Leonardo DiCaprio Eyes Second Oscar as ‘One Battle After Another’ Leads Tight 2026 Race

With the 98th Academy Awards set for Sunday evening, Leonardo DiCaprio stands poised for a potential second Oscar win, a decade after claiming his first for “The Revenant.” The actor’s commanding performance in Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another” has positioned him as a serious contender in the Best Actor category amid one of the most unpredictable races in recent memory.

DiCaprio portrays Bob Ferguson, a burnt-out former revolutionary hiding off the grid while protecting his daughter amid threats from a ruthless colonel played by Sean Penn. The film, released Sept. 26, 2025, by Warner Bros., blends political thriller elements with intense character drama, drawing loose inspiration from Thomas Pynchon’s “Vineland.” It earned widespread critical acclaim for its timely exploration of extremism, authoritarianism and personal redemption, landing among the top-nominated films with strong showings in major categories.

Critics have hailed DiCaprio’s work as a “masterclass in veteran acting,” praising the subtle emotional layers he brings to a morally complex war journalist-turned-fugitive. Outlets like Variety and The Hollywood Reporter note strong Academy support for the performance, with voters frequently citing it as a plausible upset pick despite the film’s box-office underperformance compared to its predecessor, “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.”

The Best Actor field remains fiercely competitive. Timothée Chalamet earned his third nomination for “Marty Supreme,” showcasing his range in a controversial ballet-centered role that made him the youngest three-time nominee since Marlon Brando. Michael B. Jordan surges with momentum from “Sinners,” which shattered nomination records with 16 nods and secured the cast award at the Actor Awards. Ethan Hawke (“Blue Moon”) and Wagner Moura (“The Secret Agent”) round out the nominees, each bringing formidable cases for their first wins.

Predictions vary widely. Some forecasters, including those at Variety and Deadline, see Jordan gaining late ground after his SAG win, while others highlight DiCaprio’s institutional advantage as a previous winner and consistent high-caliber performer. Rotten Tomatoes and Next Best Picture analyses place the race as unusually open, with no clear frontrunner dominating precursor awards. Betting markets reflect the volatility, with shifting odds among Chalamet, Jordan and DiCaprio.

DiCaprio’s campaign has faced logistical hurdles. He skipped the 2026 Actor Awards — formerly the SAG Awards — due to filming Martin Scorsese’s “What Happens at Night” in Europe alongside Jennifer Lawrence. Reports indicate he may also miss the Oscars ceremony for similar reasons, though speculation persists about a potential red-carpet appearance with girlfriend Vittoria Ceretti, marking their first joint major event.

“One Battle After Another” itself contends strongly for Best Picture, often ranked second behind “Sinners” in projections. Anderson’s direction earns praise for its radical epic scope and ensemble work, including Penn’s menacing supporting turn as Col. Steven J. Lockjaw. The film secured nominations across technical categories and screenplay, benefiting from its VistaVision and IMAX presentation that showcased Anderson’s ambitious vision.

Despite solid reviews and awards buzz, the movie’s theatrical run fell short of blockbuster expectations, a contrast to DiCaprio’s star-driven hits. Streaming availability on HBO Max since December 2025 broadened its reach, allowing more Academy voters to engage with the performance during the voting window.

DiCaprio’s Oscar history adds intrigue. His 2016 win ended a long nomination streak without victory, including nods for “The Wolf of Wall Street,” “The Aviator” and others. A second statue would place him among elite multi-winners, though the Academy has historically been selective about granting them. Analysts note that his “latter-day” mode — intense, transformative roles in auteur projects — aligns perfectly with Oscar tastes, yet the category’s youth movement and first-time winners could prove decisive.

The ceremony, hosted by Conan O’Brien at the Dolby Theatre, airs live on ABC and streams on Hulu. With “Sinners” leading nominations and potential for genre breakthroughs, the night promises drama across categories. DiCaprio’s absence from recent events has fueled questions about his attendance, but his work remains central to discussions.

As ballots finalize, the conversation around DiCaprio underscores his enduring status in Hollywood. Whether he claims a second Oscar or not, his contribution to “One Battle After Another” reinforces why he remains one of the industry’s most respected leading men.