dress – though it was a bit last minute.

“I thought, ‘Where can I get a nice dress really quickly and cheaply?’”

The answer? Depop, the second-hand clothing app popular among Gen Z shoppers that sold for $1.2bn (£890m) earlier this year.

Like others, Alicia felt her outfit was important.

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“Graduation, it’s a milestone thing, especially if you’re not planning on doing a master’s,” she says. “So, to me, there was a pressure.”

So much so she couldn’t sleep properly the night before her ceremony and woke at dawn to get ready. “I made it through today off two hours of sleep, water, good vibes, energy and a coffee.”

Knowing all eyes would be fixed on her when she was handed her degree, Keerthana says she was nervous for her graduation ceremony – but it passed more quickly than she thought it might.

“This is the only moment you get for yourself,” she says.

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And was the 05:00 wake-up and two hours of getting ready worth it?

“Yeah,” Keerthana says, “I couldn’t compromise on that.”

Additional reporting by Kate Berry and George Sandeman.

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Cold brew recall issued by Brooklyn Roasting Company for botulism

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Cold brew recall issued by Brooklyn Roasting Company for botulism

A New York-based coffee company is recalling some of its cold brew drinks sold in New York and New Jersey because of a risk of botulism, according to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.

The Brooklyn Roasting Company issued the recall this month for 2.5 gallon bags of pasteurized cold brew concentrate after finding that room temperature storage could lead to the growth of Clostridium botulinum toxin formation.

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The affected products were distributed between April 1 and June 20, and they include best by dates between June 3 and Sept. 30.

CYCLOSPORA OUTBREAK: IS IT STILL SAFE TO EAT AT RESTAURANTS? HERE’S WHAT TO KNOW

two cold brew coffees in glasses

A New York-based coffee company is recalling some of its cold brew sold in New York and New Jersey because of a risk of botulism, according to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration. (Scott Suchman for The Washington Post via Getty Images; food styling by Lisa Cherkasky for The Washington Post via Getty Images / Getty Images)

Botulism is a rare condition caused by a toxin that attacks the body’s nerves, which can be fatal.

Symptoms of foodborne botulism usually start 12 to 36 hours later and include trouble swallowing, dry mouth, blurred vision, drooping eyelids, upset stomach, trouble breathing and paralysis.

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Anyone experiencing botulism symptoms is urged to go to the emergency room immediately.

Brooklyn Roasting Company location

A Brooklyn Roasting Company location on Flushing Avenue.  (Google Maps / Google Maps)

SCIENTISTS USED ELECTRICITY ON COFFEE AND DISCOVERED WHAT MAKES IT TASTE GOOD

There have been no reports of illnesses caused by the cold brew products.

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A sign for the Food And Drug Administration is seen outside of the headquarters

The FDA said there have not been any reported illnesses related to the product. ((Photo by Sarah Silbiger/Getty Images) / AP Newsroom)

The Brooklyn Roasting Company sells its products at its cafés, other coffee shops, gourmet grocery stores, independent markets and online, according to The Patch.

The company didn’t specify where the affected cold brew had been distributed.

The Brooklyn Roasting Company did not immediately respond to FOX Business’ request for comment.

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Appeals court rejects Trump bid to halt $100,000 H-1B visa fee ruling

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Appeals court rejects Trump bid to halt $100,000 H-1B visa fee ruling

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SB Financial Group, Inc. (SBFG) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

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OneWater Marine Inc. (ONEW) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript